WW LXXV: It's Always Tea Time Here

[Morsul the Dark]

Painting my kitchen today so no time.

++Shasta

Shasta: Something that bothers me is that Lottie has been pouncing on her four suspects for "acting too innocent", but misses this completely. Lottie, I realize you're a known innocent, but really? Just because you think you've spotted all four wolves in the first day doesn't mean you stop looking at anyone else and focus solely on those four. For example, several of the points in your "Sal-alysis" are pretty clearly grasping at straws.

grasping at straws this isn't?

Like I said... day 2 easy lynch. With Morsul being opportunistic and Winty being bandwaggonish (going to get reasons for your votes from your packmates tonight, winty?), it's kind of hard to choose, but...
++Morsul

Gave my reasons.

473 and 474 backpeddles pretty quick

534 votes greenie...

Have fun! I need a WW break so I probably won't be back before DL(Sometimes you have to put the computer down.)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Morsul the Dark

Painting my kitchen today so no time.

++Shasta


grasping at straws this isn't?



Gave my reasons.

473 and 474 backpeddles pretty quick

534 votes greenie...

Have fun! I need a WW break so I probably won't be back before DL(Sometimes you have to put the computer down.)

1. No, it wasn't. You pretty clearly did the same thing Lottie was criticizing others for.

2. It doesn't follow that I'm a wolf just because I voted for the seer - I honestly suspected Greenie for several, easily-documented reasons.

And what's this about backpedaling?

I'm between classes right now, but I should have that Nog-alysis up in a few hours.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I did have time to look up #473 and #474, though (the posts that Morsul mentions), and all I have to say about that is, misrepresentation by omission, much? Take a look at #494 and get back to me, Morsul.

Honestly I almost want to vote him for sheer annoyance, but... that's how he plays every game. However, Lommy did put forward that theory about a Shasta-wolf... it makes one wonder.

[Brinniel]

Day 1

none

Day 2

Nogrod – Usually, at this point of the game, I'm convinced he's a wolf. This far I guess he's never been one when we've played together. So now I'm wondering if I should get worried as I've found no reason to suspect him...

Day 3

Nogrod

Carefully voices some suspicion on her yet flip-flops nicely. The three dots in the end creep me out, like the ”I never get her” in the beginning. He's kind of – how to say it – decisively undecisive. Looks rather wolf-on-wolf, though could be genuine.

Could go either way, really.

I don't like the look of this. Looks like an opportunistic wolf-on-wolf vote.

bad:
Nogrod
Glirdan

I'd prefer voting Glirdan or Nogrod toDay. Glirdan's death, as has been mentioned, would shed light to many things, and his interactions with Sally were very fishy. Nogrod's interactions with Sally looked bad too, and I don't like how he's been slipping under pretty much everyone's radar, being nice and invisible yet contributing. I could also vote Shasta or Inzil, but would prefer one of the earlier two.

++ Nogrod

Now I'm not sure if this is a throwaway, I suppose one could see it as such, but I just feel I should stir the pot a bit. I find Nogrod very suspicious, he's being too agreeable and nudging things from the background, and his interactions with Sally seemed quite wolf-on-wolf to me.

I do think the possibility of a Nogwolf is realistic. For one thing, I wouldn't be at all surprised that Greenie would choose to dream Nogrod, especially seeing the single comment she wrote about him before Day 3. And again, I don't see why the wolves would've chosen to kill her, unless they had a reason to suspect she was the seer. Her comments on Nogrod are the only ones that look potentially seerish...everything else she says seems a bit too vague. The question is would a Nogwolf kill Greenie knowing that if she is the seer it might put him in the spotlight? At this point, I think so. With half the team and their cobbler down, the wolves aren't exactly in a good position and couldn't afford a seer reveal. And a seer reveal could've been quite likely toDay considering Greenie might've been a heavy suspect after yesterDay. Looking suspicious is better than becoming a known wolf. If Nogrod is a wolf, it's best to keep in mind he would've been well aware that killing her would make him look suspicious if she did turn out as the seer, so I imagine that a Nogwolf would come into toDay prepared to defend himself.

Now it could just be that Greenie was killed at random, a lucky guess from the wolves that also frames an innocent Nogrod. But I still have trouble believing that simply because I wouldn't understand why the wolves would kill someone who had the possibility of getting lynched toDay unless they had reason to believe she need to be eliminated.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

By the way, I'm not happy about the suspicion against me yesterDay. In my view the "case" against me was paper-thin– though it's true that it was going to be hard to make a really strong case against anyone at that point.

