WW LXXVII: The Metamorphs of Wolf-562-e

[Shastanis Althreduin]

On Paranoia - An analysis of Bear-ery

Now, this analysis will be shaded a bit differently than my previous ones. Given that bears are much harder to catch than wolves, this analysis will concentrate more on underlying attitudes than hard cold data.

Before I even start with the post-by-post analysis, Paranoia has the least amount of posts of any player, living or dead, save Mira who was modkilled for not being able to participate. That seems to be a point against him already, since bears are likely to not want to draw attention to themselves.

#30 - IC banter. In it, he scolds Eomer for his baseless accusations against BG, mentions that BG's alignment will be known "sooner or later", and IC-accuses Rikae.

#99 - Kind of comes down hard on BG here.

Originally Posted by Paranoia

I bet a metamorph version of her couldn't resist the same urges to act like a plum fool.

Also claims Eomer's vote is "OMGUS" (translated as "Oh my gosh, you suck" and is commonly used to denote a vote for personal reasons rather than game-related ones... i.e. revenge votes), but it's not, not really. Explains that he "didn't have much time", which may be true, but it also offers a reason for a wereBear not to be as active as he/she might be normally. Puts suspicion on Sally's vote. Ends up voting BG, and does a list. Puts myself and Izzy both in the "Mostly Harmless" category. This is slightly meta and possibly a disregardable point, but I can't help but wonder if a Bearanoia wasn't making an attempt there to butter up the two people he knows outside BD.

#105 - Continues explaining why BG's explanation of her list isn't satisfactory. I can't say much about this, given that I did the same thing, but I've noticed that a commonly-used Bearish tactic is to concentrate on one subject to the exclusion of all else to give the appearance of being helpful.

#211 - Mega-post, defending himself against Pitch and condemning Wilwa. He didn't do too much else during this day, and this was an awfully zealous defense... over-zealous, maybe? Were-Bears can't afford to gather too much suspicion - they're their only chance to win, after all. Maybe Noia was trying to defuse suspicion of him at the root. He also is "very much inclined to think" Lottie innocent. Lottie was a pretty clear discussion leader, given how much she posted - possibly more buttering-up?

#217 - Helps winty with coding.

#222 - Helps winty with coding.

#248 - Several things here, so let me quote:

Originally Posted by Paranoia

I'd like to say day 3, and two metamorphs down; fantastic work, crew. i'd also like to say losing Lottie is quite a blow; two gifted down in two days does not make me a happy camper, though losing the telepath was partially my bad.

There is a hitch in whatever killed "Lieutenant Sally" But that's not our primary concern as of this moment; if it's not obvious.

Now, I'd like Pitch to pop up and answer my questions to him in that big rambling nightmare of a post I made at the end of day 2.

I'd also like to see more of Shasta's analysis. And Rikae's.

In the meanwhile, I'm going back to Lottie's posts to see if there's much of anything there that might be of use; with only one metamorph left, I doubt she would have been murdered to redirect suspicion as much as it's likely she was murdered to get suspicion off of someone. And last I checked, she had definite suspicions of Izzy.

First off, I get what Rikae said about the "smugness". It's almost as if a bearaNoia is congratulating us for getting rid of threats to him.

Secondly, the "oh the bear's not a threat" tone of his second line.

Thirdly, how he asks Pitch, myself, and Rikae for such-and-such. This is a tactic I've used before myself - it's a way to look like you're participating, but actually you're getting others to act as your smokescreen.


Conclusion - well, I can't see any reason for Noia to not be the bear, and I've got a pretty good feeling based on what he's said that he is... so I'm thinking I'll probably vote him today and Pitch tomorrow.

[Paranoia]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

On Paranoia - An analysis of Bear-ery

Now, this analysis will be shaded a bit differently than my previous ones. Given that bears are much harder to catch than wolves, this analysis will concentrate more on underlying attitudes than hard cold data.

Before I even start with the post-by-post analysis, Paranoia has the least amount of posts of any player, living or dead, save Mira who was modkilled for not being able to participate. That seems to be a point against him already, since bears are likely to not want to draw attention to themselves.

And I had the least amount of posts last game too; post count != bear or Morph, Tanner.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

#30 - IC banter. In it, he scolds Eomer for his baseless accusations against BG, mentions that BG's alignment will be known "sooner or later", and IC-accuses Rikae.

#99 - Kind of comes down hard on BG here.



