WW LXXX: It's About Time!

[Loslote]

Right, well, participation from me is going to be hopefully a bit more than yesterDay, but still not that much. So a list:

Looks best:
Agan
Pitch
Boro
Sally
Lottie

Looks decent:
Greenie
skip
Eomer

I dunno...*suspicious eyes*:
Nerwen
Vanilwuffin
Fea

I might vote for those in my "dunno" category. I might vote for those in my "decent" category. I probably will not vote for those in my "best" category, but things may change. I will also probably go to sleep soon, but I hope to be online a bit more often.

[skip spence]

Making a quick pop-in.

To be honest I'm glad to be alive seeing how yesterDay unfolded. Had the nagging feeling the wolves might be coming for me, poor thing.

I do have some thoughts to share but that will probably have to wait until I'm back from work, which is hopefully not that late.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

I might vote for those in my "dunno" category. I might vote for those in my "decent" category. I probably will not vote for those in my "best" category, but things may change. I will also probably go to sleep soon, but I hope to be online a bit more often.

And I hope you'll actually explain why you've put people in each category. No, it's not that you (sort of) suspect me, it's that I don't like lists without analysis on principle.

[Aganzir]

Aww.

Originally Posted by wilwa

why would the cobbler think it was hint, it's too out in the open to be taken seriously

One doesn't have to take it seriously, it can be more like making oneself known. Yes I know it was day 1 and it's not too unusual for people to complain about having no suspects, but comments like that still creep me out.

Originally Posted by wilwa

I doubt the wolves care enough about them to risk hinting.

Me too. However, being useful to the wolves requires the cobbler to survive (or take the bullet for them), and that's best done if the wolves don't attack her. It's much more likely that the cobbler tries to let the wolves know who she is than the other way round (thus I'm still somewhat disturbed by skip's plead that somebody behave suspiciously).

Originally Posted by sally

or if she has a more specific reason to not want people communicating covertly.

And what might this reason be?

Originally Posted by sally

Boro is up to something, as always. Need to figure out what it is before I shove him off a cliff, as he may be completely innocent. But if the cobbler turns up dead come Morning....o_O

I don't get this. Is Borowolf known for accidentally killing the cobbler or what?

Originally Posted by sally

She knows I have a job, and that I can't post during my work time.

Actually, I didn't. Or, well, I did but it wasn't anything I'd think of actively, and I didn't know you were working right then, so if you don't post I merely think "she doesn't post" instead of "why doesn't she post?".

Originally Posted by sally

to say she wants me dead before I can joke around, when I haven't even begun to do so, is really odd, especially for her.

Nope, I don't think so. I was voting for somebody I consider a submarine - not post count wise, but serious content wise. That sounds much ruder than it should, but I can't think of a better way to put it. I just usually have a hard time figuring you out (and telling the jokes from the serious stuff), so if I have to make a more or less random vote on day 1, you are not out of the question.
In any case, sally reacted unnecessarily strongly to my vote.

I think skip's reasoning for his vote looks awfully fishy, but being the first to vote for a wolf makes him look better. We can't obviously rule out the option that a wolf voted for EW, but I find it unlikely that a wolf would've started a bandwagon against a fellow.

Sally voted for Pitch after the first EW vote was cast. Back then it wasn't obvious yet that EW would be lynched, but if she was a wolf, wouldn't she rather have voted for somebody who already had a vote (Greenie maybe, as she said she'd keep an eye on her. Fea had more votes but she had already said the bandwagon against her was fishy)? She misunderstood the deadline, though, and if the day had ended when she thought it did, Fea would've died.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Agan, thank you for confusing me.

The pleasure is mine.

Originally Posted by wilwa

"Yay, a suspect, Inzil doesn't contribute all day and when he shows up all he does is give us the DL time".

♥

Fea's (random-ish) vote pushed EW to the lead, and EW countered by voting her. Speaks rather strongly in her favour. Also, I've seen wolves pretend to be confused about their fellow's gender in order to make each other look better, but doing so doesn't necessarily mean Fea is a wolf.

Lottie decides to vote for EW by method of elimination (fair enough). She made her intention clear before voting, and in the end hers was the decisive vote. Sally, on the other hand, said she'd rather not vote for him in his absence (thoughtful, but given EW was a wolf, might also be a convenient way to direct votes off her fellow).

Originally Posted by Boro

Now you are forcing my hand to you or Fea, and you weren't someone I said "no lynch."

I think he looks the most suspicious of the EW voters, simply because everybody else's votes were kind of random "in lack of a better suspect", and a Borowolf would totally do that to a fellow if need be. If I had to name a wolf in the EWagon, it'd probably be him.

It can be argued wilwa tried to save EW, but when she voted (tying Pitch & EW), Fea was leading with three and EW had two votes. Voting for Fea would have made more sense in that situation.

Originally Posted by sally

I hate to ambush someone, especially on Day One, but for once it turned out

That's why, if I don't have a real suspect, I prefer to vote for a quiet-ish person I can't really read. That saves me from the trouble of having to worry about submarines later. ;-)

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I find it interesting that all four of these people are still alive, actually. You'd think they'd all look like Seers!

They just had good luck. If there had been a bandwagon like that for example against you, they'd probably look like seers, but EW had few posts and was therefore quite a random lynch. I agree it's interesting none of them was killed, though.

Originally Posted by Eomer

I was convinced EW was innocent!

How can you be convinced someone is innocent if they have only posted once?

I quite like it Lottie thinks I'm the best-looking here! ;-)

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Agan

I don't get this. Is Borowolf known for accidentally killing the cobbler or what?

Is he ever!

Originally Posted by Agan

I think skip's reasoning for his vote looks awfully fishy, but being the first to vote for a wolf makes him look better. We can't obviously rule out the option that a wolf voted for EW, but I find it unlikely that a wolf would've started a bandwagon against a fellow.

