WW LXXV: It's Always Tea Time Here

[Nogrod]

(~~~) *grin appearing*

I see you are making bad calculations...

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Massive disagreement with Nogrod:

I actually disagree with the massiveness of your disagreement... Well at least with the point 2.

1) Greenie's smart, but because she was suspected so much and she hadn't posted anything obviously seerish (as we have noticed when trying to analyse her dreams), I think she would've dared not to come out, especially if she had lost one dream (dreamt of someone who died) at some point, which is an option we have to keep in mind.

According to your scenario she had dreamt of at least one wolf (me) - and if we contiune with that scenario probably also of another (Glirdan) because she put us both into the same category of "bad". If I was a wolf and she had dreamt of me but not Glirdy, why would she mess with our heads by claiming me and Glirdy belonging to the same group? So if she had two wolves bagged why didn't she come forwards with it? I feel you're really trying to force your point now and it doesn't look too good.

2) Looking at a seer's posts is never a bad thing. You may be pessimistic (or a wolf), but I'm not. I have correctly interpreted a dead seer's dreams before and Greenie is just a tad more difficult challenge. You of all people should remember this (remember the last game you modded?). There's no way for us to find the absolute truth about Greenie's dreams, but we can make good guesses which can help us in our suspicions. A bit the same way a wolf's fellow wolves can't be absolutely logically found out from his/her posts but we can make good guesses to one way or another... Besides, currently we could even afford to be misguided for a Day or two and people tend to rethink things in the light of new events.

Well, first of all there is a way to get "absolute truths" from the seer's dreams and that is when the seer comes forwards, tells the dreams openly and dies to prove her claim to seership. And Greenie knows that.

Sadly she didn't give us that option which probably tells us that she had a) no wolves, and b) she had less than three innocents.

But yes, I truly agree that we should speculate about the possible dreams - I actually said it in my post back there - but you Lommy seem to be picky with what you take into account and what you don't... And I also agree that we can afford a mislynch or two right now looking at the numbers.

Surely the only way for me to prove I'm right is that you lynch me, and well that's okay. As I said, we can afford a mislynch. I understand the situation perfectly well. But I do recommend you fight over it and then when I'm dead you draw your conclusions based on what people thought of my lynching.

Surely I'd like to stay around for a Day or two as fex. toMorrow I would have time to really delve into this, but well that's not up to me.

Anyway Lommy's trigger-happiness has raised her up in my suspicions quite a lot.


There were some other things I thought I'd say but I have forgotten. I'll go back to the thread and be right back.

(~~~) *grin vanishing*


EDIT: X'd with Agan & Legate

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Either the kill was done to frame Nogrod and drive us away from the current (resp. yesterDay's) main suspects, which for me would mean e.g. Inzil especially, or the kill was done to kill a Seer, which would mean most likely a Wolfgrod.

I agree. However I don't think Greenie suspected Nog heavily enough for the wolves to think they could frame Nog by killing her, and therefore your second option seems to me more likely. If she hadn't actually been the seer Nog might have got away with it, but now I think we're better off if we lynch him.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If I was a wolf and she had dreamt of me but not Glirdy, why would she mess with our heads by claiming me and Glirdy belonging to the same group? So if she had two wolves bagged why didn't she come forwards with it?

Maybe because she didn't want to appear too obvious? I remember a game where the guy who be seer put both Fea (dreamt of wolf) and me (not dreamt of innocent) as evil and everybody thought we both must be guilty... So, wise or not, seers do that. And given her posting, does it look like she had dreamt of Glirdan?

Originally Posted by Nog

Would you explain to me why the wolves would wish to kill Lottie? She is not the cursed, as our moddess herself specifically told us if I recall it right. Why would they waste their kill on Lottie?

Would Mr. Cat like to explain to me why the wolves would not want to kill a known innocent?
Or did you just betray something of your night talk? Are the wolves only desperate to find the cursed now?

[Nogrod]

(~~~) *grin appearing*

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Would Mr. Cat like to explain to me why the wolves would not want to kill a known innocent?

I'm not claiming the wolves would love to have a known innocent around, but I think it's rather safe to assume that as they lost two wolves and a cobbler in three Days they'd rather wish for reinforcements rather sooner than later.

Originally Posted by Agan

However I don't think Greenie suspected Nog heavily enough for the wolves to think they could frame Nog by killing her, and therefore your second option seems to me more likely.

You seem to have also a bad memory on top of lazy thinking habits...

Originally Posted by me

Okay. One scenario: like someone said already, maybe they were taking even more heat than we know? Making a totally odd kill would keep us going around the subject for quite a while - and thus we might let our main suspicions from yesterDay to recede?