Also claims Eomer's vote is "OMGUS" (translated as "Oh my gosh, you suck" and is commonly used to denote a vote for personal reasons rather than game-related ones... i.e. revenge votes), but it's not, not really. Explains that he "didn't have much time", which may be true, but it also offers a reason for a wereBear not to be as active as he/she might be normally. Puts suspicion on Sally's vote. Ends up voting BG, and does a list. Puts myself and Izzy both in the "Mostly Harmless" category. This is slightly meta and possibly a disregardable point, but I can't help but wonder if a Bearanoia wasn't making an attempt there to butter up the two people he knows outside BD.

In case you hadn't noticed by the nice little note next to Eomer's name, I was basing a whole lot of my suspicions based on BG's roleflip; bg flipped town. People shifted spots.

Originally Posted by Shasta

#105 - Continues explaining why BG's explanation of her list isn't satisfactory. I can't say much about this, given that I did the same thing, but I've noticed that a commonly-used Bearish tactic is to concentrate on one subject to the exclusion of all else to give the appearance of being helpful.

Uh, I did a whole lot more than just explain why BG's explanation was unsatisfactory. I explained what else about her I found suspicious. read things through before condemning me on one point.

Originally Posted by Shasta

#211 - Mega-post, defending himself against Pitch and condemning Wilwa. He didn't do too much else during this day, and this was an awfully zealous defense... over-zealous, maybe? Were-Bears can't afford to gather too much suspicion - they're their only chance to win, after all. Maybe Noia was trying to defuse suspicion of him at the root. He also is "very much inclined to think" Lottie innocent. Lottie was a pretty clear discussion leader, given how much she posted - possibly more buttering-up?

Well let's see. Of course it's going to be a zealous defense, considering I am my only 'for sure' innocent. Who else can I rely on to defend myself except myself? Again, defending oneself is all well and good; if you have an issue with me, pick out how I was suspicious in defending myself. And yeah, I was. Based primarily on interactions with her and how she was handling herself this round rather than the last one just made me instinctively think she was innocent.

#217 - Helps winty with coding.

#222 - Helps winty with coding.

#248 - Several things here, so let me quote:



First off, I get what Rikae said about the "smugness". It's almost as if a bearaNoia is congratulating us for getting rid of threats to him.
[/quote] Why yes, I am congratulating you on getting rid of threats to the, you know. town.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Secondly, the "oh the bear's not a threat" tone of his second line.

I said there was still the issue of what killed Sally. I, however, believe the potential for the traitor to meet up with the morph to be a more pressing threat. Which it is.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Thirdly, how he asks Pitch, myself, and Rikae for such-and-such. This is a tactic I've used before myself - it's a way to look like you're participating, but actually you're getting others to act as your smokescreen.

Fun fact. I work from 8 until 4:30. I leave my apartment at about 7ish in the morning. I usually don't get time to get online until late. I asked pitch to respond to my accusations at the end of day 2. I asked you and Rikae to keep it up because I liked what you were doing.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Conclusion - well, I can't see any reason for Noia to not be the bear, and I've got a pretty good feeling based on what he's said that he is... so I'm thinking I'll probably vote him today and Pitch tomorrow.

You could at least wait for me to respond, you know; your points are all really based on taking me out of context and using one post, and moreover, one line in specific to condemn me as the bear.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Paranoia, my analysis was based mainly on attitudes rather than actions, as that is how one catches a Werebear. And in my opinion, your attitudes have been pretty Bear-ish. You don't have to get all sarcastic the moment someone suspects you, you know. That's another evil tactic - "everyone who suspects me is an idiot".

[Paranoia]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Paranoia, my analysis was based mainly on attitudes rather than actions, as that is how one catches a Werebear. And in my opinion, your attitudes have been pretty Bear-ish. You don't have to get all sarcastic the moment someone suspects you, you know. That's another evil tactic - "everyone who suspects me is an idiot".

Okay tanner. You've played with me before. You have been wrong about me before. You are wrong once more, and while you do have legitimate points, I don't like the fact you're ignoring counter points because you are once more so sure I'm evil. and is no one else worried about Patch voting me just as soon as he got a second vote? Self preservation is fine and all but it didn't even read like that, more like he was trying to follow behind Shasta.

[satansaloser2005]

Who is this Tanner person? Shasta, do you know him/her? I'm very confused!

[Paranoia]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Who is this Tanner person? Shasta, do you know him/her? I'm very confused!

gah. More of my time from Spies interfering with how I refer to people. :x

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Paranoia

Okay tanner. You've played with me before. You have been wrong about me before. You are wrong once more, and while you do have legitimate points, I don't like the fact you're ignoring counter points because you are once more so sure I'm evil. and is no one else worried about Patch voting me just as soon as he got a second vote? Self preservation is fine and all but it didn't even read like that, more like he was trying to follow behind Shasta.

