Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Brinniel

They might choose not to kill them to add to the confusion. If they killed one of the claimed rangers, the village would question why they chose to do so. After all, they'd be exposing the true identity of the ranger. If wilwa as an ordo was killed, we'd definitely not lynch Hakon. And if they killed Hakon, then we'd be hesitant to lynch wilwa because why would a wolf expose herself like that? But if they left them both alive, chances were that we'd lynch one of them and they could take care of the other the following Night.

The confusion gained isn't worth the price they are paying as a result. Why should we hesitate to lynch Wilwa if Hakon were proven to be the ranger? Even if we had doubts that a wolf would expose herself like that, it would still be safer to lynch her. There would be absolutely no reason for us to let Wilwa live after that, and the wolves could certainly not count on any doubts by the villagers saving them. And while there were calls to lynch one of them (primarily Hakon, notably by Lari), it was a move that simply couldn't be pulled off, as we refused to touch the matter and made it clear that it was our intention to leave it alone until we could be more certain or had the other wolf.

I do agree that on the very slim chance that Wilwa is not a wolf, Morsul should be lynched next. Especially if Wilwa turns out to be the Agent.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, here at last, I wasn't able to get online during the day due to RL and now at last when I came here, the 'Downs was down, so let's see if I can manage to read what has happened meanwhile, but from what I spotted by the corner of my eye, Lari is the baddie, i.e. Pw revealed her?

So off to read the thread, and I will hopefully post yet before the DL (well, I want to even if I don't manage to read all, unless the 'Downs go down again).

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

As for her anti-reveal toDay... Well. There was always a slight possibility we'd believe her and lynch Hakon, and I think it would have been wise for a wilwolf to make a Plan B for that case. By now, she'd have had 2 Days to prepare it.

Yep, well, I really think, personally, that the difference between a Wilwolf trying to keep pretending to be a Ranger and a Wilwolf saying that she's an ordo is that with the second one, she could theoretically live forever. Whereas with the first, even if we lynched Hakon, she would be obviously going for the gallows the next Day. It's really like the last desperate attempt to save her skin, she would not have much more to lose.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Now....what kind of stupid wolf would do this???? The Ranger was already revealed, a wolf me would have nothing to gain by bluffing and putting myself out in the open like that. Nothing. And providing the village with two more dreams??? No. A wolf me would never do such a thing, I always stay under the radar when I'm a wolf. I do crazy stuff when I'm an ord (like now) or in a role I've never had before (like my last game as Hunter), but never as a wolf.

That's maybe the only question from my part, but then, perhaps you thought you can pull off something with that. I wonder what. (That makes me think of Brinn's suggestion to lynch Morsul if Wilwa is not a Wolf after all... well, I mean, if Wilwa is for example an Agent. That would be a good explanation for such a behavior. But obviously, if we lynch Wilwa, then we will know, and if she is an Agent, it is clear who would be the next in the line.)

Originally Posted by Hakon

I kept Pitchwife alive. I protected him the second night and I bluffed him into protection the third night and really protected myself. The fourth night I protected him and the wolves failed to kill him. Wolfwa I came up with this plan before you false revealed. You did not keep either Pitchwife or me alive. Tomorrow I vote for Wolfwa.

Eeexactly. Pw revealed already on the first Day, and the Wolves couldn't know if he will be protected or not on the first Night. After that, it was Hakon's bluff which left him alive. Although truly wilwa's revelation played an important part in it too, because it certainly contributed to the fact that Pw (or Hakon) wasn't killed, or at least targeted, sooner.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Wilwa, I am indeed puzzled by why a wolf-you would have acted as you did... but then I'm puzzled by why an innocent you would either.

This–

#168.


does not look much like the work of an ordo intent on saving the Ranger to me.

Yep, that's what I said in the beginning, that we should look if there are any inconsistencies in wilwa's behavior as for what she claims was her aim...

