T-I-G WW LXXIV: War of the Wolves

[Kitanna]

I went back to read all the posts AFTER Nogrod pegs Lommy as a wolf in the hopes maybe one of her packmates slipped up. I ignored posts by Shasta, Sally, Nerwen, and Morsul.

Wilwa: Believes him to be the seer, seeing that it makes sense for an innocent seer to reveal as he did rather than run the risk of being killed in the night. In a later post she defends Nogrod's reveal from Sally and Boro.

Legate: Placed Nogrod in his yellow area, but he also admitted he didn't have the time to recheck the thread before turning in for the night. He placed Lommy in his green section. At the end of his post he added an edit about having seen what Nogrod revealed.

Boro: Asks if a wolf seer would reveal so soon. Puts forth several possibilities to other avenues. (such as wolf seer trying to look good, non-wolf seer trying to benefit his pack, I'm guessing he means lead the village away from the real wolf seer.) In a later post explains why he didn't want to jump on board and trust Nogrod without considering other options.

Izzy: Seems to agree with Wilwa and trusts Nogrod. Feels Legate is buttering Nog up.

Zil: Trusts Nogrod it looks like, but finds it unusual that he revealed when he was in no danger.

Pitch: Believes Nogrod to be a seer because no one would be foolish enough to lead us to lynch an innocent.

TEW: Knows it's a seer claim, nothing else really said.

Conclusions:
Wilwa: At first I was wary because she so readily agreed with Nogrod. But as I read on in her posts after that initial one she made good points as to why an innocent Nogrod would reveal so soon. Her continued defense of his reveal speaks more innocent to me than wolfish.

Boro: I like that Boro considered other options as to Nogrod being a wolf revealing to look good. I'm inclined to trust for this because he continued to defend this position that he didn't want to enthusiastically jump into believing Nogrod without giving it some thought. The fact that Wilwa and Boro both felt strongly enough in one direction or the other that they kept defending their points rather than just agreeing and voting makes me think more innocent at this point.

Legate: Didn't have time to really react in full to the reveal, but his brief reaction was suspect to me. He immediately glomped onto Nogrod it looked like and had a sort of "oh darn I was wrong about you and Lommy" all along.

TEW, Zil, Pitch, and Izzy: All are hard to read not giving much away after Nogrod's reveal. For the most part all fall into "Nogrod is telling the truth because why would he lie so early?" category. Legate falls into this too, but his "you were right, I was wrong" edit in his vote post seemed forced.

Unfortunately I can't come home from work on my lunch break to vote. There hasn't been a whole lot of activity today either and I was in a time crunch so I could only focus on a small number of posts. But here's my vote.

++ Legate

Of all those that reacted after the reveal of Nogrod his seemed the most forced. It looked as though he was trying to pull himself closer to Nogrod and distant himself from Lommy. Possible packmates?

Best of luck for the rest of the day.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by wilwa #176

Our Unicorn, well if they stay alive cool, cause that's just like having an ord, if they die than we get another innocent, potentially with a gift like hunter or seer, depending on who's dead when the Unicorn dies.

wilwa, unless I completely misunderstand what you're talking about we've been through all this yesterDay. Revived innocents come back as ordos. If they were gifted before (as almost everybody in this crazy game seems to be), they'd of course remember their dreams and picks from their previous lives, but they'll no longer be gifted. At least that's how I read the Rules.
I'd assume a wolf would be concerned enough about the possibility of a Seer returning from the grave to get that straight, so this little bit of confusion makes me rather more inclined to believe you're innocent. Or is this just what you'd like us to think?

Originally Posted by Kit #180

Pitch: Believes Nogrod to be a seer because no one would be foolish enough to lead us to lynch an innocent.

