WW LXXIX: Fall From Olympus

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Rikae

He could have, but to actually pinpoint the role (say, Phantom=Hera or Steve=the cursed) would be very unlikely.

It would indeed be very unlikely that, by mere accident, Boro correctly pointed to a phantom Hera, particularly so early in the Day. But did he talk about Steve as the Cursed, or just as someone he wouldn't mind lynching? If the former, the whole theory breaks down. However, if he was less specific, even that weak suspicion, added to his Seer-hinting, might have been enough to get the pack after him (supposing Steve is in fact a wolf, that is).

[Macalaure]

With all the seer-talk and "7 between 1 and 10", Boro pretty much told the wolves to kill him. There were a few scenarios the wolves would have considered.

1) He's indeed a high-level gifted.
2) He's a hunter.
3) He's an ordo or low-level gifted trying to make the wolves waste a kill.
4) He's the cursed and wants to be turned.

1) Kill him right away, even if he might be protected.
2) If Eonwe is a wolf they might hesitate, but otherwise: kill. The hunters' chances are worst during Night2. The sooner to get rid of them, the better.
3) Little benefit, but "At least we won't accidentally kill one of the unknown lovers."
4) Kill, obviously, especially considering that we would probably lynch Eonwe.

[the phantom]

During the time I had last night I did a bit of reading for Hades hints and Mac stood out a couple of times.

The first statement that jumped out was this-

Originally Posted by Mac

If I were Persephone, I'd know who to pick first now.

I realize quite well that I didn't include it in its entire context, but it did in fact seem to jump out at me stand-alone, as he didn't have to say it exactly like that.

And then he said this-

Originally Posted by Mac

The lovers are trying to find each other - we have to look for hints.

Almost as if he was getting Persephone's attention- "Hey! Persephone! Be looking for hints! *ahem* "

And then there was this one that looks rather harmless, but immediately upon my second read-through stood out to me-

Originally Posted by Mac

*gives up*

That was the entire post- two words only. And since I was looking for Hades clues, I thought "Hades gives up", which of course immediately triggered the scripture where it says "Hades gives up the dead".

And then the final statement that really really stood out to me-

Originally Posted by Mac

In my opinion, though it's frustrating to be alone with it, he used the reference to Zeus simply to say "I am a lover".

The middle part of the statement that stands alone between the commas I found quite interesting, "though it's frustrating to be ALONE with it". A hint that he's all alone, i.e. he's not with his lover?

What do other people think?

And of course I should ask Mac directly- what's the deal, laddie? Do you feel you were rather fixated on Lovers yesterday, particularly Hades/Persephone? If so, was it intentional?

The thing is, there could be a couple of explanations with behavior like that- the obvious thing, the less obvious but more likely by percentages thing, or the least likely by role percentage and easily forgotten thing but obvious if you re-read the rules. (Do you follow me?) So- which thing is it?

[Rikae]

Actually, I read the "although it's frustrating to be alone with it" post (which also is eye catching for ending with the words "I am a lover") several times over before making up my mind that the wording, which is odd enough to jump out at me, was probably due to Mac using a second language and not any kind of hint. I'm still a bit torn about it, though.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by the phantom

The thing is, there could be a couple of explanations with behavior like that- the obvious thing, the less obvious but more likely by percentages thing, or the least likely by role percentage and easily forgotten thing but obvious if you re-read the rules. (Do you follow me?) So- which thing is it?

I'm not sure I have the heart to tell you.

[Rikae]

Phantom, I know very well what you're up to, but right now I'm more concerned about Nerwen. She seems a little fishy, eh? I guess it's just a hunch, though.

Don't like people picking on my sweetie so much. He hasn't played in a long time, so let's not lynch him on Day 2, shall we? Especially when we have two major leads pointing in the direction of Steve and... helllo Almighty Phantom!

