Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Pitchwife]

OK, as long as nobody else is talking, here are my thoughts on Lommy's death.
Apart from being against The Plan on Day 1, she heavily defended Legate on Day 2 and voted for Zil, the only other candidate who got any votes. Again, her confirmed innocence also confirms she had good motives in doing so. If there is a wolf among the Zil voters, Lommy's death would make them look better. On the other hand, if Zil is a wolf, what would the pack accomplish by confirming one of his voters as innocent? Nothing I can see. This looks suspiciously like a plan to frame Inzil next.

This is assuming that we deal with a cunning pack acting really deviously, instead of just going "She voted one of us, so we kill her for it", which would be just too blatantly transparent. I'm pretty confident that we have at least one strategic mastermind among the wolves.

Nogrod would certainly be a candidate for such a role, but I'm very much against lynching him based on the outcome of his being Guarded. The whole idea of using the NG as a test of innocence, brought up by myself with some help from Sally and Nog (and wisely cautioned against by McCaber and the late Legate himself), has backfired really abominably, so let's by any means not base any more lynchings on this!
What's interesting is that Nog's prime suspects up to now were Legate and Lommy, both now known innocents. If he was a wolf, he'd certainly not confirm somebody he suspected publicly as innocent by killing her, thus painting himself suspicious. On the other hand, her killing may be a wolvish attempt to frame Nog, rather than (or in addition to) Inzil.

So I'm inclined to think both Nog and Zil rather innocent at the moment, and I'm also inclined to look for the majority of our wolves among

• the supporters of The Plan and
• the Legate bandwagon.

In other words, they're safely hiding in a huge crowd. This won't be easy.

(x-ed with Nerwen: good point about wilwa.)

[Pitchwife]

Nerwen, I don't quite get it - on the one hand my theory is rather complicated, on the other hand it requires a newbie pack??

Thanks for reminding me of Mnemo's wilwa vote, which I had neglected. wilwa certainly needs a close look, especially as Legate also voted her on Day 1. She was rather quick to latch on to Mnemo's suggestion on Day 1, and also argued very much for lynching Legate on Day 2.
Makes me wonder about Nilp's motives for voting to Guard her on Day 1, especially as he was among the Zil-voters yesterDay (see my above on that).

[Nienna]

I cannot stay long as I am helping with the furniture acquiring but I'd like to throw a few thoughts in.

McCaber is worrying me a little at the moment as are Zil (nothing new really), and Nilp. I can't really place my finger on what what is worrying me about Nilp though I believe he bears closer watching. Nog also seems to be acting much different than I've seen him play before. I believe I have only seen him as an innocent so that worries me a little bit.

I agree with what's been said that we cannot use the NG thing as a main reason for lynching but this does not mean that Nog is innocent either.

When I get back later I will look at voting things.

[Nogrod]

Looking at the wolves' picks I do find one thing in common with Mnemo and Lommy. Namely they both made a more or less powerful case had we followed them we would be much better off. So they maybe thinking "if they are able to bring that good ideas forwards now they may be able to excel also later on" and thence silenced them.

Like spreading terror around: speak wisely and you're dead...


On another note. I'm afraid we're approaching some really hard decisions.

We have an urgent mission which is to get the first wolf so as to remove the threat of two Night-kills from over our heads asap. Was it not for that, I would start now a real campaign for checking out our more quieter fellows rather now than later when it becomes next to impossible to do it.

But this situation just highlights the problem with the "submarines". We have four people with posts from zero to six thus far. How do you differentiate between them? How do you make a judgement about one being groundedly more suspicious than the other? And if they continue like that the situation will never change and it will always be a hit in the dark just hoping for the best - and the wolves rarely kill them as they can be a kind of "dead load" we can't be decide anything about but are not helping us either...

Because of that, I usually suggest we try our luck with those rather earlier than later in the game, but sadly I'm afraid we do not have that luxury this time with the double-kill sword hanging on top of us.

So we just have to succeed toDay.

I'll get into rereading the thread and it may take time. Hopefully it pays off even a little.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

If there is a wolf among the Zil voters, Lommy's death would make them look better. On the other hand, if Zil is a wolf, what would the pack accomplish by confirming one of his voters as innocent? Nothing I can see. This looks suspiciously like a plan to frame Inzil next.

This is assuming that we deal with a cunning pack acting really deviously, instead of just going "She voted one of us, so we kill her for it", which would be just too blatantly transparent.

Ah, but from the point of view of this travel-worn bard, it's so transparent that the village would probably not believe an entire pack would do something that obvious– and the wolves should know this. Makes me wonder if it could be a double-bluff. (Alternatively, the wolves really are playing dumb.)

