WW LXXV: It's Always Tea Time Here

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Okay, so in other words, that sort of makes one think about voting Glirdy just for the sake of untangling that knot of questions.

When looking at the two scenarios though, Glirdan is innocent, and Glirdan is guilty, you must bare in mind that him being innocent is much likelier than not. Out of the remaining 16 villagers there are 3 wolves. Given that the accusations against Glirdan are not built on any solid evidence, they are perhaps even incidental, the probability that he is an innocent villager (or gifted) is a lot higher than him being a wolf (what, like 5 times?) There's no going around that.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by skip spence

When looking at the two scenarios though, Glirdan is innocent, and Glirdan is guilty, you must bare in mind that him being innocent is much likelier than not. Out of the remaining 16 villagers there are 3 wolves. Given that the accusations against Glirdan are not built on any solid evidence, they are perhaps even incidental, the probability that he is an innocent villager (or gifted) is a lot higher than him being a wolf (what, like 5 times?) There's no going around that.

Well, if I was going by the odds, I would never lynch anybody, as by the statistics, EVERYBODY is more likely to be innocent than a Wolf, it's always 3:13 or how many are we here. (That's why maths don't work and aside from that, I hate maths *moves a bit further away from the post with disgust*.) But most importantly, I was more like thinking aloud - I certainly would not vote him randomly just to see what his role is, that would be utterly stupid. That's also the reason why I do not really want to vote him, since apart from this curisity I have very little that I suspect him for (like I said above, anyway).

I am rethinking, let me see now the list of people for the last time and then I probably vote and be gone. I have to sleep.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, so simply put it looks like it finally came to voting my sort of long-term suspect,

++Inziladun

who is the person I suspect the most in general at the moment.

Good night, people, and vote well.

EDIT: x-ed with Greenie and Shasta

[A Little Green]

Bed-time! I've been flip-flopping on whether to vote Nog or Glirdy, and decided to go for

++ Nogrod

Now I'm not sure if this is a throwaway, I suppose one could see it as such, but I just feel I should stir the pot a bit. I find Nogrod very suspicious, he's being too agreeable and nudging things from the background, and his interactions with Sally seemed quite wolf-on-wolf to me.

I won't be disappointed if Glirdy gets lynched. Unless he's an innocent, of course. That said, good night babes!


EDIT: x-ed with leggy-leggy-legz

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Bed-time! I've been flip-flopping on whether to vote Nog or Glirdy, and decided to go for

++ Nogrod

Now I'm not sure if this is a throwaway, I suppose one could see it as such, but I just feel I should stir the pot a bit. I find Nogrod very suspicious, he's being too agreeable and nudging things from the background, and his interactions with Sally seemed quite wolf-on-wolf to me.

I won't be disappointed if Glirdy gets lynched. Unless he's an innocent, of course. That said, good night babes!


EDIT: x-ed with leggy-leggy-legz

I do see it as a bit of a throwaway, honestly. I don't think anyone else so far has mentioned Nog (which worries me a bit, now that I think about it, considering that he's usually at the forefront of the discussion...) but your last comment looked like you're setting yourself up to look good if Glirdan is lynched and flips as a wolf.

I'm probably going to be voting Greenie today, but I should be around for a while.

[skip spence]

I've been thinking about this post by Sally. It was posted early on day two when she had already received 2 votes, knew she was in trouble, but still must have figured she could escape with so many people left to vote.

Originally Posted by Sally

Glirdan: He's honestly not been around much. What he's said is a bit strange, but at the same time I don't have a good enough hold on him to specifically say "Kill! Kill". He is, however, popping onto other people's suspicions and things, which seems very wolfish the way he's doing it. Wolf? Maybe!
Nogrod: Well he's busy, but he's too quiet even for a busy Nog. I'm concerned.
Wintywinty: The newbie pass is gone. Yes, you made a newbie mistake and you admit it, but that doesn't mean you're innocent. There's wolf cubs too, after all.
Boro88: Dead! Dead, dead, dead! *spites Lottie for picking on her so much*
Isabellkya: Surprisingly I'm getting good vibes from her. I'll certainly not be voting her toDay.
Mira: No feeling on her one way or the other.
Sally: LEAVE ME ALONE! Lol. Sorry, I hate being suspected for rubbish reasons. You wanna suspect me, fine, but don't create reasoning that's not the truth.
Agan: I need to keep a close eye on her because, frankly, I have no idea.
Inzil: Not a wolf. Plain and simple. Don't ask me how I know, I just do.
Shasta: First of all, no, I didn't follow his suspicions, I had my own. *is just saying* Anyway he's been acting quite strange lately and had some opinions on people that I think have been formed for the wrong reasons. Wolf, mehbe? *nods*
Lottie: Obviously innocent (unless she's lying) but she's really irking me. Just because you're a known innocent doesn't mean you are right about everything.
Nerwen: No evil vibes. As in, I'm getting them, so I know she's not evil.
Legate: I stand by my suspicions of yesterDay.
Morsul: Ditto. Opportunistic and a lemming. Such a wolf in my eyes.
Nienna: Not a lot on her, or rather not a lot of bad. I think she's safe.
Skip: He's not concerning me at all right now.
Lommie: I'm still worried about her, but she's not at the top of my list now.
Greenie: I see Lottie's case against her but I legitimately refuse to follow Lottie.
Brinniel: No worries from her either.