Actually, that's two different things:
1. The part about the stupidity of getting an innocent lynched with a fake reveal was my reason for believing that Lommy was indeed a wolf; and if whosoever gives us a wolf, we lynch the wolf and worry about the Seer-claimant later.
2. My reason to believe that Nog is a Seer (and not a masquerading Hunter or something else) is simple psychology - as in, when I saw he claimed to have dreamed Lommy I immediately thought "Of course he would", it's just like him to pick her for his first dream.
That last post of mine was made in a bit of a hurry before going to bed, and I was quite tired by then, so maybe I didn't express myself that clearly.
Now the remaining question is whether Nog is the village Seer or the surviving wolf-Seer; only time will tell, I suppose, but as long as we don't know, let's follow wilwa's good advice from yesterDay: trust his wolf dreams, be wary about his innocent dreams. If his wolves conveniently happen to be all from the same pack, however, that might be reason to worry about his alignment.
Just to make myself completely understood: I honestly wish and hope Nog is our true Seer, I'm just not prepared to utterly rule out the other possibility, however unlikely it may seem.

Going to look a bit at Lommy's interactions now.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

wilwa, unless I completely misunderstand what you're talking about we've been through all this yesterDay. Revived innocents come back as ordos. If they were gifted before (as almost everybody in this crazy game seems to be), they'd of course remember their dreams and picks from their previous lives, but they'll no longer be gifted. At least that's how I read the Rules.
I'd assume a wolf would be concerned enough about the possibility of a Seer returning from the grave to get that straight, so this little bit of confusion makes me rather more inclined to believe you're innocent. Or is this just what you'd like us to think?

Ok, I think you may have misunderstood me, or the rules, unless I don't get the rules maybe. The way I see it let's say 3 innocents are dead: A was an Ordo, B was a Hunter, C was a Seer. The Unicorn then dies. Lottie puts the names of A, B, and C in a hat and picks one out, that is the person who comes back to life. Then to decide the role that person comes back with she puts all of the "dead" roles into a hat (so Ordo, Hunter, Seer) and then that's the role of the person who comes back.

So for example if the Unicorn was to die toDay either Sally, Nerwen or Shasta would come back, and their possible roles would be Ord (cause of Morsul) or Hunter, since you can't have a lone lover so that wouldn't be considered.

So yes, like Nog is Seer now, if he dies toNight and can't give us his dream, but then the Unicorn dies and let's say he comes back as the Hunter, he'll have a different role, but could still share that other dream with us. So the wolves would certainly be concerned for the Unicorn to die, since it could create more gifteds, and if their own Unicorn dies than that's even worse since they could lose a packmate and create another gifted all at the same time.

Or am I completely misinterpreting this role?

Originally Posted by Pitch

let's follow wilwa's good advice from yesterDay: trust his wolf dreams, be wary about his innocent dreams

I also said that not thinking that a seer would reveal Day 1. This would definitely have applied if the seer reveal had been later, but I seriously have a hard time believing an evil seer would reveal on the first Day. Especially since he had no risk of being lynched, and (if he was evil) would have a wolfRanger to protect him at Night. So I think because of that we can believe him.

Goodness, I really hope Nog shows up before I have to leave.

[Pitchwife]

wilwa, about the Unicorns - I believe I've already quoted the pertinent passage from the Admin thread, but once more:

Originally Posted by Lottie, Admin thread, first post as per last edit

If the WereUnicorn is killed, one of the dead players is returned to life. The dead player used to be innocent and will then be an ordo.
[...]
Unicorn. Same as the WereUnicorn, except on the innocents' side.

Bolding mine.
So yes, if Nog in your example is revived, he'll be able to give us the dream he had as a Seer, but he won't be a Hunter or otherwise gifted.
What we do get from a Unicorn's death is a revived known (un-gifted) innocent, which the wolves will want to avoid as long as possible; you're right about that part.

[wilwarin538]

Ok, then that was certainly my mistake, I think the way I discribed it was how it was originally planned, I must have missed the change there. Hopefully I don't confuse anyone with my last post then. But yeah, either way the wolves still want to avoid it.

So I have to leave like, now. I'm going to try super hard to get back on here before DL, but I really don't think I'll be able to, so I'm going to have to vote now.

So who's left:
Kit
Pitchie
Zil
Wilwa - will not vote for
Boro
Nog - will not vote for
The Elf-warrior
Izzy
Legate

Pitch, Legate and Inzil I feel good about (and one of them has to be guilty by math, I just don't know which). Boro, I forgot was playing. Izzy I think just made that one little comment at the start of the Day, which is odd. Kit I'm fairly ok with. Elfie, I have no idea.

