Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I think it would be more likely that the wolves would want to capitalize on the extreme luck re: the Kitanna lynch by using two kills rather than giving up one and framing Legate (can they even do that? Mod?) in my opinion.

Also, when did we start not having Seers?

...what do you mean there's been one in every game? I don't recall the last time -

...what do you mean they consistently die off Day/Night One? Surely the village wouldn't be so silly!

...what do you mean, "go back and look"?

[Brinniel]

Yeesh, twice now I have left Day One early only to return to find the seer dead. Surely we learned after last game...but no? Looking back at yesterDay, that Kitanna bandwagon seems off. I actually can't really see why she looked so suspicious. Those who participated in the bandwagon deserve a closer look. I wouldn't be surprised if at least one or maybe two wolves were involved.

So either Legate is a wolf or he's been framed, as others have already stated. Lynching him, there's the risk that we could be falling into a wolf trap...but then again, I think it could be even riskier to let him live if he is a wolf. I'd hate to have a wolf in our grasp, then just let him slip through. That's sort of how we lost last game. I can't really see why the wolves wouldn't want to take advantage of having two kills. Wouldn't they want to maximize the number of deaths while they can?

Btw, did Nessa or alona show up at all yesterDay? I see they didn't vote, but I can't recall whether they even posted or not. Also, any reason why you didn't vote to guard someone, McCaber and Nilp?

I would take a look at the Kit bandwagon now, but it's late and I need to go to bed shortly. If no one has done it yet, perhaps I'll do it tomorrow if I have time.

EDIT: X-ed with Shasta and Nilp (who already seems to be doing a Kit analysis)

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Because I didn't see anyone I'd like to keep alive.

I'm killing myself, why should y'all be protected?

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I think it would be more likely that the wolves would want to capitalize on the extreme luck re: the Kitanna lynch by using two kills rather than giving up one and framing Legate (can they even do that? Mod?) in my opinion.

Also, when did we start not having Seers?

...what do you mean there's been one in every game? I don't recall the last time -

...what do you mean they consistently die off Day/Night One? Surely the village wouldn't be so silly!

...what do you mean, "go back and look"?

I love you. That is all.



So I thought I'd have more time to work on Werewolf tonight but I've gotten some unexpected stuff to do and I'm really rather tired. I'll be back tomorrow and will be around a lot more a couple hours before deadline.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Guard tally with preliminary analysis.

(Time reckoned from the start of the DAY, known innocents underlined, known baddies emphasised, person/s in the lead bolded.)

. . .

. . .

. . .

I've decided not to run with it. You know why?

When we analyse the lynch vote we know at the end we'll get the identity of the 'winner', from which we can deduce intentions of those who cast votes for that person or the runner/s-up. In this case, however, we can't say for certain if the 'winner' is innocent or guilty, except if the Wolves do a double-kill (which they didn't!) Despite heavy prejudice for Legate's guilt, we still can't say that for certain.

However, the tally will become more useful once we get a Werewolf, since it's an additional form of interaction, from which we can deduce intentions. But that means first we have to get a Werewolf. Which the Guard tally will not help me with.

(Erm, anyhoo, does anyone know if the tie-breaking mechanism here is random or not?)

Postpartum possums. One gem from the Guard tally muck: I think Hakon is innocent.

[Pitchwife]

*shows up with his head heavily bandaged after a night of banging head against the wall*
Dang! Dang! It's happened again! Why didn't I heed my cousin's warnings? He told me the Seer might look wolfish at times... Now we know why Kit was jittery about The Plan, but it's too late. We should have known better.
About my Guard vote for Boro - he was on my shortlist for Guarding all the time from my #107 yesterday, I just had to pick one of them, and he seemed as good as any. As for Legate, his comeback post yesterDay soothed some of my doubts about him, so I didn't find it quite as urgent to Guard against him as a wolf. Nevertheless, I'm glad he got the majority, as the outcome is certainly interesting. But right now, I'm too confused to think straight about it.
I think I'll have to see Shasta for some Middle-earth equivalent to paracetamol. A few hours of quiet work will do me good, too. Any suggestions as to the epitaph for Kit's tombstone?
See you all later.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Vote time, I guess. My brother wants the comp soon.

