Arda Cup Football 2010

[Boromir88]

The friendlies have concluded and the Arda Cup is now in full swing. The Two Towers Network will give analysis on all 8 groups and the best phantasy insight you will ever find. It was rather difficult predicting the friendly matches, because you can't tell how teams will decide to perform during exhibitions. But, now the teams are tournament ready, and I am too. Let the games begin!

GROUP A - completely defense-focused from all the teams, so this is going to be a difficult group to predict, as 1 goal will likely be good enough to win the match (or at least force a draw). Each match is going to be a battle, and it's going to be more about what defense doesn't have a lapse to give the opposing offense a quality chance to score.

Aman- Coming into group play Aman is looking like the favorite to win the group, according to most betting agencies. It's true their friendly schedule wasn't very difficult, but the modest 12.5% scoring is double everyone else in the group, and defensively they are arguably the best. The thing I like about the offense is the steady efficiency, they're not flashy, but you know what you're going to see each match. Other teams like Barad Dur have more dangerous attacks, but are totally unreliable. Aman doesn't create many chances, but they're quality chances and it's got a machine-like efficiency. Because of this (backed by a strong defense) Aman are the favorites to take first. They will have trouble advancing far beyond group play. I can see possibly getting into the quarter-finals, but not much farther.
*Top phantasy scorer(s)- GK-Nienna (18)

Beleriand- Could beat Ithilien but that will be a difficult task, and an even harder one will be faced when going against Vinyamar. TTN agrees with AKM that they may not look as bad as the experts are making them sound, but they haven't show much promise to be able to score, and defensively they are a few notches below both Aman and Vinyamar. They've allowed 2 less goals than Ithilien, but the offenses they faced in the friendlies can not be compared to what Ithilien was up against. Simply because of the fact that Ithilien's and Vinyamar's offenses are just as dreadfully unreliable, Beleriand has a small chance to snatch 2nd, but if they make it out of the group, they won't make it past their first playoff game.
*Top phantasy scorer(s)- GK-Halmir (14)

Ithilien- Pretty much the same story as Beleriand. That is they could beat Beleriand, but it will be hard to get past Aman and Vinyamar. The bigger upside to Ithilien (over Beleriand) is they faced 3 high-powered offenses in the friendlies (Valimar - 15%, Thangorodrim - 20%, Havens - 15.1%) and the sneaky Ranger defense held up pretty good. It only allowed one more shot on target than Beleriand. The question mark remains to be the Mumak at goal. It's shown to be able to stand up well to powerful blasts, but when opposing FWs get in close, it's a bit of a clutz and doesn't handle the shot well...often being unable to adjust or allowing the ball to eek through the legs. Have a moderately better chance to snatch 2nd, but again if they make it out, they will be a first round exit in the playoffs.
*Top phantasy scorer(s)- GK- Mumakil (12)

Vinyamar- Have an outside shot at taking 1st place, but really that's Aman's to lose. Defensively they are arguable better than Aman, but really there's no significant difference between them. The edge, defensively, is slightly in Vinyamar's favour, as they held Tirion and Havens to 1 goal a piece. However, offensively, they've been as much of a threat as Ithilien and Beleriand would be. And they weren't exactly playing defenses as good as the ones they will meet in this group. They are going to be the favorites for 2nd, and it will be there's to lose, but if they rely too much on their defense to hold, Ithilien or Beleriand could steal it. If they make it out of group play, they won't make it past the first round.
*Top phantasy scorer(s)- GK- Rog (18)

Predicted Group Standings:
1. Aman
2. Vinyamar
3. Beleriand
4. Ithilien

[Boromir88]

GROUP B- The most difficult of the 8 groups to call, but I might add, not the deepest. There are groups that will be more competitive because the talent of the teams are better, but I'm seriously contemplating copping out and giving all the teams a 25% chance of finishing 1st, 25% of 2nd...etc. Anyone can win and that means anyone's championship hopes can be dashed early by finishing 3rd or 4th. The winner of this group will be the team who will surprise us with something we haven't seen yet.

