Werewolf LXXXI: Under the Misty Mountains

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Sally

Frankly, dear, I do not want Vanilwa as a representative. I'd be okay with Nog, certainly, and I guess I could acquiesce to Nerwen being a choice, but not Wilwa.

Well then, I certainly won't vote Wilwa. And of course I would prefer that Nerwen not be a rep considering the two-pronged fact that she was a Rep yesterday already and she's been after me today, so I'll totally beg for you not to vote for her. Please?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Well then, I certainly won't vote Wilwa. And of course I would prefer that Nerwen not be a rep considering the two-pronged fact that she was a Rep yesterday already and she's been after me today, so I'll totally beg for you not to vote for her. Please?

Why do you think I'm unhappy about Shasta being a rep? Not only does he suspect me, I think he's pretty darn evil. Flip-flopping orc, maybe?

Anyway, I likely won't vote her. I'd be happier with Nog anyway.

[the phantom]

Ah well, it's good to hear that.

Should you vote Nog I would hold my vote until close to the deadline in case Cel or Mira rushes in and can agree to combine votes to make a Rep out of you. And in the end, one way or the other, I won't waste my rep vote.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by the phantom

Ah well, it's good to hear that.

Should you vote Nog I would hold my vote until close to the deadline in case Cel or Mira rushes in and can agree to combine votes to make a Rep out of you. And in the end, one way or the other, I won't waste my rep vote.

Heh. I was totally going to wait and see if I could get you into power.

Seriously, though....

++Noggins to protect our noggins

[the phantom]

THE REPS:
Steve
Legate
Shasta
Foley
Nog

STILL TO VOTE:
Kath
Mira
Celuien
Foley
Phantom

I would like to see Nog get seconded and combine my vote with someone else to elect Sally. Anyone else around?

(EDIT: x-post, Nog is now a Rep. Now I just have to see if Mira, Cel, or Kath is willing to vote for Sally.)

[satansaloser2005]

If you can't get someone else in power would you consider thirding Nog?

[the phantom]

I was going to third Legate actually.

[the phantom]

For Rep-

++ Legate

REP VOTING:

Nerwen for Shasta
Rune for Steve
Green for Steve (2)
Nog for Legate
Steve for Legate (2)
Lommy for Nog
Inzil for Shasta (2)
Wilwa for Foley
Legate for Foley (2)
Shasta for Nerwen
Sally for Nog (2)
Phantom for Legate (3)

THE REPS:
Steve
Legate (3)
Shasta
Foley
Nog

DID NOT VOTE:
Kath
Mira
Celuien
Foley

[the phantom]

Okay. That's it for now. Things to do.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Your reps are:

Steve (2)
Legate (3)
Shasta (2)
Foley (2)
Nog (2)

[Nerwen]

Lottie, Sally and phantom– the votes

I'm just looking at the early part of Day One, up until phantom got his first two rep votes. Apologies for the length of this, but I think it's important to quote many of these posts in full.


#3. Banter from Lottie.


#4.Sally votes phantom for rep in her first post– rest is banter.


#5.

Originally Posted by Lottie

That's a lot of red text, Sallycake. Written in blood, per'aps?

#6. Zil queries it.


#7.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Lottie and Inzil- why have you not voted me for representative yet?

Nice to see at least Sally knows how to do this thing properly.

#8.

Originally Posted by Sally

Only if you got careless last Night, my dear Lottiepop.

Well, if he's good, I'll trust his judgement (for toDay, anyway). If he's evil, I trust him to not be stupid enough to do something like lynch the seer on Day One. It's a win-win from my perspective, as he either is good and tries to do something helpful or he's evil and isn't dumb enough to do something horribly destructive....yet.

EDIT: x'd with our beloved shadow itself....or, as I call it, BS

#9. (Response to Sally)

Originally Posted by Lottie

This makes sense, and looks rather innocent of you, but I'm going be around, so Phantom, no vote for you.

Note this– originally Lottie was not planning to vote phantom. What changed her mind?


#10.

Originally Posted by phantom

To be perfectly frank, with sides as they are (only one gifted goodie) I would as a baddie most certainly try to off the Seer with a Day 1 lynch. It'd totally be worth it, and I'm sure I could disguise my intentions well enough to get away with it. I'm just daring and awesome like that.

