Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Pitchwife]

It just occurred to me - among the surviving wilwa voters (those whose vote counted), Brinn and Nienna can't both be wolves. Both of them contributed to Zil's lynching on Day 3 (Brinn giving him the third vote, Nienna the fifth), and I can see one wolf doing that, but hardly two. Nienna's vote, late in the bandwagon when Zil already looked like a lost case, seems more suspicious to me.
As for Greenie - she joined forces with my misguided effort to avoid lynching Zil, and voted to Guard me on the same Day (following Zil's example?). I don't quite know what to make of this. As a wolf who found me useful, she would have known I was in no danger of being Night-killed. So, Greenie, did you honestly believe we were right (as I did) ?

(x-ed from Nilp #677 onwards)

[Boromir88]

The good news is I've divided the remaining players into 2 groups based on how they've interacted with eachother and the wolf Inzil.

Pitch
Greenie
Nilp

Pitch and Greenie were both very defensive of Inzil, and Nilp is pretty much saying he will not vote for Greenie or Pitch. Plus Inzil had very little interaction between the 3 of them.

Brinn
Nienna
Sally

Brinn and Nienna went after and sealed Inzil's fate and Inzil jokingly suspected them, and sally is just thrown in there because I really have no clue.

So far, I'm thinking the first group are more likely Inzil's partners, the way the night guard votes have spread out and no one clearly following someone, I think the wolves were trying to separate themselves as much as possible.

*However, sally and Nilp are interchangeable in my opinion.

Just thought I'd throw out what I'm currently thinking, now back to Pitch.

[Nienna]

Greenie:
36: Thinks there would be more to loose than gain if the seer revealed. Worried about Mnemo
39: Asks Nilp why he voted for himself
43: Says that she is not someone who one would want to get on bad terms with
95: Suspicious of Nog for his suspicion of Lommy
99: Would rather vote for someone with suspicion than a random vote or a vote for someone not contributing
102: Doesn’t like Day One’s, defends her mid-day chats
120: Is feeling ok about Mnemo now and defends herself, is still suspicious of Nog
138: Lynch votes Nog and guards me but mentions that she isn’t throwing away her guard vote completely… this is odd.
218: Doesn’t think the wolves would give up their kill so will probably vote Legate.
290: Mentions some possibilities for if Legate is innocent and if she doesn’t survive… votes to lynch Legate and guard Nog because he is her second top suspect and if he is innocent he is valuable.
410: Thinks that even though we can’t be certain of Nog’s guilt we should still pay attention to him … wolf trying to get another easy lynch??, then she doesn’t like Nerwen and her vote for Zil… it looks like she could be trying to get the heat off of her mate.
411: List: Creepy: Nerwen, Nog, Sally; No Idea: Brinn, Zil, McCaber, Pitchwife, Wilwa; Cuddly: Boro, Hakon, Nienna, Nilp
419: Asking who others want to lynch
422: Shies away from looking at Zil and wants to look at Boro instead
436: Doesn’t want to join the bandwagon so lynch votes for Sally instead
437: Guards Pitchwife because he is an easy Night target
479: Congratulates Zil voters, thinks wolves in the Zil bandwagon would be at the beginning and end, wonders about Hakon
482: List: Leaning Innocent: Boro, Nienna, Nilp, Pitchwife; No Idea: Brinn, McCaber, Nog, Wilwa; Leaning Evil: Hakon, Nerwen, and Sally
484: Worried that people aren’t taking Nog into account at all.
486: Talks about the Shasta guard-wagon
505: Sally creeps her out, flip-flops about Nerwen, Hakon is also being considered for her lynch target
507:

Originally Posted by Greenie

… so it's Sally or Hakon. Is there any support for either of these? The problem is, I suspect Sally more but Hakon already has one vote so is maybe a bit more likely to actually get lynched.

… this seems off to me… it seems like she is more concerned with their death than their role…
510: Lynch votes Hakon and guard votes Boro
582: Defends her flip-flop nature in regards to Nog, then defends avoiding attention saying there isn’t much else she can do short of screaming "Heeeeeeeeeeey I'm a wolf!"
583: Wonders if a McCaber lynch is too easy
593: Lynch votes her only real suspect: Sally, guard votes for me but I couldn’t be guarded again so she changed to Wilwa in 595
647: Wonders if the Wilwa bandwagon was orchestrated by a wolf and if maybe one of the other lynch options was a wolf as well
650-651: Theory that both Pitchwife and McCaber are wolves, then that would make me a wolf as well

Moral of the Story: I'm pretty sure she's a wolf.

