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Visit The *EVEN NEWER* Barrow-Downs Photo Page |
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#1 | |
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Wisest of the Noldor
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The following is more a personal thinking out post– obviously half the logic here rests on my being innocent, and only the wolf (or wolves) knows I'm telling the truth: Now, about yesterDay: so there were three lynch-candidates. Of those, I happen to know that the only one who could have been a wolf is Skip. So Wolf 4 I think, more likely to be among the bandwagon-hoppers than those who really pushed to lynch Morsul or me. (Legate? Mira? Skip himself? Lommy?) This logic would, then, rule out Shasta, Brinn or Aganbeing a wolf yesterDay. (But that's still quite a big assumption– they're all experienced players who might deliberately do the opposite of what you'd expect.)
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#2 | |
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Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV |
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#3 |
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Wisest of the Noldor
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Nah. Actually I suspect everyone except Lottie. I'm just trying to think things through.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#4 | |
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The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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2. He might well. He did that to his innocent team, now didn't he?
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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#5 |
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Wisest of the Noldor
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See, that's the other thing about Brinniel– she sounded like she knew Morsul was innocent.
And I guess the wolf would care which innocent got lynched if it seemed likely one was the Unicorn. But then, she suspected me before that came up. So... still on the fence.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#6 | |
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shadow of a doubt
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Back on the streets
Posts: 1,125
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If a cursed was struck tonight the question is whether he or she first died and then rose up as a wolf or merely turned into a wolf without dying. The latter seems more likely to me if it wasn't a ranger-save, and wouldn't require the role to be revealed. Otherwise the narration would have to tell us that someone was turned into a wolf tonight. Ultimately, there's no way of knowing unless Wilwa tells us. In any case we need to focus on smoking out the last remaining wolf. If he or she then has a cub left in the litter we deal with that one too.
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"You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan |
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#7 | |
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Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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wolf: *stalks towards cursed* "Heya mate I'm here to kill you rawr!" cursed: "Yikes!" wolf: *bites* cursed: *sprouts fur* "Omigod I didn't die!" wolf: "Let's go kick some village butt yay!" So basically the cursed didn't die, ergo there's no need to reveal her role (and doing that would kind of undermine the point of having a cursed anyway). It will be revealed when/if she's lynched. And everybody except the wolf/wolves and the gifteds sleep tightly at night and don't know what exactly has been going on... so it's understandable wilwa didn't tell us any more. However because this is a game, we have a right to be curious and try to pester her until she reveals stuff. ![]()
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. |
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#8 | ||||
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Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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And the ranger can't protect herself. Quote:
Whether the cursed was turned or not, our safest bet is to try to find the fourth wolf instead of arguing what happened in the night. Either wilwa tells us or not. I'd rather consider today the continuation of yesterday with practically no new information - yeah Morsul died but it's hardly surprising he was innocent. So, 10 of us alive now. In the worst case scenario (no ranger saves, no unicorn kill/unicorn doesn't bring anyone back), if there's just one wolf left she has to survive for five days. If there are two wolves, however, they have to stay alive for three days. So I'd say we can afford one mislynch, at most two. And our situation becomes considerably worse if the unicorn brings Fea back. Quote:
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It's possible but better not to count on it. And if the cursed was turned, it would be in the fourth wolf's interests to give us a false sense of safety. Which means your comment made you rise again on my suspicion list. And you sounded like you knew Glirdan was a wolf.