Ah, but lucky for most of you I am not a baddie. Or, erm, I should say that I am a baddie, seeing as the enemies in this community are good guys. What do you folks think- should we reverse our terms for the sake of accuracy? It's rather weird to refer to the species that exists to kill and rape as the "good" side.

And Lottie, really, there is no need to delay. Every last villager is going to vote me as representative today, as it would entertain the mods as well as be historic and funny. As a matter of fact, it wouldn't surprise me if I received all the rep votes every day of the contest. If the Sons win then all the orcs can say, "That blasted Phantom didn't vote well and lost it for us! Let's make fun of him!" And that would be great fun, of course. Or if the Sons lose then all the orcs can say, "Ha- I chose my rep well, didn't I?" And that would be fun as well.

Note: Compare the text I've bolded in that post to this:

Originally Posted by The narration– description of the OoUA

As such, this latter orc watched every other little goblin tremble with fear of the legendary Sons of Elrond and their minions, and thought a little guiltily that maybe they all deserved whatever they got.

#11. (Response to phantom).

Originally Posted by Me

Ya hoi! What's this, lads? An Elf-friend in our midst?

#12.

Originally Posted by Sally

I'll make everyone cookies if this happens. (Assuming Phantom pays the postage to mail them, of course, 'cause Sally is poor.)

And actually, sir, you do have a point. Stupidly, I'd looked over the rules and roles and then promptly forgotten them. So yes, you would do that, but you'd at least be classy about it, so you're still worth the vote.

Note: If Lottie and Sally were fellows, I think Lottie could have taken this post as a cue: "Yeah, go ahead and vote him!"


#13. Sally comments on narration: banter.


#14. (Response to phantom at #10– same post quoted by Sally)

Originally Posted by Lottie

Or, of course, you turn out to be evil and utterly destroy us all. And then we can all go "oh, that Phantom!" and we'd all be having a right good time!

#15. (Response to Sally at #15.)

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Now, this is what I don't understand, my lass: why do you think one of these filthy Elves or their sneaking friends wouldn't want to murder our Seer first chance they get, no matter how the rules work exactly? Because they'll give 'emselves away? Nah! There's four of 'em, remember?

#16. Long IC post by Boro. Disputes the phantom's claim that we should view the Elves as the good guys.


#17.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Come now, Boro- what's with all the useless justification?

Face it- we orcs are evil. We were created for it. We can't be punished for the sins of our fathers? You know good and well that we'd commit those same sins if given the chance. If everyone keeps trying to paint Elrond's sons as the baddies here I'm going to start being deliberately unhelpful in disgust.

We orcs are the vicious and cruel baddies, and we're going to kill Elrond's sons and their helpers, NOT out of some sort of misplaced sense of justification, but because it's what we do, and we enjoy it!! We're going to capture them, and hurt them, and deliver their bodies one piece at a time back to their father, and their grandmother in Lorien. I say we work on plans to use them to draw her out of her woods. Heh heh heh... Oh the things we would do to that elf-queen.

PS If you haven't voted me as your representative yet, please do so. Let's make history.

Note again the bolded text. Isn't it rather likely that Lottielf interpreted this as an offer of support from the Unknown Orc?


#18.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Well no, but I would have a good time, so it all balances out, yes? So yeah, um, vote for me. Vote for me now.

Need a second opinion? Let's ask Emperor Palpatine-

Emperor Palpatine: "Do it!"

#19.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I'm honestly considering it...I won't be able to get online until an hour before DL, and I'll probably not have much time to catch up, much less form opinions, and it is Day 1, after all...you know what, fine.

++The Puddintom for Representative

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

So. Lottielf (see #9) seems to have begun the Day with no intention of following Sally's vote. She changes her mind only after heavy urging from the phantom (see everything), apparently supported by Sally (see #12).

I think it not unlikely one of these two is Lottie's fellow. My guess is that it might be Sally, and that Lottie, and perhaps Sally as well, took phantom's post at #10 as a pledge of loyalty from the Unknown Orc. Then perhaps Lottie took Sally's post at #12 as a signal that it was OK to vote phantom. (Note that in each case it could have been a misinterpretation– that doesn't matter.)