It's a whole bunch of could be's and very bland really.

But the suspects she list (and remember, at this point she would be hoping that one of these suspects is picked up and that this would save her hide) is interesting though I think. I somehow doubt that she would list more than one, possibly two, fellow wolves. She doesn't want to set up a pack-mate at this point, that I think is clear from her bland list, she hopes to set up an innocent in her place. Which is why I think that there's only one, at most two, wolves in this list:

Morsul
Legate
Glirdan
Winty
Shasta

Who then. Well... Shasta, possibly. Don't know...

[skip spence]

Votes so far (correct me if I'm wrong):
Morsul -> Glirdan
Brinn -> Glirdan
Greenie -> Nogrod
Legate -> Inzil

Hm. Will need to vote soon too. Hm. Needs to think about this.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

With Inzil it's again a bit different. First of all it must be noted that Inzil votes in a situation where one could actually count the votes to come and see the possibility of Glirdan being actually lynched over Sally. So in case of Glirdy being innocent I'd think that vote especially incriminating for Zil. But it would be quite a nice move also in the case Glirdy is a wolf as at that point he could also speculate with the slimness of the chances of getting Glirdy lynched and thus look better later as an independent thinker who gets it right.

So, regardless of Glirdan's alignment, I'm suspicious. Thanks, Nog.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Otherwise, I don't have particularly specific reasons to suspect Glirdan (as I didn't have earlier) other than the things implied toDay, as I have also mentioned earlier toDay, possible co-packing with sally and all that. If it wasn't for this, I thing I actually wouldn't be suspecting him at all - so now I am not really thinking about voting him toDay, but somebody else.

This from the one who took me to task for not originally entertaining the idea that Sally's last words about Glirdan were potentially wolf on wolf.

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Okay, actually it seems really many things depend on whether Glirdan is innocent or not.

Yet you voted for me.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I'd prefer voting Glirdan or Nogrod toDay. Glirdan's death, as has been mentioned, would shed light to many things, and his interactions with Sally were very fishy. Nogrod's interactions with Sally looked bad too, and I don't like how he's been slipping under pretty much everyone's radar, being nice and invisible yet contributing. I could also vote Shasta or Inzil, but would prefer one of the earlier two.

Your suspicions of Nog are rather vague, are they not?

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Bed-time! I've been flip-flopping on whether to vote Nog or Glirdy, and decided to go for

highlight]++ Nogrod[/highlight]

Now I'm not sure if this is a throwaway, I suppose one could see it as such, but I just feel I should stir the pot a bit. I find Nogrod very suspicious, he's being too agreeable and nudging things from the background, and his interactions with Sally seemed quite wolf-on-wolf to me.

I won't be disappointed if Glirdy gets lynched. Unless he's an innocent, of course. That said, good night babes!

This did seem to come out of left field. Do you really think Nog is the best candidate? This looks like a convenient way to keep your hands clean, as Shasta said.

x/d with all since 509

[Shastanis Althreduin]

This seems like a rather sudden bandwagon on Inziladun (or I'm just dense and didn't see it coming, which is quite possible currently. )

I think my next task is to go look at everyone who voted Inzil to see why.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Your suspicions of Nog are rather vague, are they not?
This did seem to come out of left field. Do you really think Nog is the best candidate? This looks like a convenient way to keep your hands clean, as Shasta said.

I agree. Greenie's voting has been very clean, always keeping her pretty little nose clean. That is suspicious.

As it is, I'm leaning towards voting Shasta. He too has been voting very clean, never getting in the centre of the attention. Very, as it may seem, sneeky. I've little liking for the possible Glirdan bandwagon, for reasons I've explained, and for him being away. It seems unfair to lynch a man unheard. Not really into Inzil for reasons also expressed. Have my doubts about Agan but will not vote on her tonight. Therefore Shasta I think...