It's either wilwa (to trace a connexion to Sally or Lommy) or Inziladun (possible Kitanna bandwaggon starter) for me. But since wilwa is speaking more sense:

++Inziladun

And:

++wilwarin538.

I hope to be back in a few hours, but don't count on it. *mutters rebelliously about 6am DAY deadlines*

[Thinlómien]

Just a quick comment right now - I can't see what the wolves would have gained by intentionally leaving out the kill and framing Legate. Made sure an innocent is lynched on Day2, sure, but why not kill an innocent during the Night and try to get another innocent lynched the next Day? Why would they not maximise the destruction?

Okay, I can see two options, neither of them being very probable:
1) they want Legate especially killed. Since they can't suspect him of seerdom, I can't see a reason why would they want him dead so badly that they would leave out a kill because of that.
2) they are messing with our heads on purpose (I have a theory about this, but I'm not sure if it makes sense, so I won't post it until later if I find out it makes sense - I would need to think about it but I won't have the time or the enthusiasm right now).

So, it would be the most logical option that Legate's a wolf. And to me, his post from toDay does look like that a bit - I think an innocent would react differently, he's too calm and calculated and nice. But I will refrain from giving final judgement until he comes back, but right now I consider him guilty until proven innocent.

Now, off to comment on stuff.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

can they even do that? Mod?

Yes. if they wish to, they can only kill one person at Night.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

(Erm, anyhoo, does anyone know if the tie-breaking mechanism here is random or not?)

And yes again. If there is a tie in votes for lynching, the person to die will be selected randomly.

[wilwarin538]

Here and reading.

[Nerwen]

Back. Reading.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

If Legate's not a wolf, Wilwa might well be.

Hmm?? Don't see the connection.


So I still think that there is no way the wolves would have given up that extra kill. Yes it messes with our heads, which I'm sure they enjoy, but it doesn't really benefit them in a solid way. So they want Legate dead? Well they could have just killed him toNight, they wouldn't of had to set him up for us to kill him. They could have gotten two innocents last Night, plus (statistically) we probably would have lynched another innocent toDay. It's so early in the game, and they are but 4 people hidden among 18 that there is no way they were soooo scared of getting lynched that they resorted to setting him up. I'm not at all convinced of that. They're ability to kill 2 at Night will only last for so long, since we will eventually get a wolf, and they know this. They wouldn't have given that up purely just to confuse us...we usually confuse ourselves fairly easily on our own nyway.

Now, let's say I'm totally wrong and Legate is innocent. We'll still be further ahead. If they had done their 2 kills last Night and we instead lynched someone else toDay (who could have aswell been innocent), then we would have been down 3 innocents. But this way, we'll only be down 2. Or, he'll be a wolf, which is my guess. Really we are either gaining, or losing only a bit less then we could have lost if there had been a second night kill. Not really a win-win situtation, but it's definitely not a lose-lose.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Wilwa

So......I have to say I`m extremely dissapointed, we were given this amazing oppurtunity to get atleast 3 dreams known out of the Seer, and now we have nothing.

I can't say that didn't cross my mind too when I heard about the disaster of yesterDay (and really, I agree with Boro - no, no not AGAIN), but I'm not still ready to say I (or anyone else) should have had a different opinion, I don't think it would necessarily have worked (especially as Kit herself wasn't too enthusiastic, was she?) and I'm still not sure it'd have been fair.

Speaking of which:

Originally Posted by wilwa

the fact that she was quick to disregard both Mnemo's plan and Pitch's suggestion as being "unfair" really bugs me, since they both follow the rules perfectly, and therefore are completely fair

Being according the rules does not always equal fair in life (and breaking the rules does not always equal unfair, except maybe in ww ). But I simply didn't like Mnemo's plan, it didn't feel fair to me even though it was allowed by the rules. I can't recall Pitch's suggestion exactly (or rather, all the different guard-vote suggestions are melting into one mess in my head and I can't remember who said what) but I kind of wavered on whether that was just smart or a bit immoral. But anyway, I ended up guard-voting Legate mostly just to know his role, so I would consider the fairness debate on that issue settled for my part.