Whatever skip may be, he didn't start a bandwagon. If you must know, it rather annoys me when people talk of the first vote on a player as the start of a bandwagon, when generally there's no indication at that point of how the voting will go. I'm not saying I suspect skip, either, understand just that that's a pretty poor reason not to suspect him.

This comment I don't quite understand:

Originally Posted by Agan

They just had good luck. If there had been a bandwagon like that for example against you, they'd probably look like seers, but EW had few posts and was therefore quite a random lynch. I agree it's interesting none of them was killed, though.

I'm not disputing that our spectacular drive-by Fenrissing may have been good luck and nothing more– they often are, I think, and this is a small village anyway. But what does randomness have to do with it? Why should that alarm Team Evil less?

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Whatever skip may be, he didn't start a bandwagon.

If you have to vote relatively early and you have lots of options, would you really put your fellow under the spotlight by voting him? I don't think so. Of course it's possible, but it's unlikely enough to make me feel better about skip not being a wolf.

But what does randomness have to do with it? Why should that alarm Team Evil less?

It might be just me, but if we get a quiet wolf on day 1, I find it much more likely that we just got lucky than that the seer was behind it. When it comes to louder/more involved players, it takes a lot more to get them lynched. Not that that's too difficult on day 1, either, but bandwagoning against a quiet player is simply easy (and sometimes useful, sometimes not). In my opinion, it would be slightly paranoid of the wolves to presume EW died because of being seer-dreamed.

[Nerwen]

To clarify my last comment:

Agan, I quite agree that getting a Fenris wolf completely at random is not that tall an order in such a small village, and when the votes were so spread out. (It took only three votes to lynch EW.) However, it's not easy for the wolves to be so objective– I'd think the voters behind an apparently random Fenrissing would be more likely to get their attention.

EDIT:X'd with Agan.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Agan

If you have to vote relatively early and you have lots of options, would you really put your fellow under the spotlight by voting him? I don't think so.

Well, you may not think so, but wolves have voted their fellows often enough in the past, and in fact the first vote is arguably the "safest".

Again, I don't particularly suspect Skip– I just don't get your reasoning.

Originally Posted by Agan

In my opinion, it would be slightly paranoid of the wolves to presume EW died because of being seer-dreamed.

I agree– but as I said, wolves are often exactly that.

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

However, it's not easy for the wolves to be so objective– I'd think the voters behind an apparently random Fenrissing would be more likely to get their attention.

Yes I understand what you mean and am equally surprised none of the EW voters died. I still think the wolves don't get paranoid & think EW was dreamed of so easily, though... But even so, why didn't someone who voted for him die? After all, being part of a random bandwagon against a wolf on day 1 should make them look much more innocent. Even if there was a wolf on the bandwagon, there are three innocents (or two, if the wolves decided to be really mean), and they could easily have gone after one of them. Or were they so afraid of the ranger? Or did they just want to confuse us? Or whatever.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Well, you may not think so, but wolves have voted their fellows often enough in the past, and in fact the first vote is arguably the "safest".

That's true, but everybody knows quiet players stand a higher risk of getting lynched on day 1, so why make it worse by voting your fellow? In this small a game, even one vote can make a difference.

I'm not saying skip is innocent, I just think that voting for EW makes him look more so - as well as everybody else who did that.

I have to leave now, will be back in a few hours.

[A Little Green]

I'm going to keep an eye on our European males (Pitch, skip, Eomer, and yes I think you can count Greenie among them ).

I'm your man.

Originally Posted by Sally

Fea is getting a lot of unhealthy attention. Nothing unusual there, but the bandwagon (because that's what it is!) forming against her is fishy. Regardless of Fea's role, I don't like to see this kind of rather simple voting, especially toDay.

Question 1: are two votes a bandwagon? Question 2: Why "especially toDay"? Isn't Day 1 the Day when simple voting is the most pardonable due to lack of substance? For myself, I find "simple" votes much more worrisome later on when there would actually be more to build on.

Originally Posted by Fea

asks 'she for whom the moon doth shine' what she thinks of Eomer's vote (for Greenie); as a side note, I'm not at all certain who this question was directed to, and I've been wondering if he meant me

I thought he was talking about Nerwen, but I could be wrong..

Originally Posted by Fea

Something I think I forgot to add to that last post is what I actually think...

Which is that I'm assuming Shasta was killed to be 'trail-less', since all arguments for or against end up being, "Yeah, it's obvious it was totally this person! (Or that one)."

I would be inclined to agree. He didn't look seerish at all, and if the wolves wanted to frame someone with their kill they would probably have picked someone with more pronounced opinions.

Originally Posted by Agan

If you have to vote relatively early and you have lots of options, would you really put your fellow under the spotlight by voting him? I don't think so. Of course it's possible, but it's unlikely enough to make me feel better about skip not being a wolf.

I'm not sure. Making a random-ish Day 1 vote on a fellow who has not been suspected at all during the Day is relatively safe (or at least is if you forget to consider the size of the village). I'm not convinced though that a skipwolf would do it, so I don't really know.

Originally Posted by Eomer

"One of those reasons has got to be 'who but a wolf could fit thirty little green grapes in between their jaws!', right? "


What does this mean? Anything?

I believe he was referring to something he did in RL this summer when we met him, so I'd put it down as banter.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Light defence of Greenie.

Seems to trust... Nerwen?... in asking what she (?) thinks of my vote for Green. I think he was referring to Nerwen but could be wrong.

Suspects Pitch for Pitch's vote for Fea.

Suspects Sally, I think, for reasons totally unclear to me. Post #59



---------------------------

Not sure why the wolves picked Shasta. On Day One there's not usually a direct link between their kill and the Seer-Fear (hey, that rhymes!) i.e. wolf dinner was pointing to a wolf.

In this case the slaying of Shasta could point to Pitch or Sally (not sure about this - maybe someone who knows Shasta and Sally better can advise here?), but reading through the thread it looks like Shasta only suspected Pitch after Pitch's vote. So he didn't 'have it in for him' so to speak.

