Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[Nerwen]

I'm looking at Nogrod here on the assumption that the wolves thought he was the Seer, which as we'll see he hinted at very heavily– with a view to working out who the wolves might have thought his dreams were. I've included his thoughts on dead players, because a "Seer" talking about players with known roles in the same terms as unknowns can be a clue about whether he's actually hinting. (Does that make sense?)

Nogrod, Day 1, first half.

#57.

Originally Posted by Nog.

This Sally - Lottie - tp triangle looks just a bit too obvious to be true. But the moral highground of Shasta - Nerwen - Lommy trio is kind of too neat as well. And the carefulness of Legate -Zil - Glirdy looks soo suspicious...

Suspicious of tp's promise not to lynch those who elect him.


#87. Discusses voting strategy. Wants multiple reps.


#88. Ditto.


#89. Ditto.


#102.

Originally Posted by Nog.

So how is it... tp has two votes (enough) and Lommy and Nerwen have one each?

I have nothing against those three ending up as representatives. Basically I have nothing against more or less ayone becoming a representative at this stage of the game: it would be interesting to learn more about everyone.

Rep-votes Izzy.


#104. Voting strategy. Frustrated at Mira.


#219. Very suspicious of phantom. Boro is "odd" and Legate's posting "makes him nervous".

Originally Posted by Nog

But I can say right now that you reps should have very strong reasons if you would lynch Shasta. It's not the fact that he argues against tp (tp might be innocent anyway), but it's the way he does it. I'd be almost as assured of Foley's innocence, but not just that much.

#244. Considers lynching phantom. Suspicious of Sally and Lottie. Doesn't like me, both for "attacking" Mira and "defending" Boro. Disputes Lommy's belief that SoE among the reps would be bad. Suspicious of Boro.


#246.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Great udders of relief! Kath is here, naturally - on technical terms - missing D1...

#250. Highly critical of phantom's explanations for his conduct.


#255. List. Suspects me, Boro, Lottie and the phantom. "50-50" about Sally; torn about Izzy; tends to trust Wilwa and Rune. Is slightly more suspicious of Shasta than before and less so of Legate.

Originally Posted by Nog

Mira I think was clearly someone who didn't read the thread - and as such not someone I would vote for a representative (another promise here) - and where Nerwen's attack on her looks like reeally bad.

257. Lists Celuien, Glirdy, Greenie, Kath, Steve and Inzil as those of whom he has little to say.

Comments: Who, then, could his "Night One dream" have been? It's difficult to say, and in fact it's possible the wolves didn't look too hard at Day One, since the hints on Day Two would likely have been enough to make them jump on him, as long as there was no glaring anomaly, such as proclaiming one of them an innocent. At a guess, it could be Lottie (Elf, obviously) or Mira (innocent)– this based on the way he overreacts to my very mild "attack" on her. He is, of course, also very suspicious of the phantom.


Nogrod, Day 2, first half.

#386. "I'm here".


#391. Sally posts suspiciously, but probably not an Elf because of Lottie's actions.

Originally Posted by Nog

Also, I think the phantom is innocent - and is no seer. If he wasn't dreamt of yet by the seer then now he is. So let's leave him be. Also, if I'm right in what he is doing he makes perfect sense in his own way we all should be used to.

#393.

Originally Posted by Nog

phantom: Just a question. What if your initial premise is wrong? I'm somehow getting more and more worried it might be... I mean you have a decent quess there but the world might work differently.

#400. Virtually a repeat of #391. Again argues that Sally is innocent because of Lottie's vote, and says of phantom:

Originally Posted by Nog

phantom's actions just cry for the seer to dream of him. And looking at the mess he has managed to make - two Days more or less talking only about him - would make the seer more or less irresponsible if s/he didn't dream of him and check him.

If you think you are bored to talk about tp then let him be and leave him to the seer.

#405. Considers who to vote for rep. Would have liked Rune, except that his drunkenness would give him an "alibi", making his lynch-vote hard to read. Legate "observant" but hard to read. Tends to trust Lommy for her vote and because "her frustrations felt genuine".


#407.

Originally Posted by Nog

Welcome to the club!

I could actually return the amazement... and the implications.

#410. Votes Legate for rep.



Nogrod, Day 2, second half.

#454. Thinks Sally and tp innocent, wants to check Lottie's other contacts.


#469. After checking, agrees with me that she didn't really have any. Explains belief that Sally and tp should be left to the Seer in vague terms:

Originally Posted by Nog

Well, so far (from the mid of D1 about) I have been guided by an interpretation of the general situation that points it being wiser to check them and not lynch them right away.

Makes a case for Wilwa's being an Elf.


#475. Wilwa suspicious. Rune's composure might be Elvish. "Needs to look" at Zil and Cel.

Originally Posted by Nog

Sally I would leave to the seer as I said before. Someone actually noted that it might take a few Days before the seer comes out - that's just the better, for that would mean more information.

#480. Analyses Cel. Finds her less worrying than before. Replies to Shasta:

Originally Posted by Nog

Tell me Shasta, why not to wait for the seer and be cool with it? Give me one good reason. And first of all think...

