Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXVIII: A Full Moon Over Innsmouth

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hm, as for having read Lari, I guess it would be good to see her around and posting more to get a better picture about her. This far, she could be 50-50 either for me. Though that suspicion of SpM on Day 1 would be somewhat too complicated to think of if it was orchestrated, but then, I really don't know that much about Lari to conclude how complicated schemes she could make (if it wasn't given as an idea to her by SpM himself anyway). Well, though I really don't know. Don't see her in particular as good as to vote for, but certainly watching her for now. Let's see what comes up.

Hm, I have the feeling that I had some other thought on my mind, but possibly forgot it.

Oh yes, maybe it was this, though I'm not sure - Crayon. Submarine. Scary. I know basically nothing about him. Though, well, what can one do about a newbie. And a submarine newbie. I hope he will be posting more on further Days, at least.

[Roa_Aoife]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Oh yes, maybe it was this, though I'm not sure - Crayon. Submarine. Scary. I know basically nothing about him. Though, well, what can one do about a newbie. And a submarine newbie. I hope he will be posting more on further Days, at least.

Crayon's lack of activity- I can vouch that he is in the military and preparing for deployment, making him very busy. I cannot vouch for his in-game role, but I do know that that's why he hasn't been very active.

He could, of course, be using that to his advantage.

[Roa_Aoife]

Loslote- okay, that's better, and I can see your point. (Obviously, as I said it a short bit ago.)

Edit: crossed with Nogrod

[Loslote]

Brinn:

Post 1: Paranoid, suspects everyone.

Post 2: Doesn't suspect SPAM, dislikes meta-game reasoning, doesn't like random voting.

Post 3: Doesn't suspect Nienna for disliking Morsul's vote; Doesn't want to lynch Hakon and suspects Wilwa for wanting to; suspects me.

Post 4: Believes Pitchie but doesn't think he should have revealed; is sad to see SPAM go.

Post 5: Still doesn't think Pitchie's reveal was wise.

Post 6: Is annoyed by reveals; wonders whether Morsul is the agent, a wolf, or a confused ordo; wants to believe wilwa; her head hurts.

Post 7: wants to look more at other players.

Post 8: Doesn't find Nienna suspicious; wonders what Morsul is/was trying to do.

Post 9: is wary of Legate but not suspicious; wants to trust Roa but fears she is being fooled; doubts SPAM would try to lynch me if I were a wolf; doesn't particularly suspect Inzil; doesn't really have an opinion about Kitanna.

Post 10: Says the rangers may be bluffing, but doesn't think so; is uneasy about wilwa; agrees with Legate that Inzil wouldn't have agreed to Pitchie's not being a wolf, but then suspects him for saying he was innocent; finds Inzil 'creepy'.

Post 11: Still doesn't suspect Nienna; doesn't like the bandwagon against her; doesn't want to vote Nogrod, either.

Post 12: Doesn't want to vote Ni or Nog; votes Inzil for being 'creepy'.

I wanted to look closer because my memory isn't perfect, and I didn't want a suspicion based purely on gut feelings. After looking through her posts, though, I still think she's suspicious.

EDIT: xed with two Roas

[Pitchwife]

Here's what Brinn actually said about Zil (#233):

A wolf Inzil wouldn't want to eliminate the possibility that Pitch could be lying so that if the wolves decide to intentionally leave him alive then we'll start to doubt Pitch's innocence and lynch him. It'd be a risky move to leave a seer alive and dreaming, though perhaps our wolves are afraid to kill him anyway with the possibility of hitting the ranger's protection and would rather have the village take care of him. Another thing that worries me about this quote is that last line. Anyone who clearly states "I am innocent" always makes me wary because someone who is really innocent does not need to emphasize or reassure that truth unless they are being heavily suspected at the time

Lottie's very much abbreviated rendering makes it sound like Brinn was contradicting herself here ("but then..."). But as far as I can see, this is a solid argument about Zil's reaction to my reveal, and I think it was one reason for her to vote him - not merely because she found him 'creepy'.
(I'm not saying what I think of Zil here, just commenting on Lottie's representation of Brinn.)
Anyway, it would be good to hear Brinn herself. Or Lari and Nerwen, for that matter.

[Nogrod]

I'll just send this first... I have some other quotes clipped and will produce them as I first make some comments on them...


