Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Maybe he means "2-3 wolves apart from the guarded wolf".

Okay, that might make sense... but why - well anyway why - to make that comment as we all know that even a lonely wolf can kill unless DG'd?

Odd, to put it mildly...

[Boromir88]

Why are we wasting time on debating this? Alona will be killed at the end of the day the wolves will have one kill. Once we find alona's role then we may learn something from it.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Once we find alona's role then we may learn something from it.

What may we learn from finding out the role of somebody who hasn't played at all, and whose being modfired, whatever her role, won't affect the number of kills toNight? I'm puzzled.

When analysing the Guard bandwagons, it's well to think about possible set-ups, but let's not forget that at least some people will have used their Guard votes as they were originally meant to be used, i.e. to keep alive those we think innocent, while others used the Guard as a test and some probably voted with both aspects in mind (I know I did).

For now, I've got to eat and then work on another two tombstones. See you later.

P.S. Have I mentioned yet that it feels really good to be alive on Day 3 for a change? Wonder how long that'll last...

[Nogrod]

On a different issue...

Originally Posted by Boro

I think it would be wise to check the Nogrod guard votes from yesterday. There was a pretty good wagon there and if the wolves were looking to set him up, as they did Legate, maybe check the Legate guard votes from Day 1?

Thanks Boro! I started reading the thread from the beginning but it felt totally unfocused and futile in a way; I mean too many things to focus on and surely no one wishes to read (or make) a short interpretation about all that has happened. But I had forgotten that no one had done that and it would be interesting indeed. As I said yesterDay already the sudden bandwagon of guarding me felt quite creepy. So let's see whether there are common denominators there with the two NG-wagons as it seems the wolves wished to frame those protected with their one kill tactics. We all know that with Legate and I do know it from my part as well.

Originally Posted by Boro

Why are we wasting time on debating this? Alona will be killed at the end of the day the wolves will have one kill. Once we find alona's role then we may learn something from it.

I don't see it as a waste of time. If it is true that Alona is a wolf my target for toDay changes radically. With one wolf bagged and the double-kill threat lifted I'd focus heavily on the quieter ones because we could then afford it at this stage of the game. If it's not true, we'd need to focus on those we can actually say something based on actual words and deeds which means our more active players, which is always so stupid because it gives certain people free-rides to make their mischiefs in the end...

So to me at least this is important.

But I won't be arguing about it the next hours as I have work to do eg. looking back at the NG-wagons.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So to me at least this is important.

Fair enough, for me I don't see the purpose because Eonwe has repeatedly said he's not giving any mod hints, maybe it was a slip, but why blow it up to that extent? Did you really expect something like "Yep, you got me, I made a slip."

Oh well, I will ask you as now I do think it's relevant, how would knowing alona's role now change who it is you go after? Alona hasn't said anything.

NG Votes for Legate (Day 1):

Brinn
Nerwen
Shasta
Nogrod
Lommy
wilwa

(Italics be the dead innocents)

NG Votes for Nogrod (Day 2):

Greenie
Pitch
McCaber
wilwa
Nessa
Inzil
Hakon

That's interesting, the only repeated name is wilwa. I would also like to point out from Pitch on down to Hakon was just pretty much a large guard Nogrod wagon. With Legate there really wasn't a wagon, it was pretty split between guarding me or Legate.

Not sure if that says anything, but I think those who specifically said they were guarding Legate to figure out whether he was a wolf look pretty suspicious (who they are I can't tell you off the top of my head, I'm actually going to have to go back and look...which means hopefully it will come later).

I'm also not liking how wilwa's name keeps popping up in the middle of shady activity, like the Day 1 stuff between her and Mnemo, and Mnemo is now dead. Now her name being the only repeated one in the two NG votes. Or maybe that just means we have wolves who are trying to distance themselves from eachother and spread out? hmmm

[Boromir88]

Ahh, and I'll be away until 2 or 3-ish my time, so there best be some real good analysis that I can come back to.

And ye wolves were probably most unwise to leave me alive this long ha, I gave you the chance to kill me early when I was exhausted. Now the fire's been lit and it will be most difficult to lynch me, you'd be sure to regret it because it would be your end.

[wilwarin538]

Hmm.. the thing Eonwe said about Alona is a bit weird, I don't completely understand what's happening there. But I agree with Boro, it'll be easier to talk about this once it's actually happened, if she's just an innocent then it doesn't really mean anything, if she's a wolf well then there we go.

I have to run off again for a bit, in a few hours I should be able to sit down and contribute more.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Not sure if that says anything, but I think those who specifically said they were guarding Legate to figure out whether he was a wolf look pretty suspicious (who they are I can't tell you off the top of my head, I'm actually going to have to go back and look...which means hopefully it will come later).

Make a distinction, though, between guarding to test and guarding to neutralise.

Anyway–

Lynch:

++Inziladun. It's sort of out of him and Wilwa for me at the moment.

I don't like having to vote early each Day, but DL comes at a really bad time for me. Please don't everyone just pile on my vote this time! There are a good many other people that need looking at, notably Sally, Nilp and the ones who have hardly been around– Nessa, Brinniel etc.

Guard:

++Boro.

Because he's looked quite good so far, and might be a target.

EDIT:X'd with Nogrod.