Edit: x-ed with a bunch

[Boromir88]

It's really quite a minor thing about Greenie which worries me the most, it may see insignificant, or trivial, but it's something that wolf-Greenie has done in the past, and the 1st time through I fell for it hook, line, and sinker.

In #411:

Pitchwife - I have a vague memory that I had something to point out about him but can't remember what it was.. So far I really can't say.

This is one of the things that I met to say which stands in Pitch's defense.

I recall a certain wolf-Greenie throwing out a vague comment about how Nilp was suspicious and she forgot why, I read it as a sign that she was a gifted. I fell right into it and began aggressively suspecting Nilp, who wound up being the Ranger.

Her comment about Pitch reminds me of the same thing, a vague throw away comment about something important she had to say about someone, but then forgot.

[Brinniel]

Just to let you know I am here and working on analyses, but it's taking longer than expected so I'll try to speed it up and see how far I get.

[satansaloser2005]

I have to leave in like ten minutes. I'm still not sure who to vote for.


(Going to go think about possible wolf packs.)

[Nienna]

We can't afford to split up the vote so keep that in mind.

[Nienna]

McCaber?? Are you still around? Who do you find suspicious?

[satansaloser2005]

Players:
Sally
Brinn
Nienna
Boro
Nilp
Greenie
Cabbie
Pitchie


Wolf pack #1: Greenie, Nilp, Pitchie
Wolf pack #2: Greenie, Nilp, Boro
Wolf pack #3: Greenie, Pitchie, Boro
Wolf pack #4: Greenie, Brinn, Nilp
Wolf pack #5: Greenie, Boro, Nienna
Wolf pack #6: Brinn, Pitchie, Boro
Wolf pack #7: Boro, Nilp, Pitchie
Wolf pack #8: Nilp, Nienna, Brinn
Wolf pack #9: Pitchie, Brinn, Nienna
Wolf pack #10: Pitchie, Brinn, Nilp

So....I guess my top suspects are Greenie, Pitch, and Nilp, more or less in that order. (And I know, it's not clear how I came to that conclusion based on the above list but it kind of makes sense in my head so meh.)

EDIT: x'd with Nienna

[satansaloser2005]

++Greenie



Sorry, but I really have to leave. Wish I could discuss but there's simply not time. I'd recommend (obviously) a Greenie lynch or possibly a Pitch lynch. Either is fine with me, since I think they both have an equal chance of being a wolf.


*dashes off*

[Boromir88]

The only thing I'm banging my head over repeatedly is, despite our best chances ever to get a wolf now than any other day...with wolves so close to winning there is no doubt 1, if not 2, trying to steer our choice to an innocent.

It appears that's what McCaber was going to be set up for today, but to our fortune (or I guess mis-fortune now, at least we can defend him another night) our Ranger is revealed. But if I have this correct, if we guard McCaber, he will not be able to protect anyone, correct?

It still would be better to guard him, that way there is a known innocent the next day, at least I'm assuming now he is who he says he is as now everyone has seen the reveal and no one's countered.

Edit: crossed with Nilp, who wonders the same thing, and I agree.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Doing an analysis of my main suspect Sally--so many posts, so little content--when I realised this.

What do we do with McCaber? Do we Night Guard him, keep him alive for one more DAY, but keep him from protecting someone? Or not, and let him twist in the wind? Obviously it would be better to protect him if we do get a Werewolf lynched toDAY (try to get the remaining baddies kill an unknown instead), but we'll have no forewarning whether the one winning the vote is Werewolf or not . . . So we need to decide this now-ish.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Doing an analysis of my main suspect Sally--so many posts, so little content--when I realised this.

What do we do with McCaber? Do we Night Guard him, keep him alive for one more DAY, but keep him from protecting someone? Or not, and let him twist in the wind? Obviously it would be better to protect him if we do get a Werewolf lynched toDAY (try to get the remaining baddies kill an unknown instead), but we'll have no forewarning whether the one winning the vote is Werewolf or not . . . So we need to decide this now-ish.

Oh bugger, I'd forgotten about that.

