WWLXX: At the Prison of Ice

[Pitchwife]

Zil - a quiet presence, hanging back and posting only when he's got something to say, which makes him look cautious and on his guard. Suspecting him is almost as easy and popular as Hakon-bashing. Sometimes he deserves it, sometimes not, hard to tell which. So far, however, I've seen nothing that cries wolf, and I don't quite see where Mnemo's vote comes from.
Mac has been playing in a somewhat similar style so far, which makes it hard to pin him down. But I find it noteworthy that he rescinded his early 'declaration of innocence' for me (for which, truth to be told, there was hardly any base at the time but maybe a vague instinct) very shortly after I pointed out his use of double standards.

Now for the Nog-Roa controversy. We've seen it all before, but this time, Nog looks odder of the two. Secret cobbler is a definitive possibility, but no more than that. Let's keep them both for another Day and see whether Nog comes up with something more substantial.

EDIT: x-ed with everyone since Mnemo's #130.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Mac has been playing in a somewhat similar style so far, which makes it hard to pin him down. But I find it noteworthy that he rescinded his early 'declaration of innocence' for me (for which, truth to be told, there was hardly any base at the time but maybe a vague instinct) very shortly after I pointed out his use of double standards.

Oddly enough, after apparently deciding not to go for me here:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Inzil - defense convincing; off hook for now; needs to say more

Mac then flip flops:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Since they're the only ones left, I'd tentatively consider Inzil (need to read more, so far mostly either agreed with others or defended himself), Nogrod (would deserve a long case, which I can't provide at the moment), Lommy (don't know what to do with her). Not happy with options.

And I still think he was entirely too quick to use the Boro controvery-which-shouldn't-have-been as a reason to cast suspicions.

[Eomer of the Rohirrim]

Ah Shasta, ever eager to play Eomer to my Lommy.

Wait, what?

[Shastanis Althreduin]

Originally Posted by Eomer of the Rohirrim

Ah Shasta, ever eager to play Eomer to my Lommy.

Wait, what?

What, no interest in a spinoff of "The Shasta/Eomer Show"?

X'd with Lommy.

[satansaloser2005]

Here for a bit and will read through as quickly as I can. *dashes off* Vote count?

[Nienna]

Ok so I'm super sorry I haven't been around till now. I was working. I'll be on till deadline though I don't know how much help I can be. Lommy is feeling the worst to me so far. Her posts haven't been helpful but I know she is coming on the computer so I'll giver her a slight chance. I don't think that Mnemo is looking all that suspicious. Nog and Roa are probably both innocents. I don't know what to do with Mac or Boro but I probably won't be voting for either of them. I also won't be voting Morsul.

Edit: Crossed with a host

[Macalaure]

Morsul -> Mac
Roa -> Nogrod
Brinn -> Nerwen
Mnemo -> Inzil
Green -> Mnemo
Eomer -> Mnemo(2)

Originally Posted by Pitch

But I find it noteworthy that he rescinded his early 'declaration of innocence' for me (for which, truth to be told, there was hardly any base at the time but maybe a vague instinct) very shortly after I pointed out his use of double standards.

That reminds me that I have to explain why there were no double standards. Inzil's list had nothing in it (Eomer noted the same somewhere). Mine had little more than nothing, but I admitted its little use.
My (non-)suspicion of you had nothing to do with it. You felt innocent at first, then less, now more again.


Inzil, is your only points against me that I jump to conclusions and back too quickly? What else are you supposed to do on Day1? If you voice your opinions with some overblown certainty, at least you'll be sure to get a response that's valuable.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Inzil, is your only points against me that I jump to conclusions and back too quickly? What else are you supposed to do on Day1? If you voice your opinions with some overblown certainty, at least you'll be sure to get a response that's valuable.

'Overblown certainty'? That was Nog, not you.
You gave no reasons for your sudden shift in how I looked to you, and like I said, that wasn't the only point I saw against you.

I hate that we always seem to do this, Mac.

[Nogrod]

I will probably stick with Roa whatever you think... unless there is something I find totally wrong in the voting.

