Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Have we forgotten the fact that Kit voted for Brinn with “bad reasons”. Could that be the reason of her downfall on Day1? Have we asked ourselves of the possibility that she had dreamt of Brinn on N1? It’s interesting she got killed and turned out the seer… so she was right in there?

Brinn would be one of the top candidates for dreaming and making such a vote (in a sense grounded but then again not) would be a seerish way of leaving a hint.

Good point– and I believe everyone had forgotten. There were so many distractions, plus Wilwa made such a very convincing case for the dream being Mnemo.

Interesting, that.

[Nerwen]

Anyway, I have to go.

Good night and good luck.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Boro

I'm also not liking how wilwa's name keeps popping up in the middle of shady activity, like the Day 1 stuff between her and Mnemo, and Mnemo is now dead. Now her name being the only repeated one in the two NG votes.

How is the Day 1 thing between me and Mnemo shady? We were technically right in thinking it was a good idea, were we not? And if my name was the only name to show up in both of the lynchings I would get how that would seem suspicious, but how does that work for me showing up in both NG votes? I thought Legate and Nog were both good to keep around, and it just so happened everyone else did too, don't see the shadyness there.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Have we forgotten the fact that Kit voted for Brinn with “bad reasons”. Could that be the reason of her downfall on Day1? Have we asked ourselves of the possibility that she had dreamt of Brinn on N1? It’s interesting she got killed and turned out the seer… so she was right in there?

Brinn would be one of the top candidates for dreaming and making such a vote (in a sense grounded but then again not) would be a seerish way of leaving a hint.

Hadn't thought of that. Mnemo was the one she seemed to mention most and her back and forth with her (seeming to suspect but then defend her right after) just stood out for me, which is why I brought that up yesterDay. But of course it could have been someone else, maybe even someone she never mentioned. I had listed all her posts yesterDay so maybe I'll go back and re-read them, see if I can think of any other possibilities. Though Brinn does make sense as well.

Have to run off again, but should be back soon.

x'ed with Pitch and Nerwen, interesting points Pitch

[Brinniel]

One thing I realised about this one-kill thing. Not only do the wolves prevent known innocents, but they are forcing us to change our strategy. If the wolves had done two kills, we would probably continue the strategy of guarding those who are suspicious to figure out their role. That means if those we suspect and choose to guard turn out innocent, the wolves lose potential lynch targets. Once those suspicious innocents are cleared, the wolves become much easier targets, especially if they are acting suspicious. But now since we can't know innocents, that strategy cannot work. So perhaps because a wolf (or more) was considered suspicious they decided to do the one-kill so that suspicious innocents who could be lynched would not be guarded and then cleared.

I should look back and see which players were attracting some suspicion in the previous Days. Right now, only wilwa and Inzil come to mind.

[wilwarin538]

So I re-read all of Kit's posts again. Her guard vote for Hakon could have been a hint that he was her dream, but I'm not really sure about that. Her Brinn vote doesn't sound like she had dreamt of a wolfBrinn. Her post about wanting to see a red flag that read WOLF, but then saying that didn't happen, still sounds to me like she was saying she didn't dream a wolf. The fact that she was so strongly against The Plan, in my mind, strengthens this. Plus she kept mentioning "Mnemo and Wilwa's conversation" but then would never mention me and just concentrate on Mnemo, who should talked about quite a bit and who we now know was innocent.

I don't know. It's tough because I don't want to just throw away Kit's posts as being unimportant, but it really doesn't seem like there's anything concrete in there. The only people she mentioned were me, Mnemo, Brinn and Hakon. Out of the four it seems the most likely dreams were Mnemo and Hakon. And then of course she may have dreamt of someone else all together, which of course doesn't give us any info.

As for who I'm going to vote for. I'm tempted to go with Inzil, since I've been fairly suspicious of him since yesterDay, I may go back and re-read all his posts. I think I'm also going to take a closer look at Boro (after what Pitch brought up).

[A Little Green]

Okay, I'm here at last! First some comments on toDay, then probably the list I promised already yesterDay.

Originally Posted by Nilp

Well, we got one good thing out of yesterDAY. Nogrod shall be innocent until proven guilty.