Anyway, I find it confusing that Legate was all talking about the benefits of finding out people's roles and even developing the theories - I think - and now he is what he is.

And I'm not so sure about Kitanna's dream. She could have dreamt of someone she didn't mention (playing it safe from the Night-kill point of view) or maybe even Hakon (planning to leave clues by guard-votes) or then Mnemo, like Wilwa suggested, because that makes the most sense but then again she didn't speak very seer-dreamishly about her, at least in my opinion. I hate to discredit the seer's only remaining posts - but probably she dreamt of Mnemo, who's dead, and if she dreamt of someone else, the evidence is not clear enough that we could use it, so at least in my opinion much can't be found out (which sucks).

And I forgot to both do it and say I'll do it, but I'll reread the rules now because I'm still a bit confused of some aspects of this game and maybe that could even shed light on the Legate "mystery"...

Wilwa is confusing me to the point that I'm wondering whether I voted to save a wolf on the last minute again. *facepalm* But then again, she's not really that bad, I'll wait and see... It's just something in her overtly energetic or eager manner that bugs me. She's sort of too quick to draw conclusions, which never is a good sign. But I doubt I'm going to lynch-vote her toDay anyway, because if she's innocent it'd be good to keep her around because she's really contributing a lot and she's smart.


edit: xed with Eönwë and wilwax2 and Nerwen

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

I am quite comfortable with being guarded, at least now, if it proves my innocence, for example (or if the Wolves want to bluff and save one kill, that's as good as that, but I doubt them trying that).

Just saw this. Thought I'd put it out there. It sounds funny to me.

[Boromir88]

As for Nilps point a while ago, that two kills would mean Legate was a known innocent. The wolves could have just spent the kill on Legate the next night, bye bye known innocent. But as we know that didn't happen.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

As for Nilps point a while ago, that two kills would mean Legate was a known innocent. The wolves could have just spent the kill on Legate the next night, bye bye known innocent. But as we know that didn't happen.

Exactly. So, I'm pretty sure Legate's gonna be our first wolf. Which will be lovely because we won't have had to ever experience the double Night kill.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

As for Nilps point a while ago, that two kills would mean Legate was a known innocent. The wolves could have just spent the kill on Legate the next night, bye bye known innocent. But as we know that didn't happen.

And our Ranger wouldn't have guarded such an obvious target?

I know we have to test such an obvious state of things, but please, consider the alternatives. For all we know they're just setting things up in case we guard one of their fellows. Like, we lynch an innocent now, and then when we get another one-kill NIGHT we roll our eyes and say, 'they're bluffing again.'

If you're so intent to shed Legate's blood then at least spend some time looking at other things. We had a full DAY's vote (save two villagers), we had someone propose a bold plan (and the supporters and detractors thereof). There are lots of other things to look at, village, and we're spending too much time scrutinising but a part of it. Think about that.

*fondly remembers the times he has been tied to the stake just to test theories*

[A Little Green]

Whoa. I wasn't expecting that. I wasn't that suspicious about Leggie yesterDay, but I've been thinking and really can't come up with any sensible reason for the wolves to let pass a Night kill for the sake of framing Legate. Sure, they'd like seeing an innocent lynched, but it just doesn't make sense that they give up their other Night kill for that. Therefore I'll probably vote Legate toDay. It's simply much more evidence against him than there is against anyone else, and if we let him live and he turned out to be a baddie I'd drown myself in a bucket.

And then there is this find of Wilwa's:

Originally Posted by Legate

I am quite comfortable with being guarded, at least now, if it proves my innocence, for example (or if the Wolves want to bluff and save one kill, that's as good as that, but I doubt them trying that).

Not sure if it's because I read it now that it seems like he's a wolf, but this looks like he was expecting only one kill last Night whereas everyone toDay seems more or less surprised by it. If he is a wolf, though, he'd have known there will only be one kill if he's guarded.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Hmm?? Don't see the connection.