Barad Dur- The team with the biggest budget of the group, which by default means they are going to be the favorites, but way too many question marks to put strong faith as the favorites. If they don't get 1st, there will probably be some loud grumblings from Mordor fans, but if they are eliminated from group play you can bet all of Barad-dur will be unleashed in rage. The upside is they can score, in the group only Breeland had a better goal percentage, and that's not a bad thing to say. And while their friendly schedule wasn't all that challenging, it was tougher than their fellows from across the plain. They beat Bree, but this is a whole new game, whole new monster, don't be surprised with a different result. The biggest concern with Barad Dur is which team is going to show up? Because they really have the talent to make a long run in the playoffs, but also be a terrible flop and finish 4th.
*Top phantasy scorer(s)- **FW- Sauron (17)

Barrow Downs- After the exhibitions they are quickly rising in popularity and may be picked the favorites by more than a few loners in the football world. It's hard to find a weakness in their overall solid statistics during, especially with Eomerwarg stopping the shots he has been after the bad first game. I will say my primary concern with the Barrow Downs is the giant slayer syndrome. They seem to play more to the level of their competition, and not the best of their ability each and every game. That is, they get fired up to beat the giants (such as Gondolin and Numenor) but then play down to Rohan and Gorgoroth. This is not to knock Rohan and Gorgoroth, but if the Downs can beat the giants, they should have beaten Rohan and Gorgoroth. So the draws with those two are a little concerning. With that said, it's hard to discount the stats, they have a better chance than the rest of taking one of the top 2 spots.
*Top phantasy scorer(s)- GK- Eomerwarg (16)

Breeland- The defense will be their un-doing, plain as that. The 30 shots on target was far more than any of the other goalies in the group had to face, and OMW's percentage is nothing to brag about. You can't count them completely out, because of Bombadil. However, you also have to put less faith in their chance to advance...because of Bombadil. This is a group where every game will be of dire importance to win. To most players that is enough to get them to play their best every game, but not Bombadil. A pity, because he is a fabulous player to watch, and Bree fans love him for it, but there will be lots of moments where Bombadil will simply not play, and Bree can't afford it when he does.
*Top phantasy scorer(s)- *FW- Bombadil (17)

Gorgoroth- This is a difficult team to firm a solid conclusion about, because they went undefeated in the friendlies, yet their statistics are pretty mediocre. Their 6 goals were the fewest of the group, and they also created the fewest chances. Now, defensively they allowed the fewest shots on target, but the amount of cards they pick up is going to be a problem. Plus it seems like when playing skilled FWs, Shelob isn't as dominant as she might think she is, giving up 2 goals to Dale in their last match. And Shelob will be up against stronger FWs when facing the teams in their group. While able to get goals themselves, they aren't going to be able to outscore a Barad-dur team on it's full game, let alone Breeland. If one Barad Dur doesn't make it out, can you imagine the chaos in Mordor if neither of their teams make it!
*Top phantasy scorer(s)- GK- Shelob (16)

Predicted Group Standings:
1. Barad Dur
2. Barrow Downs
3. Breeland
4. Gorgorth
(Haha, alphabetical order)

[Boromir88]

GROUP C- It looks like the sure lock for 1st is Mithrim. 2nd will be up for grabs between the other three. It will be a tight race, but not particularly exciting since they are not great teams, more mediocrely even.

Mithrim- There is no reason to believe Mithrim will not sweep the group, even if some would call their friendly performance disappointing. I can't see anyone being serious challengers to Mithrim. The excitement and true test for Mithrim to prove themselves will be in the first playoff game. TTN is projecting Mithrim will play either Valimar or Thangordrim in the first playoff, and either one of those teams will make for a great match up. The winner will quickly shoot up as the favorites to take home the Arda Cup.
*Top phantasy scorer(s): **GK-Huan (18)

Nargothrond- historically Nargothrond has not only made, but been tough competitors, in the playoffs. This is the first year TTN thinks it is more likely Nargothrond will miss out. There is history and experience working for Nargothrond, but they are vastly depleted in talent from previous tournaments. The good news, for any fan of the sport, is Finrod will never allow his guys to quit, so all of their matches will be close down to the last minutes. However, when I look at Nargothrond's line-up, I think of veteran finesse pitchers in baseball. They're solid players, because of their knowledge and wisdom for the sport. However, you don't fear them, like you would facing a pitcher who can throw 102mph. When you look at Nargothrond's line-up, everyone knows their talent, but there is no Feanor, there is no one an opponent will fear. They are a good team, but ultimately a beatable one, and Norbury and Pelennor know it.
*Top phantasy scorer(s): GK- Beor (8)