I did, though, get the feeling Shasta was talking in riddles. I will try to get some examples now.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

"One of those reasons has got to be 'who but a wolf could fit thirty little green grapes in between their jaws!', right? "


What does this mean? Anything?

----------------------

"She for whom the moon doth shine, what dost thou think of Eomer's vote?"

Meaningful? Or just an in-joke that no-one else can understand?




Well, that was it. Probably nothing; but it's possible the wolves took these weird phrases for gifted hints.

[Nerwen]

Reactions to The Wolf-warrior's plight.

Note:"irrelevant" posts are those in which players defended themselves or other players (other than EW), or replied to earlier comments. Posts judged relevant are those including any comment on EW, any suspicion of another player, and vote-posts. (Also banter, just in case it's an attempt at distraction..)

Missing numbers are posts by Inzil, who I think is in the clear.

#60.

Originally Posted by Skip

Okay, I'm back and as I should have been in bed hours ago I gotta take a quick shot from the hip (and in all fairness any vote at this point is just that).

The Elf-Warrior has only made one post so far but there's just something about the timing and the subject matter and the phrasing of that post that seems a bit sinister to me.

Especially the last part, which I highlighted. There's something potentially euphemistic about that phrase. Possibly veiled wolfish banter. Only one way to find out:

++The Elf-warrior

At this time there was one vote on Greenie (Eomer), two on Fea (Greenie and Pitch) and one on Sally (Agan).


Sally (#61) –irrelevant.


Lottie (#62). On EW "Personally, I think it's just banter. It came early in the Day and I think someone else had even mentioned food in their banter post earlier." (In same post, mildly defends Pitch, Wilwa and Fea; will "keep an eye" on Shasta.)


(#63) Sally votes Pitch.


Fea (#64) –irrel.


Wilwa (#65). –irrel.


Boro (#67). Banter.

Sally (#68). –irrel.


Sally (#70). –irrel.


#71.

Originally Posted by Lottie

Bleh. I went through the thread, giving people checks under "wolf", "cobbler", and "innocent", and now the person I suspect most is also the person I trust most. Agan, thank you for confusing me.

Anyways, the only people who got checks under "wolf" are Agan, Vanilwuffin, and Boro. Boro also has three "innocent" checks, however, while Vanilwuffin has one "innocent" check. The only other people of note were Fea, who got a whopping four "cobbler" checks and one "innocent" check, and Eomer and TEWie, who got nothing. I might vote for one of them for being so quiet.

Wilwa (#72) –banter.


Sally (#73). Banter, thinks Boro's post at #67 is "weird".


#74.

Originally Posted by Fea

++Elf

Not because I particularly suspect her (I reserve opinions until Day 2, as everyone knows) but because I have nobody better to vote for and because with a village this small, odds are solid that if I threw a rock I'd hit a wolf. And because she's quiet, and you can't analyze a statue.

Lottie (#76) corrects Fea on EW's gender; banter.


Fea (#77) apologies to EW, saying she thought he was The Great Elven Warrior.


Boro (#78). –semi-irrelevant: explains why he will not vote Agan, Fea or Pitch.


Sally (#79) asks Lottie to explain her "checks" (see #71).


Wilwa (#80) comments on the wide spread of the votes; has no real suspect but will probably vote someone already voted so as not to make a throwaway. Does not want to vote Fea, Sally or Greenie; "clueless" about Pitch and The Wolf-warrior. Might vote one of them.


And now Mr Fenris himself, on Fea's mistake:
#81.

Originally Posted by The Wolf-warrior

Apology accepted. However, I feel compelled to vote for...

++Feanor

It's a matter of self preservation, mah dear.

Comment: Oddly, nobody seems to pick up the rather sinister tone of this post– Wolf-warrior was, after, casting a likely death-vote, and in danger himself. He just seems so relaxed about it– could this all have been planned? A foolhardy strategy with only three wolves in the pack, though.


#82.Reply to Sally (#79) asking about "checks".

Originally Posted by Lottie

Anything that jumped out at me as innocent, wolvish, or cobblerish, I marked down. It wasn't a very sophisitcated system at all.

As for the voted people, I won't vote Pitch (he's my second most trusted person, apparently). Not Sally or Greenie, either...and almost definitely not Fea. TEWie it probably is, then...

EDIT: xed with TEWie, and maybe more people, since I haven't checked to see who ended the last page yet.

#83.

Originally Posted by Sally

I'd prefer holding off on Elf, since he's not been here in hours. I'd hate to lynch him in his absence, at least on Day One. It could end really poorly.

EDIT: x'd sine Muffin's quoted post. Ah, the prodigal Elf appears....

#84. Response to The Wolf-warrior's vote-post.

Originally Posted by Boro

The votes are spread out enough where surely you could have gone with someone else maybe a little suspicious other than "for self-preservation"

Now you are forcing my hand to you or Fea, and you weren't someone I said "no lynch."

A weak reason for voting EW– he was in danger precisely because the votes were spread out. It does indeed look "forced".
(You know, I don't know about likely, but it would certainly be bloody hilarious if the wolves were EW, Fea and Boro, and this post respresented Boro wringing his hands in despair.)


#85. Response to Sally at #83.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Yeah, once I went back and realised his only posts are one banter and a vote, I really don't want to. And I feel quite good about the girls on the line,
so that leaves me with:

++Pitch

x'ed with Boro

#86.

Originally Posted by Lottie

++Elf

Sorry, TEWie.

#87

Originally Posted by Boro

++Elf-Warrior

Edit: crossed with Lottie.

#89. (Response to Boro at #84 and EW's vote-post. 2 minutes after DL.)

Originally Posted by Sally

This. You didn't have to vote for Fea, you chose her because she was an easy target. There wasn't self-preservation on your mind there.

Comments: Well, I'll take my hat off to the baddies. If any wolves were around in the latter part of the Day, when The Wolf-warrior started to get into trouble, they played it very cool indeed. Nobody hit the panic button at any point; however Sally (#83) and Wilwa (#85) are the ones who look most as if they might be trying to rescue him at the eleventh hour. (Sally does a Legate-180 at #89, but that's too late to mean anything, either way.)

