WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I think I see where you're going with this. The hunter has two shots at a wolf, since there are two alive. If we sacrifice the hunter and take those two shots, plus lynch someone not on the hunter's list, that's three shots at two wolves today.

Am I right?

Yes and no. We could clear innocents and maybe kill a wolf at the same time.


Three scenarios:

Ordo reveals as hunter. We lynch them because they're silly (this is NOT the Day to go for that rash of a plan, not when this can be so perfectly orchestrated) and we get nothing.

Wolf reveals as hunter. We lynch them and we have a wolf.

Hunter reveals as hunter. They tell us their list and we lynch them accordingly, then we'll know either a wolf or an innocent (although keep in mind we could lose an ordo this way along with the hunter) and we'll be in a lot better shape (though granted down a hunter as well).

Of course we'll also learn a lot about people's leanings based on this plan and their adherence to it. We can't lose. Now we just need our hunter to come out. You know who you are, we do not. Do as you see fit; if there is no reveal toDay I say we agree as much as possible on our top two lynch candidates, lynch (rather sacrifice) one, then use that information to see what to do with the other.


Thoughts?

[Nogrod]

Hmm... I'm a bit confused over the speculation as I can't see the sense there... Let's make a quick eyeing on the rules first...

Originally Posted by the rules

1 Hunter – she stands with the innocents, and at any point of the game, she can choose people whom she is going to watch and take with her in case she dies. That effectively means that the Hunter will send me a list of three or less names (maximally up to the number of living Werewolves in game), and if she is killed during the Night and there is a Werewolf on the list, the Werewolf who is first on the list will die alongside her; otherwise, nothing happens. If the Hunter is lynched and there is a Werewolf on the list, the Werewolf who is the first on the list will die alongside her; otherwise, the first person who is on the list will die alongside her.

Now obviously we wouldn't lynch the hunter if s/he revealed during the Day as there is the possibility of an innocent going down. It would ease our choice though for who to lynch: one less to choose from. The downside would be that the wolves would not kill her/him either so we'd face the "believability problem" once again.

With a rivalling call we'd need to be careful as lynching the wrong one would once again make the possibility of an extra innocent dying possible.

Although to be honest, if a hunter doesn't get it right having three chances out of six possibilities, then it's a bit bad hunting...

But anyway, it's for the hunter (and ranger - they can talk, wasn't it so?) to decide.

EDIT: X'd with Sally... and needs to rethink the scenario she gives...

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Hmm... I'm a bit confused over the speculation as I can't see the sense there... Let's make a quick eyeing on the rules first...


Now obviously we wouldn't lynch the hunter if s/he revealed during the Day as there is the possibility of an innocent going down. It would ease our choice though for who to lynch: one less to choose from. The downside would be that the wolves would not kill her/him either so we'd face the "believability problem" once again.

With a rivalling call we'd need to be careful as lynching the wrong one would once again make the possibility of an extra innocent dying possible.

Although to be honest, if a hunter doesn't get it right having three chances out of six possibilities, then it's a bit ad hunting...

But anyway, it's for the hunter (and ranger - they can talk, wasn't it so?) to decide.

Good point (the underlining) but make sure to take my view into consideration.

Not to be rude, but a living hunter is a useless hunter. Whether or not they have their picks right we'll learn something. In fact we can advise them on how to pick if we want, though of course it is their choice in the end. I'd at least be willing to give it a shot, assuming they do indeed decide to come out. It'd teach us a lot about the alignment of people, based on how they reacted to lynching the hunter once they discovered their list, etc. The only way to find out is to try?


EDIT: Didn't realize Nogrod had x'd with me, so I'll let him think it over before I respond further.

[Nogrod]

Just a minute!

So what you Sally are saying is that the hunter might come forwards and say "heres my three suspects: A, B and C. Now lynch me"?

Let me speculate first with just one lynch to make it easier to count...

So we lynch the hunter and if s/he has a wolf there s/he takes the wolf down and only one wolf is left. Great job!

But if s/he hasn't a wolf on the list, s/he will take one innocent with her/him from the list, but we will know then the two others are innocents. Now the ranger can save the one the wolves would try to kill or not, that would be 50-50. But also we would know that two out of four (those not on her/his list) would be the wolves.

Needs to think more... with the help of a lung-destroyer...

EDit: X'd with all the last speculations...

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Just a minute!

So what you Sally are saying is that the hunter might come forwards and say "heres my three suspects: A, B and C. Now lynch me"?

Let me speculate first with just one lynch to make it easier to count...

