Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

My point was that, of course, as long as us villagers keep lynching the Night Guarded innocents, then NO Wolf would get lynched (as you can see from my above examples).

As I said, your examples assume that no wolf is ever Guarded.

EDIT:X'd with Shasta.

[Nerwen]

Look, I hate to leave you all so soon, but I have to go and tune my lute.

Lynch:

++Legate of Amon Lanc.
Yes, you put up a wonderful defence and all– but still, I think we need to see what you are.

Guard:

++Inziladun.

Because he jumped on my vote on Kit, and he's been creepy toDay. (I'm for Guarding suspicious people if there's no-one better, at least while there are still four wolves around.)

EDIT:X'd with Nienna.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

But your argument also nullifies it, doesn't it?

Okay, not sure in which way.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Only if the guarding (and subsequent lack of a kill) was the only reason for the lynching.

And speaking of my case then, was there any other? At least I got the feeling yesterDay that most people thought that I am likely innocent or okay if nothing else, after all that's where these guard votes originally came from. In fact, there is NO OTHER CASE against me than this Night incident. Or at least none that I am aware of.

Originally Posted by Nerwen

As I said, your examples assume that no wolf is ever Guarded.

I am aware of it and I said it already, but that's the point of examples, isn't it? I said that it won't work like that in reality in at least two posts, of which one case was when I replied to you saying the same already once, so I am not going to repeat it anymore. You should just understand the point, I am not saying that it works like that all the time. But it's just an explanation of what it means for the Wolves, that it's not a loss for them AT ALL to forgo a kill on a Night when an innocent is Guarded (emphasise for you). Which is just what happened to me, by the way. Like I already said.

Anyway. I am going probably to have a break for a while, as I have said what I could right now to the topic, and unless somebody asks something specifically new about it, I would leave it be. Everybody can read any of my posts, if he or she is more interested in the details or if it seems unclear to them.

My MAIN points are as follows.

1) The Village should heed this (the things I said) if I die. (That doesn't mean, though, switching to the other extreme and letting it just a free ride for everybody. But the Wolves are pressured, and will have to do something soon, unless you just confirm to their rules.)
2) I am innocent, and saying that it makes no sense for the WWs to forgo one kill in case that I am innocent is faulty, as if I am lynched, then they didn't lose anything by that. (3 dead innocents and no dead Wolf by any chance, from their point of view they know whether the Guarded one is innocent, so they can choose based on that)

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

And speaking of my case then, was there any other? At least I got the feeling yesterDay that most people thought that I am likely innocent or okay if nothing else, after all that's where these guard votes originally came from. In fact, there is NO OTHER CASE against me than this Night incident. Or at least none that I am aware of.

*shrugs* It's an experiment, Legate. And actually some voted to Guard you in part because you seemed somewhat suspicious, and they wanted to neutralise a possible fourth wolf.

Look– if you're innocent, your death should give us some leads, at least. I'll certainly be looking very hard at people who pushed for it. Besides, don't panic– there's a lot of talk, but you've only had one vote so far.

Farewell, gentle villagers! I'll return to serenade you all if time permits.

I suggest we start discussing other possible wolf candidates. There are four wolves, after all.

EDIT: X'd with Legate.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

But the Wolves are pressured

Pressured? With four wolves and no Seer? I don't get it. (You'd almost think one of the wolves was on the block or something. )

Seriously, I suppose you are referring to the prospective accumulation of known innocents? Well, yes, they're a threat to the wolves, but they can't be defended by the Ranger forever. And whenever the Guard has to join in the defence of a known innocent, why, then the wolves can't frame anyone by missing a kill.