So there are 7 people I could vote for. 5 are wolves. I really think we could all just vote random and probably still get a wolf.

gah, I really have to go.

++Izzy

Mostly random, I'll admit. But mathematically I have a 5 in 7 chance of being right, so I'm cool with those odds.

Yeah, I'm going to have to come back.

*hopes Nog dreamt me and wolves are logical*

x'ed with Nog, oh come on man, you're killing me here with the suspense...*leaves for real*

[Nogrod]

Okay. Finally here for a short while.

If you Wilwa need to go soon, just vote whom you think is the most suspicious. I'd rather not say anything on the dream as yet - and if you pick badly I can suggest the others to avoid that choice. Okay?

Hmm... some thoughts to follow. (I've just read the thread and have to pause for a thought first).

[Nogrod]

First of all: I do like happy faces around but sadly I need to bring my fellow innocents down a bit. There are ten people around toDay of which one innocent (Shasta) is able to vote but otherwise is practically dead already.

That leaves four innocents against five wolves (in teams of 2 and 3).

The next Night the wolves will kill me and because neither team can afford to count on the other team to do it, so they both come my way. So no innocent will be killed in the coming Night except me. *prays the ranger gambled last Night*

So how will toMorrow look like?

If we lynch an innocent toDay it will be:
2 innocents - facing 5 wolves
and
2 wolves (pack A) - facing 5 enemies
3 wolves (pack B) - facing 4 enemies

So you can see who has reason to be cheerful and who has not...

Well, if we lynch a wolf toDay it will be:
3 innocents - facing 4 wolves
and
1 wolf (A) - facing 6 enemies
3 wolves (B) - facing 4 enemies
or
2 wolves (A) - facing 5 enemies
2 wolves (B) - facing 5 enemies

That would be far better for us. So let's put some effort into this.

I need to go to sleep quite a lot earlier I did last night so I can't hang around up to the last hours of the Day - and I still need to read a bunch of essays today. So how about everyone able to be online within the next three hours or something came up with more or less a list of suspicions and possible trust? With reasons.

That's just a suggestion.

[Nogrod]

As it looks pretty quiet I think I'll do my essay-reading right now. I'll be back in about an hour and will then put myself into this for real for an hour or two.

Hoping to see people coming online meanwhile...

[Inziladun]

Not a lot of time at the moment, as it's the middle of my workday again. TEW interests me greatly. I've never played with him before and have no indication of his 'normal' style, but some bells are ringing.
Ah, who am I to let work get in the way of WW?

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

AAAGH! We're in big trouble, no mistake about it. OK, anybody wanna confess? Anybody? *shrugs*

Classic 'Oh, dear, evil wolves are after us', a furry staple.

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Well, it's pretty quiet here. I guess I'll do a recap.

Post #1 and #2 Modess narration.
Post #3 The Elf-warrior expresses panic. He asks if anybody wants to confess.
Post #4 Wilwarin538 writes a song for the pleasure of the modess. It is a parody of a Barenaked Ladies number called Another Postcard. She needs to go to bed and wake up the next morning to get a blood test. She might be able to post before then. She expresses doubts about her physical condition.
Post #5 Modess congratulates Wilwarin538 on her song parody. (She compliments The Elf-warrior in an edit.) She calls the two her minions.
Post #6 Shasta shows symptoms of multiple personality disorder.
Post #7 Izzy turns The Elf-warrior's question back on him. He compliments Wilwa on her song. He also jokes that channeling Nilp is lynch-worthy.
Post #8 The Elf-warrior proclaims his innocence. He parodies a song by Black Sabbath called War Pigs.
Post #9 Satansaloser jokingly expresses a desire to run away with Nilp.

Could be seen as nothing more than an effort to appear helpful.

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

No, Isabellkya. We need a better reason than a werewolf themed parody of a song about paper communications from chimpanzees.

That was in answer to this from Izzy:

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Should we lynch Wilwa now for professing her paper communications between herself and wolves? Or did I read that wrong?

which was fairly obviously a joke. An attempt to cast some early suspicion for future case building?

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

++ Lommy

It's a seer claim. Looks like a great shot at bagging a wolf to me.

A vote for Lommy, the 7th, then this:

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

In the interests of full disclosure, I'd like to say the last sentence of my last post was added a few minutes later.

