WW LXXIX: Fall From Olympus

[A Little Green]

Whoa. I kind of like coming here with a lot to say.. I'll start with Boro. Phantom's theory is interesting. The first thing that popped into my mind upon finding out that Boro was one of the Seers was that he dreamed Phantom was Hera. Why? I figured that "allied to the almighty Zeus" or however he phrased it would mean Hera, and he was talking about phantom at the time. (And please folks, don't club me in the head for thinking too simply. Not yet, at least.) But why would a Boroseer who has found a wolf a) make such obvious references to being a Seer and still b) leave such vague but obvious hints as to who the wolf is? Now if phantom indeed is Hera, the wolves will have spotted that immediately and done off with Boro (who they pretty much have now pinned down as the real Seer). But the thing is, Boro will have known this would happen if he makes such blatant hints and happens to be in fact the real Seer. So I'm thinking - maybe he did that on purpose, to see if the wolves attacked him - because if (or rather, when) they did, it would almost prove that they caught his hint, ergo phantom is proven to be a wolf.

Now, my theory, obviously, has a couple of flaws. The first and most obvious one is that Boro could have been the false seer (who still did the same or some different scheme), and the wolves just picked on the Seer hints. The second flaw is that I have no way of knowing exactly what Boro had in mind and could be way off the wall with this entire thing. Just something to think about. (I'm not even sure if I managed to write it in a way that makes the slightest bit of sense..)

I'll be back with some thoughts on yesterDay.


EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

[Lalaith]

Interesting ideas about Boro. I missed the Mira/Keeper comment that phantom picked up on, it's ambiguous to say the least. As for my thoughts - reading over the thread yesterday, I thought I had picked up on Hunter hints from Boro.

Wilwa and Mac know better, if they're wolves to try and pick a fight and lynch me this early, because they know I wouldn't go down easily and in the veyr least if I died they would follow. Wilwa I like slightly more than Greenie in all of it.

In hindsight, it is of course good Seer tactics to pretend to be a Hunter. But would any of the above-named, if indeed they were wolves, seemingly being threatened, have risked a Boro kill?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

In hindsight, it is of course good Seer tactics to pretend to be a Hunter. But would any of the above-named, if indeed they were wolves, seemingly being threatened, have risked a Boro kill?

Yes, it's an interesting little knot. Normally, you'd think the wolves would be safe in assuming it was a bluff– but then it seems they took his equally blatant Seer-hints seriously.

EDIT:X'd with Greenie.

[A Little Green]

Now, the Eonwe-Dionysus-thing bothered me. For the first thing, I think people (namely Nog and Lottie, but also others) were/are over-eager to pin him down as Dionysus, based on arguments that don't hold water. Like Eonwe himself pointed out, the cursed is on the village's side until they are turned, ie. they should have no reason whatsoever to hint at the wolves in the first place, let alone as openly as Eonwe did if you read his posts as hints.

Originally Posted by Nog

And if the one knew it beforehand there would be no problem with the spirit of the game as the problem is in the rules...

I totally disagree with this, but I think we're slipping to general rules discussion again if I start ranting about it.. Just to be fair, though, I might not agree with Nog's logic but I don't agree with Eonwe's, either:

Originally Posted by Eonwe

Much too obvious, as I said. And because he's sticking to this so much, maybe Nogrod's a wolf who's trying to double-bluff by suggesting that I'm the Cursed so that if it turns out that I am, he could seem like he was trying to help the village, while totally distancing himself from the wolves (who would probably try to keep it quiet). In fact, maybe this whole thing is something Nogrod decided to latch onto because doing this would make him seem so un-wolvish.

I wouldn't pin Nog down as wolvish, but rather as staying up way too late. He was behaving in an illogical way and pursuing the Eonwe thing way too much, but I'm not convinced it points to furriness. Eonwe's jump on him is understandable but I'm not sure about the validity of the argument. I'll rant some more on Nogrod in posts to come, I think.