[McCaber]

I almost don't want to be guarded. I've been doing a terrible job of analysis, and I think giving the village one day (or possibly two, if the wolves are tricksey like that) to sort things out would be the best.

And it seems that Greenie has been chosen. Let's hope she shows fur at nightfall.

[Nienna]

He's allowed to save himself so I'd say we should let him save himself and then pick someone to guard... that way there is a possibility, even if it is small, of the wolves being robbed of their kill.

Edit: wow... x-ed with a host

[Brinniel]

No joke? I had just come across one of her posts and was thinking "I wonder if Wilwa could be a....oh look, she's got a vote!" Awkward.

This line comes to be a bit strange. Not sure what to think.

I don't agree with Kit's reasoning for guarding Hakon. If she's innocent, it's not the best strategy (in my opinion it's better to protect people who aren't simply MIA, though I'm sure Hakon has a reason) although she does have a point about tendencies in wolf kills. (I actually guarded Mnemo because I know how unpredictable wolves can be if they like, so I don't put anything past anyone.) If she (Kit, that is) is guilty, however, there's a couple explanations.

It could be a throwaway on a packmate, thinking no one will follow her and so Hakon's activity won't get blocked. Dangerous, but you never know.
It could be a throwaway on an innocent, thinking no one will follow her and someone will believe the above. Makes a bit of sense to me, actually.
It could be an attempt to divert votes from a packmate (Legate?) so her furry friend(s) can kill at full capacity. Makes a lot of sense, but may be too obvious.
It could be an attempt to divert votes from someone she would like to kill toNight, a hope of getting people to vote Hakon so they don't try to protect X/Y. Also makes sense but wolves are flexible if they have to be so I don't like this one quite as much.
(By the same token maybe she thinks people will try to protect someone who's not been guard voted yet but who she thinks would be a usual choice. This theory could work for either of the last two.)

The thing is the I don't think a wolf Kit would guard a wolf Hakon and intend for him to actually be guarded; you can do your own maths on that one. So if Kit turns out to be a wolf down the line I'm going to say that either she's being tricksy or Hakon's innocent.

I still fail to see why Kit's guard vote looked so suspicious. Hakon could've easily been an early kill, and has been before.

That's the part I forgot to mention actually, though I'm sure you all realized it already. If we do at some point guard a suspect (and there are four wolves) if there are still two kills we know that person is innocent. So really it's like we've got an extra seer dream (sort of) every Night until we kill a wolf. Shiny, yes?

Either an innocent realising something brilliant or a wolf trying to look good.

Then she gives a lot of tallies and votes Kit at the final minute. I don't care about her reasons behind voting her, but the fact that she was just chilling giving tallies but no other contribution for the last hour still looks suspicious.

Told ya so. Just sayin'. (In regards to my poor dead duckling, that is.)

Interesting comment. It'd be clever for a wolf-Sally to try to save Mnemo then kill her in the Night.

I'm going out in a bit but think it is interesting that there was only one kill. Of course it could be that Legate's a wolf (LYNCH!) or the wolves could be trying to frame him. But I think the former may be more likely because you would think the wolves would want to get two kills in whenever possible. And besides, if we decided Legate was innocent they could always kill him toMorrow Night or something. So....I don't know. I'm too hungry to think. Back after supper.

Seems to be feeling out for opinions before making her own.

++Nienna (meh, might as well)

That was her guard vote. But I'm questioning what she exactly means by "might as well."

++Shasta

Wasn't really around that Day and this guard vote came out of nowhere.

Nog, here's our problem. I wouldn't mind being rid of McCaber either, but I think our options for toDay just became Wilwa and Hakon, thanks to Miss Brinn. So....yeah.

She says she can't vote for McCaber because of me, which I find weird. I still find her entire reaction to my vote that Day just odd behaviour.

I know it's a bit late in the game to be voting on feelings, but I don't have time to look through all the posts. I'm considering....a Wilwa lynch? (The thing is I don't know if it's me who came up with this in my head or if I'm just subconsciously going along with the discussion of Wilwa toDay. Maybe I'll look at her toNight and hope to be around to take care of her tomorrow. I've not decided yet.

Begins to hop the bandwagon, which is suspicious.

++Cabbie


Because I'm not likely to change my mind anyway. (Unless someone else starts looking really, really bad.)

Such an early vote on a critical Day looks very bad.

