TIG LXIX: Meeting at the House of Usher

[Nogrod]

I need to attend the Scarburg Mead Hall for a while but will be back before going to sleep and to vote. But just as a thought as I see I have used all my time reading the three I was first suspicious of when I read the thread the first time about 6 hours ago...

I agree with those who say this nasty situation (basically 1/3 wishes us no good) has a seed of positiviness in it, which is that even if we vote blindly on Day1 we have a nice chance of hitting it right - unlike in normal games where blind-shooting is always a great risk. Well it's a risk in every game, but so is going with hunches or just wrongly built "cases".

The number of real baddies, 5 out of 17, is clearly one more (even two) than the normal and adding the cobbler into the mix makes the intention-ratio quite evil - but also one where a trial to catch a submarine on Day1 could be argued for with even greater weight than normally (I'm not wishing to go into that discussion that has been done dozens of times).

The more Days go by the more stressing it will be to catch a baddie and the more everyone of us thinks it should be wiser to vote for someone with even a poor case than just randomly try out a non-poster. This Day.

My dad called... just a minute...

[Boromir88]

I got finished with everything a little sooner than anticipated *yay*, but mostly that was because I was dead tired and decided not to continue practice any further. I'll be around the rest of the day, but likely will not be able to make it to the late DL on this night.

I've scanned through, there's lots of wolves and werebear dynamics discussion. The fact is (and what Pitch refers to an earlier post about the "disagreement" that got people lynched in the previous game with the werebear) if the werebear wants to win a solid strategy is to target wolves at night. Period. What the werebear actually does is a different matter, but the wolves pose just as much as a threat to the werebear during the Night as the werebear getting lynched.

Someone suggested that the bear would team up with the wolves (I'll go back and find out who in a bit ), but that only ends in a loss for the bear. It serves no benefit for his win to keep the wolves alive. This is what I think was the disagreement in the last game with the werebear, because there really is no way to control what the bear (or wolves) decide to do. However, I see no harm in discussing Sauce's questions, afterall we talk wolf strategy all the time, why not werebear?

There's also a dual-purpose. It's been proven in previous villages where wolves get 2 kills that's not as much of a benefit as some make it out to be. In the Night Guard game the wolves went for the easy set up-lynch innocent Legate the next day instead of cashing in on their 2-kills. I realize the dynamics of that game were different than this, but in this case one of the kills at night will not be by the wolves. So, one of the wolves risks dying at night, as the werebear also is at risk for dying. Thus the dual-purpose, if the werebear targets wolves at night and therefor is a threat to the wolves, than the wolves will have to definitely consider going after the bear. My stating of this I don't think ruins the dynamics, because it is a very logical thing to assume, if the werebear wants to win he's got to bring down the number of wolves quickly, and if the werebear proves to be a threat the wolves will have to go after him. So, let's set them against eachother, or in the very least make them think we are setting them against eachother.

I'm going to catch up on a thorough read through and post thoughts on everyone. Before I forget

*hands Fea a cinnamon roll* How long did it take to write that poem? Bravo.

Edit: crossed since Pitch's 78

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Intending to vote either Hakon, for calling Mira a liar via suggesting that her 'random' selection wasn't random, and for pulling meta reasoning in when it was forbidden, and for being abrasive; or for Morsul, for forcing me into a probability lesson when I'd much rather crayola my way through a fun project.

(SYTYCD is on; shan't be back for a couple hours.)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

I'd also like to note that I stated a solid four hours before deadline that I was going to vote for either Hakon or Morsul.

Which was actually prior to the first vote for either of them.

So the suggestion that I jumped onto a bandwagon? Faulty. If you want to set me up, you might want to try claiming that I started a bandwagon.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

If you want to set me up, you might want to try claiming that I started a bandwagon.

Enough with the paranoia, please. Far from setting you up, I haven't even said I'm going to vote for you. I said I would analyse the Morsul-voters, and you happened to be one of them.

If I do vote for a Morsul-voter, well, yes, it's probably going to be you. However, I'm also considering others, including Greenie, because I agree with the people saying she looks suspicious.

[Loslote]

Okay, list time!

Brinn - has not been super active. Suspected me - okay, I can see your point. Made good points. I don't suspect her much at all.
Fea - made a good point in #268. I still suspect her, but I'll let it slide for now.
Greenie - I find her suspicious, but don't have much to say that hasn't been said already.
Inzil - seems quite reasonable. I don't suspect him yet.
Lari - has been sick, but promised us a real post. *looks forward to it*
McCaber - wow. Okay, there's one I forgot to mention in my last post - now HE looks suspicious.
Nerwen - didn't make on in time to vote. Analyzes people. Looks genuine.
Nog - looks genuine. More so than last game, when we know he was. Hmm...okay, paranoid thoughts aside: not suspicious.
Pitchwife - made good points, doesn't seem suspicious, nothing out of the ordinary there.
Roa - I haven't gotten much read on her, which is strange. Normally you really notice her. But I doubt if she's a wolf.
sally - was sick. Not very active. Fairly suspicious, but doesn't scream "wolf".
Saucepan Man - I think he's genuine, as I've said before. What he's said today doesn't really change my mind either way.
wilwa - says she may have to drop out. Either she's really busy and telling the truth, or she's a very clever little wilwolf. Ah, well. Not toDay.

So far, Cabbie's the most suspicious. I'll probably vote him toDay...but that may yet change.

EDIT: xed with Nerwen

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Loslote

McCaber - wow. Okay, there's one I forgot to mention in my last post - now HE looks suspicious.

Oh, and him, too. He's another I might vote.

I'm just awaiting inspiration at the moment.

[Loslote]

I'm sorry - I've got to go. I apologize.

++ McCaber

Sorry!