10 min to think.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by skip spence

I agree. Greenie's voting has been very clean, always keeping her pretty little nose clean. That is suspicious.

As it is, I'm leaning towards voting Shasta. He too has been voting very clean, never getting in the centre of the attention. Very, as it may seem, sneeky. I've little liking for the possible Glirdan bandwagon, for reasons I've explained, and for him being away. It seems unfair to lynch a man unheard. Not really into Inzil for reasons also expressed. Have my doubts about Agan but will not vote on her tonight. Therefore Shasta I think...

10 min to think.

It's a little odd to be voting someone for seeming too innocent. Just saying.

In any case, I could have sworn there were more votes for Zil, but there are only two () and, like Nerwen, I consider the third vote the start of the bandwagon. So it's not quite one, yet.

However, I did note something interesting...

Agan -

Originally Posted by Aganzir

I don't think I'm going to change my mind so I might as well vote.

++Inziladun

Simply because I suspect him the most so far, and I want to know his role in order to know which way my suspicions should proceed.

Legate -

Originally Posted by Legate

Okay, so simply put it looks like it finally came to voting my sort of long-term suspect,

++Inziladun

who is the person I suspect the most in general at the moment.

May not mean much, but I think it's funny that they said basically the exact same thing.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

May not mean much, but I think it's funny that they said basically the exact same thing.

Nice spotting. There is at least the shared kind of lazyness "you all know he is suspicious so I'll just vote him for it and not bother to make my points against him". Hmm....

Is it something one should turn an eye on or only D3 tiredness and people wishing to get to sleep asap (they both voted around midnight our time)?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Actually, I was thinking just now, and Skip and Greenie have the exact same reason for thinking I'm suspicious. That's a little strange, I think.

[skip spence]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

It's a little odd to be voting someone for seeming too innocent. Just saying. :

You see, I wasn't saying you look too innocent, I was saying you look guilty for trying to look innocent. Or something like that.

It's not a very strong case, I know that, but I need to vote and it's the best I theory I can come up with at the moment and, as I said, I'm not happy with following neither of the possible bandwagons so far.

++Shasta

[skip spence]

But yeah, with all the hype it would be interesting to see what Glirdan is.

Goodnight, I'll go to sleep now and hope a lucky star will shine on me tonight.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by skip spence

You see, I wasn't saying you look too innocent, I was saying you look guilty for trying to look innocent. Or something like that.

It's not a very strong case, I know that, but I need to vote and it's the best I theory I can come up with at the moment and, as I said, I'm not happy with following neither of the possible bandwagons so far.

++Shasta

But... that's... the same thing.

In any case, I haven't seen anything yet that makes me not want to vote Greenie, and I have rehearsal in a few minutes, so...

++Greenie

I still think she's the most suspicious (as for the Glirdan wagon, there are points both for and against him, but I'm seeing some people voting him for what it will say about others, and I just can't agree with that).

[Nienna]

Hello all, sorry I haven't been around much until now but I've had a rather crazy day. Ok... a list:

Innocent:
Lottie – sheriff

Leaning Innocent:
Skip – he seems genuine and new at this… and not in the new-helped-by-packmates way either. He speculates on wolf-theory that experience has shown the rest of us in a way that to me seems like an innocent getting no help from pack-mates.
Brinn – she seems like she’s making an effort and she isn’t being very suspicious
Mira – maybe it’s just because I know how she plays but she isn’t looking very furry to me
Agan – seems like she’s making sense and after my epic analysis of her yesterday I’m thinking she’s an ordo -- now after her Zil vote I'm not so sure ...
Nerwen – she’s seems to be making sense… she’s someone I should probably do a thorough analysis of… most likely toMorrow if I’m alive
Lommy – nothing of her’s really sticks out as being furry
Greenie – same as Lommy really

No Idea/ No Read
Nog - seems not like the Nog I've played with before... I don't yet know what this says
Zil - is getting a rather lot of suspicion lately but I'm not quite sure why... he just seems a bit defensive for my taste at the moment.
Shasta - something about him isn't sitting quite right with me
Morsul – I didn’t like his opportunistic vote for Sally yesterDay
Legate – what is a little concerning about Legate right now is that Sally voted for him Day One… this is nothing against Legate but it makes me question my general tendency to trust him
WinWin - need to hear more from him toDay

Leaning Guilty
Glirdy - I wish he was here to defend himself but I think that it makes more sense to lynch him and find out his role than to just leave him to be a constant worry on us.

I should be around until Deadline now though I have to do homework so I can't do any major analysis.