You may see it that way, but I don't. Your actions on Day 3 and especially Day 4 look clearly suspicious to me.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

See, that's the other thing about Brinniel– she sounded like she knew Morsul was innocent.

I didn't know Morsul was innocent, but I was pretty certain about it because it just wasn't logical that he would be a wolf.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

Where did that 1/5 come from? If we lynched the unicorn today, there would be a 1/11 chance that Greenie comes back, 2/11 for Lottie to be happy and 3/11 that no one is resurrected.

Exactly. The odds are so low, it doesn't make sense to lynch the unicorn just for the possibility that Greenie could come back. And while any other innocent would be nice, they won't necessarily provide us with that much more help and could end up being very misguided about who the last wolf is.

Originally Posted by skip

Also, why did you not vote Brinn? There was still a chance to lynch Nerwen. All it would take was one person retracting his or her Morsul vote and re-voting Nerwen.

Yeah, which was clearly unlikely. winty seemed pretty much gone by then. Nerwen used her retraction to save herself, and would obviously never vote for herself anyway. Lottie was the only one to convince, and I tried to persuade her to vote Nerwen and failed. By then, it was too late to persuade her to change it, and I'm quite certain she wouldn't have used her only retraction anyway when she seemed quite happy with her vote on Morsul. Even though my vote would've made no difference, I probably should've made one anyway simply for vote record reasons, but I was so irritated at the time, I couldn't be bothered with it.

Originally Posted by skip

If you are innocent I think it more probable that you'd take the risk of keeping the retraction and hoping none shows up to vote again. The consequences for the innocent team wouldn't have been that bad if this happened.

Not necessarily. I've seen innocents retract to save themselves before.


Okay, since we don't know what happened last Night, we should keep the possibility of a cursed turning in the back of our minds, but not yet attempt to go about looking for one just yet. The smartest thing we can do is find the last wolf and if we do and the game's still going, then obviously the cursed has been turned. I think killing the final wolf is really the only way to know what happened for sure.

Btw, if we were to lynch the cursed, would the narration indicate whether that cursed had indeed been turned, or would we be left guessing?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

Why? If the Ranger saved Person A, and the wolf attacked Person B (the cursed), the Ranger wouldn't have any idea, would they? This seems like an odd assumption to make.

Well, that depends on the game's mechanics. I wouldn't have thought of that, but then, I am generally used to the fact that saves and whatnot are announced in the narrations. If I was doing it, I would probably send a PM to the Ranger in reply, saying "you saved XY" if it was the case, although now given our Moddesses behavior, it seems somewhat less likely for her to act like that. But anyway, well... who knows, I say let's leave the issue for now and concentrate on the present.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Btw, if we were to lynch the cursed, would the narration indicate whether that cursed had indeed been turned, or would we be left guessing?

As for this, I have been also wondering if we'd learn that, like, it would be nice to have a: "XXX - lynched on Day X - cursed" or something as announcement there. I guess that would make sense - but anyway... let's see.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Not necessarily. I've seen innocents retract to save themselves before.

Yes but when when Nerwen retracted she was on 3 and Morsul on 5 with one person left to vote - you, who'd vote Nerwen. In other words, at that time it would take your vote plus another retraction from a third person to get her lynched. That could've happened, but wasn't very likely.

My point is, this risk to be lynched would seem more bearable for an innocent, because even if unfortune strikes, her team would still be in a good, if slightly worsened position. A wolf on the other hand would be desperate not to get lynched, because it would mean the End. Ergo, a wolf would imo have the strongest motivation to make that retraction move, without saying that an innocent couldn't do the same.

[wilwarin538]

Btw, if we were to lynch the cursed, would the narration indicate whether that cursed had indeed been turned, or would we be left guessing?

Like I already said, yes. If the Cursed dies before being turned you would see "Cursed" beside their name. If the Cursed dies after being turned you would see "Cursed-Wolf" beside their name.

[skip spence]

I might as well post this, a look I had this morning on Shasta's first 3 days:

Day 1

First three posts are IC banter

Post 53 is a list of sorts. Lottie is his only serious suspicion because she’s “posting a lot of fluff and not a lot of content, which doesn't remind me of an innocent incarnation of said Duchess.”