That is all speculation, of course– I could be completely out in all this. The point I am making is that Lottie and Sally's voting patterns are not the massive obstacle to a Sallyelf theory that they've been taken as.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by the phantom

I checked the admin thread, and there Foley says she won't be here at all today and only for the last couple hours tomorrow. Well well- I wonder what she'll say to being made a Rep under her circumstances.

Crap, indeed, actually now I see that I have read it, should've remembered that. Well, I hope she's around at least a bit still...

We have a bit fewer Representatives now, which is a pity, on the other hand, the numbers might possibly get thinner as the village gets smaller - which can be dangerous as well.

Originally Posted by the phantom

Okay, I've been thinking, and besides giving Nog a second vote or giving Sally a try, I'm considering giving Wilwa a second chance to prove herself. Anyone else up for that?

I just started to think - as I was reading through these - that now actually it will be a time to start looking for possible reps lifting SoE to Rep positions toDay. Of course, we know very little, but let me just remark to this now. This raised my attention this time, as Wilwa's record is somewhat suspicious from my pov (see above), and of course in combination with phantom, who I think even as a SoE would be bold enough to vote his fellows for Reps rather openly, this might be a way of "circulating SoE among the Reps" - i.e. one day tp is there, the other day it's him voting wilwa, basically making sure there's at least somebody every Day. Same could go even for phantom-sally if sally is a SoE after all, there of course might be more to it then basic "repayment for what you did for me yesterday". Nonetheless, phantom in the end didn't vote them, but only because there wasn't anymore the option for him. But let me say this even generally: if there is some "circulation of Reps" in the future (A votes B, B votes C, C votes A or something like that), especially on the later Days when the village is smaller, then that should definitely be noted.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I think it not unlikely one of these two is Lottie's fellow. My guess is that it might be Sally, and that Lottie, and perhaps Sally as well, took phantom's post at #10 as a pledge of loyalty from the Unknown Orc. Then perhaps Lottie took Sally's post at #12 as a signal that it was OK to vote phantom. (Note that in each case it could have been a misinterpretation– that doesn't matter.)

That is all speculation, of course– I could be completely out in all this. The point I am making is that Lottie and Sally's voting patterns are not the massive obstacle to a Sallyelf theory that they've been taken as.

This "review" was actually quite good and helped me to once again think of the situation there better. I must say that Nerwen is right here that indeed the double-vote from both sally and Lottie is not so improbable to have been from two SoE. Still, just the sort of general, well, perhaps probability, makes it easier for me to imagine sally as innocent. Also the chance of Lottie seeing a phUndecidedOrc here - still, we cannot determine for sure whether even in such a case, it really was a signal, or if Lottie really reacted just based on that. To me, at least, interpretating this as "signal" sounds rather farfetched - but then again, Nerwen thinks so and I am not Lottie, and maybe she might have thought similarly to Nerwen? Well, another of many points to consider in relation to, sigh, the phantom (I would like some time to get some points to consider about somebody else!).

It would have been perhaps good to likewise analyse Mira's relation to the whole subject, as the last phantom-voter, but actually, she hasn't been around so much now, has she? Actually, there were quite many people who were not so active during the first half of toDay - I would like to see them further, if it's possible. People like Kath, or Celuien (would really like to look at her now that I have considered her votes)...

Generally, a few thoughts on people after this: considering all I said now, it once again shifts my view of tp even a bit more to the innocent side - or, at most, thinking (if Nerwen's interpretation was correct) that tp could be the undecided orc, if not innocent (basically, not Lottie's fellow, that was the point). I am still thinking quite good of Nerwen, although of course the whole post could have been made to further frame innocent sally or on the other hand, make us think Lottie and phantom are not fellows. Considering how Nerwen and tp have been upon each other, though, it would be curious to find them fellow Wolves - on the other hand, perhaps in circumstances we have, especially if you do not need to become a Rep yourself, you can go into large-scale fights with your packmate and still not worry about it, as long as you don't get into the position where you should vote for them.