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. Last edited by Aganzir; 04-18-2010 at 05:03 AM. Reason: xed with skip |
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#9 | ||||||||||
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Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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So... thanks for the answers, although you mostly just commented on my case and only answered a few of the questions I asked you. Quote:
What does your comment about wolf tactics tending to run in cycles actually mean and could you give some examples? Quote:
You said you wouldn't ignore the Lottie-voters (Lommy, Green & Legate) because the circumstances of the bandwagon were odd. Why were they odd? Quote:
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When I came I just skimmed through Nerwen's answers and was like alright she seems to be making sense... But it quite looks like she had tried to avoid certain questions. Which doesn't make me feel any better about her. I agree with Legate the remaining gifteds could maybe start to consider revealing... There are 10 of us now and if they revealed, it would leave only 7 (or 6, if the ranger made a succesful save and was told of it) unknown people. Yes it would make finding the cursed easier for the wolf (unless she already did it), but at the same time it would narrow the field of potential wolves. Quote:
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I like Shasta's analysis of Mira.. If Nerwen is not a wolf, Mira would probably be my second bet. Quote:
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. |
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#10 | |
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shadow of a doubt
Join Date: Jan 2008
Location: Back on the streets
Posts: 1,125
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"You can always come back, but you can't come back all the way" ~ Bob Dylan |
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#11 | |
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Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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![]() I'm not urging anybody to dump their retraction (like I did). But especially if there are more wolves (who can communicate at night), they can use their retractions to lynch somebody they want (eg instead of one of them), which in turn can help them to win. Basically they can plan strategies that depend on the retractions. Innocents can't do the same because we don't have the necessary knowledge (ie it's not almost all the same to us who gets lynched) nor the means of communication (apart from the Sheriffs) which means the retractions are not as useful to us as they can be to the wolves. Speaking of which... Nerwen and I don't have ours left, everybody else has.
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. Last edited by Aganzir; 04-18-2010 at 02:16 PM. Reason: xed with Lommy |
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#12 | ||||
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Wisest of the Noldor
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Agan–
I have answered every point of yours that I could see. If there were other points I didn't deliberately ignore them, I just didn't recognise them as points. Quote:
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Do you know who else pursued another player relentlessly for saying something like, "we should scrutinize winty's vote?" That's right. Nogwolf. After innocent Zil. Quote:
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All your points are like this, Agan. They're taking extremely minor things I've said and blowing them out of all proportion. There's so many that anyone skimming your posts probably thinks you've made an awesome watertight case against me. And yes, I'm angry now. I'm feeling extremely frustrated with this situation. What annoys me is that I have played an excellent game in terms of wolf-spotting, and my reward is having to defend every single trivial, casual remark I've made in the entire game. Looking for wolf-slips is one thing, but the amount of quibbling you're doing is through the roof. I'm actually only defending myself for the benefit of other players. You, I'm sure, will never back down or admit you might have been wrong, no matter what I say. EDIT:X'd with Lommy and Agan.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. Last edited by Nerwen; 04-18-2010 at 02:36 PM. |
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#13 |
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Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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More underlinings and italics.
![]() But Nerwen, I have to say I know how you feel. She always does that to me and it can really drive you crazy. But, I also think you should know Agan is like that: painfully nit-picky* and you should also know we others don't blindly follow her because we know we have said a dozen small stupid things ourselves along the game (or I would at least aaume I have although can't recall anything). *and just for her defense: she seems to find that useful and often it is. ![]() But anyway it's kind of disturbing watch you two back-and-forth since you are my top suspects. Quite eerie, because I can't really tell which one of you is evil (if either... )...edit: xed with Alirin
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#14 | |||
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Wisest of the Noldor
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Besides, Lommy, if I'd been reacting more strongly from the first, are you sure you wouldn't now be saying, "Ooo! Defensive! Clearly a cornered wolf!" Quote:
EDIT:X'd with Lommy and our moddess.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. Last edited by Nerwen; 04-18-2010 at 02:39 PM. |
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#15 |
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Shady She-Penguin
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: In a far land beyond the Sea
Posts: 8,093
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Nerwen 2 votes, Aganzir 1? Whichever I vote, I will feel like an idiot if she turns out innocent...
![]() Currently leaning on Aganzir though, not because she seems any more guilty but because she has less votes atm so it'd be more balanced (and more interesting toMorrow in case the game continues). On the other hand, we can take for granted that Nerwen is going to vote Agan so it's kind of 2-2. Hmm...