In Post 112 at which point Lottie has amassed a few votes and looks like getting lynched , he then changes his tone and now dislikes the votes on Lottie, “Partiiiiiially because it seems like we lynch her first a lot, and partiiiially because the reasoning on the bandwagon isn't superb”.

To this the Sally the wolf agrees. Shasta now finds Morsul the most suspect because he wants others to get rid of their retractions but at the same time keep but it turned out that Shasta just misread Morsul’s post.

Shasta eventually votes Greenie without an explanation (unless I missed it)

Day 2:

#340 is a long post of thoughts. Among other things he critiques Lottie for acting so sure of herself. Points out that Mira’s statement that she’s: “floundering for something to contribute” is suspect.

He also suspects Nerwen because of this statement of hers while she was giving Sally what actually was her second vote: “Now, I think that's the third vote on Sallymouse, which I guess makes it officially a bandwagon.”

He defends Sally from Legate’s accusations though:
Legate: “But this sounds a rather too over-the-top defensive thing and somehow, the defense sounds just fabricated. That didn't help you at least in my eyes, sally. But whatever...”

Shasta :"I disagree. I've been a frustrated innocent before (right, guys? *waves crossbow*) and honestly, Sally had just come back to two votes and a bucketload of suspicion. I'd probably be frustrated too".

Later on he states he’d likely vote Zil or Morsul, bickers a bit with Greenie then finally votes Morsul for “being opportunistic”.


Day 3:
First a short post where he agrees with others that Glirdan is suspicious and promises to look at Greenie because Glirdan will be scrutinized by others.
Then a few rather pointless short posts.

#494 is longer. Here Shasta critiques Morsul for his early votes( “it feels like he's established ‘vote early and be suspicious at all time’ as his own playstyle, but at the same time right now it feels like he's hiding behind it a bit”) and Brinn for being wishy-washy.
More bickering with Greenie, still with little weight behind the accusations. Shasta also questions why Nogrod calls winty an easy lynch: “Right, I'm going to take issue with people continuing to call winty an ‘easy lynch’”

#507 Qualifies his accusations against Greenie(who’s just voted Nogrod, rather surprisingly) :
"I do see it as a bit of a throwaway, honestly. I don't think anyone else so far has mentioned Nog (which worries me a bit, now that I think about it, considering that he's usually at the forefront of the discussion...) but your last comment looked like you're setting yourself up to look good if Glirdan is lynched and flips as a wolf."

I state my possible intention on voting Shasta:
“As it is, I'm leaning towards voting Shasta. He too has been voting very cleanly, never getting in the centre of the attention. Very, as it may seem, sneeky.”

Shasta responds: “It's a little odd to be voting someone for seeming too innocent. Just saying.”

He then votes Greenie. Interesting to note that Greenie died the following morning.


Don't know just what to make of this expect that I still find him rather suspicious.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

What happened in the night if the cursed was turned:
wolf: *stalks towards cursed* "Heya mate I'm here to kill you rawr!"
cursed: "Yikes!"
wolf: *bites*
cursed: *sprouts fur* "Omigod I didn't die!"
wolf: "Let's go kick some village butt yay!"

Epic. Win.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

You know something? Mira played in Werewolf LXXII: Now There's the Truth of It!, in which when the Cursed was turned, all we were told in the narration was, "Nobody died". Mind you, Mira herself was dead by then.

But she was a dead wolf at the time...and probably more concerned with the fact that the wolves were dying off at an alarming rate, if she was even watching.

Originally Posted by Aganzir

What does it have to do with anything?

Well, it was a fun game, and actually quite similar with the string of wolf-lynches. (four in a row, following a hunter wolf-kill. )

Originally Posted by skip spence

Yes but when when Nerwen retracted she was on 3 and Morsul on 5 with one person left to vote - you, who'd vote Nerwen. In other words, at that time it would take your vote plus another retraction from a third person to get her lynched. That could've happened, but wasn't very likely.

No, because she xed with me. If I hadn't voted and Brinn did, Nerwen would have died. Or if I'd voted for Nerwen, which was still possible.

Originally Posted by skip spence

He then votes Greenie. Interesting to note that Greenie died the following morning.

A wolf probably wouldn't be that bold.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Loslote

No, because she xed with me. If I hadn't voted and Brinn did, Nerwen would have died. Or if I'd voted for Nerwen, which was still possible.