I am quite happy with the Reps we have, especially Steve I still trust quite a lot, Folwren (if she is around) also seemed okay. I actually haven't focused on shasta much this far, perhaps this is a good time and good chance to start. Nog is nice choice too, although I don't have particular opinions on him in this game, but then again, I think if I had, it would have meant that I found something suspicious about him, which I did not.

Off for a while, will be back in several hours. Looking forward to see some posts... May The Phorc Not Be Among Them in excessive amount.

[Thinlómien]

I'm back...

The rep pool seems nice, a good mix of people whom I trust (Legate), almost trust (Nog, Foley, Steve) and don't trust (Shasta). What doesn't seem nice, though, is the fact that so many people didn't vote. We don't really need that in a village where two ordos have already been modfired...

Originally Posted by Greenie

Eh? How can you be fishy in an innocent way?

Well, sometimes people seem kind of weird or suspicious but they just do it the way that you start thinking they are probably just weird innocents. However, you need not worry about that so much because currently I'm actually thinking Wilwa is fishy in a not-so-innocent way...

Today I'm going to
- reread what happened on the latter half of yesterDay after I left and try to draw conclusions
- decide whom I find suspicious and lobby for their death

But I'm warning you I have seemingly caught a flu and if it's the same one Agan had a week ago I may yet develop a high fever to make myself very ineffective. Currently feeling quite fine though so probably trying to get something done right now...


edit: celled with Nerwie

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I wouldn't want to depend too much on my own reasoning there, either to discount phantom as an SoE or show Sally must be one– as I said, it's just speculation.

Barring Seer reveals, this game is all about speculation, isn't it? I'm not saying Sally must be an elf, but her behaviour really makes me suspect she is - and when you gave a more or less logical explanation as to why she and Lottie could have been elves together after all I naturally felt inclined to agree with it. Does that make sense?

Nerwen, if you're still around: who are your top suspects and why?

Also, yay for Kath's reappearance!

[Nogrod]

Thank you for your trust. I'll try to be worth it. But as you probably know, I need to vote about four hours before the DL the latest so I'm not able to be there around the DL (that being 4am) as I have an early morning call tomorrow.

I have now read all there is. I will take stuff to my memorystick and head back home soon and then do some thinking there to come back to this pub later in the evening - as I don't think I should sit here for eight hours drinking beer and end up worse than Rune would have been were he made a representative...

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm not saying Sally must be an elf, but her behaviour really makes me suspect she is - and when you gave a more or less logical explanation as to why she and Lottie could have been elves together after all I naturally felt inclined to agree with it.

The problem here is that there is also another logical explanation. So let's leave this matter to the seer, honestly.

We might do with an analysis also on Lottie's relations to everyone, not only an analysis that has been limited to this predetermined supposition of Sally - Lottie - phantom forming a triangle. If I'm correct in thinking that Sally & tp are innocents then I could see the SoE's be more than happy to keep up the impression that S & tp are tied to Lottie and should be only be handled in the context of their relation to Lottielf. So we should also check Lottie's other contacts...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If I'm correct in thinking that Sally & tp are innocents then I could see the SoE's be more than happy to keep up the impression that S & tp are tied to Lottie and should be only be handled in the context of their relation to Lottielf. So we should also check Lottie's other contacts...

Except she doesn't really have any. I just read through Day One. She posts plenty, but all she does is defend her vote for phantom, and defend phantom himself. Over and over.

Someone needs to work from the other direction– what people said about her, and to her. But I'm just too tired now to do it myself.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Barring Seer reveals, this game is all about speculation, isn't it? I'm not saying Sally must be an elf, but her behaviour really makes me suspect she is - and when you gave a more or less logical explanation as to why she and Lottie could have been elves together after all I naturally felt inclined to agree with it. Does that make sense?

Yes.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Nerwen, if you're still around: who are your top suspects and why?

Oh, Sally, of course. And after her, those shady characters Xed and Mira– though of course there's not much to go on with either of them. And maybe Wilwa on Day One, now that I've looked at her, though not as Sally's partner. And maybe Zil, though that's for something very slight.

And I haven't ruled out the phantom yet, either.

