WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Macalaure]

YesterDay's voting

Morsul -> Morsul (...)
Lottie -> Bes
Nerwen -> Nienna (as I said yesterDay, considering that she had little time, this vote looks ok)
Wilwa -> Nienna(2) (she was under suspicion a lot yesterDay, so a vote that perfectly fits an attempt to save herself isn't surprising, but at this early point, it's extremely suspicious)
Eomer -> Sally (sounds perfectly reasonable, but I agree with the people who find him eerie)
Bes -> Lottie (with his explanations toDay, this vote looks ok)
Boro -> Wilwa (I really can't imagine a guilty Boro anymore. If you're a wolf, hats off)
Pitch -> Sally(2) (considering the considerable suspicion against her, this would have been a daring wolf-on-wolf. He even makes points against Nienna in his voting post, so going save and voting her would have been easy. Sally looks better)
Me -> Wilwa(2)
Green -> Sally(3) (has Greenie been killed in part to set up Sally?)
Sally -> Wilwa(3) (I might be a bit biased about people who vote Wilwa, but especially considering that Sally voted to save her life, I see no fault with this one)
Lommy -> Nienna(3) (unsure about this one, very unsure. The problem is that all three were under suspicion from quite early on, so it's easy for a wolf to be consistent. I see no obvious malintent, but Lommy is eerie as well)
Nogrod -> Nienna(4) (one of the worst votes yesterDay, but for the same reason as with Lommy, it's difficult to judge)
Nienna -> Wilwa(4)
Brinn -> Sally(4) (did she cross with Nienna's vote? Their votes came during the same minute, but Brinn didn't say anything, and a simple vote can be typed in seconds. If it's not crossed, then why on earth did she vote for Sally? If she was so opposed to have Nienna die, voting Wilwa was the only logical possibility, even if she might have suspected Sally more)
Shasta -> Nienna(5) (to his defense, he said he was going to, and Nienna was already leading (first to reach 4), so this wasn't a crucial vote. Nevertheless, a very bad one here)

Look better: Sally
Look worse: Shasta, Nogrod, Brinn, Lommy (If I have the time, I will give these fellas a closer look toDay)

If Pitch is wolf 2 and Wilwa is wolf 3, I'll be damned if wolf 4 is not among those four.

Originally Posted by Pitch

Thank you, but use a spoon, not a fork. It's more fun that way.

Will do.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Look better: Sally
Look worse: Shasta, Nogrod, Brinn, Lommy (If I have the time, I will give these fellas a closer look toDay)

If Pitch is wolf 2 and Wilwa is wolf 3, I'll be damned if wolf 4 is not among those four.


Will do.

Mnemo, Pitchie, Wilwa, and Lommy. I'd bet that's our pack.

[satansaloser2005]

Sorry about disappearing; my internet died.

Anyway, I'm very confused. Every time I think I've pinned down the pack(tm) I see someone else who looks suspicious to me. Gah!

My list at the moment. Sorry if it's not very well-defined.

Guilty
Pitch

Very suspicious
Wilwa
Shasta

Suspicious
Lommie (bordering on the very suspicious, but I kept my above list to two people....she's interchangable with the other two but that's how I'm feeling now)
Brinn (also very close to the above list, but not enough to be at the top)
Bes (but I'm willing to accept that it's just because he's new)

A bit suspicious
Boro (because of how he flipped on me so hard....other than that just hunching)
Morsul (Meh....I'm not comfortable with his Nilp move....could have been to make sure we wouldn't kill him, but I don't know)

Could go either way (meaning I need to look at them because I can't decide)
Nerwen
Eomer
Nog
Mac

Innocent
Lottie
Sally


I think a big problem with this list is that I had to keep looking at it in order to make sure I had everyone. Which means I'm ignoring people. I hate that.

[satansaloser2005]

Oh, and I'd make a list which allows for Lottie being a liar (who isn't bussing her packmate Pitch for whatever reason) but I'm just too lazy/busy to bother. Hopefully it won't be the case anyway, because I want to save my energy for better stuff I've to do. I'll be back in a few minutes.

[Nogrod]

Hey Mac, you say I'm suspicious because of being consistent without no obvious malintent. Let me ask you what would you have said if I had been inconsistent with an obvious malintent?

What this tells me is that you have first decided that you would like to walk me to the gallows and then come up with reasons afterwards. Sad. So sad.

And Brinn, you asked me something yesterDay... I had to go back and look as the last half an hour I only had sporadic access to reading as we were sharing the computer.

Well you can look at my posts #489 and #541 to begin with. I'll just copy a part of #541 here...

Originally Posted by me

You go deep and far and make it laborious to defend Nienna; looking at the reservations you seem to carefully put in every other place as if to not openly or actually defend her...