EDIT: X'd with Sweetie-Pie

[Rikae]

Where is all this "Steve is probably not the cursed" business coming from, anyway? I haven't seen a good argument against it. Against him having been Boro's dream and the cursed, yes, but there's still solid reason for thinking he's the cursed. His explanation for his "Dionysus" remark looked to me like a less-than-sincere echo of Nerwen and Boro's explanations.

For Boro's dream, though, I'm strongly leaning toward Phantom=Zeus. However, if he is, do we want to lynch him, or try to get Hera first and make him into an innocent (with additional powers, and on the side of the village)? Puts a bit of a new light on Phantom's lover-talk of yesterDay as well. Still, I doubt he'd have done anything yet that would lead us to Hera.

EDIT: X'd with Lalaith.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Mac

While I agree that Eonwe is probably not the cursed, the probability of the event that Eonwe has a (potentially) evil role is not affected by the outcome of the random experiment that determined the false seer's dream.

Yeah, true I guess.

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if a Seer dreams of a Cursed, is he told that the player is an ord? So for Boro to have dreamt of Eonwe and believed him to be evil, it would be either as wolf or, arguably, lover?

Yep.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Don't like people picking on my sweetie so much. He hasn't played in a long time, so let's not lynch him on Day 2, shall we? Especially when we have two major leads pointing in the direction of Steve and... helllo Almighty Phantom!

Your "sweetie" may not have played in a long time, but I haven't either! Not since last summer. What about some pity for me?

edit: x-post Rikae

[A Little Green]

Hmm. I was pretty sure yesterDay that Mac was Hades (a big part of why I voted for him in the first place), but didn't want to say it because I kind of hoped against all hope that Persephone had failed to notice what I did (a big part of why I voted for him with such flimsy reasons instead of my real ones). That obviously doesn't matter anymore now that all his possible Hades hints are out in the open anyway.

I have some doubts yet (among them the classic "Can it be this easy?"), but unless something drastic happens I'd be willing to vote for Mac toDay (though my track record of voting the same person twice in a row is rather terrible - most often the said person has turned out innocent. Unless it's Nog. )

I think I'll make a list now because I fear that I (and most others, for that matter) have been ignoring some players and concentrating on others. If I have time after that, I'll check through the posts of someone who is sliding by with hardly anyone noticing.


EDIT: x-ed with phantom

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Mac

I'm not sure I have the heart to tell you.

And there's another lover quote! Are you trying to make things difficult?

Originally Posted by Rikae

Actually, I read the "although it's frustrating to be alone with it" post (which also is eye catching for ending with the words "I am a lover") several times over before making up my mind that the wording, which is odd enough to jump out at me, was probably due to Mac using a second language and not any kind of hint. I'm still a bit torn about it, though.

Hmmm.... So perhaps he wasn't hinting that he was Hades, but rather that he was German.

On the subject of Steve- I said yesterday I didn't think he looked like Dionysus and I stick by that, so if Boro was the false Seer and dreamed of Steve then I believe he is innocent, as it's unlikely the false dream yielded the correct role. If Boro was the real Seer and dreamed Steve then I was at least right about him not being Dionysus, but obviously we should lynch him for Wolfdom. Bleh. Which is more likely?

I agree with Nerwen calling that one argument he made today "dodgy", but that's really all I've seen from him that gets my suspicion up.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by phantom

so if Boro was the false Seer and dreamed of Steve then I believe he is innocent, as it's unlikely the false dream yielded the correct role.

While I agree that Eonwe is probably not the cursed, the probability of the event that Eonwe has a (potentially) evil role is not affected by the outcome of the random experiment that determined the false seer's dream.

Originally Posted by phantom

Are you trying to make things difficult?

Me?

[Lalaith]

if Boro was the false Seer and dreamed of Steve then I believe he is innocent, as it's unlikely the false dream yielded the correct role

Correct me if I'm wrong, but if a Seer dreams of a Cursed, is he told that the player is an ord? So for Boro to have dreamt of Eonwe and believed him to be evil, it would be either as wolf or, arguably, lover?

[A Little Green]

LEANING INNOCENT:

Wilwa - Hasn't done anything to merit suspicion. That is to say, other than casting an apologetic-toned vote for BG. I didn't like that vote, but I'm not sure if it's wolvish or not.