Ok fair enough. With the x-posting my argument sort of falls apart I guess.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Greenie kill first, though, I don't know if we can assume that the Wolves expected anything from her, on the other hand, she was suspected quite well too, so maybe there had to be a reason to kill her other than a no-trace kill.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

If there was anything that could lead the Wolves to think that way, it would be at most that Greenie's remark "you are no Seer", or something

I don't think that remark by Greenie by itself was necessarily it. Others made the same point, including me.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

As for Greenie's dreams, I really am not able to collect any definitely proven hints. It is also possible, however, that she has dreamed of some of the people who have died, which might happen. What she says about Nogrod does not seem to me necessarily like dreaming about him - and I have at least seen that she really tends to suspect him in many games (and he suspects her - which didn't happen that much here, but that does not say anything, it would've been more telling if it was the other way around). I think Greenie was in general rather careful in announcing what she possibly knew about people, which in this way is a pity, but what can we do.

It seems perfectly reasonable to me that Greenie would have dreamed of Nog (or Lommy), for obvious reasons. Actually, if she was going to dream of Nog, I would have expected it to come on Night 1. A vote for Nog on Day 1 would not have been so surprising from her. But coming as it did on Day 3, I'd be inclined to think there might be more behind it. Still could be a frame-up, though.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

It would be incredibly funny of Zil was a wolf. Wolves on the tops of suspicion lists all the time. But to be honest, Zil does make me suspicious: he thinks so differently all the time, he's been so wrong about things, it really doesn't seem very innocent anymore. On the other hand, the village has had three or four heavy suspects this far, and two of them have been wolves, so we might have Zil here as the quota innocent who just seems darn suspicious...

Thinks differently? I do try.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

And really, toying with a scenario. If I was a wolf and she had dreamt of me wouldn't she have said that openly? She would have gotten at least one more dream and the wolves would be down to one after you lynched me toDay. Also she could have thus given us all the known innocents (or even the last wolf!) she had clear and openly and not leave us into this interpretation-game over them.

When Greenie gave her vote for you, it wasn't known yet that Glirdan was certainly a wolf, which, if she knew you were one, would mean there were two left. So in Greenie's eyes, maybe there was still enough uncertainty that she wanted to stay incognito for the time being.

[Brinniel]

winty

Day 1

He very well could be simply a confused innocent or a really smart wolfywolfy....Currently I'm inclined to believe the first.

Day 2

Mind explaining those? Because they are rather vague and it just seems to me like you're trying to get by on the tailcoats of others, which happens to be a very Wolfish tactic by the by.

This is really interesting point. Going back quickly (and I mean I skimmed it) I could not find a single person who stated that Brinn is a strong player, and if it was said, it was said well after his vote. Where is he getting all this information? His fellow Wolfies??

winty has me at a crossroads. He could very well be a bewildered newbie, or he could be a really clever newbie-wolf with his packmates giving him hints at Night.

Nerwen

Day 1

And Nerwen's sigh threw me off there too...A sigh of exasperation. Perhaps either because she is exasperated with the newbie thing or perhaps a sigh of exasperation of her fellow packmate?

Seemed a little too overprotective of winty initially, but that could easily have been her being exasperated with the newbie.

Nogrod

Day 1

For some reason I never suspect this guy....Maybe it's just because he always comes across as the level-headed one among us (which is saying something this time around ) or maybe it's just a charm he has....Although his vote for Fea has me a little worried. Voting for her simply for initiating the voting for Lottie? What reason is that? The bandwagon for Lottie (at least the voting anyway) did not start until well AFTER she had voted.....Hmmm....

Mira

Day 1

I have no read of my fellow tea patron

Day 2

Anybody else worried about Mira and Nerwen? They have been relatively quiet this game, although Mira is a little more worrisome then Nerwen as the latter has been making some great contributions to the game. I'd love to hear more from both, but more so Mira.

This feels too much like a bandwagon....albeit, it is with a known innocent. However, it is quite plausible, especially with her lack of reasoning, that she is a Wolf is Mira clothing. Will have to see what she has said since this to get a better read off her.

Mira has made my eyebrows rise after reading those last few posts of hers.

Aganzir

Day 1

Giving a pass to her as she hasn't played in a year and I don't want to see her go just yet and has also been making some wonderful contributions to the game.