Hakon -> Wilwa
(“Wilwa is faking.”)
Morsul -> Hakon
(“Hakon seems the worst off in the bunch”)
Crayon -> Morsul
(“1) if I'm the only one that votes for him, than at least I did not contribute to the possible death of the real Priest, 2) if more do vote for him, than he dies and frankly, no one will mourn, and 3) I'm thinking that if I wanted people to not find out that I'm a wolf I would make myself clearly look like something else.”)
Nienna -> Nogrod
- 1.00 wilwa -> Nienna
(“Honestly, I've been so focused on all these reveals I've barely looked at anyone else, but one thing that stuck out was how Nienna claimed that Nerwen was "closed minded" about Morsul. That just doesn't make much sense to me. I know that's flimsy, but I just don't have the time I expected to have to look closer at other people. Uh, this sucks.”)
- 0.59 Loslote -> Nogrod 2
(“because that last post sounded off to me. It seemed like he was either trying to get one of the 'revealed' lynched, when we've already decided to mostly leave them be - or trying to throw suspicion on Roa for making strong points... Argh. This vote is barely better than my last one...”)
- 0.33 Lari -> Nienna 2
(“Taking her defense on Day 1 with her vote post(so she doesn't like Nerwen's closemindness about what was kind of a bad fake reveal...but votes Nog? I honestly can't see the logic in that one, because she says she's not comfortable voting for Nerwen...but she is for Nog?”)
- 0.16 Inzil -> Nienna 3
(“Wilwa's reasoning for Nienna struck me as suspicious, since she used almost the same wording as in my post. I was going to vote for Nienna myself, though.”)
- 0.12 Roa -> Nogrod 3
(“Because innocent Nogrod accuses me of being evil every time I do an unfavorable analysis of him, and Wolf-grod tries to keep the waters calm.”)
- 0.06 Nogrod -> Nienna 4
- 0.05 Nerwen -> Morsul
(“I'm not sure enough about either Nienna or Nogrod to vote them.”)
- 0.01 Brinn -> Inzil
(“I would rather have no part in the Nienna and Nogrod bandwagon. Nienna hasn't even been here to defend herself and I already said I'm uncomfortable voting Nog. Right now I still find Inzil creepy”)
- 0.01 Legate -> Inzil 2
(“I get bad feeling from Inzil, really, from a few things I spotted. So I will probably vote him. Especially his indefinite judgements like "I don't like this" and things like what he said about me, "Legate seems like he might need watching for some reason, but it's nothing I can can out my finger on. It's not in anything in particular he's said; more the tone I guess." This is a sort of typical Wolfish indefinite door-for-suspicion-open-talk.”)

[Nogrod]

I'll send you some quotes this time as well, even it will be a long one...


Okay, Hakon looks quite innocent in the following quotes...

Originally Posted by Hakon #171

I am protecting Pitch tonight as I have already stated and Wilwa is not protecting anyone since she will be coming after me with her pack mates.

and after Loslote suspected him…

Originally Posted by Hakon #184

I am not new to WW. I am on the newer side. This is my sixth or seventh game. I did not guard Pitchwife since I knew the wolves would expect that. They expected me to guard him so I avoided doing so and thus I can now guard him when they will go for him. I made that clear, did I not?

What did wilwa say yesterDay then?

Originally Posted by Wilwa #164

Both Pitch and Morsul are making me uneasy. I really don't know which is really being truthful. I am tempted to believe Morsul though. I mean think about it, if he was faking it wouldn't he have said that he too had dreamt of SPM?? Just to make it more believable? I don't know it's tough.....

Oh my Hakon. So I was right to vote you yesterDay. You're really going to make me do this aren't you??

Originally Posted by wilwa #168

I posted that then got off the computer to study for a bit, and I realised afterwards I should have never said who I protected, so I came back on. Besides, I'm not even positive Pitch is the dreamer, it could be Morsul. But it's so obvious to me that Hakon is evil, I just wanted it to be out there so we can definitely get a baddie today. I could always protect myself toNight and then get another protection (that only I know about) the following Night, or something. Like I said, I've never played this role before, so I'm not used to it.

Originally Posted by wilwa #221

Now. This may make alot of sense, but it also may not, to me it does anyway. I think me, Hakon and Pitch will all still be alive tomorrow. Because Hakon is wolf, so they're not gonna kill him. And they're not gonna kill me cause they're gonna want Hakon to continue to look good, and in order to do that they have to keep Pitch alive (since that's who he's supposedly "protecting") and me being dead, well it'll reveal who I really am and the wolves don't want that right now.

So we know we get atleast one more dream out of Pitch (two actually because I can protect him the next Night). I don't think he should waste that dream on me, Morsul or Hakon. We already know Morsul is the Agent, no reason to waste a dream on that, and you all know either me or Hakon are the Priest and a Wolf. So therefore the dream should go towards someone else all together. Make sense?