Norbury- I like Norbury's chances to finish 2nd better than Nargothrond and Pelennor. Their friendly schedule was brutal. Tirion and Thangorodrim are heavy semi-final favorites and have some of the best odds to win the championship. While the Havens and Rohan have high hopes and look like playoff-caliber teams too, Nargothrond and Pelennor don't. In most other groups, Norbury would have a tough time advancing. They match up well against a careful, mistake-free Nargothrond, because Norbury stresses the same but has a clear edge scoring. It is going to be against Pelennor where Norbury will have the most trouble. Their defense allowed 27 shots on target, while their offense got 15. Pelennor loves to attack, Norbury's D will be hard-pressed.
*Top phantasy scorer(s): FW- Araphor (11)

Pelennor- It's going to be a peculiar situation, because the match against Norbury is one that Pelennor could easily win. However, they don't match up well against the much sturdier defenses of Mithrim and Nargothrond. Even with a win over Norbury, in a freak way, Norbury could still finish above them(depending on if Norbury can best Nargothrond). The key match will be against Nargothrond. If they get at least a draw, and with a win over Norbury, you have to like their chances of advancing
*Top phantasy scorer(s): FW- Legolas (15)

Predicted Group Standings
1. Mithrim
2. Norbury
3. Pelennor
4. Nargothrond

GROUP D- Kind of like Group C, where it should be replatively easy for Eithel Sirion to win the group, and the battle for 2nd will close between the other 3 teams. However, the Group D teams look all around stronger than Group C.

Dale- Dale had a rought start to the friendlies, and looked to be in utter shambles, but has gotten more consideration by surprisingly posting an 18.8% goal-percentage. But the combined skill of Smaug and Thranduil will not be enough for Dale to advance. Over half their team finished the friendlies with negative phantasy points. With the amount of cards the defense picks up, as well as allowing the most shots on target (37), they can't advance. At least fans will be treated to some great goals.
*Top phantasy scorer(s): FW- Smaug (15)

Eithel Sirion- Have proven themselves on both offense and defense. While not the strongest defense in the tournament, no one in this group should give them too much of a problem. The thing that strikes me the most about Eithel Sirion is the even spread of talent, they define a complete team. Only Bregor had no phantasy points, and 7 players ended with 10+. Expect to see a drop in that output, but having 1 or 2 players from Sirion on your phantasy teams would be a wise move.
*Top phantasy scorer(s): *MF- Hador (21)

Gelion- They could be too tough defensively for Dale and Rohan, but I doubt their ability to score enough to win. They allowed the fewest shots on target, but Dior also conceded at least 1 goal a match. If that trend continues, Gelion isn't good enough to get 2 goals and win. And draws won't be enough to sneak by in this group, the other teams are too good offensively to not pick up wins against eachother.
*Top phantasy scorer(s): GK- Dior (12)

Rohan- There are many questions about their defense. Offensively they will be fine, they had as many chances as Eithel Sirion, and only 1 less goal. They also gave up 8 goals though, and the only great offensive power-house they played was Dol Guldur. They'll be confident having defeated Dale earlier, and despite the sub-par defense it still should be good enough to hold Gelion to 1-goal. Also, of the three, I give them the best chance at a surprise knock-off of Eithel Sirion. Their offensive outputs are virtually even, but their entire defense has downgraded from last year. Even at GK, Theoden is performing better for Pelennor than Fram is for Rohan.
*Top phantasy scorer(s): FW- Eorl (18)

Predicted Group Standings
1. Eithel Sirion
2. Rohan
3. Gelion
4. Dale

[the phantom]

If you're having trouble coming up with your team or making predictions, this may help you.

If you have trouble understanding it, I'd be happy to give a more detailed explanation (unless someone else beats me to it).

[the phantom]

(Sorry about the link. It was April Fool's Day and I couldn't resist. )

Using friendlies to predict the course of a tournament is a tricky business. One never knows precisely what the teams are aiming for during their run-throughs and what they are holding back as a strategy. In addition, a team can look rather off pre-tournament and suddenly find chemistry during group play. With that said (and thus our behinds completely covered) here is the after-friendly breakdown by MESPN’s football blogging team, featuring their best and most vague guesses as to what's going on.