I flip flopped on Sally earlier, but now she's looking more suspicious than not.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

As for Greenie - she joined forces with my misguided effort to avoid lynching Zil, and voted to Guard me on the same Day (following Zil's example?). I don't quite know what to make of this. As a wolf who found me useful, she would have known I was in no danger of being Night-killed. So, Greenie, did you honestly believe we were right (as I did) ?

The Zil thing? Of course I believed we were right. Or rather, I did not trust the Zil wagon and since I had no real read on him I did not want to vote him but voted someone I found evil instead. Obviously I made a mistake about Zil, or at least failed to notice something others did. I guarded you because of the ones that had received guard votes you looked the most genuine to me.

I'm currently at a loss (surprisingly enough ) because my top suspects according to logic are Pitchwife and Nienna who both feel very innocent. Then again, my feel of people is often quite off and I think I'd rather trust my logic this time. It is a truly fatal Day. If we lynch an innocent, it's Game over. That is why I want to make a rational, well thought out vote that will (hopefully) contribute to the death of a werewolf.

Relating to that, I'm curious if the people who find me creepy have any reasons for that. I don't mind people being suspicious of me, as long as they don't lose us the game by lynching me, but I'd prefer to know why so that I can answer to those suspicions. Because, as we all know, the best way of finding out whether someone is really a baddie or just an innocent is actually discussing with that person. Just saying "She creeps me out" doesn't lead to any conclusions on the said person's identity unless lynched. By that time it's too late. We want to consider all options. We just really really can't mess this up toDay, which is why I don't fancy "S/he creeps me out" -style suspicions whether they are about me or someone else.


EDIT: x-ed with Boro, Nilp and Nienna

[A Little Green]

Thanks Nienna! That cleared things up a bit.

Lynch votes Nog and guards me but mentions that she isn’t throwing away her guard vote completely… this is odd.

The reasoning behind that was as simple as to guard-vote someone who has already received votes. It's no good if the votes spread out too much. You had already been voted and I thought you seemed innocent and sharp and thus ended up voting you.

Thinks that even though we can’t be certain of Nog’s guilt we should still pay attention to him … wolf trying to get another easy lynch??, then she doesn’t like Nerwen and her vote for Zil… it looks like she could be trying to get the heat off of her mate.

Well I still think that though Nog is now proven innocent it was rather alarming how people seemed to forget considering him as an option, since we had, at that time, no evidence whatsoever of his innocence. It would hardly have been pushing for an easy lynch, mentioning the possible wolvery of a player no one suspected. As for Nerwen's vote, my dislike for it was not due to who the vote was directed to but the fact that she voted Zil and pretty much said she hoped others wouldn't follow her in that. Voting someone without wanting others to do so too indicates to not really wanting the death of the person voted which makes me really curious as to why vote that person in the first place. Though Nerwen was innocent and Zil was a wolf I can still relate to that argument.

Originally Posted by Nienna

… this seems off to me… it seems like she is more concerned with their death than their role…

My bad if it seems like that. I'll try to explain. I suspected both Sally and Hakon, Sally a bit more, but I believed either could be a werewolf. If I believe a person to be a werewolf, I want that person to get lynched rather than someone else. Therefore, I was faced with the problem of choosing between my two suspects: one that I thought a tad more likely to be evil, and the other that had already received a vote so was a more likely lynch candidate. My point in re-explaining my thoughts on this matter is this: an innocent, if s/he feels a player to be guilty, wants that person to get lynched, because the lynch is pretty much an ordinary villager's only weapon in this game. Quite frankly I wanted either Sally or Hakon dead because I suspected them. If it seemed like I was more concerned about their death than their role I'm sorry to have seemed so. But, at that moment I had already made some sort of vague conclusions about their roles - so in a way I was, at that point, concentrating on getting one of them killed. Am I making sense?

Moral of the Story: I'm pretty sure she's a wolf.

I'm not a wolf. I can't, however, expect you to believe that. In any case that's quite a heavy conclusion compared to the arguments in your analysis. It's also not an argument, so it can't be answered with one. What you say is a subjective statement I cannot answer in any possible way; what I say is a subjective truth I can't prove to anyone.


EDIT: x-ed since my last

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Boro

Her comment about Pitch reminds me of the same thing, a vague throw away comment about something important she had to say about someone, but then forgot.