Someone (can't remember who, too lazy to check) said that the wolves might want to frame Legate if one of their mates was in danger, and you had the second biggest number of votes yesterDay.


EDIT: x-ed with Wilwa and Nilp

I have quite a lot of stuff to do still today but I'll be more or less around from now on, or at least checking the thread at regular intervals.

[A Little Green]

So. I'll be off now to do some school stuff (bleurgh), I'll probably be back in some hours. You can expect a list from me toDay, featuring every villager.

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

And our Ranger wouldn't have guarded such an obvious target?

I know we have to test such an obvious state of things, but please, consider the alternatives. For all we know they're just setting things up in case we guard one of their fellows. Like, we lynch an innocent now, and then when we get another one-kill NIGHT we roll our eyes and say, 'they're bluffing again.'

Well yeah, the Ranger probably would have protected him toNight, but the wolves would have just gotten him the following Night. Known innocents never stay alive for that long, we all know that. But right now, so early in the game with still so many players and all the wolves, 1 known innocent is not that big of a threat to the wolves. Maybe on like Day 9 when it's down to 8 people or something, then I would understand. But now? No. The bluff isn't worth it, it doesn't get them any further ahead.

I also seriously doubt that, if they did give up the extra kill, that they would ever do it a second time, that would just put them way to far behind.

Anyway, I do agree that we probably shouldn't only concentrate on this one topic, despite how compelling it may be. I'm going to go take a closer look at the vote break downs that have been provided and see if anything stands out for me.

x'posted with Greenie x 2

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Someone (can't remember who, too lazy to check) said that the wolves might want to frame Legate if one of their mates was in danger, and you had the second biggest number of votes yesterDay.

Oh, k, thanks for the clarification.

[Boromir88]

And our Ranger wouldn't have guarded such an obvious target?~Nilp

Good point. But it also works against your argument.

That's the point, there are other gifteds. The seer is the most dangerous threat to the wolves, but they shouldn't get cocky. There are other gifteds, and other secret roles, which can turn out to be known innocents too. Too many known innocents is as much of a threat to the wolves as the seer can be. Ask Nienna about it, despite lynching the seer on Day 1, having so many potential known innocents at the end nearly ruined them.

I can see the wolves trying it if they need one lynch for a victory, but there's a lot of villagers, and still a lot of threats to the wolves, even if the seer is dead. If they want to play games and waste kill chances be my guest. But pulling a trick, just to frame an innocent because they are feeling good about fortune on Day 1 makes little sense.

If you're so intent to shed Legate's blood then at least spend some time looking at other things.~Nilp

Relax. I said that very thing in my first post, but I'm tired, I have school and other things I'm busy with, allow me a bit more time.

[wilwarin538]

Alright, well the only thing I really gathered from the vote tally was that Inzil's could be seen as a bandwagon type vote, but I don't think that's enough on it's own for me to really find him suspicious. Otherwise nothing really stood out, atleast nothing I haven't already mentioned.

So....I don't know what else to say. I may go skim through Day 1 again, see if anything pops out to me. I have way to much time on my hands today....

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

I know we have to test such an obvious state of things, but please, consider the alternatives. For all we know they're just setting things up in case we guard one of their fellows. Like, we lynch an innocent now, and then when we get another one-kill NIGHT we roll our eyes and say, 'they're bluffing again.'

If they did, they were giving up a kill solely in order to give them a possible advantage in a possible future situation. It can only pay off if we happen to guard a wolf while all four of them are still alive, and maybe not even then.

We can't of course, rule it out– people do silly things sometimes, so why not werewolves? I'm just saying, your particular scenario requires poor judgement on the part of the villains.
EDIT:x'd with Wilwa.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Okay, once again some brief responses and then let's see what else comes, if anything. Btw once again the discussion has shifted to rather one-sided "lynch Legate or not", which is of course understandable, but also it serves very nice to the Wolves, as nothing else gets done at all.