How's that? While I agree with the consensus that we can't derive from the one kill a conclusion that he's guilty, we can't overlook the possibility either.

Originally Posted by Nerwen (underlining mine)

++Inziladun. It's sort of out of him and Wilwa for me at the moment.

I don't like having to vote early each Day, but DL comes at a really bad time for me. Please don't everyone just pile on my vote this time! There are a good many other people that need looking at, notably Sally, Nilp and the ones who have hardly been around– Nessa, Brinniel etc.

I don't like the underlined part. It looks like resigning from the responsibility if Zil is lynched and turns out to be innocent. If you don't want others to vote for him, why vote for him yourself? It always gives me the creeps to see someone do that: pick an easy lynch target (and Inziladun surely is that, given that he's been suspected by quite many people), then vote, and end with a wish that others don't jump on it. If you suspect a person, you want others to vote him too!

List coming up. I also think I had something to comment on from yesterDay, but really can't remember what it was. Maybe I'll go and check.


EDIT: x-ed with Wilwa

[A Little Green]

CREEPY:
Nerwen - Generally she gives me good vibes (but she can be such a smooth wolf that that is no evidence I guess) but there have been a few things that disturb me about her. Her toDay's vote I commented on in my previous post, as well as a post of hers from yesterDay (I will look at that after this post) have made me uneasy.
Nogrod - Aaaargh. I still suspect him to some point, though he's been improving lately. His conduct, the way he seems to be decidedly of the opinion that an opinion differing from his own is less well thought of, makes me uneasy about him, because (like I believe I said on Day 1) an innocent needs to look at things from every possible perspective. And, on top of that, there is the NG thing. Now, I agree that no roles can be derived from the NG stuff, but it would just strike me as very odd that the wolves would let their advantage pass for a second time in a row (but then, I didn't get it the first time, either...)
satansaloser2005 - She is another I wanted to look at from yesterDay. There have been several things to make me wary of her, including her near-deadline behaviour on Day 1 and the post from yesterDay where she seemed to assume that Legate is innocent. I'll take a look at her if I have time.

NO IDEA:
alonariel - Well she'll be dead soon, won't she? Not much to say, therefore.
Brinniel - I'm so bad at reading her! She seems innocent, but she seems so every single time I play with her, regardless of her role.
Inziladun - No read.
McCaber - Likewise.
Nessa Telrunya - Who?
Pitchwife - I have a vague memory that I had something to point out about him but can't remember what it was.. So far I really can't say.
Shastanis Althreduin - Completely under my reindeer.
wilwarin538 - It would seem somehow too obvious if she was a wolf. Yet I have to admit some of the arguments against her do hold water. A difficult case.

CUDDLY:
Boromir88 - Hmmmmm. I've been sort of trusting him all along and am worried by that I don't even consider him a possible wolf. Nothing alarming this far, though.
Hakon - I disagree with him on many points but he seems innocent.
Nienna - No alarm bells.
Nilpaurion Felagund - Seems innocentish.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

satansaloser2005 - She is another I wanted to look at from yesterDay. There have been several things to make me wary of her, including her near-deadline behaviour on Day 1 and the post from yesterDay where she seemed to assume that Legate is innocent. I'll take a look at her if I have time.

Missed that post. Which was it? (there were so many )

[Inziladun]

As I've said, I have no wish to vote for Nogrod this time. He certainly can't be considered totally innocent, but neither is he clearly wolfish.

Finding a wolf today is most imperative, as the double-kill option ought to be taken from them immediately.

I'm tempted to vote for the Fool toDay. I find his little-explained obsession with me somewhat disconcerting, and looking past the clever haikus and absurd quips might lead to something darker.

But...let's try this.

++ Brinniel

Just a feeling, with some comments from others for fuel.

++ Guard Pitchwife

He's made some good points. Could be valuable.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Just a feeling, with some comments from others for fuel.

What comments? I think I've missed something...

[satansaloser2005]

Sorry, got stolen away from the computer last night as I was starting on my analyses (yes, plural) so I'll finish the first three and then catch up again.


Also, fish.



EDIT: x'd with Greenie