#485.

phantom: stop that "I'm the known orc and everyone's having a conspiracy to lynch me" -parade, please.

#489. Agrees with Shasta that there is a possible bandwagon on Wilwa, but still finds her the best option.


#491. QUotes rules about the OoUA, bolding the following passage.

Originally Posted by Nog

You all know the choice has been made toDay.

#492. Votes to lynch Wilwa. (Wilwa 2)

Comments: Based on this, it looks as if his supposed Night 2 dream was either Sally (innocent) or the phantom (innocent)– the latter would be the most logical, especially given how much Nogrod had suspected him the Night before (although the same is true of Sally to a lesser extent).

By innocent here I just mean "non-Elf", since I am trying to look at this from the Elvish point of view, and they of course only know who they are. (As a little side-note, though, if I'm right in guessing the wolves think or thought of phantom as a possible OoUA, Nog's cryptic post at #491 might have been taken as confirmation of this.)

There is one point against all this: Nogrod's post at #485, where he tells phantom to stop saying he's a known Orc– is that something a Seer would say to a person he'd dreamed?

The other, very outside possibility is that he "dreamed" Greenie as an Elf– see #407. However, the fact that Nog said no more of this, and was more than happy to lynch someone else should have tipped the Elves off, not to mention the fact that his actual "hint" posts (#391, #400, #469, #480) were all about the phantom and Sally. Still, Elves do panic sometimes.

EDIT:X'd since my last post.

[A Little Green]

Erm.. what the eff happened yesterDay? Also, it seems I've been barking up the wrong tree for two Days. Sorry Sally. But why Wilwa? What were the arguments against her? I should go back and check I suppose.

As for Nog - it's possible that the elves read his "Leave that to the Seer" -comments as hints. It's pretty paranoid but elves are bound to be. As for Nerwen's theory about him - well it's pretty clear that a Nog-Seer's second dream would have been phantom:

Originally Posted by Nog

Also, I think the phantom is innocent - and is no seer. If he wasn't dreamt of yet by the seer then now he is. So let's leave him be.

Which would logically mean that if the elves killed Nog as a potential Seer, phantom is innocent. It would be ingenious though for a phantomelf and his pack to kill Nog (who they would more or less know was not the Seer, but would be seen by the village as a potential one). A pretty perfect cover for a phantomelf. Then again, a) I still believe phantom is innocent, and b) the elves would have been plain crazy not trying to target the Seer last Night.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The other, very outside possibility is that he "dreamed" Greenie as an Elf– see #407. However, the fact that Nog said no more of this, and was more than happy to lynch someone else should have tipped the Elves off, not to mention the fact that his actual "hint" posts (#391, #400, #469, #480) were all about the phantom and Sally. Still, Elves do panic sometimes.

This logic doesn't make sense to me. I know I'm not an elf but I also know you can't know it. The thing is, it doesn't make sense even if I was an elf. It would take a ridiculously paranoid pack of elves to read #407 as a Seer hint, especially as Nog didn't behave towards me in a manner that would suggest him "knowing" I was an elf.

Back in a dash with a few responses to what was said yesterDay..

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by phantom

Are you always this optimistic? Because I almost want to suspect you for it, as it is usually quite difficult to convince me of my chances until something is nearly in the bag or the odds are stacked heavily in favor, and even then I tend to worry and fear the worst. Blast you and your different way of thinking!

Ahem. I seem to recall discussing this with you before. But yes, I do have a tendency to optimism, I see it as kind of essential in a game like this. You can't play werewolf with an attitude of "it doesn't matter what I do, the elves are going to win anyway".

Originally Posted by Shasta

Greenie, do you have a comment? Oh, I see you answered this very thing in #468. Hmm. This reply makes sense, but I'm not sure if it really has to do with Sally's point.

Well, that's how I understood it.. If you understood Sally's point differently, feel free to re-formulate it and I'll try to answer it as best I can.

Originally Posted by Eonwe

People who don't look so good:
Sally- As than the early rep-vote yesterDay, her responses just don't seem honest. However, because of the Lottie thing, I don't think she would be as likely to be an Elf, though there still is enough of a possibility for me to be willing to vote for her.
Wilwa- Everything she says makes me more convinced of her Elvishness. And she split her vote yesterDay when she could have used them both on Lottie, which seems like a very Elvsih thing to do, as I said earlier (She can cover herself by having voted an elf, but didn't use all her voting power to actually get her killed).

It's kind of curious that his list of "people who don't look so good" consists of the two main suspects of yesterDay, both of whom were lynched, both of whom turned out innocent. Maybe even too safe for an elf? I'd like to go back and have a look at when he started suspecting these two.

Originally Posted by phantom

Oh, I know you could, but I was just saying that it'd be more subtle and clever for you to just vote for someone likely to vote for me (as you did) and then use your three votes on someone no one has voted for (as you did) leaving the door wide open for me to be lynched. With two vocal anti-phantom reps (Foley & Shasta) you might've even bet on it. It just totally seems like something that I would do as a baddie. If you are a baddie- kudos for the scheme. If you're a goodie, I will have no choice but to fly to Europe after the game and punch you.

I find it rather amusing that you consider it a baddie's automatic top priority to get rid of you.