Originally Posted by Shastanis Althreduin

I think it would be more likely that the wolves would want to capitalize on the extreme luck re: the Kitanna lynch by using two kills rather than giving up one and framing Legate

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

Just a quick comment right now - I can't see what the wolves would have gained by intentionally leaving out the kill and framing Legate. Made sure an innocent is lynched on Day2, sure, but why not kill an innocent during the Night and try to get another innocent lynched the next Day? Why would they not maximise the destruction?

Originally Posted by Brinniel

So either Legate is a wolf or he's been framed, as others have already stated. Lynching him, there's the risk that we could be falling into a wolf trap...but then again, I think it could be even riskier to let him live if he is a wolf. I'd hate to have a wolf in our grasp, then just let him slip through. That's sort of how we lost last game. I can't really see why the wolves wouldn't want to take advantage of having two kills. Wouldn't they want to maximize the number of deaths while they can?

(And similarly many others.)

Well, why is it so unimaginable? Let's just see - the Wolves got a Seer, and they have TWO KILLS, more than they have in a normal game, which is BONUS for them now. Unbalance for their side is 2:1, and we have no Seer after yesterDay! And the yesterNight for them must be something like Day 1 for the innocents when it comes to losses - i.e. it's still early in the game, and I think for the Wolves missing one kill out of two could be compared to how do innocents feel towards lynching a fellow innocent on Day 1 (of course, if he's not a Seer). That is, okay, it's bad of course, but it's not that much of a pain in the end. And maybe it also saves them trouble for thinking of two kills, thus giving more grounds for suspicion, perhaps. (Though that's really just a minor thing that just comes on my mind, not a real reason.) And like pointed out above, it actually - at least NOW and TODAY in this case, from the looks of it, lets them make the innocents WASTE ONE DAY on debating about a false suspect.
Anyway, framing an innocent also means that they don't need to worry that one of them will be lynched toDay. Lynching is what would kill one of them, thus deprave them of their double-kills, and so actually (and maybe if one of them was under high suspicion and was likely to be lynched toDay?) it is even better for them to miss one kill on first Night to still ensure that they have two kills on next Night AND also a dead Innocent by Day 2, lynched, AND that also means that toDay they don't need to worry that much about voting, as many people will join the bandwagon anyway.
And also, as last possible reason, they could as well just do it to make fun of the village. If nothing else, if you lynch me, this will be what will be memorable for them on this game, whether they win or lose. I can for example imagine the likes of Nogrod enjoying stuff like that, for mere "sport".

So by the way, by the paraghraph above my last one I disprove of this conclusion by Wilwa:

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Now, let's say I'm totally wrong and Legate is innocent. We'll still be further ahead. If they had done their 2 kills last Night and we instead lynched someone else toDay (who could have aswell been innocent), then we would have been down 3 innocents. But this way, we'll only be down 2. Or, he'll be a wolf, which is my guess. Really we are either gaining, or losing only a bit less then we could have lost if there had been a second night kill. Not really a win-win situtation, but it's definitely not a lose-lose.

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Just saw this. Thought I'd put it out there. It sounds funny to me.

And speaking of her, not sure what's "funny" about that, more like, it makes it sound MORE unlikely that I'd be a Wolf, does it?

Anyway, I like wilwa less and less, given her "la-di-da" way of posting about me, trying to sound sometimes as if she's genuinely wondering whether I am really a Wolf, as if thinking really hard and trying to be just, but that just sounds too false.

And now this:

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Exactly. So, I'm pretty sure Legate's gonna be our first wolf. Which will be lovely because we won't have had to ever experience the double Night kill.

As if closing it up. Wonderful. Even if I am dead, then I would certainly hope then that you are going to be the first.

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

And our Ranger wouldn't have guarded such an obvious target?

I know we have to test such an obvious state of things, but please, consider the alternatives. For all we know they're just setting things up in case we guard one of their fellows. Like, we lynch an innocent now, and then when we get another one-kill NIGHT we roll our eyes and say, 'they're bluffing again.'

One sane point among all the people is this, the first sentence, and also the continued unfolded thought after that. It comes from the village fool - what does it say, Tolkien's point about those who seem to be the fools being sometimes the ones who are actually wiser?