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Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris
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#16 | |||
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Woman of Secret Shadow
Join Date: Oct 2006
Location: in hollow halls beneath the fells
Posts: 4,511
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![]() And you can compare me to Nogwolf all you want, but this is how I play. And I know I can be horrible. And if you really are innocent, I'm sorry. Quote:
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As I said, you'll have my sincere apologies after the game if you're innocent. I never tried to annoy you on purpose. However at the moment I'm just rather convinced you're a wolf and I won't have peace until I know for sure so no, I'm not going to back away now.
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He bit me, and I was not gentle. Last edited by Aganzir; 04-18-2010 at 02:40 PM. Reason: xed since Lommy |
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#17 |
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Wisest of the Noldor
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Well, you're wrong. That's all I can say.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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#18 |
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Fluttering Enchantment
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~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~ Alirin walked and walked and walked. She wasn’t sure really where she was, or how far she was from the blue door, if she was going in a circle or not, the path went in all sort of directions so she really had no idea of where she could be heading. Finally after a long time of not seeing anything but trees and flowers she saw something extremely familiar. Alirin walked up to the March Hare’s home and looked at the long table. The *teapot* was still sitting in the same spot and the Hatter was still face down in his cup. However the March Hare was no longer at the table, he was sitting on his door step. All around him on the ground he had cups and teapots and biscuits. He was drinking a large cup of tea while also pouring sugar into a flower bed beside him and jittering nervously to himself. Alirin sat down on the ground facing him and tried to find a clean cup to have some tea as well. “Have some wine.” he offered trying to smile at her, though it looked rather twitchy. Alirin looked around. “I don’t see any wine.” “There isn’t any.” he replied. Alirin was about to say something about how uncivil that was but chose not too because of the Hare’s fragile state. Alirin sat quietly for a time as the Hare mumbled “twinkle, twinkle, twinkle” over and over again while wringing his long ears. “He’s gone even madder!” Alirin thought to herself, “Though considering his friends died it is not surprising.” This thought she had also made her wonder why she hadn’t yet gone mad, considering all the death she had witness in Wonderland. Though the Cat had told her she was already mad, perhaps he had been right. As she continued to contemplate her madness the Hare had now started eating a plum cake and was saying “best butter, best butter” over and over to himself. Alirin began to grow bored of the Hare, who was clearly going bonkers and was not in the mood for conversation. But she was tired of walking and decided to sit a while longer. “How are you feeling Mr. Hare?” she decided to ask him. He jumped at the sound of her voice and looked at her wide eyed, as though he had forgotten she was there the whole time. “I didn’t steal anything.” he said. “I said feel, not steal.” she said, being sure to annunciate clearly. “I don’t like eels.” the Hare said, shaking his head very quickly and looking closely at his spoon. Alirin decided to give up, and was about to get up and leave when the Hare got up first. She thought he might go inside his home, but instead he started to climb up it. In no time at all he was sitting on top of his roof with a teapot and his plum cake. This behaviour was just too odd for Alirin to ignore. “Mr. Hare, I have to insist that you come back down!” she hollered up to him. He looked at her startled again. “He really keeps forgetting I’m here!” she thought to herself. This time he was so terrified by her presence that he begun pacing quickly back and forth while talking to his teapot about butter and bats, and eventually he was going so fast that he lost his balanced and tumbled off the back of his house. Surprisingly Alirin was not surprised by this, since it had become rather normal for everyone in her presence to perish suddenly. So she once again started to walk back down the path, wondering if anyone would ever survive more than five minutes in her presence. ~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~ Dead Fea - Red Queen - Cobbler - lynched Day 1 Boro - the Caterpillar - Shirriff - killed Night 2 Sally - the Dormouse - Wolf - lynched Day 2 Izzy - White Rabbit - Ordinary - killed Night 3 Glirdan - Mad Hatter - Wolf - lynched Day 3 Greenie - White Night - Seer - killed Night 4 Nogrod – Cheshire Cat – Wolf – lynched Day 4 Nienna - White Queen - Hunter - killed Night 5 Inzil - King of Hearts - Ordinary - hunter killed Night 5 Morsul - Mock Turtle - Ordinary - lynched Day 5 Mira - March Hare - Ordinary - lynched Day 6 Alive Wintywinty – Tweedledum Agan – Queen of Hearts Shasta – Knave of Hearts Lottie – Duchess Nerwen – the Dodo Legate – Jabberwocky Skip – Humpty Dumpty Lommy – the Gryphon Brinniel – Tweedledee It is still Night 7.