You "don't care to see her lynched toDay", but still you make awful lot about it trying to sway us from lynching her...

Talking about Nienna - Mac made the point I was wondering earlier on her reaction earlier toDay

To me that looks like a desperate try to sway the people from looking otherwise. I mean really, from the three Lottie-voters left she's ready to bet there are "at least" two wolves there? Hasty or evil?

So Mac also: it was not only consistent but also piling up during the Day. Sadly it was wrong as well.


Okay. I try to stay up long enough to make a summary of what I saw in relation to Pitch going through the thread.

[satansaloser2005]

Nog, go to bed!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Hey Mac, you say I'm suspicious because of being consistent without no obvious malintent.

The placement of your vote is still very bad. Since you are not stupid, you know that. You still joke about this obvious, valid point, which only makes you more suspicious in my eyes.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So Mac also: it was not only consistent but also piling up during the Day.

As I said before, that proves nothing in either way.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

The placement of your vote is still very bad.
...
You still joke about this obvious, valid point, which only makes you more suspicious in my eyes.

Having two other players + the mod in my place around the DL after first preparing food for the people and then socialising the last hours with them by dinner eg. not seeing the thread in something like four hours or so (and with one working computer and another with a cranky internet connection for the last hour) kind of gives me not too many options to strategically look after the placement of my vote to look especially good in your eyes (like I would consider that in the first place if I was at home with all peace and the PC to myself)... or to think about it too much as there was little chance to read all the stuff that happened during the last hours / minutes.

I thought we made our situation clear yesterDay.

As I said before, that proves nothing in either way.

Agreed. But that's kind of a lousy counter-argument / rhetorical trick, as it's hard to see how anything one says can be "proven" in a WW-game (things confirmed with death notwithstanding)...

What are you up to man?

[Nerwen]

Well. I'll not deny I'm very surprised by this latest turn of events– but with hindsight, Pitch being a wolf does make sense– it would explain why Mnemo made such a weird and implausible case against him.

By the way, do you realise he started the "Mr Agreeable" thing? He said something on Day One about how "wolves often try to seem agreeable"... just as Mnemo insisted that in anyone else her own behaviour would scream "YAY I'M A WOLF!"

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

Yeah, I thought of it after I'd voted as well. Of course we could still pull it off if we coordinate our efforts but there is the question of whether we can trust you.

Now if we'd known there was a seer you'd be trusted and protected yadda yadda and the plan would work perfectly but unfortunately in this situation, not so much.

I don't think this plan is worth the risk, Sally. We'd indeed have to trust Lottie 100 per cent– and if she is a wolf after all, we could well be down several innocents before we get around to lynching her.

EDIT:X'd with multiple Nogs since last reading.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I don't think this plan is worth the risk, Sally. We'd indeed have to trust Lottie 100 per cent– and if she is a wolf after all, we could well be down several innocents before we get around to lynching her.

Fair enough, which is why I just explained the plan and wasn't like "Guyz, we ttly gotta do dis nao! Kthnxbye!" (Sorry, I completely couldn't resist.)


Anyway back now. Gonna snag a bit of late dinner and then I'll look things over again.

[Nogrod]

Okay, I have never tried this kind of analysis before... let's see if it helps anyone but me.

So a + means the one thinks Pitchie more good than evil, a 0 means something like neutrality, and a - means the one thinks him more suspisious than not.

I have not taken known innocents abroad but Greenie seemed to suspect Pitchie quite (to the end) a lot and Inzil was more or less wavering. I have included Mnemo though just to show the perspective.

And the mentionings are in the order they appeared on that Day...

Day1

Mac: + (gives an innocent feel)
Mac: - (might be suspicious)
Lommy: 0 (inclined to like him but is he too agreeable?)
Morsul: + (feels innocent)
Nog: - (three people: considerate and reasonable, thus dangerous)
Boro: - (four people: expecting more from but far from seeing it)
Mnemo: - (Pitch & Inzil; feel a bit off, maybe a vote, wants to hear more)
Mac: - (too quick with declaration of innocence; not sure anymore) sure?
Mnemo: - (Pitch & Inzil; giving her the closest thing to a wolvish vibe)
Eomer: - (will probably vote for someone out of seven candidates; no reason given for Pitch being there)
Mac: + (would like to avoid voting him alongside five others - while not voting eight others)
Mac: + (he looked first innocent, then less and yet more innocent again)
Nog: - (Pitch & Inzil; looks helpful rather than is, careful indeed)

