Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Nogrod]

To get this done early enough even in a provisional form (subject to changes as I have time to read on), so just a feeling of it right now...

Greenie - I'm just scared... She's too careful and good in this.
Boro - As I've said earlier, I'm a bit in doubt about his kind of soft suspicions which look like probing around but if they are time-issues I could understand them.
Brinn - The enigmatic ever innocent even when a wolf. I suspected her on the first Days and now am torn - the option of Kit being killed because she voted for her "out of the blue" kind of bothers me though... We'd need to cross-index a few things I think... Also I don't believe Brinn honestly believes in Shasta's "psychic powers" so her vote to guard him looks dubious indeed as the wolves would love to guard a non-participator.
Hakon - looks the foulest but I'm not sure if he feels like it. His last apology looked genuine...
McCaber - I could vote him but I'm afraid that an evil McCaber would have been more active...
Nerwen - Looks very good so far even if I suspected her as well on the first Days (and especially the fact that everyone trusted her) - so have I fallen victim to her charms or am I right?
Nessa - Facing modfire so let's skip her.
Nienna - Feels better than foul.
Nilp - Torn with him, really. Makes good points and is very active... well normally (being innocent) he is quite flegmatic, so?
Pitchwife - Very sensible but just because of that suspicious. So on top of things that it hurts sometimes But really an innocent we shouldn't lose - and a wolf we should get rid of immediately until further harm is done...
Sally - Has gotten better lately but has also been suspected more lately as well - so that's natural. Her end of the Day actions look really suspicious (just sitting back and relaxing on one Day posting tallies, voting for Shasta-guard at the last moment to tie the guards for the dice-roll yesterDay etc.).
Shasta - Probably innocent as it looks he couldn't care less... Well bad if one joins a game with that attitude but anyway he's in this game and we need to work with that fact.
wilwa - A tough call. Really good - and thence frightening.

[Pitchwife]

Direct answer to Nog about my Shasta Guard vote:
In addition to what I said earlier toDay: OK, maybe he wasn't a very likely wolf target - but then again, you never know; anyway, I felt it was time to use the NG as it was meant to - i.e. to keep alive somebody we feel is innocent, not to test and safeguard people we have second thoughts about (as I had about Nerwen at the time). And unlike you, I like to keep those who haven't said that much around and give them a chance to improve.
I like your assessment of me in your last post very much, by the way; now could you please make up your mind?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Direct answer to Nog about my Shasta Guard vote:
In addition to what I said earlier toDay: OK, maybe he wasn't a very likely wolf target - but then again, you never know; anyway, I felt it was time to use the NG as it was meant to - i.e. to keep alive somebody we feel is innocent, not to test and safeguard people we have second thoughts about (as I had about Nerwen at the time). And unlike you, I like to keep those who haven't said that much around and give them a chance to improve.

To keep alive someone you think innocent but who does not play? Do you think the wolves kill the "dead load" during the Nights? So if the "testing" was over, why didn't you try someone who actually plays? I mean even if you are a bit indecisive with those who talk a lot there is chance of reading them as the Days go by. With those who don't play you only have to guess.

Some might say that's a difference of opinion but if you think about it it's a question of good for the village and bad.

Originally Posted by Pitchie

I like your assessment of me in your last post very much, by the way; now could you please make up your mind?

Hard to say at the moment... but glad you liked it. It's actually true.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitchie

So what should the wolves, according to my reasoning, do? Hardly bring the suggestion up themselves, but support it when it came up, and then find a way to circumvene it.
So, assuming the actual wolves were thinking remotely like I was thinking as a hypothetical wolf, it would make sense to look for them among the supporters of The Plan, wouldn't it?

Well given your premises, yes. But your premises I'm afraid just don't hold...

It feels stupid to argue this stuff again but I'll try to make it short.

Clearly Mnemo's plan was good for the village. Even you admit it in a way in your post there. And the reality has kind of underlined that.

And there was no real danger. The village would have NG'd Kit the first Night and the ranger would have taken the next one - no need to give up names of innocents during the way or the ranger declaring s/he's doing her/his job. And on the next Night vice versa...

A rival claim would have been dealt with double protections until toDay (or yesterDay) and then we would have called for a list from both seer-candidates...

Much better than what we have now - and even if looking at it from the perpective of Day1 above the probabilities otherwise I'd say.

[Nogrod]

And the point of my post was?

Well the wolves would have liked to oppose the plan rather than take the risk that the village would have chosen to support it - and Kit had been persuaded...

[Pitchwife]

Nog, I never said The Plan was bad. Remember I supported it? Remember I said the same things you're now saying to me to McCaber a few posts ago?
What I'm saying is, The Plan was so good I thought everybody could see it was good, so everybody arguing against it would make themselves suspicious. Hence the wolves - at least some of them - might have found themselves driven to support it, although The Plan itself was bad for them, to make themselves look good. Whether I was right assuming so is another question, but that is what I meant.

EDIT: typos and tense corrected.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

What I'm saying is, The Plan was so good I thought everybody could see it was good, so everybody arguing against it would make themselves suspicious. Hence the wolves - at least some of them - might have found themselves driven to support it, although The Plan itself was bad for them, to make themselves look good.