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Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin
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#19 |
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Fluttering Enchantment
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~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~ Alirin walked down the path feeling greatly depressed. She decided she had to do something to cheer herself up. After a few moments of thought she decided that skipping would do the trick. She skipped down the path for a few moments and really started to feel much happier. This is when she saw a long wall up ahead and an egg sitting on top. As she got closer to it she could see that this egg had a face and arms and legs and knew that it had to be Humpty Dumpty himself. Humpty Dumpty sat on a wall “Tell me your name and your business.” he said to her as she stopped in front of him. “My name is Alirin.” “That’s a stupid enough name!” Humpty Dumpty said, “What does it mean?” “Must a name mean something?” Alirin asked. “Of course it must!” Humpty said, “My name means the shape I am, and a good handsome shape it is! With a name like yours, you might be any shape!” “Why do you sit here all alone?” Alirin asked, not wishing to start an argument. “Why, because there’s nobody with me!” cried Humpty Dumpty. Humpty Dumpty had a great fall “Don’t you think you’d be safer on the ground? You could fall off.” she asked him. “Of course I would not! Now if I ever did fall off – which would never happen – but IF I were to, why the king has promised me, with his very own mouth, that he would –“ “Send all his horses and all his men.” Alirin finished. All the kings horses and all the kings men “Why, I declare!” Humpty Dumpty declared, “You’ve been listening at doors, and behind trees, and down chimneys, or else you wouldn’t have known that!” “What a nice belt you have!”Alirin remarked, ignoring the accusation that she eavesdropped. “Thank you. It was a un-birthday present from the White King and Queen.” he answered, looking rather proud when he mentioned the royals. “What is a un-birthday present?” Alirin asked. “Clearly, it is a present you receive on a day that is not your birthday.” he answered. “I think I prefer birthday presents.” Alirin responded. “Well, that is ridiculous. How many days of the year is it your birthday?” he asked. “One.” she responded. “How many days are there in a year?” Humpty Dumpty questioned, crossing his arms and leaning forward. Alirin was sure he’d fall off at any moment. “Three hundred and sixty five, of course.” she replied. “So therefore, how many days are there that are not your birthday?” he asked. “Three hundred and sixty four.” she answered. “So then there are three hundred and sixty four days to get un-birthday presents, and only one day to get a birthday present, making un-birthday presents much better.” Alirin didn’t want to argue so she asked Humpty Dumpty if there was anything special about the belt. “Why yes, in fact there is.” he answered. “It helps me protect people!” “From what?” she asked. “Various things that people would need protecting from, of course!” Humpty Dumpty answered, looking very proud. Suddenly he lost his balance, just as she had been predicting, and came tumbling to the ground into a hundreds of little pieces. Couldn’t put Humpty together again Alirin continued down the path once more, not in the mood for skipping any longer. ~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~*~ Dead Fea - Red Queen - Cobbler - lynched Day 1 Boro - the Caterpillar - Shirriff - killed Night 2 Sally - the Dormouse - Wolf - lynched Day 2 Izzy - White Rabbit - Ordinary - killed Night 3 Glirdan - Mad Hatter - Wolf - lynched Day 3 Greenie - White Night - Seer - killed Night 4 Nogrod – Cheshire Cat – Wolf – lynched Day 4 Nienna - White Queen - Hunter - killed Night 5 Inzil - King of Hearts - Ordinary - hunter killed Night 5 Morsul - Mock Turtle - Ordinary - lynched Day 5 Mira - March Hare - Ordinary - lynched Day 6 Skip - Humpty Dumpty - Ranger - killed Night 7 Alive Wintywinty – Tweedledum Agan – Queen of Hearts Shasta – Knave of Hearts Lottie – Duchess Nerwen – the Dodo Legate – Jabberwocky Lommy – the Gryphon Brinniel – Tweedledee It is now Day 7. Yes you can post a bit early.