Aman- They showed the ability to hang tough with the rough teams and run with the quick teams. They were very sound fundamentally, though undoubtedly they will have to kick up the effort a notch once the matches mean more. A decent round of friendlies for them overall, but not statistically dominant by any means, so there shouldn’t be any overconfidence there.

Barad-Dur- The offense appears to be, for the most part, primed and ready to go, and captain Sauron says that the sub-par defensive performance was partly due to all focus being on bringing the offense together. Also, it appears that their plus one scoring margin does not accurately reflect that shot margin they enjoyed against their foes, so their prospects are likely to average out to a better level.

Barrow-Downs- They began things with a couple of ho-hum ties in which they appeared content just to get a bit of practice in, but in the last couple games they turned things up a bit, making sure that they’re ready to go full speed into the tournament. The fact that they weren’t merely dominated athletically by Gondolin and Numenor is promising, though we’ll have to see if they are able to raise their game as many levels as the other elite teams when it counts.

Beleriand- They played in a similar manner to what they will in the tournament, and demonstrated the ability to keep matches close against all foes, though they only managed to scrape out two ties. Once they up the intensity and speed for the tournament, they will perhaps be better able to translate their efforts into victories, so long as their execution remains constant.

Breeland- They played in a rather loose and relaxed manner in the friendlies, but that is the way they prefer to play anyway, so in group play we can expect more of the same from the offense, but who knows if the defense will be able to rise to the occasion. Captain Strider says that they will, and that friendlies was merely “fun-time” for the team. “We’ve been training hard and needed a break from the grind.”

Bywater- In playing some rather gifted athletic teams, Bywater impressed by staying even with them for the most part. The Hobbits in particular were much improved (this year’s Ent-draught is said to be a special new formula), and the Nazgul, Wizards, horse, and elf were as good as ever. Though they were outscored, they actually outshot their opponents, and the shots weren’t poor, and so they hope to see the numbers average out to their favor all on their own.

Dale- They experienced many problems in their friendlies. Their talent is fine, but they seem disjointed- unable to piece together their talent. How best to take advantage of Roac and Carc’s aerial abilities on defense? How to get the ball up to the forwards more efficiently? These are the questions that must be answered for Dale to find success. Most of all they have to cut down on the amount of shots they allow at their goal.

Dol Guldur- They were certainly unable to withstand the skill and speed of Gondolin in that second round, but other than that they held their own with everyone, outshooting Rohan, Gondor, and Thangorodrim. Since attack is what they plan to do, I’d say they’re ready to play in tournament form, particularly when you consider that Oropher’s save percentage has surely bottomed out. I mean, it can’t get worse, right?

Doriath- Things would be much worse for Doriath if not for Melian making twenty-one saves, which partly masked the problems their defense had. Their offensive problems were obvious, and they need to figure out a way to do something on that end- anything at all to provide some balance, even if it’s only holding onto the ball and denying their opponents.

Eithel Sirion- Overall solid work on their way to sweeping their friendlies. This team proved it has top of the line talent, but Maedhros and Fingon told their team last night that “Talent alone cannot win once everyone is playing with full effort and strategy.” So, while their fans should feel quite pleased and looking forward to making a run in this tournament, the team captains are guarding against overconfidence.

Gelion- They proved that they know how to play some smart defense, holding Barad-Dur, Rivendell, and Lorien to one goal. Now in group play we just have to wait and see if they’re able to put it in the net more with their counter going full speed. Captain Beren: “We will look to utilize the element of surprise with sudden counters, so obviously it wouldn’t do to give everyone a feel for it early on in the friendlies.”

Gondolin- In the first two games they proved that they have the athleticism and skill to run away with a game when the stakes aren’t high, and that seemed to be enough for them. In the games against Barrow-Downs and Aman they elected not to ramp up their attack to counter those more cohesive defenses, but rather focus on keeping the score low and saving energy for the groups. We’ll see if that strategy pays off, or if they lose their edge.

Gondor- All in all they played even with everyone, upping their game somewhat for the better teams and relaxing when possible. They seem to have gelled early and felt comfortable using the friendlies as a mere practice- making sure they were prepared for the skill they’d see from their competitors.

Gorgoroth- They showed some very tough defense for the majority of their matches, and the other teams in their group are going to experience some soreness win or lose. The only problem is, they’re getting carded right and left, and if they up the intensity for group play, will that mean even more cards? They’d better show some control there.