[Pitchwife]

*pops back in briefly*
Boro, although I found him looking good earlier and would much prefer still finding him so, is starting to worry me a little bit, now I look at him a little closer. Reasons:

• says Inzil feels wolfish quite early, for what seem to me very flimsy reasons;
• supports Mnemo's plan, though cautiously;
• says he can't see the wolves wasting a night-kill to frame somebody, and
• thinks McCaber needs watching for suggesting they might;
• concurs with Nog's suspicion of Lommy;
• suspects Kit (which persuaded myself at the time) and votes her;
• argues for lynching Legate, dismisses Legate's defense that he was framed (see above!), and votes him;
• hasn't said anything notable about the fact that Leg was indeed framed, and says Nog is still suspicious because of the one kill.

Taken all together, this looks somewhat creepy.
And now he threatens the wolves it would be their end if they got him lynched? What's that supposed to mean?

Maybe Nerwen needs looking at too because of the interaction between them, although I really liked the part she's played so far.

Anyway, I'll have to leave you for now.

[Nerwen]

*Also pops back in briefly*

Ah, well, those are all rather good points, Pitch. As I said, we need to stop concentrating on one or two people.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Nilp, I'm really impressed with your work both yesterDay and toDay; seems we have an idiot savant for our village fool!

Indeed. Beneath his lunatic caperings lurks a cunning mind. Who knew?

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Nogrod would certainly be a candidate for such a role, but I'm very much against lynching him based on the outcome of his being Guarded.

I'll not cast a vote for Nogrod today. I agree with him that there are others deserving of some scrutiny, especially some that have largely escaped notice in the events of the last two Days.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

And now [Boro] threatens the wolves it would be their end if they got him lynched? What's that supposed to mean?

I took his words as meaning they'd regret not killing him when they had the chance.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Oh well, I will ask you as now I do think it's relevant, how would knowing alona's role now change who it is you go after? Alona hasn't said anything.

I guess I answered that already but maybe I need to do it again.

It's not about Alona, it's about there not being four wolves any more and thence no threat of double-kills. That being the case I'd suggest we'd turn more to the quieter ones for lynches as we can afford it now better than later (we can't just leave them be quiet the whole game and only hope they will be on our side) - but with the chance of double-kills on us we probably need to search from the more vocal people as we need to get one wolf down and quick and with the submarines it's throwing a dice.

The problem being that those more vocal could help us (or can be caught more easily) later unlike those who just shut up.


I need to go and make some dinner etc. but here's a few things that started to bother me as I went reading things over Day1 & 2.

Have we forgotten the fact that Kit voted for Brinn with “bad reasons”. Could that be the reason of her downfall on Day1? Have we asked ourselves of the possibility that she had dreamt of Brinn on N1? It’s interesting she got killed and turned out the seer… so she was right in there?

Brinn would be one of the top candidates for dreaming and making such a vote (in a sense grounded but then again not) would be a seerish way of leaving a hint.

Anyway our discussion of the Kit-voters died down pretty soon as everyone (me included) focused on Legate.

I mean to me it was odd Kit was lynched. Her reasons for voting were not the best ones but not the worst either. So how come she ended up at the gallows? If she was right with Brinn there would have been people eager to send her there...


Also I was actually thinking much better of Wilwa re-reading Day1 but looking at Boro's list on the NG-votes makes me think it again.

Sally makes me worried as well...


I'll try to elaborate a bit later and hopefully have some more solid to bring forwards.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Have we forgotten the fact that Kit voted for Brinn with “bad reasons”. Could that be the reason of her downfall on Day1? Have we asked ourselves of the possibility that she had dreamt of Brinn on N1? It’s interesting she got killed and turned out the seer… so she was right in there?

Brinn would be one of the top candidates for dreaming and making such a vote (in a sense grounded but then again not) would be a seerish way of leaving a hint.

Good point– and I believe everyone had forgotten. There were so many distractions, plus Wilwa made such a very convincing case for the dream being Mnemo.

Interesting, that.

[Nerwen]

Anyway, I have to go.

Good night and good luck.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Boro

I'm also not liking how wilwa's name keeps popping up in the middle of shady activity, like the Day 1 stuff between her and Mnemo, and Mnemo is now dead. Now her name being the only repeated one in the two NG votes.

How is the Day 1 thing between me and Mnemo shady? We were technically right in thinking it was a good idea, were we not? And if my name was the only name to show up in both of the lynchings I would get how that would seem suspicious, but how does that work for me showing up in both NG votes? I thought Legate and Nog were both good to keep around, and it just so happened everyone else did too, don't see the shadyness there.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Have we forgotten the fact that Kit voted for Brinn with “bad reasons”. Could that be the reason of her downfall on Day1? Have we asked ourselves of the possibility that she had dreamt of Brinn on N1? It’s interesting she got killed and turned out the seer… so she was right in there?

Brinn would be one of the top candidates for dreaming and making such a vote (in a sense grounded but then again not) would be a seerish way of leaving a hint.

Hadn't thought of that. Mnemo was the one she seemed to mention most and her back and forth with her (seeming to suspect but then defend her right after) just stood out for me, which is why I brought that up yesterDay. But of course it could have been someone else, maybe even someone she never mentioned. I had listed all her posts yesterDay so maybe I'll go back and re-read them, see if I can think of any other possibilities. Though Brinn does make sense as well.

Have to run off again, but should be back soon.

x'ed with Pitch and Nerwen, interesting points Pitch

[satansaloser2005]

Sorry, got stolen away from the computer last night as I was starting on my analyses (yes, plural) so I'll finish the first three and then catch up again.


Also, fish.



EDIT: x'd with Greenie