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Comme une étoile amarante Comme un papillon de nuit C'est la lumière qui m'attire La flamme qui m'éblouit Fenris Muffin
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#20 |
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The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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Oh, Gumdrop Buttons, and another list!
I trust:
Me. I mostly trust: Agan Shasta Brinn I don't know about: WW Lommy I suspect: Nerwen Legate I want a Legate lynch. I may settle for a Nerwen lynch, but only if there is absolutely no chance of a Legate lynch. And I don't think Legate was the Cursed, I think he was always a wolf. If there is a Cursed, I think it's Nerwen, which is why I want Legate lynched first.
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
Last edited by Loslote; 04-19-2010 at 07:36 PM. Reason: bolding |
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#21 |
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Werewolf Psychic
Join Date: Apr 2007
Location: In fire, water, earth, and air. But mostly water.
Posts: 2,832
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Alright, can I just say that Brinn isn't the only one who is really bothered by winty's fly-by voting?
![]() Back with more a bit later, probably on Legate/Nerwen/Agan or thereabouts. I really don't think we can afford to keep ignoring winty for long, though.
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Shasta– ... However, if he's innocent his famous clairvoyant powers must be taking the week off. Meanwhile, the Night-kills have been awfully effective– almost like we're dealing with a psychic wolf... - Nerwen, WW LXXV Last edited by Shastanis Althreduin; 04-19-2010 at 07:38 PM. Reason: X'ed with Lottie. |
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#22 | |
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The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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#23 |
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Reflection of Darkness
Join Date: Jun 2002
Location: Polishing the stars. Well, somebody has to do it; they're looking a little bit dull.
Posts: 2,983
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So, skip was our ranger. You know, I can't imagine ranger is an easy role for a newbie to play....skip did a decent job of laying low, until now at least. And he did especially good if he managed a save (which we still don't know).
Btw, I told you Mira was an easy lynch. Silly people. Seriously though, these last two Days have had pretty lousy lynch choices, in my opinion. Can we please lynch Nerwen toDay? I still find her suspicious and whatever her role may be, knowing it will at least ease my mind. Okay, I promise to try looking at others too to see if anyone else turns up more suspicious, but I really don't have much time toDay. Also, if Lottie is still alive, does this mean our wolf is still looking for the cursed? Or maybe he/she wants us to think that way. Or perhaps Lottie is so off in her suspicions, that it's actually better to keep her alive. Just speculating here. As for winty, I don't like how he's voting out of nowhere, but I'm just wondering if that's just poor innocent behaviour rather than wolfish. While his voting makes me uneasy, I don't think he's worth lynching toDay at least...possibly another easy lynch. Btw, we have two Days to get this right if the cursed is out there, three if it's just one wolf. We're so close and I would just hate it if we lost now.
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Nolite te bastardes carborundorum |
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#24 | ||
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The Werewolf's Companion
Join Date: Aug 2009
Location: The Moon
Posts: 3,021
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I have loved the stars too fondly to be fearful of the night. Double Fenris
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#25 | ||||
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Wisest of the Noldor
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What I'm concerned about now is that your willingness to accept me as a backup lynch is going to make it very hard to get a wolf toDay, since it seems I'm almost guaranteed votes from Agan and Brinn anyway. Quote:
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EDIT:X'd with Lottie.
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"Even Nerwen wasn't evil in the beginning." –Elmo. |
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