Day 2

This seems a little overly defensive to me...but as it is in response to Lottie who has been hounding everyone with biased reasoning, it could very well be that Agan is simply exasperated.

Inziladun

Day 1

No read on His Grace

Shasta

Day 1

His vote for Greenie came out of nowhere and looks to me as if it is a Wolf trying to perhaps save one of his own from being lynched. Yet would a Wolf be so bold?

++Shasta

Yes, this will probably end up being a throw-away vote, but I actually do find him a little suspicious. His vote for Greenie came out of absolutely nowhere and really had no substantial backing to it.

Legate

Day 1

Has definitely been one of the few people talking sense all Day. Yet his vote for Lottie has me a little perplexed. He stated that he did not like all the bandwagon votes and suspicions for her yet he himself later voted her? True he had stated suspicions of her for awhile, but his vote almost seems as if he's making it to ensure her being lynched....Hmmmm....

Legate is starting to stand out to me. He's making concise arguments, yes, but some of the points he is bringing up (like the one mentioned above) are things that would be fairly obvious to all of us with the exception of our new players. So why point it out?

Day 2

The reasoning for his vote is clear and respectable, but the overall tone seems a little too defensive.

Morsul

Day 1

Has seemed very Morsul like....which bugs me....Yet last time I voted him, he ended up being the Hunter and he Hunter killed me....So I think I'm going to leave him be for the time being.

Nienna

Day 1

Seems to be flying under the radar....perhaps a little too much, at least for my liking. Wolvish tactic to stay clear perhaps?

Lommy

Day 1

I have no read on her.

Brinniel

Day 1

Her posts all well thought out and full of substance.

----

On Day 2, he started with putting Legate and Sally as suspicious. That makes Legate look better since I doubt he'd list two wolves there. He later lists Mira and winty as possible suspects. Not sure about Mira, but the way he comments on winty makes it seem like he's preparing himself to join a winty bandwagon if that were to happen on a later Day. He voted Shasta on Day 1...since it was a throwaway, it could be wolf-on-wolf, but I don't know how likely that actually is.

I should go through Sally's comments as well, but I'm running out of time and would like to look at yesterDay first.

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Not sure about Mira, but the way he comments on winty makes it seem like he's preparing himself to join a winty bandwagon if that were to happen on a later Day. He voted Shasta on Day 1...since it was a throwaway, it could be wolf-on-wolf, but I don't know how likely that actually is.

Darling, I'm a girl. You know this.

[Aganzir]

Sorry, I've been horribly busy all day (first I had to finish a paper, then I had lectures and after that took a bus to another city to get a chair for me & Lommy's future apartment)... And I feel totally useless coming in so late.

Not surprised if Nog turns out to be a wolf. His response to my "I don't get why Green suspects him" sent chills down my spine when I read it in the night... Like, "why are you trying to downplay her suspicions and buddy up with me?"

Originally Posted by Shasta

May not mean much, but I think it's funny that they said basically the exact same thing.

No it means Legate & I are wolves and had agreed to vote for Inzil and say exactly that.

Just noting that Inzil defended Glirdan, saying he'd rather vote for Mira or Green (who had just voted for Nog).

I'm somewhat worried about Nerwen. Lommy said something about how she's calm and rational and appears to know more than the rest, and I can see where she's coming from. Yesterday she accused skippy of defending Glirdan, and there's something about her tone that suggests she knew Glirdy was a wolf. Like, she took a step ahead and used it as grounds for suspicion while most of us still didn't know Glirdan's role for sure.

Originally Posted by Inzil

And Glirdan? That was a most admirable ploy by Sally in trying to get him lynched Day 2. If that was just some fast thinking on her part, and wasn't planned out, I find it all the more amazing.

What's the point of saying that? Was it a nightly plan or not, it didn't work, and the whole comment is sort of creepy.

Originally Posted by Green, day 2

Nogrod – Usually, at this point of the game, I'm convinced he's a wolf. This far I guess he's never been one when we've played together. So now I'm wondering if I should get worried as I've found no reason to suspect him...

The comment could be interpreted so that she's dreamt of Wolfgrod but hasn't found a reason to suspect him yet without seeming to grasp at straws or getting the wolves after her which makes her frustrated.

I really don't like Inzil's analysis of Green's posts. It seems he's just looking for people she suspected and downplaying the fact that she called some people innocent.