As for Eonwe being a wolf Boroseer hinted at - I'm not sure. Could be, of course, but he doesn't strike me as particularly suspicious. Of course Boro could have hinted at him and just been the false Seer, or then he was the real Seer, dreamed of Eonwe, and I'm off my rocker. Argh. I could reread Eonwe I suppose, but then again, if I have the time to reread someone I'd prefer to try someone who escapes the genreal notice and isn't talked about all that much.

A rant about the voting yesterDay coming up!


EDIT: x-ed with Lalaith

[A Little Green]

Since no one has done this yet, here's the total voting tally from yesterDay.

Folwren --> Eonwe
Greenie --> Mac
Kath --> BeiGei
Lalaith --> Boro
Zil --> BeiGei 2
Nienna --> Eonwe 2
Sally --> BeiGei 3
Nog --> Nerwen
Wilwa --> BeiGei 4
Mira --> BeiGei 5
Rikae --> the phantom
Mc --> Nerwen 2
BeiGei --> Zil
Shasta --> Eonwe 3
Lottie --> Eonwe 4
Tum --> BeiGei 6
Boro --> Eonwe 5
Eonwe --> BeiGei 7
Nerwen --> Nogrod

My thoughts? Two bandwagons, neither of which was actually based on who people find wolvish. (The main argument against BG, from what I saw, was that she doesn't participate, against Eonwe that people think he is the cursed.) I don't like that at all. I mean, what's wrong with the good old practise of lynching people we think might be wolves? Another thing I'll do if I have time: look through all the voting posts and check the reasons behind the votes. Not all BG voters voted her because they didn't approve of her style, and not all Eonwe voters voted him because they thought he was Dionysus. Also, there was some fishy stuff in the non-bandwagonish votes too.


EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen and phantom

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by phantom

Greenie- your theory about Boro pointing to me as Hera has two major flaws.

I'll start with the obvious one- I'm not Hera. Now, you may say he is the false Seer and spotted me as Hera, or that I am lying, but that's where flaw number two comes in- the flaw that is the most obvious and provable to the rest of the village-

Boro himself negated the idea.

Boro made a point of saying that his "allied with Zeus" comment was a mistake (he had thought of Zeus as being allied with the good guys), plus he said later not to bother looking at the "Zeus" parts of his statement, as those parts were not important to his intentions.

I gave those quotes and examined them in my first post today if you'd like to read them.

Weren't you supposed to go to bed?

I did read those quotes. But 1) I stated, quite clearly I think, that the theory was "The first thing that popped into my mind upon finding out that Boro was one of the Seers", and at that point I didn't remember those quotes (and even after reading them I wanted to share what my initial thought was) 2) I'm not entirely convinced that he couldn't have negated the idea because of some scheme or other, 3) having once in my life created a theory of some kind I wanted to share it , 4) I thought the way you nicely skipped the idea that Boro was hinting at you was fishy, and 5) I wanted to see how you react to me presenting such a theory. Enough?


EDIT: x-ed with Nerwen

[A Little Green]

Just to finish commenting on stuff people said yesterDay after I went to sleep.

Originally Posted by Nog, about Nerwen

Also, if she is a wolf I doubt Rikae or/and Mac is one. And that would give us one or two people we could more or less trust, at least in the first Days.

Could you explain this? I don't follow your logic I'm afraid.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I really want Tum lynched; I'm fairly sure she's a wolf.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I want Mac lynched; he seems furry.

Do you have reasons for these, or are they just gut-feelings? The following is what I found for your suspicion of Mac:

Originally Posted by Lottie

Mac - feels slightly off in all his posts, and isn't really making many helpful posts. Might vote for him.

I don't like that logic (insofar as saying someone is "feeling slightly off" includes a logic), especially as I think it appeared only after I voiced some suspicion about Mac. The same goes for Nog, actually - the way he jumped on my suspicion of Mac was fishy and quite uncharacteristical of him. (Usually he doesn't trust a word I say!) It made me think worse of him and better of Mac, actually.


EDIT: x-ed with phantom and 2x Lal

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lal

Greenie, like you I was unimpressed by the BG voters - to me she was newbie-ish, not wolf-ish - but but there were seven of them and they can't all be wolves. It was an easy first-day option for innocents and wolves alike, I guess.

