WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Boro

I don't get this either. I think Lommy is assuming a scenario where there are 5 players left, 2 wolves, 2 gifteds, and one ordo. In that scenario it wouldn't be good for the gifteds to reveal, because the 2 wolves could counter leaving the ordo to choose. If the ordo lynches wrong, it's over the wolves win.

I think Lommy's saying with these numbers it would be good for the Ranger and Hunter to reveal before reaching that point, where the ordo is stuck in a do-or-die situation. The problems are...

That's what I meant.

Originally Posted by Boro

Lommy, what's the reason in your change for wilwa? 2 days ago you said you thought her vote looked too clumsy for a wilwa-wolf.

Which vote? Honestly, I can't remember why I changed my mind eventually, but I know why I suspect her. In short, her vote record is bad, her interactions with Mnemo and Pitch look fishy (see my long analysis post yesterDay) and I get a dishonest feel from at least half of her posts.

edit: fixed quote, xed with Shasta

[Thinlómien]

So toDay is going to be a lynch battle between me and Wilwa?

I don't like that.

I don't like that because there really seem to be sort of "camps" on this issue. I don't like it because I can't see why I seem so suspicious to people. I don't like it because I don't want to be lynched.

And I don't like it because I'm developing a theory (need to check it out) which would mean Wilwa is not guilty (I know that it's slightly contradictory because she's my top suspect, but this other theory would mean some other people would be guilty and I wrong about Wilwa).

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

So toDay is going to be a lynch battle between me and Wilwa?

I don't like that.

I don't like that because there really seem to be sort of "camps" on this issue. I don't like it because I can't see why I seem so suspicious to people. I don't like it because I don't want to be lynched.

And I don't like it because I'm developing a theory (need to check it out) which would mean Wilwa is not guilty (I know that it's slightly contradictory because she's my top suspect, but this other theory would mean some other people would be guilty and I wrong about Wilwa).

If it helps, I'd lynch both of you if we could. Does that make it better?




The recent discussion seems weird to me. I'm not sure if it's just me, but it seems like a lot of talk for the sake of talk. All this "Well, I've changed my mind but not really and I'm still not sure" and the continued coverage of Lottie worries me.

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I'm not really seeing what's so suspicious about Lommy, to be perfectly honest. Boro looks better from what he's said today, but his actions in the past still worry me a bit, and Mac is still probably my second-top-suspect due to his interactions with Pitch.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I don't know why you take it so personally - I said the same logic could be applied against several people, myself included.

There, no need to be so touchy about it. If it comforts you, I suspect Nogrod of all the "veteran loudmouths" by far the most and that would exonerate you and Mac according to this theory...

Afterwards will be a better time to explain, but I'll sum up. It's a combination of feeling bad because I get a pass the first couple days that others do not receive (maybe I shouldn't be open about this, but it has something I've said in private conversation). As a wolf, I love taking full advantage of it, but as an innocent it makes me feel pretty rotten. And the other part about being suspected simply for the fact that I haven't been killed yet. Now, I grant you weren't saying, I must be a wolf now, but if that's all your only reason to suspect me...fine...but that still doesn't mean I'm going to like it.

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Which vote? Honestly, I can't remember why I changed my mind eventually, but I know why I suspect her. In short, her vote record is bad, her interactions with Mnemo and Pitch look fishy (see my long analysis post yesterDay) and I get a dishonest feel from at least half of her posts.

Her vote for me:

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

And I don't like it because I'm developing a theory (need to check it out) which would mean Wilwa is not guilty (I know that it's slightly contradictory because she's my top suspect, but this other theory would mean some other people would be guilty and I wrong about Wilwa).

The only way you know your theory is correct though is to know wilwa's role. Trying to figure out your theory now will just drive you insane and confuse you.

This is what I was trying to say towards the end on the day Nienna was lynched and people were popping out vaguely suspecting Eomer. Instead of following where the evidence leads (granted we all have to make assumptions about the evidence too, but at least that is based off of "known" info...such as deaths and roles) people have a tendancy to want to drive themselves crazy trying to figure out whether someone (like me) is fooling them, instead of going for the simple route.

The simple route is not always correct (as evidenced with Nienna being innocent), but it is the wisest and overall safer route. Since I've formed such strong opinions on wilwa, knowing her role will reveal a lot to me. I can say the same about Mac or Nerwen, who I have a pretty strong feeling they're innocent, but still wonder if they're fooling me. I can come to more solid conclusions by finding out their role for sure too. To ask a rhetorical question though, do I lynch the person, who will help me figure things out more and who I think is a wolf, or the one who I think is innocent?

If wilwa's a wolf, than everyone piling on her today makes sense as it looks to be an innocently driven bandwagon. If not, then there's still 2 wolves and it has definite wolf inolvement.

Also, it may look "too easy" but it is safer than saying you suddenly don't like voting for wilwa, because you have a theory of being fooled by the veterans (or someone else)...yet you can't possibly know how accurate that theory is until you know for sure about wilwa.

++wilwa

I'm willing to stand by that vote and bet she's a wolf. If not, than I'll accept the consequences. I'm just asking you trust the info, and me, above crap-shoot shot in the dark misgivings about being fooled.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Her vote for me:

By that I forgot to clearly point out your post about it (#539):

Originally Posted by Lommy

Wilwa - I confess I haven't paid her much attention myself, but others have brought up good points against her. If she's guilty, she's quite a good actress but could probably learn a bit more about plotting (the Boro-vote thingy would've been pretty clumsy from a wolf.)