Of others I'd say that Nerwen's fast "backpedalling" (heh, I learned a new word from this) after being suspected, even if quite easily, looks a bit suspicious - not to say what some others have said that she's a bit tense.

I don't find Mnemo that suspicious. Instead she was one of the only reasonable ones at least in the earlier part of the Day - sadly I don't have such a clear view on her from the latter part of the Day.

I agree that Inzil's first list of people looked more of something that was intended to look good rather than being genuinely helpful - and he has been careful indeed. Like Pitchie...

I always suspect Mac - and I actually do now as well. But I would be very hesitant to call anything on that, at least without any further reasons.

I feel, actually think I have a reason to believe, that Boro is innocent.

With Shasta I'm wavering; could go both ways.

[Pitchwife]

Voting time approaches. Have I already said I hate Day 1 votes?
Leaving our obvious loudmouths aside, I've got to say Mac makes me most uneasy at the moment. Double standards, general slipperyness, plus the flip-flopping Zil pointed out. It's more a vibe-matter than reasoning, but that's what I have to go on right now.
++Macalaure

[Bes]

Eugh. You guys post so very, very quickly. Admittedly there's close to 20 people in the game, so that's to be expected. Anyway!

I don't feel at all confident in my previous statement about Boro at this point; I was sleepy, it was 1AM, and even then it just me going with my gut... and later being sort of irritated at what I perceived as an inflammatory response.

I'm hesitant to peg either Roa or Nogrod, though they both feel suspicious to me, Nogrod more than Roa. He's speaking in a very firm and confident way about an argument that has about an ounce of evidence which is based on something that could just as easily be a coincidence. I don't want to say he's wrong, but I won't vote Roa today based on that either. He'll have to sell it to me more tomorrow.

I'll admit that I haven't considered everything as carefully as I could, but the arguments that make the most sense to me, right now, are Inzil's arguments against Mac. He's the only one so far that I can look back all the way and say that I feel iffy about, aside from the previously mentioned Roa and Nogrod.

++Macalaure

[Macalaure]

Last minute bandwaggon against me? At least Inzil's vote should be guaranteed...

Joy.

[Macalaure]

To everyone who's not eager to lynch me, I'd prefer Inzil over Mnemo a lot.

[Boromir88]

So what happened yesterday...on Mondays and Wednesdays I return from my research expeditions at 3:30 (EST) and for some reason I calculated 5 to be the DL. When Morsul said it was 4 for him, I was a little confused, because he's in EST too. But for whatever reason, when I returned from the expedition I had it in my mind it was 5 pm, and I take my jolly good time writing a post, believing I had over an hour to vote. By the time I post it, it's 17 minutes past the DL.

I didn't cast my vote yet, still thinking I had a while, but I was leaning towards Inzil and this is the post that I deleted from yesterday...

-------

I don't feel at all confident in my previous statement about Boro at this point; I was sleepy, it was 1AM, and even then it just me going with my gut... and later being sort of irritated at what I perceived as an inflammatory response.~Bes

My apologies, but try to get used to it. I'm very theatrical, over-the-top, and sometimes sarcastic, which of course can be seen as inflammatory. Interesting backpedalling yourself though...

Last minute bandwaggon against me? At least Inzil's vote should be guaranteed...

Joy.~Mac

For what it's worth I have no intention of voting for you. For once you don't have to feel like I'm a vote for you "waiting to happen."

It's not because you've defended me, but you were dead on about wolf-Boro backing away from controversial statements, and not desiring to slam down to try and prove I'm right. Of course Eomer and Morsul are also right to point out my unpredictability and the thrill of the fight, as a wolf, I wouldn't say I'm more cautious, but I definitely choose my battles more carefully.

I love the feeling of having no responsibility besides making a vote. I can just say whatever I want and not care what happens to me, nor feel like if I die early that I'm letting anyone down.

Anyway, the bigger reason is I think Inzil's case is not only weak, but faulty.

And I still think he was entirely too quick to use the Boro controvery-which-shouldn't-have-been as a reason to cast suspicions.~Inzil

I don't get it, and to be honest I was questioning Mac's motives when he first made the post of people reacting to my controversy. However, that wariness was because I questioned his motives, it had nothing to do with the "speed" that he did it. Once Mac provided his reasons for doing it, the wariness went away.