[Nerwen]

Wilwa, Day One (first half)
#86. Long post about how we should arrange the voting– thinks we should have many reps, with none having more than two votes.


#94. More on voting. Will not talk about tp "because Day 1s are always about him". Does not like Sally and Lottie's votes, but does not find either of them suspicious: "they enjoy doing crazy things". Will not rep-vote them, though. Likes Lommy, Legate, Boro, Nog and Greenie.


#119. Will make vote-count.


#121. Vote-count. Advises that nobody should give tp a fourth vote, and that the votes in general should be spread out.


#127. Defends her voting-plan against Steve's criticism. Might vote Nog, Lommy, Boro, Legate, Greenie, Izzy, Zil or me. (i.e. half the village!) Will decide later. Will be around at DL.


#129. Asks Fea if all reps automatically get 2 votes.


#135Declines to vote phantom, again defends her plan to Steve.


#157. Vote count. Will not vote for anyone without a vote already, in case it goes to waste. Now considering Boro or Lommy. Finds tp's vote for Cel "a tad odd", but does not object, as she likes the idea of voting some quiet people.


#159. Votes Lommy "Because I agreed with her today, and she's a very logical person, so I trust her to make a good choice."


#164, #167. Minor argument'clarification request about the voting rules.


#169.Wants to elect quiet players.


#170, #176. Banter with Fea.

#181. Suspects Foley confused Zil and Izzy. (This was the case.)


#186. Banter about votes. Will be back later.




Wilwa, Day One (second half)

#220. Is back.

#227. Is having computer problems.


#258. Banter with Fea. Phantom is being silly. Defends her voting-plan.

Has no idea who to vote; asks for suggestions:

Originally Posted by Wilwa

If the people who voted me in (Boro and Izzy right?) could like write my name in all caps and bold it (WILWA) like so, so that I can see it, and then say who they want to vote for, I'll take those suggestions into consideration and likely go for one of those, because I haven't been around enough to make much of an informed decision, unfortunately, and likely won't have the time too, and since there is going to be so few votes I don't want to make it random, so I'd rather go off their more informed opinions.

#289. Agrees with Xed that phantom isn't suspicious:

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Especially in games like this, where the dynamic is different, he waltzes in with some idea along the lines of "I'm the bestest and the smartest, do what I say and we win", so we really can't suspect him for that.

Of Sally and Lottie:

Originally Posted by Wilwa

I hearts them greatly *snuggles*, but would be willing to lynch them both. At the moment the way Lottie defended Phantom so much earlier seemed strange to me (I think it was Nerwen she was talking back and forth with, and the whole exchange was just so weird), so I'd be leaning more towards her, she just seems so sneaky.

Fine with Boro, with give Glirdan a pass for the moment, likes Xed, Shasta and Nog. Neutral about everyone else.


#295. Banter. Defends phantom.


#297. Vote count. Notes that phantom's vote will probably decide the lynch.


#298. Casts a vote each for Lottie and Sally.

Comments: Wilwa posts a lot without saying much; general tone of breathless gaiety is reminiscent of her wolf-style; only starts suspecting Lottie when the latter is clearly in trouble. So yeah, she might be a wolf– but surely only if Sally isn't, because otherwise voting them both would be an insane risk.

EDIT: typo.

[Thinlómien]

Nerwen's analysis doesn't really make Wilwa look any better in my eyes. However, what I'd love to do is going through Lottie's relations with others, but somehow I'm not sure I have the energy. Blah. I'm off to reread the last hours of Day1, and then I will hopefully either gather my thoughts about people or possibly try the Lottie-thing. If someone feels up to analysis, though, that would be a lovely thing to do. *hint hint*

edit: xed with Nerwen

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Celery

And no, Noggie and Lommie, I'm not playing a phorc phiddle... but I do find it fun to be in-role as an orc. *throws disgusting and probably questionably procured items in a bubbling cauldron of smelly stew* If suspicion of me is only based on being in role, that's interesting, and will place my eye in the direction of said suspectors.

It's not based on that. It's a general feeling I can't shake which is based on your playing style. Something is off there. I know these kind of suspicions are very annoying for the recipient because you can't really defend yourself against them, but I don't have anything else against you atm.