Lottie and Boro look better– they both cast what each must have thought would be the decisive vote on The Wolf-warrior. (Boro crossed with Lottie.) At this point both Fea and Pitch were also available for lynching, and they couldn't both be wolves if either of the others were.

EDIT: X'd since Agan at #115 (this took a long time, and there were interruptions.)

[Aganzir]

Okay I'm here, not much time now but I'll do what I can.

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

His vote for Fea, if you look at the post again, with its almost total lack of content, looks like a rushed post. His lack of participation, as a whole, adds credence to that idea.

The few times I've played with him, he's been rather silent regardless of his role, and quietness shouldn't really speak in favour of someone's innocence, anyway.

To borrow one of Shasta's other sayings: "very fishy". Looks to me like there's something going on with those EW voters.

What do you mean? That the people who voted for him are suspicious - because they chanced to kill a wolf?

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'm your man.

I want a doctor!

Question 1: are two votes a bandwagon?

When they come relatively early, I think you could call it the start of a bandwagon even though people don't necessarily join it later.

He didn't look seerish at all, and if the wolves wanted to frame someone with their kill they would probably have picked someone with more pronounced opinions.

I agree. I kind of wonder if it means the wolves thought they were so safe they could afford to kill someone who didn't look like the seer.

Making a random-ish Day 1 vote on a fellow who has not been suspected at all during the Day is relatively safe (or at least is if you forget to consider the size of the village).

I find it highly unlikely the wolves forget that - they're probably fully aware of how many days they have to survive in order to win, and losing even one fellow is too much. Of course I might be wrong - maybe they decided to sacrifice one of them at an early stage so the others would look better... But it makes so much less sense to me, I wouldn't be too worried about it at the moment.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

So yeah, the last several experiences with having some sort of involvement with the cobbler has just failed.

Ahh, I wasn't aware of that. Poor you - it must have felt almost as bad as being busted by a quiet gifted.

You are right, I will throw packmates under the bus, but to think I do it randomly and whenever the chance comes to "look better" is just wrong, hun.

And I (or anybody else) have no way of knowing if it was actually random or not. Just pointing out.

Which begs the question, maybe he had no packmates left to vote and he was really feeling the heat?

That's a fair point.

But no, he tried to make it look like he didn't want to vote for Fea at all, the only reason he wanted to was to save himself.

The same way I could say you looked like you didn't want to vote for him, the only reason you wanted to do so was because he had just screwed up by making a vote that forced you to choose between him and Fea (who you had already said you didn't want to vote for).

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

On the first Night I think most packs just want an easy kill without any trail, and someone who didn't vote is the perfect candidate for that.

Sounds sensible - except it doesn't solve the riddle why they didn't go after someone who looked a bit more like the seer. Or didn't they simply have any clue about the seer's identity? Grr now I'm obsessed about this...

He had posted only once when people started voted him, and it was banter.

Yeah, you could argue it was unfair - but regardless of his role, it can also be said it was unfair for the rest of us he didn't post much and let us know what he thought. If we hadn't killed him, he would probably have slipped under everybody's radar - and if he had been eg. the seer, the wolves couldn't probably have detected him. Not that it would necessarily have been a bad thing, but personally I would've felt sorry for the wolves (completely regardless of my role).
A few months ago, I would have been at wilwa's throat for looking like she tried to save a wolf and even daring to say afterwards that she felt bad he was killed the way he was, but having met her in person I can totally see her doing that also as an innocent because, well, she's just sweet like that. I'm sorry if this sounds somehow exclusive, but I can't really help it.

It's Lottie's that bugs me. She had done this whole 'check' system, and ended up voting for someone that had no 'checks' for anything, rather than one of the people she had given 'wolf checks' for.

Yeah that was a bit weird. But you have to remember it's sometimes easier to go for a submarine on day 1 (like, I voted for a quiet one rather than somebody I suspected a bit)... And she only voted after you said you'd rather not spread the votes too much.
I, too, am kind of curious about why she didn't vote for Fea though. Not that I mind because I have no major qualms about Fea's behaviour, but I'm of the opinion anybody shouldn't be ignored because she might be "just" the cobbler. It's almost as important to find the cobbler as the wolves, even though she isn't quite as strong in this game as she's been in some others, and if I had to choose between someone I was mildly suspicious of and someone I was pretty certain was the cobbler, I'd totally vote for the cobbler.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

getting rid of seer before xe can do so is always my top priority.

It's of course possible we have sneaky under-the-radar type of wolves who believe they will not be early dreams... Or wolves who want us to believe so.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

(You know, I don't know about likely, but it would certainly be bloody hilarious if the wolves were EW, Fea and Boro, and this post respresented Boro wringing his hands in despair.)

Hahaha that would be hilarious! Poor Boro!

If any wolves were around in the latter part of the Day, when The Wolf-warrior started to get into trouble, they played it very cool indeed.

Well, statistically it's likely we have at least one European wolf. I'm generally not a big fan of statistics, but I, too, noticed the lack of "should I vote for him or try to save him yes no yes no aieee" kind of wavering at deadline. Boro came closest to it, but even he wasn't very bad.

Originally Posted by skip spence

Eomer --- To me it looked like a random yet honest vote.

How can it look honest (or dishonest) when there's so little to base it on?

If she really wanted Fea to live a vote on Elf and not Pitch would make more sense to me.

But did she? If you don't have a really strong feeling about someone's role, you don't usually care that much about whether they die or not, so accusing wilwa of not saving Fea by voting the proper person seems far-fetched to me. And actually I think wilwa's reason for choosing Pitch over EW was quite decent. Yes she might be a wolf, but she could also have done it as an innocent.

I have to go now. I'll try to pop in every now and then, but I'm not sure how much time I have to post.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Aganzir, how can you make such a long post on Day Two? It's quite frankly ridiculous.