That's because the counter-points you've given have all been to defend your actions. A bear's actions are basically unimpeachable - they can play the game like an innocent with a nightkill. I think you're a bear because of your attitudes. Two entirely different things. And bringing past games into your defense is not helping you.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Paranoia

Okay tanner. You've played with me before. You have been wrong about me before. You are wrong once more, and while you do have legitimate points, I don't like the fact you're ignoring counter points because you are once more so sure I'm evil. and is no one else worried about Patch voting me just as soon as he got a second vote? Self preservation is fine and all but it didn't even read like that, more like he was trying to follow behind Shasta.

Hm, so sure that Shasta isn't evil, are you?

As for Pitch... not only self-preservation, but the morph's gotta get rid of the bear eventually, too, doesn't xe?

[Paranoia]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Hm, so sure that Shasta isn't evil, are you?

As for Pitch... not only self-preservation, but the morph's gotta get rid of the bear eventually, too, doesn't xe?

Yeah, but I had a distinct feeling something like this was going to happen as soon as I read that Lottie had died. Let's take this more into context. Day 2: I had Wilwa (Morph) and (Patch *probable traitor perhaps the bear*) Both on my case. That case immediately fell through. This day the first thing that comes up is people suspecting me of being the bear and that lynching a bear suspect is better than lynching the wolf/traitor pair because of some possibly undefined powers, and furthermore, most of the argument used against me is based on my "attitude", rather than hard evidence, because a "bear is harder to find." There's an issue here. Finding the bear today is not the best case scenario. Finding the last morph is. By focusing his search on the bear, Shasta is essentially trying to give the last morph a free pass today. In this way, I personally think that Shasta is the last morph, or the traitor. Izzy is lower on my suspect list because I think she would have made a jump onto the Wilwa wagon and tried linking Rikae and Wilwa together based on Rikae's vote on her.

As much as it stands, I think Pitch isn't a likely metamorph... I find him a more likely werebear then a morph, or an even more likely traitor.

either way, I am flat out voting ++Pitch because I've been forced into a position where if I don't vote counter to the wagon on me a known (at least to myself) innocent will die.

Edit: Xed with Shasta, Rikae, and Izzy

[Isabellkya]

Shasta.
How in the world can you claim that an OMGUS vote is not game related; when simply the act of voting someone for voting for you - is game related. Voting a person with the reason that they punched you in the arm the day before at school.. or something like that would be more considered not game related. But the mere act of placing a vote for someone is game related. Arguably the most 'game related' act of the game. Savvy?

Uh.. you just quote the same quote twice. xD
Ah okay, it was corrected. Why do I need to clarify, what I said is pretty clear. You went into your analysis with Paranoia pegged as the WereBorg; and thusly essentially cherry picked the actions/"attitudes" which fit your theory.

Yes, the first is speculation. But it's well-founded speculation. The Bear's game is over at any time if chosen randomly by the Morph's for a kill, or if bandwagoned on while unable to post, or any number of unfair reasons that have nothing to do with their gameplay, and that's entirely unfair to the player, so why wouldn't the Bear have some kind of advantage. The Morphs have numbers - what might the Bear have to compensate? They have to have some shot at winning. The second question is based on the wording of the Assassin role, which makes no mention of the Bear role at all, so I don't think it affects the Bear role in any way.

Your entire wording here stinks. A lot. You are personalizing the WereBorg. I responded to the word usage in my last post.

"plus the Morph's only got their kill left"
The way you said this, was as if they started with more. 'only' specifically.

I never said you claimed timezone difference. But that is what happened between Paranoia and Pitch. He had to vote for Paranoia before the chance of a rebuttal, because of time zone differences. You however, can not fit under that category. So you admit to strategizing your vote.. and nonetheless attempting to work with one of your chief suspects? Very town of you.

Yes, past games are meta. However YOU brought it up - and used it is a possible point against him. If it didn't matter because it was meta - you never would of brought it up in the first place. But the fact that you mentioned it in your analysis of him; implies that you used it in your thought process.

"Puts myself and Izzy both in the "Mostly Harmless" category. This is slightly meta and possibly a disregardable point, but I can't help but wonder if a Bearanoia wasn't making an attempt there to butter up the two people he knows outside BD."

You also attribute the WereBorg attitudes to Paranoia, from what I gather - past games. Meta, no? HasParanoia seen a WereBorg before? How do you reconcile that with your theory? That since Paranoia has not seen a WereBorg- would therefore by default fit the 'standardized' actions of what a wereBorg would/n't do?