Havens- They played some good ball during the course of friendlies, and showed the ability to come out ahead in low and high-scoring affairs. Given the teams they played their defense was not exactly stellar, however it must be pointed out that they were always holding the lead and were perhaps content to let the other side take their shot at the scoreboard.

Ithilien- They kept the game at one goal difference gainst Valimar, Havens, and Wold, so nicely done there, except for the fact that losing by one goal doesn’t gain points. Though perhaps all this new team cared about was gaining confidence, and showing themselves they could compete while saving their best effort and tricks for group play. We’ll see.

Lorien- Overall decent play from Lorien, but they had better be ready to show more on offense once group play starts, though it’s true that they did what was necessary for the most part against defensive oriented teams. Galadriel was as solid as ever, so she’ll be pleased with that end. Celeborn needs more looks on the other end though if they plan to keep even against shot-happy teams. Galadriel can only save so many.

Minas Anor- They didn’t let any of their opponents run and hide on them, but the fact remains that they were statistically beaten and they need to do something different to start picking up points in the standings. Their shot selection was not good, which is probably the primary problem that needs to be addressed.

Misty Mts- They proved to be as violent as advertised, and didn’t let anyone get away from them, suffering three single goal losses and forging a tie. If other teams wear down before they do, it is then a promising style for later rounds especially. Though of course there is the problem of cards- it’s difficult to win when you’re one man short.

Mithrim- It was a nice warm-up for them, going up against several good teams and coming out ahead on the stat sheet every time. Once things get more serious, expect Turin and Beleg to turn up the heat like usual. They’ve worked together so much that they never have to worry about using friendlies to get rid of rust, and elected to rest for the most part during friendlies.

Nargothrond- Don’t jump off a cliff yet, Nargothrond fans. While they may have finished with no victories or ties, they were competitive in every contest and were even on the stat sheet at the end of friendlies. So while they certainly aren’t in a position to feel accomplished, they are poised to compete, and with an increase in efficiency can do just that.

Norbury- There’s no getting around the fact that Norbury lost their games and was beaten statistically to boot, but the die-hards aren’t panicking at this point, as Norbury was visibly playing with low energy and effort. It is quite usual for these lads to play according to the moment, rising to the occasion when necessary, particularly with late game heroics. This is a very frustrating team for a prognosticator to deal with.

Numenor- Opening with three solid wins, Numenor certainly showed that they hadn’t lost everything from last year, but their final game against Barrow-Downs wasn’t the way to end. Perhaps the critics are right when they say they’re missing the necessary flair this year. They look like they’ll have some success, but to go far they’ll have to find that edge.

Pelennor- They started off looking promising, but those last couple of ties with Bywater and Gondor were perhaps a bit lucky, as Theoden had to face more and tougher shots than his comrade on the other end of the pitch. He showed last year he’s up for a challenge, but the defense needs to protect him better.

Rivendell- Elrond was at it again, saving 15 of 17 shots he saw. But while allowing two goals in four games may look promising, the fact remains that the defense did not do a good enough job in getting the ball up into the other half of the field. And when they did, the possession game of the offense was off, and they weren’t able to secure the best shots. That needs to change if they want to advance deep.

Rohan- They had promising friendlies overall, showing that they were working well together and hanging around athletically with everyone they faced. The real downside was the way they finished, with Dol Guldur really able to be effective against their defense. They were lucky to get the tie in that one, and they’ll need to step it up in group play.

Thangorodrim- Up until Utumno no one was able to bother Thangordrim’s offense much, as they pretty well held it when they wanted and went where they wanted, and with finishers like they have naturally that led to goals. Always running out to three goal leads, there was never any reason for the defense to do their best, so we’ll have to see how they do when called upon.

Tirion- They played a rather curious round of friendlies. Successful (three wins and a tie), but not at all in the style expected. They kept their explosive offense reigned in, and instead played as if holding a three goal lead at all times, focusing on defense and holding the ball. They allowed fewer shots on their goal than any other team. Captain Feanor: “We expect to find ourselves ahead a lot, so we wanted to work on holding a lead. We’ll let loose with our offense once group play begins. No reason to waste energy now.”