Why the need for the disclaimer? Extra conscious of editing after the suspicion dropped on Nerwen, though he himself said Nerwen's slip was a 'sign of innocence' in her?

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

I'd like to correct something I said yesterDAY. I also played Werewolf with the late Sally in Werewolf XLVIII, Virtual Reality. Wilwa, that "I'm on no team thing," passed me by. After I read about her desire to run away with Nilp/Shasta, I suspected they were lovers, but that suspicion slipped from me in the hustle and bustle of other things. Also, I realized that the lovers aren't really evil. I wouldn't have thought that a lover would be so blatant about it. When I read that the two were lovers, I thought to myself that I should have known.

Something caught my eye in one of Lommy's posts, Could Lommy have dreamed of Izzy? On the other hand, she may be Lommy's packmate. Or I'm reading too much into this statement.

Looking back at the rules, I noticed that a wolf!seer is told the gifts of his or her dreamee. Maybe Lommy dreamed of Nerwen and told her pack. However, this doesn't explain why both packs ate her. Was Nerwen putting out hunter vibes I completely missed?

I'm not surprised neither pack went after Nogrod. I think one of the trains of wolf thinking going on was that if they left Nogrod alive, people would be more likely not to trust him. This wouldn't neutralize his potential wolf reveals, but it would make people less likely to trust his analysises and innocent reveals. Also, it is/was likely that the ranger protected Nogrod. In conclusion, I don't find Nogrod's continued survival very suspicious.

Isabellkya, I think Morsul asked to be killed because RL was too encroaching.

All this seems rather overblown with the explanation of why he didn't catch Sally's Lover hints. Why is that important to clarify? And the focus on Lommy's dream is counterproductive and time-wasting. The Seer!wolf's dream is simply a tool to help the wolves know whom to target. The subject of her dream would probably have been a target of hers for lynching, and maybe her packmates could latch on if possible. Unless there was some apparent concerted action between Lommy and some others, I don't see how we could connect her dream to her packmates. And the votes were altered because of Nog's reveal.
Also, there's quite a bit of rumination on why Nog wasn't targeted. Really, the likeliest reason is that the packs feared the Ranger, be it a Ranger!wolf or a the village Ranger. His theory has the feel of something that might have been previously discussed with someone else....

Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior

Kitanna, I think Lommy might have dreamed of Nerwen. Could Lommy have learned that Nerwen was the hunter? Not a certainty by any means, (after all, Nerwen expected such a reaction from Lommy anyway) but I think its a possibility.

More about Lommy's dream. It just looks like trying too hard to look useful.

Really must go for now. But TEW is worrying.

[Pitchwife]

Bah, I skimmed through Lommy's posts again, but with the way she was flip-flopping or being just vague about most people all the time, if there are any ties to her packmates in there I can't see them.

I feel good about Izzy, however, exactly because Lommy was so positive about her (neglecting the unsolvable question who her dream was). I don't think Lommy would have associated herself so clearly with a packmate or a rival wolf, but I can see her buddying up to an innocent, maybe with an intention to leave Izzy tainted later in case she'd survive Lommy. Plus I've seen nothing suspicious in Izzy herself.

I'm trusting Nog to be the true Seer until proven otherwise. There is, to repeat myself, still a possibility he's a wolf-Seer pulling a daring act (and I don't think this would be quite as implausible as the majority seems to believe), but what's most important, I've seen nothing in his pre-reveal behaviour that would make me suspect him.

I don't really know what to think of wilwa. She said some clever things in the discussion about Seer reveals yesterDay, and her reaction to Nog's reveal looked good, but otherwise she's either genuinely confused or acting confused and trying to confuse us, I don't know which.

Kit still looks good to me, I like the way she thinks and looks at things. The reason for her vote (Legate's edit-reaction to Nog's reveal) was a bit meager the way she presented it (meaning that the fact he made that edit in haste may have been in part responsible for it looking 'forced'), but I agree with her that Legate seemed to be in a big hurry to accept Nog's claim.

