Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Ok, I was just a bit confused there. But my previous comment still (for the most part) makes some sense.

Yes Legate is making some wonderful points that do make quite a bit of sense....but still. I'm very weary of leaving him around because even though what he says makes sense, it just doesn't seem as probable to me.

Yes, wolves love causing chaos, yes they would love to be able to have some control, and yes they don't like having known innocents all over the place. But the only way they win is by dwindling our numbers down to match there's, and each Day they keep even one more of us alive is another Day they risk getting lynched. Only one of them needs to die for them to lose the double kill, I think they would take advantage of the opportunity as much as possible for as long as possible.

This all reminds of one game where someone thought we should lynch a person being modfired. Practically everyone was against the idea of losing that lynch oppurtunity (since that's the only way for us to kill wolves), just like I'm sure the wolves wouldn't want to give up a kill (since they need to get our numbers way down from 18 to atleast 4).

x'posted since Nerwen

Now you have not either read my point through or are misinterpretating it intentionally. The Wolves would actually be in BETTER situation, if it went EVERY DAY like this, then - let me show an example:

Killing one person per Night:
Day 1 - Lynching a Seer. Wolves:villagers 1:0
Night 2 - Innocent is guarded and Wolves decide to gamble and kill only one person. Wolves:villagers 2:0
Day 2 - Villagers now decide to lynch the guarded one. Wolves:villagers 3:0
Night 3 - Again an innocent is guarded and the Wolves kill just one person. Wolves:villagers 4:0
Day 3 - Villagers now lynch the guarded one. Wolves:villagers 5:0

And so on.

WHEREAS

Killing two people per Night:
Day 1 - Lynching a Seer. Wolves:villagers 1:0
Night 2 - Innocent is guarded and Wolves decide to kill two people. Wolves:villagers 2:0
Day 2 - Villagers now have one definitely known innocent and choose somebody else to lynch, whoever that might be. It may even be a Wolf. Wolves:villagers 3:0 or 3:1 if a Wolf is lynched, plus one Innocent is known. (So let's call it 3:2 for the sake of making score.)
Night 3 - Again an innocent is guarded and the Wolves kill two people. Wolves:villagers 4:1(2)
Day 3 - Another innocent is known (if the former innocent was guarded, he is still alive), and today the village has its hands free to lynch another Wolf. If they do, it's Wolves:villagers 4:2(+the village has two known innocents, so if we give them points for that, then 4:4!!! And the ratio is getting rather bad for the Wolves. Count it whichever way you like, I hope it's clear what I am trying to say by this.)

Just try to imagine all this situation from the point of view of the Wolves, as that's what is important. Why would they decide the way they did - because it's the best for them. If the village reacts in the way they expect (lynching the guarded person), they get ONE MORE DAY, when they don't have to fear of themselves being lynched at all.

So sorry, wilwa, but your example is flawed.

(I am repeating still the same thing in a bit different words.)

Originally Posted by Nerwen

What if the villagers keep to the tactic of guarding likely wolves– and they guess correctly? Even once might do– according to the lore they taught me in Minstrel School, a wolf generally leaves trails to his packmates– we could take it from there.

Surely. But just anyway - imagine that the Wolves have to decide in a situation when an innocent, and not a Wolf is being guarded (which is just what happened). What can they choose? I believe this is obvious.

And I agree, I said that it's not of course granted that Wolves don't get guarded and subsequently lynched. But then, if they see the danger coming towards them (like that it seems that several of them are under suspicion or possibility of Guard, or such). And just statistically, it's (I believe, I am no mathematician) more probable for a WW to be lynched during a normal lynching than guarded and then lynched, especially if there were several cases of innocents being guarded before, or such. Also, if people use the Guard function to guard Wolves, they nullify its second positive value, which is to protect somebody they want to have around as being useful to the village.
But the Wolves, creating such a confusion, mainly, would make it that it would effectively nullify the Night Guard as a means of discerning somebody's guilt or innocence, that's the main point. Of course I don't believe it would just be possible to have a game where the village just keeps going like a programmed machine, guard a person, then after the Night lynch the same person, and so on - people will change their tactics at one point. Just note, btw, that that is just what is happening to me right now.