It's also possible that Green dreamt of Lottie on night 2, and I wouldn't be surprised if it was the case.

Originally Posted by Lottie

I think maybe she did dream of Agan; she's been very solid in her support.

In that case I was most likely her night 1 dream. But I don't know, she kept flip-flopping about me and on day 2 she said "I'm not saying she's innocent" which a seer might not say about a dreamt-of innocent.

Originally Posted by Lottie

she dreamed either Agan or Legate, probably Agan, and Skip, and then Nog.

I'd add Brinn on the list. I think she always called her innocentish...

Originally Posted by Zil on Nog

Would he have been unnerved enough by her vote of him to have taken that risk?

Certainly because there is still one wolf. If he thought Green had found him out, he wanted to eliminate her before she managed to come out and possibly reveal the last wolf.

Originally Posted by Morsul

These three show an odd trend however Each One mentions a slip-up maybe She keeps saying something like "Wow I'm glad no one thought I was a wolf for that." As if relieved no one picked up on her mess up

I don't get what you're trying to say.

Originally Posted by Morsul

Seems to want us to not entirely trust our seer

No I didn't because as I said, I've won a game as a wolf because the seer trusted the cobbler whom she had seen as innocent.

Originally Posted by Morsul

First off thanks for calling me Lazy

You're welcome, if you want to interpret it that way. It wasn't really you that I called lazy, but the way you formulated your suspicions. You didn't have good enough reasons for me to call you innocent. Live with it.

Originally Posted by Morsul

wolves can hide behind these jokes and she's bee using them a lot.

A few days ago I was coming home in the evening and while sitting at the metro station some nutjobs came to me. One told me that some day I will see, that some day I will be cast into a fiery pit, and I said 'Okay,' and then another said to him: 'It's too late! Evil has already claimed her!'
I thought to tell it here but decided I had already joked enough about being evil. Does it comfort you at all?

Originally Posted by Morsul

Suspects Inzil for listening to him... Another Argument I've had. Why do we bother listing reasons unless we expect to persuade anyone?

It's not the fact that people do it but the way they do it.

Originally Posted by Morsul

I really don't like the way Agan's going after people who haven't used their retractions

Not doing that. I've been explaining why I think we should use them as soon as possible, but I haven't accused anyone of it.

Originally Posted by Morsul

Line she does something she condemns others for she take's nienna's word and changes suspicion.

No I didn't. You're making things up. I think I said quite clearly that I had not changed my mind about Mira but would like to hear more from her (and still do). All Nienna did was to explain why she thought in a different way than I, which I had asked her to do.

Originally Posted by Morsul

I'm Opportunistic Lazy a Horrible Person should be lynched right now

I think you fail to see I wasn't attacking you personally. I thought, and still do, that your playing style looked opportunistic. Live with it (or change your style).

Originally Posted by Morsul

Last Paragraph agains says she put Sally as supicious based only on what others said isn't that terrible thing to do Agan...

I think you misread. That's why I took her away from my guilty list. Because I didn't have much against her myself, apart from what others had said.

I don't know what to make of Morsul's analysis, but to be honest it amuses me. Anyway. As far as I'm concerned, people usually analyse others in order to make up their mind about someone, not to find every possible reason for suspecting them. Which I don't think was Morsul's intention, but which he seemed to be doing.
And I have no idea if it points toward his guilt or not. A few days ago I would totally have been at his throat for writing something like that, but now I neither know nor care much.

Lottie you're sweet! ♥ :-D

Lommy has a good point about the wolves not killing Greenie unless she had given them a reason to worry when they could've gone after Lottie instead, I think.

Originally Posted by Morsul

It doesn't say sees "Innocent or Wolf" it says "Their ROLE" Why wouldn't we trust a seers dream Agan...

*rolleyes* Because of this:

1 Cobbler: wants the Wolves to win, but is counted as an innocent and seen as innocent by the Seer.

And the same applies to the cursed (who doesn't even know her role), in case you're interested.

I like Nerwen's Nog analysis. However it doesn't help me make up my mind about Nerwen. Either she's innocent, or she has decided to go heavily against her fellow in order to better her own chances of survival. Unless Nog turns out to be innocent, in which case I don't know either.

Originally Posted by Brinn

She would look especially bad if Inzil is innocent since it'd look like she's trying to start another bandwagon.