Originally Posted by wilwa #239

So I'm sure I'll still be here tomorrow, I can't see the wolves killing me and leaving HakonWolf out in the open like that. I really hope Pitch that you don't waste your dream on one of us, like I explained before.

Well first she says she believes Morsul more than Pitch but after being commented on playing to the wolves' hands and revealing she had protected Pitch the last Night by Roa she explains that she had realised her mistake in revealing her protection... and says she's "not even positive" Pitch is the real seer as it could be Morsul as well... hmm...

Interesting what she says about protecting herself btw. That's not a normal procedure and there seems to be no mention of it in the rules...

Then there are these "I'm sure I'm alive toMorrow" -things. The logic seems more or less correct but the way she kind of prepares for her being alive toDay looks fishy indeed. Although it is perfectly possible the wolves counted on that in part when making their decision last Night.

I don't know. wilwa is clearly on spot in this game and makes good points but also manages to make herself look pretty suspicious at times. Hakon is much more straightforwards and looks basically missing some of the subtleties but feels quite innocent.

That call for Pitch not to dream either of them in the end looks like a logical thing to say but somehow it feels a bit awkward... a bit premature or something.



With Inzil it’s kind of walking the rope again on Day2… Just check fex. how the following could be read:

Originally Posted by Inzil #132

I'd say Pitch is in the good books for sure. I'm anxious to see what his dream may have revealed. I'm afraid his time is likely short, but he should at least be able to give us a known innocent.

Defending himself from Kit who said he had not found anyone suspicious but Loslote & Nienna.

Originally Posted by Inzil #141

Actually, until Pitch's reveal, I have to say I was leaning toward Loslote. I didn't like her vote for Pitch, as it seemed to me she was simply grasping at the comments made by SPM and Nog (that I had noted earlier I thought were overreactions on their parts), and using them to justify her suspicion of Pitch.

To Hakon’s revealment and boasting of being right on Spm.

Originally Posted by INzil #153

I'll say nothing about your reveal in itself, save for the fact that you certainly should only have done this if you were in serious danger of being lynched. And yes, indeed you were right about SPM. I still don't endorse the thought process that led you to your conclusion though.

And the controversial one in full…

Originally Posted by Inzi #163

Here's why I have a tough time with this, Morsul.

Theoretically, Pitch could be a wolf, and his giving up SPM a plot to ensure his being thought innocent the rest of the game.
However, if Pitch survives beyond Day 3 or so, I would have to assume he was a wolf and go for him. Everyone knows that a revealed Seer is a dead Seer. It's only a matter of time. If he wasn't killed by the wolves after the oportunities for the Priest to protect him ran out, we'd have his number.
I do appreciate your giving me the all-clear though, as I am indeed innocent.

Originally Posted by #170

I think of the two Priest claimants, Hakon would be the more likely fraud, since there was *no* legitimate reason for him to have revealed.

And finally an answer to wilwa.

Originally Posted by #236

I don't know that wolves would leave a generally accepted seer alive, just to keep up a charade by one of their number. I think the logic there is a bit flawed.
I do think the seer / ranger confusion ought not to be a concern of ours when it comes to votes right now.

As on Day1 I would say Inzil looks a bit more innocent than guilty... but it's a thin line.


Okay, done with that. *phew*

Now some concentrated comments from the material I have been collecting and for some other things as well before going to bed.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Roa_Aoife

Crayon's lack of activity- I can vouch that he is in the military and preparing for deployment, making him very busy. I cannot vouch for his in-game role, but I do know that that's why he hasn't been very active.

He could, of course, be using that to his advantage.

Okay, well yes, that's why I said I hope to see more from him in the future. I am normally not that worried of people who slip outside the attention (we have other people for that ), but this is just the fact that we have most likely only one Wolf outside the spotlights (eventually, we will lynch the other, in one way or the other), so it's that basically apart from the known innocent Nogrod, oneself, the Seer, the two Rangers, and Morsul(likely Agent), you have some seven people to choose from, and six of them are innocent. Uh, really? So little? Well yes, could be... so wait... Inzil, Roa, Brinn, Nerwen, Lari, Crayon... is that all? So one Wolf is (most likely) in there? Hm, nice.

EDIT: Ha! Whom did I miss? Now that would be the most convinient way of spotting a Wolf I have ever seen! (Read above what I said )
EDITEDIT: Oh, okay. I missed Loslote. Hm, well, I really think her innocent.