Funny that the two whom phantom wanted to see dead yesterDay ended up modfired toDay... Phantom dear, are you sure you haven't been bribing our moddesses?

Unless both Sally and Lottie are wolves, then wolf-phantom would've been wise to change his mind about Sally a bit earlier on and voted her and saved Lottie. This makes him seem more innocent (until/unless sally is proved a wolf, which wouldn't be that big a surprise). Also, he seems too impassionate in the end of the voting on Day1 to have any serious interest on the income, which he would've had had he been a wolf with (just) Lottie.

Okay I think I will make some sort of a summary about what I feel about people...

[Eönwë]

I'm sorry, I haven't had much of a chance to get online at all today, and when I have tried to go on this thread I had the time to do more than read.

I'm catching up now, but here are some of my thoughts so far:


Won't vote for:
Shasta- He seems to speak sense in an innocent way. Though I thought he was evil on early Day 1. I definitely need to reread his posts when I get a chance.
Lommy- Seems a little less innocent than yesterDay, but still makes sense and says a lot that I agree with.
Greenie- Not so sure about her. She felt very innocent yesterDay, but she doesn't so much toDay. She'll be another for me to reread.
Legate- He does seem a bit unclear/abstract at times, but I don't think he's evil.
Phantom- However much he's annoyed me, I can't actually see him being evil.
Inzil- I can never read him, but so far I can't see anything bad about him.
Rune- Just looks like he's having a bit of fun (and isn't that what this is about?), in an innocentish way.

Haven't seen enough:
Kath
Celuien
Mira
Foley- She's been around more than the ones above, but I can't really get a read on her yet.
Nog- See Foley, and he doesn't seem any more suspicious to me than usually does.

No idea (so most likely won't vote just yet):
Nerwen- Not sure whether I like or dislike her, but she's leaning innocent for now.

People who don't look so good:
Sally- As than the early rep-vote yesterDay, her responses just don't seem honest. However, because of the Lottie thing, I don't think she would be as likely to be an Elf, though there still is enough of a possibility for me to be willing to vote for her.
Wilwa- Everything she says makes me more convinced of her Elvishness. And she split her vote yesterDay when she could have used them both on Lottie, which seems like a very Elvsih thing to do, as I said earlier (She can cover herself by having voted an elf, but didn't use all her voting power to actually get her killed).

edit: fixed formatting and Xed with many (including 3 votes for Xed), though that doesn't matter since I haven't caught up fully anyway.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Legate

If I wanted to lynch you, I could have done so by myself anyway.

Oh, I know you could, but I was just saying that it'd be more subtle and clever for you to just vote for someone likely to vote for me (as you did) and then use your three votes on someone no one has voted for (as you did) leaving the door wide open for me to be lynched. With two vocal anti-phantom reps (Foley & Shasta) you might've even bet on it. It just totally seems like something that I would do as a baddie. If you are a baddie- kudos for the scheme. If you're a goodie, I will have no choice but to fly to Europe after the game and punch you.

Originally Posted by Legate

Aside from that, you are getting rather paranoid

The threat of being lynched tends to do that to someone.

But I did read your explanation and I do concede that it may be true that you did not remember that Foley wouldn't be able to be here much. I'm fairly certain that I didn't remember that fact until late in the day myself. But you still had to have remembered that if you could take one thing away from her the first day, it was "I don't like Phantom". So still... bleh... but this will be something to revisit when people know more, especially if the voting goes precisely as I outlined.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I don't at all like the way Legate has voted today. Especially for Celuien, of all people, who's made all of, what, eight posts? More the point, he voted specifically to save Sally, which makes me want to lynch her more. I'm not really agreeing with the suspicion of Wilwa right now - the most suspicious thing that has stood out for me is actually her most recent post, where she basically begs for her life.

++Sally++

Up to Eonwe now (and Foley but I don't think she's going to be around... something I think Legate actually knew).

[the phantom]

Mira- are you around? I would love to hear any and every random thought you have. If you stay quiet it will be too easy for goodie and baddie alike to go along with lynching you, and combined with your lack of posts the lynch would be largely useless for future application.

Celuien- can you post as well?