[wilwarin538]

So a few things popped from yesterDay:

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

I certainly don't grudge either of them the protection, but what exactly makes them stand out from others who have talked as much? (Not meaning myself - I'm just an ordo, no use Guarding me.)

I don't really like the sound of this. Partly because the guarding isn't just to guard the gifteds, though they are the ones we'd want to keep around more, but it's also to try to protect someone who is very useful and has good ideas. Also, just the fact that he dubbed himself an ordo I don't like, I never like it when people do that, seems too faked. So I'm a bit uneasy about Pitch, but not in a "I'm gonna vote him" way, more like a "I'm gonna pay close attention to him" way.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

No? Blast. I was quite looking forward to it. Give us an extra one toMorrow. Just not one about wolves.
Can't say as I have anything solid at this point as regarding suspicions. However, I'll go ahead with this:

++ Guard Boro

I thought of Legate, but I'd like Boro to stick around another Day, and not get up to mischief if I'm wrong about him.

As for the lynch vote...

Think I'll have to go with Kitanna. I don't care for the reasoning of her vote on Brinn.

++ Kitanna

I don't understand what he's trying to say in the bolded part. I'd appreciate some clarification from him about that reasoning. And then the Kit vote does look overly bandwagonnish to me, but Inzil, like Pitch, is someone I'm more uneasy about, and not necessarilly suspicious of.

And from earlier toDay:

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

Anyway, I like wilwa less and less, given her "la-di-da" way of posting about me, trying to sound sometimes as if she's genuinely wondering whether I am really a Wolf, as if thinking really hard and trying to be just, but that just sounds too false.

La-di-da? I'm strongly leaning towards you being guilty, but just incase you are not I want to explore the explanations behind that possibility. To me it just seems so obvious, but I want to explore all of the possibilities anyway. I'm trying to be open-minded and fair, not flippant.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

By the way, one important thing that occured to me now. Just in case I am lynched or anything. The village'd better remember that.

If the village protects somebody at Night, AND there are two kills, the person will become a known innocent on the next Day.

What, then, logically Wolves would do? Kill the person on next Night. Though, if we have a Ranger, of course the known innocent will be protected. And he can be NightGuarded next Night. And so on. So...?

Please think about this in general, and not just about myself, if you don't trust me or something (because I now want to prove this point, mainly. Although of course, it also brings in a reason for the Wolves' behavior in my case - OF COURSE, as I am one of the cases, I am an innocent). But you may try to imagine yourselves in such a situation of being Night Guarded or something. Or imagine imaginary Mr. X. in such a position.

Actually, if we didn't think of that yet on Day 1, the Wolves maybe did think of that later at Night (more brains can put more thoughts together...), which could explain very well why they didn't make two kills either. Because they may just continue doing this until the Village realises that it doesn't work that way.

Because if the Wolves kept having two kills per Night, every Night will mean a) two dead innocents and b) one living known innocent being around. That will slowly turn into accumulating known innocents. Because: one ordo, Mr. A, is guarded at Night 2. Two kills happen that Night. Ergo, Mr. A is innocent. Ranger protects him on Night 3, and the village guards Mr. B, an ordo. There are two kills that Night as well. Ergo, by the next Day, the village has two known innocents, one of whom (Mr.B) may be guarded by Ranger the next Night and another (Mr.A) may be guarded by the Night Guard. Even if the village had nothing better, they could now have two known innocents alive for the whole game. It's a bit like the Seer idea that's been here yesterDay (and who knows, maybe that's where the Wolves realised this possibility of that what I just said could happen.

And with all humbleness, somehow I think that the Wolves would not like the idea of myself remaining as Mr. A, being alive for the rest of the game as a known innocent. So it was actually the choice of the Wolves: had they made two kills last Night, I would have been a known innocent for sure. And I could, theoretically, if the village decided like that, survive all the time.