I know. The thing is, such easy bandwagons are tricky just because they are an easy option for an innocent, and a nice hiding-place for a wolf. Also, they are unlikely to catch us a wolf. While I know that the chances of catching a wolf on Day 1 are very slim, I'd prefer that it was at least tried.

Originally Posted by Lal

In other news, I think these 7am (GMT) deadlines are going to be difficult for the handful of us on this side of the Atlantic. Most of the discussion/events of the Day seem to happen after we vote and go to bed...

Yeah, it's annoying. The DL is 9 am for me, which is pretty much the worst possible. Possibly, later on in the game, I'll try going to bed really early and then getting up around six to play for the last minutes (after reading a host of pages first).


EDIT: x-ed with phantom

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by phantom

Up until this comment you were doing just fine, but this statement makes me suspect you're pushing a bit.

How can you possibly say I SKIPPED it when I fully examined his first post and his mention of me right from the beginning? Did you read my post? I said quite clearly that it was time to examine who he dreamed of, and stated that I am the only person mentioned in his first post, and then proceeded to quote his first post as well as two other statements he made regarding that post. I did not skip his mention of me. Not by a long shot, and you implying that I did seems like you're just trying to stir something up.

The fact is, given what he said in the post and his explanations about the post later he was definitely not giving a remotely clear idea of affiliation, and so I said so and moved on.

Awh, apparently "skipped" was the wrong choice of words. What I meant was not that you deliberately failed to mention Boro's mention of you (which you didn't do, which anyone who is able to read could see easily enough, so trying to mislead people by that would be pretty stupid). What I meant was simply that you discarded the possibility rather easily. You had an argument for it, I grant you (the fact that Boro himself denied any hint in those words about you and Zeus), but I'm not entirely conviced by it. Just for the record, though, I'm not entirely convinced about my own theory, either.

Originally Posted by phantom

In a later post he mentions you, saying, "Greenie looks more or less ok". That statement I actually did skip. Why aren't you accusing me of skipping that quote?

Because a) I didn't remember the existence of that quote, and b) I don't think it's very relevant if the issue is who Boro might have dreamed of. I mean, who would make a seer hint and say someone looks more or less ok? Just asking.


EDIT: x.ed with Nerwen and phantom

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Ah, Phantom is still here, sorry for implying you were European.

Also, I am still here.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Just to finish commenting on stuff people said yesterDay after I went to sleep.

Could you explain this? I don't follow your logic I'm afraid.

I suppose he means that Mac was after me, and Rikae defending Mac... but that's weirdly naive reasoning, from an experienced player.

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Also, I am still here.

But wait, aren't you Austrian?
*snicker*

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Greenie

apparently "skipped" was the wrong choice of words... What I meant was simply that you discarded the possibility rather easily.

Ah, well then, all I can say to that is that I was attempting to examine Boro's posts fully and accurately. As you said yourself, "You had an argument for it, I grant you". Given the direct quotes the case seemed rather clear cut to me, so yes, I discarded it quite easily. You can say you're not entirely convinced by Boro's explanations about his first post (which is what my entire position is based upon), but if you're not going to believe what Boro said, why in the world would you suspect someone based upon his words?

And you needn't have answered my comment about what Boro said regarding you. I was just being petty and sarcastic. I thought it appropriate since I knew coming into the game you were wondering if, after meeting me in RL, you would find me more or less tolerable.

Okay... I think I'm feeling tired enough to fall asleep now. See you in about five hours.

[Inziladun]

Well, interesting stuff. Boro's Seer hints appear to have gotten more overt late in the Day, yet he still wasn't throwing a great deal of suspicion on anyone.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Eonwe and Lalaith feel a little less good, Eonwe's been talked enough and Lalaith, while I feel the most wary about her clinging to my Zeus post for her vote. It's too crappy of a feeling to vote for her, 'specially since she's this is her first time back in a while. Need more time on her.

Puts Lal and steve basically in the same category, looking "less good", but not very pointed toward either.

