Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[A Little Green]

Erm.. what the eff happened yesterDay? Also, it seems I've been barking up the wrong tree for two Days. Sorry Sally. But why Wilwa? What were the arguments against her? I should go back and check I suppose.

As for Nog - it's possible that the elves read his "Leave that to the Seer" -comments as hints. It's pretty paranoid but elves are bound to be. As for Nerwen's theory about him - well it's pretty clear that a Nog-Seer's second dream would have been phantom:

Originally Posted by Nog

Also, I think the phantom is innocent - and is no seer. If he wasn't dreamt of yet by the seer then now he is. So let's leave him be.

Which would logically mean that if the elves killed Nog as a potential Seer, phantom is innocent. It would be ingenious though for a phantomelf and his pack to kill Nog (who they would more or less know was not the Seer, but would be seen by the village as a potential one). A pretty perfect cover for a phantomelf. Then again, a) I still believe phantom is innocent, and b) the elves would have been plain crazy not trying to target the Seer last Night.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The other, very outside possibility is that he "dreamed" Greenie as an Elf– see #407. However, the fact that Nog said no more of this, and was more than happy to lynch someone else should have tipped the Elves off, not to mention the fact that his actual "hint" posts (#391, #400, #469, #480) were all about the phantom and Sally. Still, Elves do panic sometimes.

This logic doesn't make sense to me. I know I'm not an elf but I also know you can't know it. The thing is, it doesn't make sense even if I was an elf. It would take a ridiculously paranoid pack of elves to read #407 as a Seer hint, especially as Nog didn't behave towards me in a manner that would suggest him "knowing" I was an elf.

Back in a dash with a few responses to what was said yesterDay..

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by phantom

Are you always this optimistic? Because I almost want to suspect you for it, as it is usually quite difficult to convince me of my chances until something is nearly in the bag or the odds are stacked heavily in favor, and even then I tend to worry and fear the worst. Blast you and your different way of thinking!

Ahem. I seem to recall discussing this with you before. But yes, I do have a tendency to optimism, I see it as kind of essential in a game like this. You can't play werewolf with an attitude of "it doesn't matter what I do, the elves are going to win anyway".

Originally Posted by Shasta

Greenie, do you have a comment? Oh, I see you answered this very thing in #468. Hmm. This reply makes sense, but I'm not sure if it really has to do with Sally's point.

Well, that's how I understood it.. If you understood Sally's point differently, feel free to re-formulate it and I'll try to answer it as best I can.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

People who don't look so good:
Sally- As than the early rep-vote yesterDay, her responses just don't seem honest. However, because of the Lottie thing, I don't think she would be as likely to be an Elf, though there still is enough of a possibility for me to be willing to vote for her.
Wilwa- Everything she says makes me more convinced of her Elvishness. And she split her vote yesterDay when she could have used them both on Lottie, which seems like a very Elvsih thing to do, as I said earlier (She can cover herself by having voted an elf, but didn't use all her voting power to actually get her killed).

It's kind of curious that his list of "people who don't look so good" consists of the two main suspects of yesterDay, both of whom were lynched, both of whom turned out innocent. Maybe even too safe for an elf? I'd like to go back and have a look at when he started suspecting these two.

Originally Posted by phantom

Oh, I know you could, but I was just saying that it'd be more subtle and clever for you to just vote for someone likely to vote for me (as you did) and then use your three votes on someone no one has voted for (as you did) leaving the door wide open for me to be lynched. With two vocal anti-phantom reps (Foley & Shasta) you might've even bet on it. It just totally seems like something that I would do as a baddie. If you are a baddie- kudos for the scheme. If you're a goodie, I will have no choice but to fly to Europe after the game and punch you.

I find it rather amusing that you consider it a baddie's automatic top priority to get rid of you.