Nerwen had a point that at least one wolf would probably ignore the controversy altogether, but that doesn't disprove the fact that Mac is correct, several people jumped on it, and then several more either agreed with me, or then back-pedalled there is likely wolf involvement. Greenie said the debate itself over who is right, or if I'm using terrible logic, is pointless, but it did provide lots of reading and involvement from nearly everyone.

I was wary of Mac at first, but it had nothing to do with the speed with which he did it. To suspect him for jumping in too fast is weak and faulty.

--------

That was it, so now debate this...You have 24 hours - the time that this post appears.

I've also finished going through 11 people's posts from yesterday, of course the bottom half of the posters, because reading through all you jabber-mouth scientists is just tedious. Plus, it took me much longer than I thought to go through wilwa's posts. I will post my thoughts on all of 'em in a bit and try to get the rest of you done by the end of the day. No guarantees there.

Can we assume that based on people believing there would be an actual lynch that neither Inzil nor Mac are gifted?

[satansaloser2005]

For what it's worth, I don't think a wolf out of water (aka Mnemo....yeah, I know, I made a lame Disney pun) would do a coin flip or even suggest it, as she would know it could get her some votes.

I'm actually kind of suspicious of Shasta right now; call it a hunch. Roa seems too strange to me (and as usual, the first Day is rubbish and I'm only able to sparknotes how I think) and while Nog looks weird I trust him so far. Boro's clearly the devil.

And Mac? Bwah? I'll have to look at him toMorrow. For now though, I'll go with:

++Roa


We don't have to highlight, do we? *hates being rushed* I'll do all I can toNight to catch up and make sure we're in a better spot toMorrow.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Nienna

neither does Mnemo...

*shurg* Maybe, but worse than Inzil or Mac...

I have the feeling this'll be chaotic.

edit: xed with people again

[Macalaure]

Me 3, Mnemo 3, Inzil 3?

[Macalaure]

++Inziladun

I don't like to go there every game either...

[satansaloser2005]

Ties=Evil.

[Inziladun]

All right, Mac. I really didn't want to vote for you, since I always suspect you. But to ensure my survival:

++ Mac

[satansaloser2005]

*pulls out hair* See what I come back to?

[Thinlómien]

4-4 tie? *confusion and mess*

edit: sorry for the lateness, my computer clock is like 30 seconds late or something...

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Our discussion on that day has been far from a discussion of professional investigators. Despite the efforts of all of us to focus on our most immediate concern, our discussion kept changing forms. At first it often slipped into an academic debate. It could be seen that we were scientists - stranded and in a dire situation, but scientists nevertheless. Later however, the process thrust us into a heated dispute.

In the end the majority seemed convinced that it was our meteorologist who was responsible, but our decision was far from unambiguous. There was one unused compartment on the ship where we locked him, despite his protests. It was an act of fear which even further undermined our morale. However, at least some of us seemed hopeful enough, being convinced that we have caught the culprit. The more realistic were reminding us that there was nothing to celebrate as our communication with the outer world was still severed and our ship as much trapped as before the incident. Neither of those two groups, though, could have foreseen the full scale of horror that was to break out in this prison of ice.

By 10 AM of the following day we have split into two groups again, some staying on the ship and trying to finish what our poor lead enginer had started, some taking a trip on feet further on, towards the sole landmark nearby: the rumoured unknown island or ice floe which some have spotted the day before. As the sky lightened, we could see its shape rising against the southern sky. It was hardly an hour's walk from our place, and both of our polar biology experts encouraged us to go there. There was but a slight hope of being able to see another mark of civilation from up there, but no doubt a psychological effect also played its part. Our ship was too small for everyone to take part in the repairs, not to mention that many of us had no real experience in such matters whatsoever. Such ones would appreciate the chance to move and do something which seemed at least partially sensible. We didn't know how long we will be forced yet to stay on the ship, yet we feared that it might be too long.