Utumno- It definitely appeared as if Utumno was conserving their energy for group play, coasting along on their top-notch talent through the friendlies, content with a couple close wins and a tie. Knowing full well that Valimar could very likely be a playoff opponent, Utumno really went into a shell for that game, showing as little as possible to their foes. That’s a good strategy so long as Utumno is able to turn it on and play well full speed once it’s time.

Valimar- Their defense was suffocating and the offense was efficient, but we already knew they were savvy, experienced, and athletically capable (which translates to friendly wins). The question is, will they still be that effective once everyone is going all out against them? Will they find some fire? They never had to exert themselves, so their first major test in group play will tell much more about them.

Vinyamar- They played extremely conservatively and without any sort of life, almost as if wanting to fast forward to group play. With the talent they have and their style, it’s not completely surprising that even playing like that they managed not to lose, but not losing isn’t good enough once the tournament begins. They’d better be able to kick it up at this stage.

Wold- Despite picking up three wins and a tie, Wold shouldn’t get too comfortable. They had the fortune of playing exclusively against ineffective or apathetic offenses, and actually got out-shot by three of their four opponents. So while they were a pleasant surprise in not making errors and playing cohesively and with good spirit, they still need to improve to make a run.

[Boromir88]

*note: I seemed to have left my stat sheet on my laptop which I will not have access too all weekend. Therefor, I will not be able to give the teams top phantasy scorers of the friendlies for the final 4 groups. My apologies to all those loyal phantasy readers.

These two groups are the deepest and will be the most competive of the tournament. 6 teams have great talent and reasonable chances of making the playoffs. The other 2 are no slouches either, they are just unfortunate to get the tough draw. There will be no "sure and easy" wins in these groups

GROUP E

Misty Mountains- Their best weapon is physicality which can wear down and bruise their opponents. The problem isn't just running the risk of having players sent off with cards, but I can't see a hard-hitting defense being very effective against the teams in this group. The hardy Numenoreans are difficult to wear down and then there's Utumno, who's front line players will scare even the trolls. It may work to their advantage against Rivendell, but Elrond's teams are always composed and don't get drawn into making silly mistakes, like being coaxed into a foul. And as far as the defenses they'll be up against? They should consider getting 1-goal in 3 games a success.

Numenor- The previous 2 years the Numenoreans have put together some of the best tournament teams. I'm just not seeing the same fate this year. Tar Atanamir struggled in Numenor's last friendly, but I wouldn't worry about that. He'd be a fine GK for phantasy teams, as always, and still relatively cheap. They're lacking the scoring threat this year, especially when they will have to be up against the defenses of Rivendell and Utumno. And to be frank, if the Misty Mountains keeps all 11-players on the field they won't be easy for anyone to score on. Maybe starting the tournament will give the spark that turns into the brush-fire the Numenoreans will need, because right now they look like wet logs.

Rivendell- I'm going against the grain and saying Rivendell gets in instead of Numenor. Simply because of the defense, and the masterful goal-tending of Elrond. I would not be surprised if he doesn't concede a goal in any of these matches. What I noticed as a problem in the friendlies, is the defense played a little more open than usual. They are one of the best team-oriented defenses...great communicators and cover well for eachother, but they are not the best athletically. I do think Elrond will fix this, by tightening up his formation, which will limit the space, and metaphorically choke opposing offenses. The bigger question will be scoring. They don't have enough to go far in the tournament, but there is enough (with an impeccable defense) to get into the playoffs. The key player will be Arwen, who surprised everyone with impressive offensive numbers last year. What makes a player great though is being able to repeat, which she will have to do for Rivendell.

Utumno- A bit of a lackluster friendly, but Melkor didn't seem to interested or concerned about winning. He will be in the tournament, this is why he started up his own team in Utumno. We can safely assume Melkor will be one of the best MFers, as always, even with his lazy friendly workout. The balrog defense is just as physical as the Misty Mountains but they avoid the cards because they play wiser. They are masters of disguising dirty tackles, because they don't just go ramming into people with their shoulders. I expect Utumno to sweep the group, but they will not be easy wins by any means, which could be their ultimate demise in the tournament. Melkor's teams have a long history of starting out like an unstoppable category-5 hurricane but quickly diminish to a tropical storm by the time it reaches land.