Day2

Mac: - (bandwagoning on him on D1, throws stuff but claims it a vibe-thing)
Mnemo: 0 (Pitch & Inzil: wants to make a deeper look at them)
Nog: - (agree with Mac it looks bandwagonish… seems very careful not to rub anyone the wrong way. Some very odd posts)
Lottie: - (looks suspicious, but doesn't have anything solid yet)
Nog: -(puts a lot of effort to look like he's discussing people but ending up round and about with everyone, restating earlier points - as it is a list post)
Mac: (says earlier two times and here as well that he will look at Pitch closer...)
Bes: - (after Macanalysis ending up willing to vote him he says he might have considered me or Pitchie as well)
Mnemo: - (makes a damning analysis: silly jumpiness & posting in chunks)
Lommy: - (leaning guilty list: he's one of the five, no explanation given)
Mac: 0 (needs to "verify his own suspicion" but doesn't like the way people suspect him)
Lommy: - (comments on votes given; wouldn't be so sorry if Pitch died, because there's something fishy in his posts)
Nog: - (some of his posting looks odd and over-careful, giving two examples #110 & #127 of wishing especially to look contributing, well-tuned and friendly and careful not to rub anyone the wrong way)
Sally: - (lists him along the "possible wolves", not wolves though or those she doesn't have anything)
wilwa: - (could vote him among others; makes her feel uneasy and is iffy)
Nog: - (speculating on voting possibilities and restating things already said)
Wilwa: 0 (thought she might go with Pitch but decides to stick with Boro)
Sally: - ("another bad vibe, to be honest; I had evidence but can't remember what it was right now, so basically he's just acting strange and I don't like it")
Bes: - (will not vote but stays with the same three suspect; Mac, Nog & Pitch)

Day3

Eomer: + (because of the Mnemo voting him)
Nog: + (because of the Mnemo voting him and him voting Mnemo)
Mac: + (the voting + the wolves picking Inzil: "Safe to say, I think, that the wolves would not have chosen him if Pitch was one of them")
Wilwa: + (Mnemo voted him at a time that he very well could have been lynched)
Lottie: 0 (seems innocent, maybe too much so?) [later put him into slightly suspected category in a list]
Nerwen: + (Mnemo's vote was unlikely a wolf-on-wolf)
Mac: + (with evidence and feeling Pitch is "quite good")
Wilwa: - (reconsiders: his vote on D1 tied Mac with Mnemo and on D2 it might have been a give-up)
Lommy: + (quite convinced he's an ordo: no bad vibes + Mnemo-stuff)
Shasta: - (agrees with Wilwa, could vote for him with three others)


A few thoughts to follow...

[Nogrod]

Everyone can see what people thought of Pitch, but the more interesting thing to me is who didn't say things about him or when they did if they did. I've been a wolf quite many times and claim to know how it "usually" goes. Some stick to the front and interact with each other - even voting each other - while others are ignored... and it's the last issue I'm now interested about.


Interestingly Brinn has not said a word about Pitch in the whole game! And her happiness in claiming the moral highground toDay hasn't made me feel better of her.

Nerwen was quiet about Pitchie D1 and 2 and only commented yesterDay that Mnemo's vote probably was not a wolf-on-wolf.

Boro and Eomer belong to the similar kind of a club: Boro makes a slight point of waiting more from four posters (Pitch included) but never returns to Pitch after that; Eomer says later on D1 that he could vote one of seven in his list (Pitch included) and then the next time he mentions him it's his beginning post where he says that because of the voting Pitch is more likely innocent.

Morsul says early on D1 that Pitch feels innocent and after that there is no mention of Pitch in his posts.

Not everyone mentioned here is a wolf - and not all people have time or a habit to make summaries or lists. But I'd bet a lot that there is at least one in there.


Shasta and Wilwa were independent enough (alongside Greenie) to suspect Pitch still yesterDay when most of us others were happy with the double w-on-w not being believable. That would talk good of them, to me at least.


Mac has really been going to and fro with Pitchie. Or has he?

Looking at it from the Devil's advocate's perspective he starts on D1 with mild suspicion, then when others suspect Pitch as well he starts backtracking and speaking in favour of him later on to the Day. On D2 he's mildly critical of him (as the general mood was that) but doesn't like the way others suspect Pitch. On D3 he starts bringing forwards theories why Pitch is innocent (wolves choosing Inzil) and saying that with both "feeling and evidence" he's quite good...

And then toDay he says this...

Originally Posted by Mac

I don't mean to criticise those who want to analyse Pitch, and I'm aware that I'm contradicting my comment about a boring Day, but aren't you counting your chicken before they're hatched? All your work could, in theory, be for nothing.

I can see that possibility and would hate that being true, but we have to try when we have time and while we're alive...

So now good night. See you later in the Day!