Which makes the sudden vote for Eönwë, and his reasoning for it, a little jarring.

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I said Blind was about a 5 on the scale of 1 to 10. Eonwe's looking like a "neg" 4, so

++Eonwe

"'Neg' 4"? Meaning not at all valuable to the village. It's at odds with what Boro said previously. I have to think if Eönwë had been Boro's dream he would have been more aggressive with his accusations, especially when there had already been some suspicion (and votes) for him. Yet we have the "Neg 4", which seems rather emphatic.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Do you have reasons for these, or are they just gut-feelings?

Lottie was pointing at tum yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Loslote

BeiGei voters - especially the later ones - really really need to be looked at toMorrow. I'd say most especially Tum, but that's just personal suspicion.

And kept it up toDay.

Originally Posted by Loslote

I want to see dead because they are evil, precious, evil:
Tum
Nog
Mac?

If we lynch Tum, I would be very very happy. If we lynch Nog, I would be nearly as happy. If we lynch Mac, I would not argue against this. If we lynch anyone else, I would headdesk.

I've only skimmed what happened after I went to bed Day 1, but if I'd been around, I probably would have voted for tum myself. I want to go back and look at what all she said.

x/d with Rikae x 3

[Kath]

Ok, final thoughts.

Mira - I don't really know. If Nerwen's a wolf I think Mira more likely to be, but then she's most likely too good a player to leave such obvious trails. Not sure.

Inzil - just wondering about the choice of BG over Mac. If that's explained well then I'm leaning innocent.

Nienna - was consistent but not so much involved. Not sure.

Nerwen - don't know. Avoiding the BG/Nog thing completely can equally be a sign of a confused innocent or an avoiding wolf. Nerwen I kind of doubt would be an avoiding wolf. I don't doubt she'd be a wolf masquerading as a confused innocent. Not sure about her. Would like to know her role as I find others dependent on it. But that's not a good enough reason for a lynch really.

Folwren - feels innocent. Could be tricksy and false. If a wolf then I think Nerwen innocent. Not sure.

Lalaith - somehow avoided all the hint talk that surrounded Boro/Nerwen/Eonwe. Interesting. A wolf with packmates avoiding it? Or had everyone decided hints meant nothing by now?

Greenie - could have been a wolf going after a beleaguered Mac. Could have been an innocent misunderstanding a Gifted way of playing. Not sure.

Shasta - nothing to go on there.

phantom - well I don't think he's Zeus. Not sure if he's a wolf.

sally - again another who got away with hints. Well, not so much hints as kind of announcing she has some kind of innocent role.

So:
I'd be interested to find out Nerwen's role because I think it will give out quite a lot of information. Lalaith I think could be wolvish. sally could easily be bluffing. Deeper looks at these three tomorrow.

And now to bed.

[the phantom]

Quickly, on the voting-

BG was too obvious a target to lynch on Day 1 to actually hold it against anyone who did it. If it weren't for the fact that I'd never played with her before I imagine I would've voted that direction too. I mean, it was Day 1 after all. You know- the day that everyone complains is random. If you have a chance to off a player that is playing in a way that you feel won't help the village, Day 1 is the perfect time for it.

That isn't to say those voters are off my list of suspicion, just that the vote itself will not tip the scales in my book.

Unless I am correct about Boro dreaming Eonwe as a WW, in which case I would say Tum's vote is the one that might stand out (but obviously we would not want to lynch her on those grounds before deciding whether or not Steve is guilty).

[the phantom]

Originally Posted by Greenie

Weren't you supposed to go to bed?

Unfortunately I screwed myself up a bit to stay up to the deadline, and I guess I did too good a job. Bleh. I'm going to regret these hours tomorrow.

Originally Posted by Greenie

I thought the way you nicely skipped the idea that Boro was hinting at you was fishy

Up until this comment you were doing just fine, but this statement makes me suspect you're pushing a bit.