What I think now is the following. The wolves wished to make a puzzling kill so as to keep us occupied with it (success indeed). That means at least one of them was in considerable trouble already yesterDay and they wished to change the scope of discussion once and for all. Greenie happening to be the seer was a bonus they couldn't have anticipated - but they would love to turn it into their advantage toDay with getting me lynched. *coughLommycough*


(~~~) *grin vanishing*

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I'm not claiming the wolves would love to have a known innocent around, but I think it's rather safe to assume that as they lost two wolves and a cobbler in three Days they'd rather wish for reinforcements rather sooner than later.

Nog honestly. Yeah of course they want to find the cursed, but I wouldn't say it's safe to assume she's their primary target. They have no idea who's an ordo and who's not, and even if they knew every ordo the odds of finding the cursed wouldn't be too good.
And I think it's extremely unnerving you say so.

That means at least one of them was in considerable trouble already yesterDay and they wished to change the scope of discussion once and for all.

So if you're innocent, maybe you'd like to go and find the wolf who was in considerable trouble instead of just defending yourself?

++Nogrod

Should be worth a try.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

What's the point of saying that? Was it a nightly plan or not, it didn't work, and the whole comment is sort of creepy.

I was impressed by the daring nature of it. Simple as that.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I really don't like Inzil's analysis of Green's posts. It seems he's just looking for people she suspected and downplaying the fact that she called some people innocent.

I would think that all Greenie's words could be read, without me having to explain everything. I was only concentrating on who she suspected, seeing as she was the Seer, and had been killed and all.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

To me Inzil's death would have revealed more than Glirdan's, given that I had been concentrating on him quite a lot and on Glirdy not at all. I'm not sorry it was Glirdy who died but I'd still like to lynch Inzil.

Shame you didn't quite want to lynch enough me just yet, since you voted for Nog. There's always toMorrow, no doubt.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

There are, from my point of view, basically two options. Either the kill was done to frame Nogrod and drive us away from the current (resp. yesterDay's) main suspects, which for me would mean e.g. Inzil especially, or the kill was done to kill a Seer, which would mean most likely a Wolfgrod. I can't see much of any other possibility behind these two and thus will be probably voting according to it toDay.

The other option is the one Nog mentioned, that the wolves were looking for the Cursed, and left Lottie alone because she wasn't it. The main mark against that though, is that it's too much of a coincidence that they just happened to take out the Seer in that scenario.

Originally Posted by skip spence

And why not Lottie? Two reasons I can think of. Maybe they think the ranger will protect her every other night and that the risk of missing out on a kill is too great. Or that the people Lottie now suspects are innocent, and that she's likely to cause as much bloodshed among the villagers as she already has among the wolves. I'm not so sure who's on top of Lottie's suspect list any longer though.

Either of those are possible too. The odds really are against Lottie having both remaining wolves in her sights.

Nog is not mounting the aggressive counter-attack that I've come to expect when he's innocent and stands accused.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, I must say that the idea of the Wolves looking for the Cursed makes sense in itself, it's what they would like probably the most right now, but the point is, to use skip's odds from yesterDay, that there is really little chance for them to get one, something like 1:12 or how many. Pretty bad, I think. It would be impossible for the Wolves to just keep killing a person after a person with the intention to find the Cursed, it's as much of a chance that they stumble upon a Hunter who might just as well kill one of them, or an Unicorn, for that matter. The problem is that there is not even a clue about somebody being a Cursed, because the person itself does not know that! So it's just that the WWs may just go about their own business and hope that somewhere along the way they stumble upon the Cursed.

So I don't know what to make of it, Nogrod just joined the list of people who are possibly suspicious and don't make sense at the same time. Really, is that something catchy or what?

Okay, maybe only one possible explanation now occured to me - and that's probably what he meant, now thinking of it - that the WWs would rather kill a person they know is NOT a Gifted in hope that it'll be a Cursed. But, well, that has the same problem as the above (only with the odds being 1:11 instead of 1:12) AND on top of that it would leave a live Seer with all the problems I have remarked in my last post. Ridiculous. All of this does not say anything about Nogrod's innocence or guilt to me, it just tells me that he is thinking in a rather megalomanic way. Unless he is a Wolf and is annoyed to be suspected on wrong grounds, as it should be obvious to us in his opinion that he should have been looking for Cursed and leave Greenie alive. And all of that, of course, considering that the Wolves knew who Greenie is. That's so random that I am actually beginning to consider whether what Aganzir said about Nogrod possibly slipping his Wolf thoughts might not be true after all.

EDIT: x-ed since Lommy's 4/3

[Nogrod]

(~~~) *grin appearing*

Originally Posted by Aganzir

So if you're innocent, maybe you'd like to go and find the wolf who was in considerable trouble instead of just defending yourself?

[highlight ]++Nogrod[ /highlight]

Should be worth a try.

Maybe I would, but why? If you refuse to think, why should I help you? You don't seem to pay attention to what I say so why bother? I could sleep tonight as well if nothing I say makes any difference.

And where's your effort Agan? Oh, the moral highground is such a slippery thing... Why don't you try and go find the wolves? Are you so happy with the presumed outcome that you can just lay back and enjoy?