Considering that part of your theory rests on the Assassin incapable of harming the WereBorg - why have you not asked the mod?

I got the name WereBorg from I believe something that Pitch said. He say CyberBear or BearCyber or something like that. I do recall from the plot (correctly I believe) that the WereBorg was slightly injured by Loslote and she saw metal underneath instead of bone. I used WereBorg because it seemed a simpler name to type out... than cyberbear or something.

Hit close to your WereBorg role name Shasta?

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Izzy

You also attribute the WereBorg attitudes to Paranoia, from what I gather - past games. Meta, no? HasParanoia seen a WereBorg before? How do you reconcile that with your theory? That since Paranoia has not seen a WereBorg- would therefore by default fit the 'standardized' actions of what a wereBorg would/n't do?

What...the...heck? Ok, this is what I'm talking about. I can't speak for Shasta, but to me, a "[role]-attitude" has nothing to do with some kind of arbitrary "standardized actions" that someone does or does not know about (I mean, seriously? What??!) but with the nature of the role itself... um, you know, like, the knowledge the player has, what they have to do to win... things like that.
This is actually an awful lot like your inability to comprehend the difference between a wolf's or an ordo's considerations in voting on Day 1. You're working from such a... simplistic... view of the game, and it never seems to become any more complex.

Eh, well, I'd better stop talking about this before I say something I regret.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Izzy

Shasta.
How in the world can you claim that an OMGUS vote is not game related; when simply the act of voting someone for voting for you - is game related. Voting a person with the reason that they punched you in the arm the day before at school.. or something like that would be more considered not game related. But the mere act of placing a vote for someone is game related. Arguably the most 'game related' act of the game. Savvy?

How dare I get into semantics with you...

Okay. Yes, voting is game related. However, the reason for the vote (in this case, because someone else voted you first) is not related to someone's role, or whether or not someone is suspicious - it's not related to the game at all. Get it?

Originally Posted by Izzy

You went into your analysis with Paranoia pegged as the WereBorg; and thusly essentially cherry picked the actions/"attitudes" which fit your theory.

No, I didn't. I'm honestly not sure what else to say here, other than that you're wrong.

Originally Posted by Izzy

Your entire wording here stinks. A lot. You are personalizing the WereBorg.

So? Sure, I could be wrong, and the Bear could be just as powerful as a lone Morph. But given all the secret roles and power twists in this game, I sincerely doubt it.

Originally Posted by Izzy

"plus the Morph's only got their kill left"
The way you said this, was as if they started with more. 'only' specifically.

The Morphs started with a numerical advantage - I don't see them starting with anything else. If I was unclear in my wording, I apologize.

Originally Posted by Izzy

So you admit to strategizing your vote.. and nonetheless attempting to work with one of your chief suspects? Very town of you.

In a three-party game? Sure, why not? I don't see what's so particularly suspicious about it. Pitch was getting ready to have to leave, and in essence would have thrown away his vote - so I put it to use on my other suspect. Big deal. Yes, in order to get Pitch's vote on Paranoia, I had to vote before Paranoia could defend himself, and for that I apologize, but it doesn't change my suspicion of him, and he could very well convince others of his innocence anyway. Pitch already has more votes than he does.

Originally Posted by Izzy

Yes, past games are meta. However YOU brought it up - and used it is a possible point against him. If it didn't matter because it was meta - you never would of brought it up in the first place. But the fact that you mentioned it in your analysis of him; implies that you used it in your thought process.

Insofar as I was going through each of Paranoia's posts and typing up my thoughts as I thought them, stream-of-consciousness style, then yes, I used it in my thought process. However, I also recognized it for what it was and acted accordingly - you can feel free to disregard that statement if you wish. It doesn't diminish the validity of my other points.

Originally Posted by Izzy

You also attribute the WereBorg attitudes to Paranoia, from what I gather - past games. Meta, no? HasParanoia seen a WereBorg before? How do you reconcile that with your theory? That since Paranoia has not seen a WereBorg- would therefore by default fit the 'standardized' actions of what a wereBorg would/n't do?

In that one point, yes. I have plenty of others, I think. And has Paranoia been a lone baddie before? Yes, he has. That's not a point in favor of or against him, it's an answer to your question.

Originally Posted by Izzy

Considering that part of your theory rests on the Assassin incapable of harming the WereBorg - why have you not asked the mod?

Because I thought it was obvious.

Originally Posted by Izzy

Hit close to your WereBorg role name Shasta?

No. I kind of translate this universe to Star Trek (even though I'm not familiar with it overmuch) and I seem to recall there being Borg in StarTrek... so was wondering if you had slipped.