TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[Nerwen]

The Saucepan Man
...Who is, appropriately, one noisy player. This took ages!

#11.
Banter, joke-suspecting everyone who has posted so far. Comments on overall set-up. This is where the "Friendly Wolf" thing first appears. He finishes by saying that it would be best to kill the Bear, but that this won't be easy since they leave few tracks.

#15.
[Replying to Greenie's question on how hard the Bear will be to catch]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

That depends how good the Bear is. No pressure, by the way, Bear.

[Replying to my comment that last time he jokingly accused everyone, he was a wolf.]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

True. But, as you know, lightning never strikes in the same place twice. Except in horror stories, of course … er ... oh …

An odd response. May just be a joke, but could also be a wolf trying to signal to the cobbler (or even vice versa). This was still in the jokey early part of the Day, however, so I wouldn't want to read too much into it. He's doing a lot of winking, though...

#20.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

I assume that the friendly Wolf counts in the Wolves’ numbers for the purposes of determining victory, just as the Cobbler counts for the Innocents. But, he is, of course, playing for us, so it would be somewhat ungracious to kill him, if we can possibly avoid it.

I should guess that this is the comment that did most to bring him under suspicion later, as it looks very much as though he is hinting that he is the "Friendly Wolf". Could also be trying to suggest that the "Friendly Wolf" leave clues to stop us lynching him.

Repeats that killing the Bear would be good, but difficult to accomplish.

Speculates on "the dynamic between the Wolves and the Bear". Concludes that "the Innocents and the Wolves have a mutual interest in finding and killing the Bear". Asks if there is "any way that we might use these dynamics to our advantage?"

#21. [Replying to Inzil.]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

I rather got the impression that Nerwen was being flippant. In which case, your readiness to seize upon this as suspicious is, in itself, somewhat suspicious.

Which I agreed with.

#25. Relying to Morsul, who said that we would still need to kill the "Friendly Wolf".

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

But if the friendly Wolf is the last remaining Wolf, I hardly think that he is going to suddenly turn on the remaining innocents ...

#29.
Says that my comment about hoping we will not lynch the "Friendly Wolf" too soon is "worth bearing in mind".

These last two are, again, rather odd comments. I wondered at the time if he could be the "Friendly Wolf"... so again it raises the possibility that he was deliberately posing as a non-existent role. That would, though highly suspicious, also be extremely foolhardy for a wolf at that stage. At this stage I'd guess his role to be either the cobbler, or else an innocent who perhaps thought I was the FW.

#35.Accepts Inzil's demolition of the "Friendly Wolf" theory; says he misinterpreted the narration. Points out that Mira has made a mistake and given the wrong number of ordos. Comments that at least we now have an even greater chance of lynching a baddie.

#43. Is glad the mistake is cleared up; thinks we should perhaps have kept the "Friendly Wolf" idea going longer, to confuse the Wolves; doesn't like the way Roa suspects him for his mistake.

#47. Is astonished that anyone could think the "Friendly Wolf" idea was a ruse by a baddie, since that interpretation of the narrative would not occur to someone (i.e. a wolf) who knew its true meaning, and since the "ruse" would depend on most of the village also being taken in. Thinks Roa's apparent mistake about the number of wolves may have been an actual trick. Roa's quickness to jump on people makes him uneasy.

–Which is all quite reasonable.

#49. Agrees with Roa that we need to vote for someone, but is reserving judgement for now.

#99. Suspects Roa for aggression, but admits that she is always like that. Is still reserving judgement. Reiterates (replying to Nogrod, who find him suspicious) that the "Friendly Wolf" ruse would be a bad one. Defends Greenie against Nogrod's charge that her preoccupation with the Bear is itself bearish– points out that Bears are "a rare feature of WW games" so it's not surprising people are concerned about them. Says Nogrod seems "uncharacteristically aggressive", but is perhaps "too in your face" to be a wolf.

A cobbler's unwillingness to go after anyone too strongly, in case that person is a wolf? Perhaps.

Then he says this:

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

I'm glad to see that Boro, at least, caught my drift concerning the dynamics between the Bear and the Wolves. I pretty much agree with all that he says. It's not a case of trying to get one or t'other of them on our side or relying on them to side with us, but rather pointing out, so that they are clear, what it is their best interests to do.

Now he– SPM– is preoccupied with the Bear. Why? It's not unreasonable, as the bear (was!) is indeed a menace, and also not one anyone's used to. However, it is in the interests of both wolves and cobbler to locate the Bear, as well as the village. It's also in their interest to keep us thinking about the Bear instead of them. (Yeah, I did mean that part of my Day One post.)

#104. Further defends himself against Roa.

#105. Replying to Morsul, who voted him.

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Congratulations. You have just appeared between my crosshairs.

Morsul's reason for voting him was indeed quite weird– because of the "Friendly Wolf" thing, which he also believed, and also because of what seems to be a severe case of the "Gambler's Fallacy".

#110. Defends himself against Roa, accusing her of misrepresenting his case against her. Denies he is over-defensive about the "Friendly Wolf" affair, since it has in fact brought him under suspicion.

#114. Says he needs to vote soon.

Comments that Hakon is "wrong-headed" and "unhelpful" but should not be voted for that. Is somewhat uneasy about Pitch– "He just seems to be sitting on the sidelines appearing reasonable but stirring the pot every now and then", and about Nogrod due to his aggression.

Says he is most worried about Morsul, because of the dodgy reasoning behind his vote.

#118.[Replying to Roa, who claims everyone is assuming the Bear will help the village]

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

I most certainly am not. I agree that we cannot rely on the Bear do do anything vis-a-vis the Wolves. Ditto the Wolves vis-a-vis the Bear. However, I see no harm in pointing out, for the Bear's benefit, that it is in his interests to go after the Wolves.

Dislikes Pitch's vote for Boro, as his case "looks to be the flimsiest of the flim to me."

#120. Very sharp response to Nogrod's comment that he has been praising Boro for stating the obvious:

Originally Posted by The Saucepan Man

Have you been neglecting to take your exaggeration medication again, Noggie? First Greenie and now me. Since when does a passing mention in a single post constitute praising someone "so many times"?

Says he will probably vote for Morsul.

#123.And does. Not, I think, a particularly suspicious vote.

Comments. Probably not a wolf, as I think the FW business looked like a genuine mistake. May be the cobbler. Some of his posts look like attempts to signal to other players, and his defence of Boro could be that of a cobbler who had mistaken Bearishness for wolfishness.

Or not. An innocent might try to sound out other players too.

Overall, I'd say the evidence is inconclusive. If evil, he is more likely cobbler than wolf.

EDIT:X'd with a host; added comment on vote.