Heh, I was actually going through the posting toDay to make some remarks on them, So maybe I'll finish with it anyway and not make my threat of resigning quite that real.

Originally Posted by Zil

Nog is not mounting the aggressive counter-attack that I've come to expect when he's innocent and stands accused.

You should see my aggressive counter-attack when I'm a wolf and stand accused...

Some people here might tell you about it.


(~~~) *grin vanishing*

[skip spence]

Could Morsul's early votes mean something? I've noticed that the people catching the most flack so far are the people who've been active right up until the deadline and voted late. The Europeans have stayed out of most people's suspicions, maybe in part because of this? We of course have good reasons to vote rather early as the DL is in the middle of the night, but for Morsul not so.

Maybe he figures that by being his incoherent self and voting early, sometimes for his fellow wolves, he might just soldier on as a minor but harmless disturbance?

And what to make of all this. First he proclaims to have all the time in the world:

Originally Posted by Morsul

I'm off tomorrow I can stay on all night yay!

Then, shortly after, he's suddenly run out of time:

Painting my kitchen today so no time. ++Shasta

That doesn't seem like a thing that would prevent someone from checking up on the thread, him being in his own flat and all.

And then there's this quote that I've already brought up:

Lastly I voted first for both wolves... If I knew they would get the most votes for the day I'd be A) psychic and B) insane for offering them up for slaughter.

This is clearly written from the perspective of a wolf, without stating that it is a hypothetical situation. If I were a wolf I'd be crazy for offering them up for a slaughter would be a fair argument. Maybe it was just an honest mistake, or perhaps a fatal slip of the tongue?

Insane for offering them up for the slaugher, eh? Yes, that may well be the case. A working theory of mine is that Shasta and Morsul are the remaining wolves. But if they are that seems like too bold a plan, especially if it's been made before hand. Hm...

Gotta vote soon.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Maybe I would, but why? If you refuse to think, why should I help you? You don't seem to pay attention to what I say so why bother? I could sleep tonight as well if nothing I say makes any difference.

And where's your effort Agan? Oh, the moral highground is such a slippery thing... Why don't you try and go find the wolves? Are you so happy with the presumed outcome that you can just lay back and enjoy?

Now, if you are innocent, Nog, you would not resign and try to find some suspect. You are not doing anything. And accusing Agan does not make sense here, because even though you are right that she does not make her own effort, she has a case - unlike you.

Originally Posted by skip spence

Could Morsul's early votes mean something? I've noticed that the people catching the most flack so far are the people who've been active right up until the deadline and voted late. The Europeans have stayed out of most people's suspicions, maybe in part because of this? We of course have good reasons to vote rather early as the DL is in the middle of the night, but for Morsul not so.

Maybe he figures that by being his incoherent self and voting early, sometimes for his fellow wolves, he might just soldier on as a minor but harmless disturbance?
(...)
And then there's this quote that I've already brought up:

This is clearly written from the perspective of a wolf, without stating that it is a hypothetical situation. If I were a wolf I'd be crazy for offering them up for a slaughter would be a fair argument. Maybe it was just an honest mistake, or perhaps a fatal slip of the tongue?

Insane for offering them up for the slaugher, eh? Yes, that may well be the case. A working theory of mine is that Shasta and Morsul are the remaining wolves. But if they are that seems like too bold a plan, especially if it's been made before hand. Hm...

I don't know about Shasta, but at least Morsul this far does not seem suspicious to me. He has been acting more or less like his innocent self, and the possible slip of all things is not very convincing to me either (I mean, I can see Morsul making a mistake like that without it being a slip).

It is interesting nevertheless, you sort of made me now imagine the interesting idea of Morsul fooling us (or me) all the time, because he really seemed "normal" to me. Anyway, it's good to see skip sort of working independantly, making me think even better of him. (If he's a Wolf, hats off (to Roy Harper).)

EDIT: x-ed with Nog

[skip spence]

Lommy has a good point about the wolves not killing Greenie unless she had given them a reason to worry when they could've gone after Lottie instead, I think.

Yes, killing Greenie was a surprising decision (and I'll miss having her around). But what possible reason could the wolves have to believe she was the seer? From what I've gathered she was always perfectly ambiguous and vague about everyone, and tried her best to stay out of trouble. I was starting to suspect her as a wolf for these reasons. Could the wolves have felt that this was a reason to suspect her being the Seer, with the knowledge that she wasn't a wolf?

And why not Lottie? Two reasons I can think of. Maybe they think the ranger will protect her every other night and that the risk of missing out on a kill is too great. Or that the people Lottie now suspects are innocent, and that she's likely to cause as much bloodshed among the villagers as she already has among the wolves. I'm not so sure who's on top of Lottie's suspect list any longer though.

Morsul's odd though, wouldn't you say? Can't give this too much time but I will look into some of his statements now. There seems to be a pattern to his seemingly erratic behaviour, one that tempts me to cry... what is the word again ... oh yes wolf.