I'm not sure what you don't understand about my position, though. I already explained why I think the EW voting was suspicious: that being, I didn't see any good reasoning for it. And what do you know? They caught a wolf. I don't see how it was deduced, so I'm guessing it was either lucky or contrived.

Of course the tendency is to say that, though there may be a wolf in among them, the EW voters are squeaky-clean. But I have a bad feeling about it. If the two wolves are among the four voters, one at least is gonna get a free ride right to the end of the game.

But it's dangerous to get fixated on one hypothesis, so I'm going to have to think about other villagers now.

Be back soonish.

[Pitchwife]

Got home late and just caught up. Some quick thoughts:

I couldn't find anything that would have looked particularly Seerish in Shasta's few posts, but I'm puzzled by this:

Originally Posted by Fea #101

If Shasta was killed for looking Seerish, this exonerates Lottie, since Shasta said she might be the cobbler, and the wolves would not know who the cobbler is, nor would Shasta-seer be able to actually tell the difference between cobbler and ordo.

Where did Shasta say anything about Lottie being the cobbler? All I could find was this:

Originally Posted by Shasta #34

I could easily vote for Lottie, though - she's said next to nothing which is entirely unlike her.

No mention of cobblery here.

(Speaking of Lottie, I too would be very interested in hearing what those checks she mentioned were based on, and how she got from giving Fea 'four cobbler checks' to 'almost definitely not' voting her.)

Originally Posted by Nerwen #104

If Elf had turned out innocent, this would have looked like one blatant, eeevilll bandwagon.

Yep. When I read the thread and saw the votes piling up against him, my first thought was 'Oh no, another Blind Guardian!' - only this time it turned out lucky. So I totally understood sally's reservations against it.

Originally Posted by Boro #120

And you know, if one of the late voters after him was a fellow packmate, he should have felt a bit of security. Which begs the question, maybe he had no packmates left to vote and he was really feeling the heat?

Possible. If so, this would obviously speak for wilwa, Lottie and (by lucky coincidence) yourself.

As for wolvish involvement in the TEWagon, I have a hard time imagining that they would sacrifice one of their own so early. If he'd been a little further ahead in the votes, I could see a packmate deciding he was burnt meat anyway and giving him the final push, but with him and Fea being tied until Boro's decisive vote, that doesn't seem plausible.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Where did Shasta say anything about Lottie being the cobbler?

You know, I have no idea. I just searched every single one of Shasta's posts and didn't find anything, and then I reread my post summarizing all the interactions he had with people and the things people said about him, and I have NO clue where I got that. I think I must have been in the middle of writing something and started reading or thinking about something different, and the thoughts combined.

Perhaps it's because others have mentioned Lottie as a possible cobbler suspect? Honestly, I'm quite ashamed at that oversight. I mean, I summarized all of Shasticle's posts myself, like three sentences before my brain spontaneously decided to attribute that statement to Shasta.

Sorry about that.

Well, there goes that entire argument about Shasta's death more or less exonerating Lottiepop...

I've been thinking all day about how Shasta "said" Lottie might be the cobbler. Brain-fail.

Now I'll need to re-think, but I haven't been home very long, so rethinking will have to come pretty quickly to meet deadline...

[Boromir88]

I didn't realize how late it was and I'm not going to be back until after the DL, so my vote will be coming in this post.

In response to Agan. I don't approach Day 1s with the same contempt that others do, but I have probably a much different method than what is normal. That is, I find it very hard to come up with random suspicions against anyone, everything winds up "could be doing this, or could be doing that, I have no idea about..." So, in the experimental larger games, I typically say something controversial, to get attention and people talking about me and from there I can sort out who looks evil and rotten and who doesn't. But in the straight-forward ones like this, I can't make some kind of hint about the "great and almighty Zeus" if Zeus isn't a role, ya know?

What happens is I find it far easier to figure out who I trust more, and don't want to see lynched than coming up with actual suspicions. This narrows down my list, like...ok don't want Fea, Agan, or Pitch gone today. (Note, these are all flexible at anytime. Like for instance, today I'm feeling far more trusting of Skip today than yesterday. Mostly because some of his comments, I don't know just don't look like what a wolf would think about making. Fea and Eomer haven't done anything to make me feel better about them, but they also haven't done anything to make me lose trust). I look to see who has votes. Shall the list stay at the number? Do I want to add in another name of someone I'm more suspicious of? And as you can see, the way I approach Day 1 typically winds up with me making a vote because I don't want someone lynched, more so than I DO strongly want to lynch someone. I put quotes suspects yesterday (sally, Lottie, and wilwa) because I use that term loosely. Yesterday looked like they were trying to do something, something that was off-character, but no idea whether it was for better or worse.

I'm pretty wary of all this attention being focused around the 4 TEW voters. I mean to assume that it was too lucky to have hit and one of them had to be a packmate is not necessarily right. Agan you said that I forced myself into that position by declaring earlier that I did not want Fea lynched. But you're not looking at how late that post came. If I'm a wolf with TEW, just think if how late that post came if it makes sense for a wolf to actually make it? Had I been concerned about saving, TEW or not, I wouldn't have even made that post. I would have caught up on what I missed, and made my vote earlier to not leave TEW in that situation.

You may not believe me, but Lottie is probably the most familiar one here with my wolf habits now, because of our most recent history. I saved her rear-end on Day 1, because I cast an early vote for her and made it purposefully look like a bandwagon, so the "counter save Lottie from bandwagon liberation front" would start. I guarantee, not to boast, but if I was TEWs packmate, he would not have been stuck in that situation with 5 minutes left in the DL. I would have either went ahead and pushed him in the lead to seal his death, or voted in an attempt to save him. I did neither, I held to the very last minute to make up my mind already, and got fortunate. My primary focus that last hour would have been what to do to help TEW, or myself, not writing a post about who I felt good about and not want to see lynched.