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

The fact is, you admitted Mnemo looked bad, but still defended her and then tied the vote between me and her.

Actually I believe all I did was admit that she was acting differently then she had been the day before, but I don't think I said she looked bad, at the time I didn't think she did. And again, no matter who I voted for it would have tied them with Mnemo, and I wasn't going to vote for her when I didn't think she was guilty (cause that's just a bad idea) so really no matter what I would have done it would have made me look bad. I just want you to understand it from where I'm sitting, because of the timing of my vote no matter what way I'd have gone it could have been seen as a bad vote.

And I know how good this whole thing makes Lottie look, and she probably is innocent, but I'm just paranoid. Since it's a secret role a wolf could easily make something up that sounds believable. I have no intention of voting for her or anything, I just don't want her to slip under our radar if there's even the slightest chance she's playing us. That's all I'm saying. Just trying to cover all the bases.

x'ed with Boro x 2, and so it begins...

[Nerwen]

Okay... I'm going to have to vote pretty soon.

I think we really do need to lynch one of the "evil" Day 3 voters; at least we'll get some information that way– at present the whole thing is just a conundrum.

The trouble is that the situation on Day 3, when we lynched Nienna, still pertains– that is, there's a number of more-or-less equally guilty-looking people, some of whom are not wolves, and depending on how things go, the real wolves may be able to nudge the lynch the way they want pretty easily.

Oh well. Can't be helped.

EDIT:X'd with two Boros and Wilwa.

[Nerwen]

Well, of the people I've been thinking about, Shasta and Lommy are looking less guilty, Sally and Wilwa more so.

I mean, sorry to keep harping on the "Lynch Lottie" business, but come on... the argument basically comes down to– "unless we lynch her by a certain, agreed-upon interval, she'll become a mighty unlynchable super-being, for... some reason..." As I can't see that this line of thought is helpful to anyone but the wolves, the people pushing it aren't looking good to me. (This applies to Nogrod, too, though I don't see enough reason to vote him now.)

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

"unless we lynch her by a certain, agreed-upon interval, she'll become a mighty unlynchable super-being, for... some reason..."

I just died laughing.

Shasta - died of mirth, mid-Day 5

Edit: X'ed with Boro.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Okay... I'm going to have to vote pretty soon.

I think we really do need to lynch one of the "evil" Day 3 voters; at least we'll get some information that way– at present the whole thing is just a conundrum.

The trouble is that the situation on Day 3, when we lynched Nienna, still pertains– that is, there's a number of more-or-less equally guilty-looking people, some of whom are not wolves, and depending on how things go, the real wolves may be able to nudge the lynch the way they want pretty easily.

Oh well. Can't be helped.

It is a mighty conundrum, but how many times do wolves get close to the noose one day only to be dropped from suspicion for some reason the next? I would rather know for sure about one of those "evil" Day 3 voters, than just drop suspicion on them out of paranoia that it looks too easy. And consider the benefits of being correct (another wolf down) and the cost of being wrong.

If we are wrong, at least we made a logical and wise lynch based on sound reasons which have less of a chance of turning out to be a crippling lynch than deciding we drop the suspicion on them and go for conspiracy theories about someone double or triple bluffing.

Now, I have looked at all the wolf kills, and I don't have the time to specifically point out their posts, but I'll summarize what I've written down.

Inzil's strongest suspect for two days, I would say was Mac. He suspected Mac for Mac's quick jump on the Boro-versy (good word Inzil ). On Day 2 he backed away Mac, but this looked like a forced decision from Inzil to try to consider other people. Which he wound up primarily suspecting Mnemo and Lottie...said Nog was a puzzle, he had some misgivings about me, and voted for Lottie.

Greenie on Day 1 was most wary of Mnemo, Morsul and Nog. Wound up voting for Mnemo.
Day 2 she thought Boro, Mac, Brinn, and Lommy were good. Still wary of Mnemo, found Pitch too agreeable and Nog was back to normal, but she was still unsure.
Day 3 is an interesting one, because she is now most wary of Eomer, Pitch, and sally. Unsure of Brinn, Nienna, and Nog.

I say interesting because she was pretty much after Mnemo from the start, and then on Day 3 Pitch moved from unsure, to being wary. Greenie was killed before Lotties revealed...is it safe to assume they thought Greenie had a special-seer role, with her suspicion against 2 now known wolves? I think we can say by killing her when she moved Pitch to the "wary" category they didn't think she was the hunter.

Eomer I haven't looked at as in depth as Inzil and Pitch. But what does stand out is his stance, that he didn't think there was wolf-on-wolf amongst the Mnemo voters, and concentrated on those who tried to save her. By his saying the next day that he was happy with the Nienna lynch (even though it turned out she was innocent), maybe the wolves thought Eomer would continue to focus on those who supported Mnemo.

Now, off the top of my head Brinn and I both raised our disagreements with Eomer, but that was because we gave more credence to the wolf-on-wolf voting than Eomer was considering (at the time). As it turns out at least one wolf did vote for Mnemo, there is a possibility of another. However, it is interesting that Eomer is the one who winds up killed, there is several "expressed shocks" about it, and also to recall one of Lommy's points from Day 2. Mnemo had just as many defenders as she did attackers.