Predicted Group Standings
1. Utumno
2. Rivendell
3. Numenor
4. Misty Mountains

GROUP F

Bywater- Shadowfax was a great addition to that defense, which greatly limitted opponents scoring opportunities. And if they keep getting more scoring chances than their opponents they're a nice upset pick. I can see them matching up well against Lorien and Valimar. The reason I have them being eliminated though is their shaky GK Cotton. Thangorodrim and Valimar have FWs who can not only blast the ball off their foot with authority, but put wicked movement on it when they have to. I don't see Cotton being good enough to stand up to those kind of shots, no matter how few chances he'll face because of a great defense.

Lorien- I must admit they've performed better than I expected in the friendlies, especially on the offensive side of the ball. Still, they're not going to get into a high scoring match with anyone. And defensively, while being good, I would not pick them as a Top-5 defense, they may not even be Top-10. Galadriel is a very good goal-tender, but she's slightly overrated, because you just don't think of her as a top-notch goalie. For instance, yes, I would take the more expensive Huan and Elrond in a heartbeat. But I would also take Tar Atanamir, Mandos, and Melian over Galadriel, and you can get them for the same cost.

Thangorodrim- Between Thangorodrim and Valimar you can pretty much flip them. However, while I think Valimar has a greater chance to win the group, I think Thangorodrim has an overall better chance of advancing. So, if they don't finish first, they'll likely wind up second, because they are that much better than Lorien and Bywater. Where Valimar, if they don't finish first, have a bigger chance to be upset by Bywater or Lorien simply because of their conservative style. Thangorodrim is the complete opposite, which does leave their defense vulnerable. However, it's hard for teams to exploit that vulnerability because their FWs and attacking-MFs always have the ball, and always push forward. For why I have them finishing 2nd though, see Valimar.

Valimar- We saw a different Manwe team than usual. You usually see a dreadfully conservative and terrible belief that they don't have to play, because if Eru wills it they will win, and if not they won't. However, we saw a different will in their match against Utumno, the will to win. They should have that same fire against Melkor's servants in Thangorodrim. The question is how do they play against Bywater and Lorien? We are hearing a different tune out of Valimar than usual though. Manwe said in Valimar's last press conference: "No. We still believe in the will of Eru. However, in the off-season we learned a valuable lesson from a brave and courageous hobbit. He had fate on his side, but did not sit comfortably and kick back at home, waiting for the Ring to levitate to Mordor and destroy itself. He acted and in doing so, made his own fortune. You have to, and if it is by Eru's fate we win, then we will."

Predicted Group Standings
1. Valimar
2. Thangorodrim
3. Bywater
4. Lorien

[Nogrod]

Due to a minor controversy and the strike of the AKM staff’s following thereafter we, the editorial board, have been left alone to make the stories – and you know how pathetic that can be. We decided to be frank with the matter.

It all began with Ugr Nogrendale’s paid visit to Minas Tirith to eat and drink with the Barrow-Downs team on the expense of the AKM – and the rumours that were sparked thereafter about free champagne running after the interview between him and the ‘Downers, the different paid luxuries not suitable to be detailed in any family-friendly site, travelling in the first class with unauthorised company criss-sross Minas Tirith etc…

As a result of these accusations of Gonzo journalism Hunter S. Thompson style, Mr. Nogrendale is banned form reporting for now. Sadly the other journalists are refusing to work unless they receive the same benefits he seem to have been enjoying. At this global economic situation the AKM has no other chance but to continue reporting the Arda Cup with editorial board’s efforts only. Whether it be good or bad will be up to you readers.

So soon to follow, there wil be the AKM editorial board’s look at the group-phase.

But first of all we need to deal with MESPN networks’ comments on teams doing their own stuff during the friendlies and thus the friendlies not being a reliable meter to value the teams. And our comment is that of an agreement: just think how Gondolin played two matches with a full swing and then fell down, how Barrow-Downs suddenly turned an excellent team after two initial half-hearted draws, how Tirion’s forwards seem to have been saving themselves, how about if the Breelander trio is just not concerned with friendlies? Et cetera…

But there is one statistic that normally doesn’t lie. And that is the goalie’s performance. It would take a lot of nerve and intentional fooling for the goalie to admit a goal when s/he had a chance to save it. So we will read the keeper-stats as they are. Otherwise we’re looking at the general performance and for the best explanations for the games to result the way they did.