For some reason many thought it bad... and that suited the wolves more than well! So why not help the suspicion against the plan? You're right in that a wolf might have taken the other side to look good but I think it's much more probable that the majority of the wolves liked to join the opposition - just for their own good as they could also be in the majority at the same time... The question only remains whether they built that opposition themselves as a majority-view or whether the villagers helped them to do that?

But that answer prolly should wait for toMorrow as we have a lynch and a guarding to discuss in half an hour's time...

But why I discussed this was that I thought your evaluation of it being more probable to find a wolf on the opposing-side to the plan I think is dead-wrong.

[Nogrod]

Tally, anyone?

Sally, anyone?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Tally, anyone?

Sally, anyone?

Coming right up, Master Nog!

[Nienna]

I'm leaning toward voting Hakon or McCaber to lynch... I'm hesitant to jump on a bandwagon but they really are acting suspicious.

Wilwa, Sally, and Nog seem alright to me.

[Nogrod]

We've lost Mnemo, Kit the Seer, Legate and Lommy so we probably can't afford losing too many "independent talkers"... The wolves will love to do that for us.

Also if the modfire takes one or two from our ranks in numbers in the next Day the more important that becomes methinks.

Those who talk can also be heard, read and evaluated, even if we disagree on the grounds of that evaluation - but that's what this game is about!

[Hakon]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Brinn - The enigmatic ever innocent even when a wolf. I suspected her on the first Days and now am torn - the option of Kit being killed because she voted for her "out of the blue" kind of bothers me though... We'd need to cross-index a few things I think... Also I don't believe Brinn honestly believes in Shasta's "psychic powers" so her vote to guard him looks dubious indeed as the wolves would love to guard a non-participator.

Nog, one thing that makes her look innocent is the fact that Inzilawolf voted for her.

Alright it is about twenty minutes to deadline and I have to go now. I will put in both my votes. This is hard for me since it seems everyone is leaning towards lynching me. Although the truth is only some of you are. Sally, you are great at twisting words. Reminds me of my mother. Very bad talent to have.

The people who I am most suspicious of are Nerwen, Pitch and Boro.

Nerwen because she starts these bandwagons and something is just off about her. I know none of you are going to vote her but she might be a wolf.

Pitch, this entire game you have come off as innocent. I have only seen you play the role of a gifted before and you do not come off as innocent. This leads to believe that you are a possibly a wolf. Since it is just too innocent.

For Boro I just think that Eonwe would pick him to be a wolf. That is it.

++Nilp He has had some good ideas. Worth keeping around.

Voting for any of the three people I find suspicious won't get anywhere. So how about I use my vote on Wilwa. She is suspicious just not as much as the above three. And it would not be a waste of a vote.

++Wilwa

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Hakon

Nog, one thing that makes her look innocent is the fact that Inzilawolf voted for her.

With no real threat to make her actually lynched... Just what a wolf would love to do.

Originally Posted by Hakon

Nerwen because she starts these bandwagons and something is just off about her. I know none of you are going to vote her but she might be a wolf.

I don't think I wish to especially defend Nerwen but it looks like some of us don't know she lives in Australia and that puts some restraints to her timetables with the rest of us. So let's be fair on that.

Funny you think another wagon-starter / early-voter, namely Nilp, you think innocent enough to guard the coming Night...

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nog, re: Brinn and Dun

With no real threat to make her actually lynched... Just what a wolf would love to do.

Exactly.

Originally Posted by Nog

I don't think I wish to especially defend Nerwen but it looks like some of us don't know she lives in Australia and that puts some restraints to her timetables with the rest of us. So let's be fair on that.

Thanks for pointing that out. I meant to mention earlier that just because people vote early doesn't mean they're evil; it may be time zones at work.

[satansaloser2005]

Obviously I prefer Hakon or McCobbler to Wilwa. I'm almost tempted to go for Cabbie toDay and leave Hakon for later, but Hakon seems darker to me. Bah! I can't make up my mind!


EDIT: x'd with Nog

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

I meant to mention earlier that just because people vote early doesn't mean they're evil; it may be time zones at work.

And it doesn't mean they're good...

[Nogrod]

Okay, looking at the vote-getters I'd like to see Wilwa still alive as she has been a most productive person - and go Days - it would be harder for her to look good all the time.

What Hakon just said - and his relation to Brinn might actually open up some new vistas of understanding... even if I do suspect McCaber as well. But maybe McCaber is just too lazy to be a wolf?

[Nogrod]

++ Hakon

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Okay, looking at the vote-getters I'd like to see Wilwa still alive as she has been a most productive person - and go Days - it would be harder for her to look good all the time.

What Hakon just said - and his relation to Brinn might actually open up some new vistas of understanding... even if I do suspect McCaber as well. But maybe McCaber is just too lazy to be a wolf?

Nog, here's our problem. I wouldn't mind being rid of McCaber either, but I think our options for toDay just became Wilwa and Hakon, thanks to Miss Brinn. So....yeah.

++Hakon


EDIT: x'd with Nog, who obviously agree. Count is now Hakon 5, Wilwa 3

[Nienna]

I do not like Hakon's vote for Wilwa and I actually don't know where this suspicion is coming from. I'd rather see Hakon lynched.

++ Hakon

and

++Guard Sally

because she is making a whole lot of sense.

Edit: x-ed with Brinn... bah. I don't know if I like that vote for Wilwa either...