How can you possibly say I SKIPPED it when I fully examined his first post and his mention of me right from the beginning? Did you read my post? I said quite clearly that it was time to examine who he dreamed of, and stated that I am the only person mentioned in his first post, and then proceeded to quote his first post as well as two other statements he made regarding that post. I did not skip his mention of me. Not by a long shot, and you implying that I did seems like you're just trying to stir something up.

The fact is, given what he said in the post and his explanations about the post later he was definitely not giving a remotely clear idea of affiliation, and so I said so and moved on.

In a later post he mentions you, saying, "Greenie looks more or less ok". That statement I actually did skip. Why aren't you accusing me of skipping that quote?

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Ah, Phantom is still here, sorry for implying you were European.

It's okay. It's slightly better than being called a Canadian.

[Lalaith]

Is it just Europeans around right now?
Greenie, like you I was unimpressed by the BG voters - to me she was newbie-ish, not wolf-ish - but but there were seven of them and they can't all be wolves. It was an easy first-day option for innocents and wolves alike, I guess. The Eonwe bandwaggon I have more sympathy with, as there was some reasoning behind it.

My own rationale for voting Boro was that I thought that something was up with him, he was trying to attract attention to himself. For want of any better ideas about anyone else, I wanted to see if anyone would defend him. (His Hunteresque comment came after I went to bed)

Reading through the thread, I am finding Mac, Wilwa, Loslote and Nogrod (before it got too late, that is...!) looking helpful.
I am finding Keeper/Mira, Sally and autume rather strange.

In other news, I think these 7am (GMT) deadlines are going to be difficult for the handful of us on this side of the Atlantic. Most of the discussion/events of the Day seem to happen after we vote and go to bed...

[Lalaith]

Ah, Phantom is still here, sorry for implying you were European.

[the phantom]

Greenie- your theory about Boro pointing to me as Hera has two major flaws.

I'll start with the obvious one- I'm not Hera. Now, you may say he is the false Seer and spotted me as Hera, or that I am lying, but that's where flaw number two comes in- the flaw that is the most obvious and provable to the rest of the village-

Boro himself negated the idea.

Boro made a point of saying that his "allied with Zeus" comment was a mistake (he had thought of Zeus as being allied with the good guys), plus he said later not to bother looking at the "Zeus" parts of his statement, as those parts were not important to his intentions.

I gave those quotes and examined them in my first post today if you'd like to read them.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Phantom's theory is interesting. The first thing that popped into my mind upon finding out that Boro was one of the Seers was that he dreamed Phantom was Hera. Why? I figured that "allied to the almighty Zeus" or however he phrased it would mean Hera, and he was talking about phantom at the time. (And please folks, don't club me in the head for thinking too simply. Not yet, at least.) But why would a Boroseer who has found a wolf a) make such obvious references to being a Seer and still b) leave such vague but obvious hints as to who the wolf is? Now if phantom indeed is Hera, the wolves will have spotted that immediately and done off with Boro (who they pretty much have now pinned down as the real Seer). But the thing is, Boro will have known this would happen if he makes such blatant hints and happens to be in fact the real Seer. So I'm thinking - maybe he did that on purpose, to see if the wolves attacked him - because if (or rather, when) they did, it would almost prove that they caught his hint, ergo phantom is proven to be a wolf.

I hadn't thought of that. It might explain Boro's odd phrasing, with all three "alliances" being basically the same thing.

However, against the possibility of Boro's having dreamed a wolf at all is this:

If you're the Seer, and you want to know whether you're the genuine article, you can find out by the death of someone you dreamed. Yes, there's a possibility you might still be the False Seer, right by chance, but that's very small at this stage. (It increases as the village shrinks, but that's all the more reason to get cracking). Therefore, if you dreamed a baddie, it makes sense for you to push hard for his-or-her lynching. Now, Boro made no real effort to get the phantom, or indeed anyone, lynched (his comments on Steve came very late in the Day). Therefore I should say that he probably didn't dream a wolf.

...Except that I so far haven't come up with any satisfying explanation for what Boro did yesterDay. So maybe I shouldn't be counting on him making sense, according to my lights.

EDIT:X'd since last post; added comment.