LIVING MEMBERS OF THE EXPEDITION:

Inziladun - meteorologist
Mnemosyne - field medic
Boromir88 - senior assistant to a professor of glaciology
Eomer of the Rohirrim - sea pilot
Loslote - rich funder's spoiled daughter
Morsul - federal grants lawyer
Brinn - polar bear biologist
Pitchwife - marine biologist
Nienna - navigator
Nogrod - old palaeoecologist with is own theory of climate change
Macalaure - palaeomathematician
sally - the original initiator of the expedition
Thinlómien - whale expert
Nerwen - mechanic
Roa - survival guide
Bes - room/store manager
Shasta - sled-dog handler
wilwa - crewmember
Greenie - senior assitant to important scientists in the company
tromkehra - cook/bartender

LYNCHES:

would-be Day 1 lynchee: Inziladun

The team made the decision not to cause death on the first Day. Nobody is lynched toDay. There will also be no Night kill among the players. See this post on the admin thread for more details.

Night 2 begins. Werewolves, you may start PMing each other, but no Night kill is going to take place this time. Ranger and Hunter may start PMing too. No posting on this thread again until the next Day.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Deadline. The Day is over.

Narration is coming up soon here also along with the Day's outcome. I will count and check the votes. In case you are around here and reading this and are not in desperate need to leave, I suggest that you patiently wait like five to ten minutes at most for the narration to be posted. And not do anything else. Yet.

[Pitchwife]

Just noticed - I was under the impression that Nog had voted Roa already, but according to Eomer's tally he hasn't, and I can't actually find a vote among his posts (would be quite uncharacteristic for him to vote early, anyway). Didn't want to create a false impression.
Has anybody considered Nog has a secret role which is not a cobbler?

[Thinlómien]

I'm here and I have read everything and I honestly just don't have anything to say. I seem to be a bit unable to get a grip on the game, undoubtedly partly because I haven't been dedicating it as much time as I could have, due to seeing friends etc.

While I agree that I would totally advocate the Roa-Nogrod-in-cahoots theory as a wolf if they were innocent, I still advocate it also as an innocent with no knowledge on their roles. Because normally if they were like that there would be at least one "oh don't we ever learn, we always do this" comment in the middle of that, but no. This time it seems staged because it's so dramatic. Neither party is questioning their reasoning at all, which is not a sign of innocence.

I'm not sure if I'll vote either of them, though, because funnily enough, that would seem quite drastic to me, especially as if ignoring the details, their petty fight seems so normal and thus not very suspicious at all. Argh. I guess I could vote Mnemo or Nienna, but they haven't really done much to merit my suspicion (but then again it's Day1). Or then I could vote Eomer because he would undoubtedly like that.


edit: xed with the stuff after the vote count

[Thinlómien]

Darn, Eomer's vote for Mnemo makes me hesitant to vote her, because that would turn the Mnemo-votes to a bandwagon and I'm not sure if she deserves that.

Also, I don't get why Nogrod seems so desperate. Usually he keeps calm even if the whole village suspects him and now it's only a minority.

Nienna comes back and suspects me. Wonderful. Because that makes me suspect her in return. I feel sort of "justified" in this suspicion though, because others have suspected me slightly too and I don't suspect them, so I'm not suspecting everybody in retaliation ergo my suspicion of Nienna can't be totally retaliatory which'd mean there's something that seems off to me in her behaviour even if I can't analyse it... Makes sense?


edit: xed with a host

[Thinlómien]

Ewwwwwwww.... the time!

[Thinlómien]

A vote for Nienna seems throwaway now... so the question is, Nogrod or Mnemo...

[Thinlómien]

Although seeing Mac's latest post I wouldn't necessarily say it's innocent... which is a pity because I did think him innocent more or less all Day... hmm...

[Thinlómien]

But Inzil doesn't seem to bad, Mac.

++Mnemo


edit: xed with everybody, as with the few last posts but I was too lazy to mark it

[Nienna]

I would also prefer Zil over Mnemo or Mac.

[Macalaure]

Thank you, Nienna.

[Loslote]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm here and I have read everything and I honestly just don't have anything to say. I seem to be a bit unable to get a grip on the game, undoubtedly partly because I haven't been dedicating it as much time as I could have, due to seeing friends etc.

Here's the post; # 151 if you want to look at the whole thing.

EDIT: xed with Mac