I was. To me Inzil's death would have revealed more than Glirdan's, given that I had been concentrating on him quite a lot and on Glirdy not at all. I'm not sorry it was Glirdy who died but I'd still like to lynch Inzil.

I think Brinn looks good. I know she can be a horrible as a (lone) wolf but at the moment she's very helpful in an innocent way.

I'm prepared to vote for Nog today because I think he's our best bet. And even if he happens to be innocent, it's better for us to be rid of him than to keep wondering whether we should kill him or not.

[Nerwen]

#486
Examines "Glirdy-wagon", wondering "were the wolves trying to save Sally or are the wolves having a nightmarish start to the game?" Looks at the implications for Glirdan-voters in the scenarios that Glirdan was guilty and that he was innocent. If innocent, all three would look bad; if guilty, Lommy would look good but Skip and Inzil not so much, especially Zil.


#488. Clarifies a sentence in previous post.


#490
Looks at "those who walked their own paths" by not voting the favourites (Greenie, Agan, Shasta and Mira.) Finds all their votes somewhat suspicious and "would bet a lot for there being a wolf in this group - like in the group of Glirdy-voters".


#491
Looks at the Sally-voters. His own vote, Brinn's, Legate's and winty's look good; mine and Morsul's could go either way; Glirdy's was just self-preservation "whatever his role"; no comment on Nienna.

Comments: What's wrong with this post? Nothing– except that eight people voted Sally. How often has there not been a wolf in a bandwagon that big? And yet, he's "betting" on there being wolves only in the other, smaller groups.


#514.Announces he's back.


#521
Discusses Nienna, whose vote sealed Sally's fate

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Now if Glirdan is innocent that looks quite good (which doeasn't mean Nienna couldn't have done it as a wolf) but if Glirdy is a wolf it tells us nothing.

–Finds Skip's defence of Glirdan "interesting", but only from the point of view that a Skipwolf would be afraid of having Glirdan lynched and shown to be innocent, thus exposing Skipwolf's evil intentions in voting him.

Comments: The first point is fine, though it's odd that the voter who did most to kill the wolf is the one he seems to find least innocent. The other is just weird– really contorted reasoning. Why couldn't they both be wolves? Isn't that the first thing that springs to mind? (He does mention that possibility a bit later, but only in passing.)


#525
Responding to Agan, says that Greenie's suspicion of him is probably just due to her desire to be original, or because she read his comments to Sally "in some idiosyncratic fashion", or because he has been "a little less in the frontline this time", or because "in the end she has not played that many games with me". Doesn't suspect her much, but questions her shifting attitude to Glirdan. Is suddenly talking about Glirdan as though he knows he's a wolf– however, this is probably just for the sake of the argument, though he doesn't state that.

–Agrees with Zil that he'd find him suspicious whether Glirdan was innocent or guilty.

Comments: Naturally, anyone would want to defend himself when another player expresses strong suspicion– yet this way of smoothly explaining away Greenie's attack to a third party does look more than a bit sinister in the light of her role.


#529Praises Shasta for spotting an odd similarity in the wording of Agan and Legate's vote-posts:

Originally Posted by Nogrod

There is at least the shared kind of lazyness "you all know he is suspicious so I'll just vote him for it and not bother to make my points against him".

#539
Votes Glirdan (Glirdan 4) but is not happy with this, pointing out that Sally and Glirdan's early bantering was just IC and that Glirdan tends to be a suspicion magnet. Says it would be useful to know his alignment however. Says Innocent!Glirdan would make Lommy, Zil and Skip look bad, while Wolf!Glirdan would make Shasta, Mira, Greenie and Agan look bad.


#541
"Undecided" about Mira, finds Greenie "innocentish".

General Comments: well, he doesn't come out of it looking nearly as bad as Glirdan did when I analysed him– but on the whole I'd say he's "leaning furry".

EDIT:X'd since Morsul at #597.
EDIT2:word left out.

[Mirandir]

Hey guys sorry for not being around yesterDay. Finals week got a little more ridiculous than I though (ie I got fired from my job for bulls**t reasons). Unfortunately, my participation today won't be much better since I'll be in a car with my parents for the majority of it.

Before I take off though, I really don't like the way Morsul looks today. Given, I haven't actually read all that closely yet, but he's talked more toDay than he has the entire game. That to me is suspicious.

Hopefully when I get home tonight I'll be able to actually back that statement up.