So we lynch the hunter and if s/he has a wolf there s/he takes the wolf down and only one wolf is left. Great job!

But if s/he hasn't a wolf on the list, s/he will take one innocent with her/him from the list, but we will know then the two others are innocents. Now the ranger can save the one the wolves would try to kill or not, that would be 50-50. But also we would know that two out of four (those not on her/his list) would be the wolves.

Needs to think more... with the help of a lung-destroyer...

EDit: X'd with all the last speculations...

The hunter only gets two picks, dear, as there are two wolves. Unless you know something I don't.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Just a minute!

So what you Sally are saying is that the hunter might come forwards and say "heres my three suspects: A, B and C. Now lynch me"?

Let me speculate first with just one lynch to make it easier to count...

So we lynch the hunter and if s/he has a wolf there s/he takes the wolf down and only one wolf is left. Great job!

But if s/he hasn't a wolf on the list, s/he will take one innocent with her/him from the list, but we will know then the two others are innocents. Now the ranger can save the one the wolves would try to kill or not, that would be 50-50. But also we would know that two out of four (those not on her/his list) would be the wolves.

Needs to think more... with the help of a lung-destroyer...

EDit: X'd with all the last speculations...

No, Nog, the hunter only has a list of two. There are only two wolves alive.

Edit: X'ed with Sally.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Which, if we'd remembered this yesterday, would mean Lottie would still be alive.

[Nogrod]

You're right Sally & Shasta... The rules say the maximum number of wolves alive.

Originally Posted by Shasta

Which, if we'd remembered this yesterday, would mean Lottie would still be alive.

If we'd come up with this plan... or "remembered" what? Sorry I didn't quite get it.

Anyway. I will be recounting the scenarios...

[satansaloser2005]

Sorry, but I have to go. I've loaded up all the pages and will look things over while I'm away tonight but will have no internet (or at least I don't think I will) for eight hours or so. I'll see you all when I get back. Don't do anything stupid.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

You're right Sally & Shasta... The rules say the maximum number of wolves alive.

If we'd come up with this plan... or "remembered" what? Sorry I didn't quite get it.

Anyway. I will be recounting the scenarios...

If we'd remembered that the Hunter's list consisted of the number of wolves alive, they could have revealed to save Lottie. Remember, your theory rested on the fact that Lottie was a wolf, meaning there would have been three wolves alive. The Hunter could simply have said how many people they were allowed to put on their list at the time to know whether your theory was valid or not.

[Nogrod]

So we are 8 players alive (and with just one lynch considered to make it easier).

4 ordos (who don't know each other or anyone)
2 gifteds (who know each other)
2 wolves (who know each other)

The hunter comes forwards and gives us a list of two, A and B.

We lynch the hunter...

Then hunter dies and takes someone with her (I'll use the feminine here so that I don't have to make that "her/him" stuff everytime I refer to the hunter). As she knows the ranger she has a go for 2 from 6 aka. 1/3 chance of getting it right.

If she gets it right with either of her suspects we will be on 5 against 1 facing the Night with one known innocent the ranger can protect. So on the next Day we'll have 4 against 1 with one known innocent in our middle - so every innocent would have a 50% chance (one of two) to vote for the wolf. Very good!

If she doesn't get it right, she will take one innocent with her and we'll face the Night with 4 against 2. The ranger would save the known innocent so we would arise to a new Day with 3 against 2 with one known innocent. Leaving the innocents with 2 from 3 to vote (as they know themselves to be innocents)! Good, good!

That of course if the ranger is up to her/his tasks - which I hope we can count on.

It looks too good to be true.

If I'm not wrong with this. Please check my calculations (I'll double check them myself as well).

But it also it should be thought what would happen if we did not lynch the revealed hunter but just narrowed our scope of voting toDay - although I think the wolves would be suicidal trying to kill the hunter during the Night.

Or what should we do in case of a counter reveal? Do we have time to check one out with 50-50 chances? I mean if that contest is too tight, should a reasonable hunter stay hidden after all?

Goes to count again...

Originally Posted by Shasta

Remember, your theory rested on the fact that Lottie was a wolf, meaning there would have been three wolves alive. The Hunter could simply have said how many people they were allowed to put on their list at the time to know whether your theory was valid or not.

Appreciates being corrected... I see it now.

[Nogrod]

Okay, the first amendment already.

If the hunter gets her suspect A right, we can't know if her suspect B is a wolf or not, so no known innocent there. In case the hunter picks both wrong we have a known innocent on the next Day.