++sally

This is going to be a terrible Day 2 vote, but I've gotta be gone in 20 minutes and won't be back til after DL. Basically it boils down to I don't like the look of all her little posts hinting towards people shouldn't trust me. If you don't, and think I'm suspicious, or whatever, fine that's your choice. But The several posts of "Boro's post here is creepy." "Boro's up to something, just don't know what" look like attempts to sow distrust and suspicion. And I have to wonder why an innocent sally would be trying to do something like that. Can't think of a reason.

[A Little Green]

I didn't realize how late it was, either! And I was supposed to not be busy this week, but it seems I am after all. Well, here I am, anyway, I'll post, then vote, then go to bed.

So, a quick summary of what I think of my fellow villagers:
Agan - My gut says innocent; my logic would warn me against an Agan who doesn't annoy me at all. So I don't know.
Pitch - Mr. Agreeable is a bit less pronouncedly agreeable than the average Pitchwolf, but I don't entirely trust how easy and careful he is.
Boro - Confuses me to no end. I was about to write that I'm leaning towards thinking he's not a wolf, but then I realised I'm not. I don't like his constant "I wouldn't do this if I was a wolf" -arguments.
Sally - Another confusing one, might be worth a closer look.
Lottie - Hmm. I'm getting both good and evil vibes from her, more the latter, though. I agree that her vote was somewhat fishy.
skip - Seems genuine, I'm not worried about him right now.
Eomer - Likewise, though I could actually also see him as a wolf.. Eurgh, this game is making me paranoid.
Nerwen - Ouch. Every time I hazard a guess at her role I'm wrong. This time though I have no guesses at all. Could be anything.
Wilwa - Leaning suspicious. Her vote yesterDay is not improving her in my book. But I'm quite baffled by this thing between her and Lottie - they both look rather fishy I think, but I'm not sure if their mutual suspicion could be wolf-on-wolf.. Somehow I think it improbable that the last two wolves would want their names linked together in any way whatsoever, they need to be careful.
Fea - I'm not discarding the possibility of a happily sniggering Feawolf, but I'm not going to vote her toDay.

What have we got, then? The ones I'm least easy with are Wilwa and Lottie, but I don't think they are wolves together, so even if I'm right about one I'm probably wrong about the other.. My vote will go for one of the two toDay anyway, probably Wilwa because I've seen more of her than Lottie.

Back with my vote post soon.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

It's Lottie's that bugs me. She had done this whole 'check' system, and ended up voting for someone that had no 'checks' for anything, rather than one of the people she had given 'wolf checks' for. Here's the post:



So there were 3 of us who had a 'check' for wolf, but when she voted none of us had votes so maybe she didn't want to throw away a vote. But she seemed to really think Fea could be the cobbler, though later said she'd almost definitely not vote for her. So why vote for someone who had no 'wolf' checks, over someone who had four 'cobbler' ones? At the time she voted, voting for Fea would not have been a throwaway. Oh, I know now you're saying 'but she sealed TEWs fate, she mustn't be a wolf', but when she voted Boro had basically said he'd be voting for TEW, and I had recently said I was planning to before I changed my mind. So it could still be a wolf on wolf.

I don't know, out of the 4 votes for him, this one is the fishiest.

I didn't vote Fea for the same reason I didn't vote Agan, Boro, or Wilwa - even though they all had "wolf" checks, they also had "innocent" checks. In short, they were being noticeable.

Now, something I noticed - if TEWie thought he'd be lynched, he could well have voted his packmate to try and make whichever one survived look better. I'm not saying this makes Fea a wolf; it's a random thought that popped into my head. Or he could have been trying to deflect attention away from a packmate who was on the chopping block; but again, this could well be a random, nonsensical thought.

As for Boro, he's not acting like the Boro-wolf I've played with, and I'm inclined to trust him.

Agan posts too many words, but she seems innocent, too.

EDIT: xed with Greenie

[skip spence]

OK, just an open query:

I'm rather new at this game and frankly, I don't see why the lynch of Wolf-warrior is so inherently fishy. Even in the hypothetical scenario that he were innocent. Because on Day 1 any judgement (barring inside knowledge the wolves and the Seer have) is bound to be highly subjective. You look at the behaviour of people and try to guess if they are acting in the interest of the village or not. Not posting much may also be a reason for suspicion as good as any other, and Boro is right in that one can also vote because you trust someone else more without necessarily suspecting the person you vote for in any particular way.

Yes, we were lucky to catch a wolf (even if there was a Seer involved) but for me it's kind of hard to see that happening any other way. Most people here (I believe) are experienced players who wouldn't make an obvious slip, so catching a wolf at that point would require a bit of luck regardless.

I'm certainly not discounting a wolf or two among the TEW-voters, or that the whole lynching is an elaborate scam, but I don't see why this lynch should be such a stand-out in that respect.

[Aganzir]

Friends are doing stuff I'm not needed for, so I'm going to make a quick summary. I haven't reread the thread, so it's mostly just the general opinions & impressions I have on people.

GUILTY
sally. Reacted unnecessarily jumpily to my vote (come on, it was day 1 and I wasn't super suspicious of anybody, it's nothing personal), and some things she says about people in #58 rubbed me the wrong way. Or maybe it's not the things she says but the way she says them that feels off to me. She also jumped on wilwa's suggestion we don't lynch EW in his absence which was her biggest game-related contribution after voting.
skip. Not necessarily a wolf (I'm still kind of doubtful whether he would've cast the first vote for a fellow) but he feels somehow awfully off. I'm toying with the idea he's the cobbler.
Eomer. Weird. I don't seem to get his reasoning at all, and his Greenie vote looks opportunistic.

INNOCENT
Fea. She voted for EW, and EW voted for her. While it's totally possible it's a wolfish scheme (you can't really rule out anything when we're talking of Fea), I think survival is in the wolves' best interests. However, I'm not actually trusting her, either.
wilwa. If she had really wanted to save EW, why didn't she vote for Fea who had more votes? Generally she makes sense and has good points, and although I'm by no means convinced of her innocence, I'm willing to trust her for now. Besides I'm somewhat concerned about how she seems to be today's easy lynching candidate.
Greenie. Seems innocentish enough and I'm not too worried about her at the moment, although I'm fully aware of how capable she's fooling me. I will probably want to have a look at her at some point though.