Now, Legate himself. I said yesterDay he and Lommy seemed to be agreeing quite a lot; looking back, it seems the only thing they explicitely agreed about was Lommy's remark that in this game, people who go after wolves aren't necessarily innocent (on which I commented at the time). The other thing I noticed (and of course I would) was the way they sort of played ping-pong with suspecting me for diverging reasons, none of them very clear. (In contrast, our late sally - to put this in a family-friendly way - quite annoyed me with the way she went after me, but she at least presented something remotely resembling a case.) Looking at what they said about each other, Legate was quite unwavering in finding Lommy not suspicious at all, whereas Lommy found him 'wishy-washy', 'fishy' or generally feeling offish; in my eyes, this is just the kind of passing suspicion a wolf would post about a packmate - enough to distance herself from him just in case, not enough to make anybody else suspect him seriously. So if you want to know whom I don't trust, here's one. Not any more.

Posting this now, and then looking at the rest.

EDIT: x-ed with Zil.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, I'm back and I must say I have expected far more posting here, but well, the village is not exceptionally big anymore all of a sudden.

Also, I wonder if it might have something to do with the amount of Wolves...

Anyway... a few brief reactions... then I will probably post some summing post when I try to clarify my views on people. By the way, Nog, I hope you are going to post your dream sooner rather than later (with your infamous staying up till five ), as some people in your timezone would like to know it before they go to sleep - especially toDay as it's crucial for innocents not to vote innocents...

Originally Posted by Inziladun

It's possible that, with Nog being guarded as they might think, they just saw her as a logical second choice. It is a rather remarkable coincidence that they both picked her though.

Well, but why a "logical" second choice? What's so logical about it? Or do you know something I do not??

Originally Posted by Kitanna

Legate: Didn't have time to really react in full to the reveal, but his brief reaction was suspect to me. He immediately glomped onto Nogrod it looked like and had a sort of "oh darn I was wrong about you and Lommy" all along.

(...)

Of all those that reacted after the reveal of Nogrod his seemed the most forced. It looked as though he was trying to pull himself closer to Nogrod and distant himself from Lommy. Possible packmates?

Okay, I am not sure if I understand what you are trying to say, but it does not make sense to me. I have not reacted to Nogrod at all yesterDay, I have only cross-posted with him and I was about to go to sleep, and my exclamation there was reaction to the fact that somebody has made a Seer-reveal at the moment when I was just leaving the thread for good (I had about five and half an hour before I was supposed to wake up the next day at that time, so I did not want to stay up and start reading Nogrod's posts and thinking whether he is a Seer or not. I decided to just go to sleep and leave it be).

EDIT: X-ed with PW and once again, the same thing as above - I don't see when I have yesterDay accepted Nogrod. I had no time to accept him or not, I have been sleeping...

[The Elf-warrior]

Originally Posted by Inzy

Quote:
Originally Posted by The Elf-warrior
AAAGH! We're in big trouble, no mistake about it. OK, anybody wanna confess? Anybody? *shrugs*

Classic 'Oh, dear, evil wolves are after us', a furry staple.

You have a point in that that would appear suspicious. Well, the appearance of suspicious doesn't always mean one is lupine. Erm, trust me?

Inzy comments about my recap:

Could be seen as nothing more than an effort to appear helpful.

Wouldn't an innocent also try to appear to be helpful? Frankly, there wasn't much to go on.

In regards to my response to Izzy, well, I didn't realize it was just a joke.

About my edit statement, yes I was self-conscious about editing after I basically accused Nerwen of improper editing. I didn't want to be a hypocrite.

I obsessed over Sally's lover hints because I it was something to talk about.

And the focus on Lommy's dream is counterproductive and time-wasting.

Point taken.

Really, the likeliest reason is that the packs feared the Ranger, be it a Ranger!wolf or a the village Ranger. His theory has the feel of something that might have been previously discussed with someone else....

How about inside The Elf-warrior's own head?

It just looks like trying too hard to look useful.

I tried to be useful.
I guess I failed.
Whoa! Another seer revelation.

++Legate

[satansaloser2005]

I've got something for you....

^_^

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I've got something for you....

^_^

The voices of Charlie's 'friends' are highly disturbing.

[Boromir88]

Dull, yes, but a hell of a lot easier on me. I'll do better tomorrow....hopefully

++Legate

[satansaloser2005]

You know, you are making some pretty major mistakes, people.

*rolls eyes*