Contrast this to my argument on the Mnemo kill. In that case, Mnemo had a theory about Wilwa's guilt which she had yet to reveal. That gives a Wolfwarin a real motive for killing her. By the same token, it gives the wolves a good chance to frame an innocent Wilwa. (As I recall, no-one seemed to be following up on it yesterDay, however.)

I wonder why Mnemo acted as she did? Saying, "I've got this theory about why X is a wolf, see you tomorrow," is pretty much the definition of "asking for it". You'd think the wolves would be afraid she was the Hunter. I'd almost say that clears Wilwa– except that your friendly travelling minstrel once voyaged on a ship whose crew thought wolves would never risk killing a Hunter who suspected them. The results were not pretty.

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

What's interesting is that Nog's prime suspects up to now were Legate and Lommy, both now known innocents. If he was a wolf, he'd certainly not confirm somebody he suspected publicly as innocent by killing her, thus painting himself suspicious.

That's what you think. (I'm not saying it's evidence of his guilt, you understand, but I don't think it tells us anything either way.)

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Nerwen, I don't quite get it - on the one hand my theory is rather complicated, on the other hand it requires a newbie pack??

I didn't say it requires a newbie pack (when does that ever happen?) just that it would be an odd move for anyone else (unless, as Wilwa suggests, they're trying to look inexperienced). By "complicated" I meant the double-assumption aspect.

EDIT:X'd with Nogrod.

[Nogrod]

Even if Eönwë has posted this is the admin thread I think we should actually understand this here.

Originally Posted by ModGod

If alonariel does not vote toDay, she will be modfired. As stated in the rules, this means that the wolves will only get one kill toNight. Logically, this would mean that whether the person who is guarded toNight is a wolf or not, they will still get their kill (there will be 2-3 left).

So are you saying that Alonariel is a wolf???

[Boromir88]

Very short day for me today again...too much on my platter at the moment, but I will say...

Nogrod, just because there was only one kill again last night, doesn't mean you are now automatically innocent. That one kill still makes you look suspicious in my eyes, the difference is now we know not to lynch someone based on those reasons alone. I'll be watching and waiting for your slip, be afraid, be very afraid.

I wonder if I can read through before I have to leave?

Oh and this is going to be a complete flip-flop from what I said about Nogrod, but I think it would be wise to check the Nogrod guard votes from yesterday. There was a pretty good wagon there and if the wolves were looking to set him up, as they did Legate, maybe check the Legate guard votes from Day 1? That's all I got to offer right now, my apologies for bumming around.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So are you saying that Alonariel is a wolf???

No, he's not - why would he tell us? He's merely saying alona will be modfired whether she's a wolf or not (i.e. he's not making any Teflon wolf exceptions to the modfire rule). The Rules state that if somebody is modfired, the wolves will get only one kill that Night, even if there would have been two kills otherwise. He's trying to make it fair for us, so we won't lose three innocents at once, if an innocent is modifred. And if alona is modfired as a wolf and we Guard another wolf, there will still be one kill (by the remaining wolves).

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

The Rules state that if somebody is modfired, the wolves will get only one kill that Night, even if there would have been two kills otherwise. He's trying to make it fair for us, so we won't lose three innocents at once, if an innocent is modifred.

Thanks, Pitchy, I missed that.

Okay, Steve's out of the Most Careless Mod stakes.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

Even if Eönwë has posted this is the admin thread I think we should actually understand this here.

So are you saying that Alonariel is a wolf???

Well, I can't think of anything else it could mean, can you?

I was just going to say, it would be a great joke if the pack consisted of Alona, Hakon, Nessa and Pitchwife, and what we've been seeing as some impenetrable masterplan is just the result of them being fairly inexperienced.

EDIT: X'd with Boro and Pitchwife.

[Pitchwife]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

I was just going to say, it would be a great joke if the pack consisted of Alona, Hakon, Nessa and Pitchwife, and what we've been seeing as some impenetrable masterplan is just the result of them being fairly inexperienced.

That would be very funny indeed - even more if we actually managed to win that way against you veterans! (And NO, that was NOT a confession, of course!)

Nog, isn't it obvious? If alona is a wolf, and is modfired, and we Guard or lynch a wolf, there will be 2 wolves left. If alona is innocent and modfired, and we Guard or lynch a wolf, 3 wolves left. So whatever alona's role, when she's modfired there will be 2-3 wolves left (unless she's innocent and we don't Guard or lynch a wolf -> 4 wolves left, but according to the Rules only one kill). What happened to your logic?

(x-ed with several Nerwensand Nogrods , and Boro.)