EITHER
Nerwen. I don't really like her vote for wilwa (she seems like such an easy target after defending EW yesterday), but apart from that she hasn't given me a reason to be suspicious.
Lottie. Voted for EW which makes her look more innocent, but why didn't she choose Fea or someone else she had expressed suspicion of? Hmm actually now that I think of it, her giving Fea four cobbler checks and saying very soon afterwards that she wasn't going to vote for her might be interpreted as a hint from a wolf to the cobbler... Not sure about that though because I still think giving hints to the cobbler wouldn't be worth the risk.
Boro. He generally seems to make sense, and he voted for a wolf, but there was something forced-looking in his decision.
Pitch. Apart from a slightly bad feeling yesterDay, he's been escaping my attention so far. Will have to remedy that when I can.

I'm probably going to vote for someone either on the Guilty or Either list.

[Boromir88]

This is going to come off as an "I wouldn't do that, if I was a wolf, ergo I'm not a wolf" posts, but Agan, you asked for it. So keep up and listen.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I don't get this. Is Borowolf known for accidentally killing the cobbler or what?

Nerwen gave the short answer. Last two times as a wolf, I've killed the cobbler first night (it may have even be 3 now, come to think of it). Last time I was a cobbler, the wolves killed me first night. So yeah, the last several experiences with having some sort of involvement with the cobbler has just failed.

I think he looks the most suspicious of the EW voters, simply because everybody else's votes were kind of random "in lack of a better suspect", and a Borowolf would totally do that to a fellow if need be. If I had to name a wolf in the EWagon, it'd probably be him.

You are right, I will throw packmates under the bus, but to think I do it randomly and whenever the chance comes to "look better" is just wrong, hun. I won't go into the details, because there's better things to do, after the game if you're interested in hearing my WW-philosophy I'll send you a message.

But that's wrong, in a small village with only 3 wolves, if I was one, I wouldn't just randomly sacrifice a packmate if there was no need to. Actually, chances are, I would have voted a lot earlier to help TEW out towards the end where he wasn't in that situation come the DL.

My vote may look more reasonable than some of the other random votes, but you're only looking at the situation from after the fact. Take out the hindsight bias, and you will realize I made a really silly choice, that turned out fortunately. When I got back a little after 8, I wasn't seriously considering thinking about voting for TEW, I really had no clue who I was going to vote for. All I knew is I reached the conclusion that I did not want Fea or Pitch to be lynched, and they both had votes, and Pitch may have come under a swift bandwagon based on his suspicions of Fea. I'd say my top "suspects" were sally, Lottie, and wilwa.

Then TEW votes, and it was his reason of "self-preservation" that I thought looked fabricated. I mean yes since he and Fea both had 2 votes, I guess he was feeling a bit of pressure in needing to save himself. With time running down, not only was he essentially making it a 2-person race, but it looked like opportunistic, almost false, reasoning.

So, the way I saw it, he really wasn't in a must "self-preservate" situation. He may have been feeling some pressure, but he knew there were several of us around there to vote. And you know, if one of the late voters after him was a fellow packmate, he should have felt a bit of security. Which begs the question, maybe he had no packmates left to vote and he was really feeling the heat? Anyways, it was the "This is only for self-preservation, sorry Fea" that just stood out to me. I thought, ya know, if he was innocent, and he couldn't find better reasons to vote for Fea, the votes were spread out enough surely he could have been more suspicious about someone else. But no, he tried to make it look like he didn't want to vote for Fea at all, the only reason he wanted to was to save himself.

After the clouds clear, I made a good vote. That's it, but it was lucky to turn out the way it did, because I was really going out on a limb to put my trust Fea. "Yes, this time she is innocent, she's not being all manipulative and opportunistic, only using people until they're of no more use. She's innocent, and since she is, I really could use her help if we can get past the silly randomness of Day 1."

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

"She for whom the moon doth shine, what dost thou think of Eomer's vote?"

Meaningful? Or just an in-joke that no-one else can understand?

Inside joke, Shasta and Nerwen always call each other by overly romantic nicknames. So he was directing the question to Nerwen.

I think the reason Shasta was killed is probably simply because he didn't vote. On the first Night I think most packs just want an easy kill without any trail, and someone who didn't vote is the perfect candidate for that.

Even though TEW ended up being a wolf, that whole bandwaggon still erks me. He had posted only once when people started voted him, and it was banter. It's kind of mean killing someone when they aren't around to even try and defend themselves, and haven't really had the chance to say anything.

For the TEW voters, I think Skip's vote looks alright, he had to vote fairly early in the Day, when for all he know TEW would be around quite a bit, and he went off a gut thing, which is a normal thing when you vote early, not usually much to go on. Fea's vote is okish. Boro's vote atleast has a pretty good reason, kind of.

It's Lottie's that bugs me. She had done this whole 'check' system, and ended up voting for someone that had no 'checks' for anything, rather than one of the people she had given 'wolf checks' for. Here's the post:

Originally Posted by Lottiepop

Anyways, the only people who got checks under "wolf" are Agan, Vanilwuffin, and Boro. Boro also has three "innocent" checks, however, while Vanilwuffin has one "innocent" check. The only other people of note were Fea, who got a whopping four "cobbler" checks and one "innocent" check, and Eomer and TEWie, who got nothing. I might vote for one of them for being so quiet.

So there were 3 of us who had a 'check' for wolf, but when she voted none of us had votes so maybe she didn't want to throw away a vote. But she seemed to really think Fea could be the cobbler, though later said she'd almost definitely not vote for her. So why vote for someone who had no 'wolf' checks, over someone who had four 'cobbler' ones? At the time she voted, voting for Fea would not have been a throwaway. Oh, I know now you're saying 'but she sealed TEWs fate, she mustn't be a wolf', but when she voted Boro had basically said he'd be voting for TEW, and I had recently said I was planning to before I changed my mind. So it could still be a wolf on wolf.