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I said that knowing there was no way you guys would kill him that day, cause no one would want to risk killing the real ranger that early. But if I had come on and said "I'm the real Ranger, but please don't hurt the fake one" I doubt anyone would have believed me. I was pretending, but I wouldn't have let him get lynched.

Nah, but I don't think everybody was so focused in his mind so that the possibility that we will not decide to lynch one of you would really be really something to completely rule out. The possibility was there. It would have been a very, very, very, very bold move to do what you did: putting yourself and the Ranger at risk.

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

It seems to me that they realized the charade couldn't go on, and decided to kill the seer before he could bring any more known innocents to light, or worse (for them) find a wolf. Wilwa was a gonner anyways, but had Lari not been found out, she may have been able to stave off the suspicion of her for some time- at least until the knowns were out of the way.

Yep, that's more or less what I think too.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Btw, if we lynch wilwa toMorrow and she turns out as not a wolf, I say we try lynching Morsul next. I know he looks very much like an agent, but we don't know it for sure. And I'd hate to let a wolf get away just because we made an assumption. Anyway, considering the ratio will be 8-1 toMorrow (correct me if I'm wrong), it's again something we can afford to do. We have plenty of Days left before we're in danger and with number of known innocents we already have I'm quite confident we will win. And if our final wolf somehow does manage to survive all this, then they deserve that win because they'd be awfully slick (as well as lucky with all this distraction brought on from false reveals).

Yep, like I already mentioned above, I like that suggestion. But let's see - I more or less think we are clear by now.

[Nogrod]

The 'Downs were down again at least here. Seems to be working again.

Wilwa: I must add to the choir which says we basically just have to lynch you toMorrow to be on the safe side. I mean that was a nice trick indeed and kudos for it whether you are a wolf or an ordo. And in the latter case we will call you the hero of the game.

But as Nerwen said, it's a different thing whether the fact that you managed to give us two more dreams was something you intended when you started your scheme or not... You are the single most suspicious player in the whole village right now, and you must know it.

If wilwa is not a wolf... well then a totally new game will start and it will be a tough one.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Yep, and with a good memory,

++Lari

Which, by the way, means that I was right in voting her yesterDay after all! *tears of happiness*

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If wilwa is not a wolf... well then a totally new game will start and it will be a tough one.

If Wilwa isn't a wolf, and Pitch is killed toNight (because he must be), and Hakon the next night (as is logical), that would leave us with 2 knowns (you and Crayon) and 5 unknowns. At that point I think it would be logical to lynch Morsul, since he could very well be a wolf pretending to be an Agent.

If he isn't a wolf, you will likely be the next kill (as the hunter would make them nervous), leaving one known person, and 4 unknowns. To those of us who are innocent, that leaves three potential candidates. And unless we really screw it up (which is possible) the last wolf will quickly be found out.

Given the ratios, I think it won't be all that tough.

This is assuming that Wilwa isn't a wolf, which is highly unlikely.

Edit: crossed since the above post

[Roa_Aoife]

And if the last wolf isn't Wilwa or Morsul and manages to survive to the end, then they deserve to win.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

And if the last wolf isn't Wilwa or Morsul and manages to survive to the end, then they deserve to win.

Exactly.

[Nogrod]

I do agree with your scenario Roa... that's probably the way it will go if wilwa is not a wolf... unless the last wolf wishes to do something confusing again...

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

leaving one known person, and 4 unknowns. To those of us who are innocent, that leaves three potential candidates. And unless we really screw it up (which is possible) the last wolf will quickly be found out.

Given the ratios, I think it won't be all that tough.

It would not be easy either... but the numbers would sure be on our side. It's just that the numbers do not win wars alone.

I'm optimistic though.

To toMorrow then!

(It's actually nice that this Day when I had so little time to play turned out eventful but still easy-going.)

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

(It's actually nice that this Day when I had so little time to play turned out eventful but still easy-going.)

Quite so from my part, too