Lottie - I'm inclined to believe her innocent at the moment, though I'd be happier with her if she explained why she's so convinced of Tum's furriness, and suspicious of Mac and Nog.

Nerwen - If she's a wolf I'll eat my hat. I know she has fooled me totally before, but right now I have no reason to suspect her. She's making way too much sense (though sure Nerwolf is capable of that too) and just generally not bothering to try to rub people the right way.

Rikae - Right now I'm more inclined to think she's innocent. As I wrote those words, though, I got the feeling that she's grinning an evil grin right now. Werewolf makes me paranoid.

NO GREAT IMPRESSION TO EITHER DIRECTION:

Kath - Too little data for me to say this or that. She was the first to vote BG, and did so because she wanted to go for somebody quiet and thought BG was the least constructive of the quiet ones. Really, that could go either way - it's understandable (if easy) reasoning for an innocent, but also smooth for a wolf.

Inzil - Is posting relatively actively but I have no read on him whatsoever. I think this has happened before. He's a strong candidate for the one I'm reading through if I have time, as I have no idea about him.

Nienna - I have a similar problem with her as with Inzil - I just have no read on her. I'd love to have a closer look at her if I have time.

Folwren - Again, I've seen too little of her to judge properly. Nothing that would stand out as wolvish.

autume - Inzil's analysis of her looked pretty bad. But then again, she's pretty new (I assume; I've never played with her before) and all the inconsistence might be just due to that. Not sure. I'd like to know Lottie's arguments against her.

Lalaith - Is sensible and sweet (the latter might be partly due to the cute avvie, though!) to the point of being scary. I have no idea about her. Another I'd love to check.

Shasta - Falls into the "too little data" -category.

Sally - Again, too little of substance to go on with. Doesn't look like a Sallywolf this far, though.

TOO MANY IMPRESSIONS AKA CAUSES A HEADACHE:

Mira - Hmm. I didn't like her vote (the 5th for BG), she stated quite openly she votes her for reasons other than actual suspicion:

Originally Posted by Mirakeeperwhatever :p

Who I probably will be voting for toDay unless something better comes up within the next hour or so:
Blind Guardian - don't be posting that you want people to provide you with substance and then don't do anything to spark discussion.

I understand the frustration, but still - we're supposed to be looking for wolves, aren't we? Boro's hint to her was really confusing, as it implied that she had a protective role. Now it's possible that he dreamed of her, but I see a couple of problems in that. Firstly, he must have been the false Seer or she must have missed the hint because obviously she didn't protect him; and secondly, it doesn't make sense for the Seer to make such a show of being the Seer just for the sake of getting someone to protect them for the next Night (when, had they kept their mouth shut about being the Seer, they wouldn't have needed protection in the first place). If anyone has any idea whatsoever of this whole confusing Mira-business, I'd be very interested to hear it as my own don't make the slightest bit of sense.

Eonwe - Another who keeps messing with my head. My gut says innocent, but some of the stuff that's going on about him.. Still, I'm more inclined to find him innocent than not. I'll put him down as headache-causing though anyway.

Nog - Argh. I disagree with most of what he says and some of his arguments are just way off. For possibly the first time in our common ww history, though, I'm not especially suspicious of him. His sudden jump on Mac still looks bad, though. It didn't look wolf-on-wolf to me, it was too random and too sudden to serve any purpose that I can think of. If Mac isn't a wolf I'll look harder on Nog; if Mac is a wolf, I'm just baffled. He messes with my head enough to make it to this category, though.

Phantom - He's either not a wolf, or else my initial thought was correct and he is, in fact, Hera. Right now I'm more inclined to think the former.

LEANING GUILTY:

Mac - Like I believe I said previously, I will vote for him toDay unless something dramatic happens before I go to bed. The lead I have on him is, after all, rather better founded than my suspicion of anyone else.


EDIT: Ouch x-ed since phantom's 353, you people post way too fast!