I don't know, out of the 4 votes for him, this one is the fishiest.

So, I have to go to work in about 3 hours, and my shift extends past the DL, so I will be voting very early.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by wilwa

I think the reason Shasta was killed is probably simply because he didn't vote. On the first Night I think most packs just want an easy kill without any trail, and someone who didn't vote is the perfect candidate for that.

I don't know, I never get the "trail less" kill theory while the seer is still alive. I would think losing one of their own this soon they would be trying to kill the seer with each choice, at least that's my opinion.

Unless they think they've got the seer already and maybe feared the ranger picked up on it too and would immediately protect. Or they could feel like they aren't necessarily going to grab the attention of the seer this soon, so they can go for some other, less predictable kills.

I just always operate under the opinion, as a wolf, get the seer first, but that could be more because I tend to be ousted by the seer at some point or another, so getting rid of seer before xe can do so is always my top priority. Might not be the same for all packs, I admit.

[skip spence]

Okay, I’ve been looking at the voting yesterDay to see what can be learned from it, trying to be reasonably objective. We must also remember that DL is in the middle of the night for the Europeans and that they therefore as a general rule must vote earlier than the North American who often can be around up until the DL.

*First there was Eomer giving Greenie an early vote. To me it looked like a random yet honest vote. But it is of course possible that he’s wolf trying to look inconspicuous too.

*Then Greenie votes Fea, because she stood out for being smug and confessing to be a wolf. Looks potentially a bit opportunistic too me (in the scenario that Fea is innocent and she is not), but I understand she had to be in bed early and can perhaps be excused for being a bit hasty.

*Third to vote is Pitch who puts Fea in a tight spot, giving her a second vote. Her post are “content-free and studiedly inscrutable” and her defence of earlier post are “over-defensive”. As a second vote for anyone at this point can be crucial this vote should be remembered.

*Then Agan votes Sally because she is very quiet and because Agan don’t want to be part of a Fea bandwagon. Agan also states that she considered voting Elf-warrior for the same reasons.

I then give Elf-warrior his first vote.

*Sally votes Pitch because “[his] case against Fea puts him on my hit list, because....well, it's just not quite right somehow”

*With less than an hour until the DL, Fea gives Elf his second vote. “not because I particularly suspect her (I reserve opinions until Day 2, as everyone knows) but because I have nobody better to vote for” It’s notable how careful she is not to mention self-preservation, as this surely is an issue at this point?


Now with less than 10 minutes left of the Day, almost than half the village - and at least one wolf - is yet to vote, so anything can still happen. Vote tally at this point: 2 Fea, 2 Elf, 1 Pitch, 1 Greenie, 1 Sally


*Elf is first to make the move, going for Fea to save his own furry backside. This decision makes me think better of Fea, as there were other alternatives the wolf could have gone for as well. It doesn’t clear her.

*Next to vote is Wilwa who in a rather non-committing way opens up the Pitch-alternative by giving him a second vote, something which can be seen as an indirect support for Elf, which also Agan has pointed out. Wilwa states that she feels pretty good about the girls on the line, and has already said she’d probably vote for either Elf of Pitch. If she really wanted Fea to live a vote on Elf and not Pitch would make more sense to me. Yet she goes for Pitch.

*Then, just before the bell tolls, Lottieand Boro seals Elf-wolf’s fate. Although anything is possible, I really don’t think they would've made that choice if either one of them are wolves. Unless Fea, or to a lesser degree Pitch, is also a wolf, in which case it would make perfect sense.

People I feel slightly better about now: Fea (more for Elf's vote on her that her vote on him), Boro and Lottie

People I feel more worried about: Wilwa (and I don't really like her accusation of Lottie either) Edit: and, I forgot (thanks Nerwen!), Sally, who also appears with a plead not too lynch Wolf, I mean Elf. But too obvious if she also is a wolf perhaps?

[wilwarin538]

Uh, so I hate doing this, but I really have to go, and I definitely won't be able to come back (can't go on the internet at work). I wish I had more time to make a stronger case on someone, but I don't

++Lottie

Based off her vote yesterDay and the inconsistency that it had with her 'check' system, not very strong, but all I got right now. My participation should be far better next Day.

[satansaloser2005]

Now this is interesting....

Originally Posted by skip spence

Now with less than 10 minutes left of the Day, almost than half the village - and at least one wolf - is yet to vote, so anything can still happen. Vote tally at this point: 2 Fea, 2 Elf, 1 Pitch, 1 Greenie, 1 Sally

How could he possibly know that? Skip, care to explain?

I can't decide if he's going by statistics or actual knowledge. *ponders*




A list, I see, a list indeed, but first a few thoughts.

Agan and Greenie's cases on me make no sense, Greenie's especially. While before I had thought Eomer a possible top suspect, Agan seemed to hop onto me quite suddenly, and since I started suspecting her she's pressed harder. A possible panicked wolf? Greenie, however, looks a wolf based on most of her behavior. Her vote for Wilwa (and then for me, when she had said in a closely previous post that she was so far undecided on me) makes me extremely worried.

I think that either Eomer or Greenie HAS to be a wolf, because while I don't think them being wolves together is an option any longer, I think they're both rather independently evil, Greenie especially. I can't get a feel on who Agan's pack would be, which makes me think that perhaps she's not a wolf after all, but she, too, feels furry and opportunistic. Perhaps a Finnish pack? I'm not sure.

Greenie's #206 is the most worrisome post for me. She gives the possibility both of me catching Agan and me trying to set her up, and then quickly seems to decide that I must be the evil one in the situation. Quick hop of logic there.


Basically my main suspects are Greenie and Eomer, because I'm almost certain that one of them is evil, and Agan as third place. Skip too depending on how he answers my question above.


EDIT: x'd with Nerwen.