Honestly now, I hope that even in games where I've been a wolf I haven't been that dishonest! Wolf or no, my brain has a regular leak in it, and I forget stuff all the time. (Again, an argument I can't expect people to believe.) I really think it would be rather unsporty to pretend to have forgotten an argument in order not to have to invent one in the first place, and I don't like it that people actually think I would do that.

Originally Posted by McCaber

And it seems that Greenie has been chosen. Let's hope she shows fur at nightfall.

Has been chosen?!? One person has voted for me this far. There are eight people in this village. I certainly hope I haven't "been chosen", because, quite frankly, that would mean we've lost the game. I don't even understand why people have nailed me up as a lynch target. I'd understand if I had behaved in a way that would have made me look like a wolf. Yet I haven't seen one single argument against me that actually holds water! This stinks of wolf. An innocent simply doesn't vote without valid arguments on a decisive Day like this. At least I hope so.


EDIT: x-ed with Nilp, McCaber, Nilp and Boro

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

I really think it would be rather unsporty to pretend to have forgotten an argument in order not to have to invent one in the first place, and I don't like it that people actually think I would do that.

Chill, I never said you do it, because you don't feel like making an agrument against someone. I know you are very capable, wolf or not, of making your own arguments.

I'm saying it reminded me of something to did towards Nilp as a wolf, and that first time I fell for it thinking you had gifted information.

[Nienna]

I am not a wolf. Sally voted early because she had to leave. She said so many times and you were (and still are) the most suspicious person in my opinion so her voting early doesn't seem weird.

[Boromir88]

Thanks Brinn.

Now the big issue. If we guard McCaber we are assured of a known innocent tomorrow. However, if we don't get a wolf today, and guard him, then it's over. If we don't get a wolf today, and don't guard him, he can protect someone, but the wolves will most likely kill him...which means it's over anyway.

So, I say we guard McCaber.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Boro

Chill, I never said you do it, because you don't feel like making an agrument against someone. I know you are very capable, wolf or not, of making your own arguments.

I'm saying it reminded me of something to did towards Nilp as a wolf, and that first time I fell for it thinking you had gifted information.

Fair enough. Though I must ask - if you don't think I say I forgot an argument on purpose, then why is saying so a sign of wolvery? Or, do you think a wolf-me would come up with a ploy such as "I'll say I forgot an argument and they'll take me for a gifted"? Quite frankly (and this, again, is an argument I can't in all fairness expect you to take in) it wouldn't cross my mind to think that way! My mind doesn't work in ploys, whether innocent or wolf. I can't spot them in others and certainly can't use them myself.


EDIT: x-ed with Nienna, Pitch and Boro

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nienna

I am not a wolf. Sally voted early because she had to leave. She said so many times and you were (and still are) the most suspicious person in my opinion so her voting early doesn't seem weird.

I never said her voting early seemed weird. What I find weird is who she voted and on what grounds. She hasn't posted any argument against me except for "she feels creepy" or something like that. I trust you won't hold a grudge if I don't beileve your first sentence. I can't have proof about that, and what logic I have points against you.

Originally Posted by Boro

Now the big issue. If we guard McCaber we are assured of a known innocent tomorrow. However, if we don't get a wolf today, and guard him, then it's over. If we don't get a wolf today, and don't guard him, he can protect someone, but the wolves will most likely kill him...which means it's over anyway.

So, I say we guard McCaber.

That makes sense. If we lynch an innocent toDay the game is over whether we guard him or not. If we lynch a wolf, though, we'll have a known innocent toMorrow. Therefore:

++ McCaber


EDIT: x-ed with Brinn, Eonwe, Nienna, Nilp and Boro x2

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Fair enough. Though I must ask - if you don't think I say I forgot an argument on purpose, then why is saying so a sign of wolvery? Or, do you think a wolf-me would come up with a ploy such as "I'll say I forgot an argument and they'll take me for a gifted"? Quite frankly (and this, again, is an argument I can't in all fairness expect you to take in) it wouldn't cross my mind to think that way! My mind doesn't work in ploys, whether innocent or wolf. I can't spot them in others and certainly can't use them myself.

It was more of when I saw it, I thought Nilp, and how I fell for it, and you wound up to be a wolf. My memory is just as faulty, you could very well say the same exact thing as an innocent, but since that time I went after Nilp, because of your comment, and was proven fooled, it's the incident that sticks out in my memory.