OKAY! So actually I think I have it. See, I was thinking "on the run", but the more I think of it the more sense it makes. So actually, the Night Guard for the WWs is really BAAAD thing, as it totally ruins their plans, as long as they can kill at least two people per Night (thus can forgo one kill), it's ok, but as soon as they are reduced to three WWs and can kill only once per Night, it will become APPARENT that the protected one is an innocent (if there is a kill that Night), or then the WWs would have to deliberately miss a kill and thus not to kill anybody. So maybe the WWs can take the longer run - to be on the safe side - and let the Village do the work with them, by lynching innocents, while at Night the balance would be zero.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

La-di-da? I'm strongly leaning towards you being guilty, but just incase you are not I want to explore the explanations behind that possibility. To me it just seems so obvious, but I want to explore all of the possibilities anyway. I'm trying to be open-minded and fair, not flippant.

That sounds very fair, but just the way you happily scream "I am pretty certain that Legate will be our first Wolf!" when Boro agrees with you or such does not make it sound that good - or your thoughts, or approach, that consistent.

[wilwarin538]

So when it's down to 3 wolves, if the village protects a wolf they don't get a Night kill at all? Am I understanding this right? I had thought this only applied to when there was 4 wolves.

If that's true then that just strengthens my suspicion of Legate even more. They should be wanting to take advantage of the double kills for as long as possible, since later on they could be losing a kill sometimes. Not to mention if that happens later on then we know that whoever we protected would be guilty, and there's a wolf down. They're entire purpose is to get the village numbers down to equal there's, so they should be killing us as fast as possible. A few known innocents here and there wouldn't cause that big of a problem, atleast not this early. Maybe if they bluffed like this later on in the game when there's like 3 known innocents lingering around or something, but right now? No, I still don't see how that could benefit them enough to make it worth it.


x'posted with Legate, so I got a little excited, we lost our seer so early of course I'm excited at the prospect of getting a wolf toDay, and not having to worry about double Night kills is a relief as well

[wilwarin538]

hmm, Eonwe just posted in the Admin thread that if the Ranger is guarded by us then s/he can't protect anyone. That's a useful piece of info.

[Nienna]

If I am reading and understanding the rules correctly it would seem that while someone is under the village's protection then they can't do their role.

It would be like us taking this person and locking them in a room. The room is guarded and protected so the wolves can't get them but they also can't leave to go protect, hunt, kill someone.

So I'm thinking that since the wolves only get 2 kills if there are four of them then if one is locked up they only get 1 kill. If however there are three wolves and they only get one kill anyway then one locked up would only be like there were two wolves and they would still get a kill.

Does this make sense?

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

So when it's down to 3 wolves, if the village protects a wolf they don't get a Night kill at all? Am I understanding this right? I had thought this only applied to when there was 4 wolves.

No, only if there's one wolf the wolves don't get a kill at all if village guards him. Which is actually a good reason for them to try to remain in big numbers, as one lonely last remaining Wolf can be safely guarded just as well as lynched.

But if you read my post above, there is this another thing: if the wolves are down to 3 and they decide not to kill, then they of course get no kill that night.

But still they'd be able to survive on that, theoretically, of course. Not sure if it's technically possible for the WWs to wipe out the village in this way, as eventually the villagers would be forced to adopt a different tactic, but if the village keeps lynching innocents and the WWs get still two kills per Night (skipping one of them in order to make the village unsure as of the role of the guarded person), the WWs would eventually win. And they would win even if there were just three of them, of course, hypothetically again in a rather crazy scenario - but theoretically, yes (as the village would eventually wipe out its innocents, of course there might be wolves guarded too, but still it's somewhat "safer" for the wolves, at least they know who's going to be lynched next Day, and letting the village do the dirty work).

Balance ratio in case of four WWs present still in the game (tactics possible to adopt by the WWs since the very beginning):

1) One guarded person, WWs kill two people per Night: good for the Wolves, but known innocents start to appear (see my above post) and whenever there is a Wolf guarded, suddenly there is one kill less, which will of course immediately cause attention raising.
2) One guarded person, WWs kill one person per Night: the village is in total darkness and is forced to either lynch each guarded person on next Day, thus lynching (just statistically) mostly innocents and thus making it far easier for the WWs to survive, or then they have to do something else and just not trust anything. But still, whatever the village does, there is one dead innocent per Night, and together with the Day, very likely two, and no Wolf dead. It just makes the game a bit slower, but essentially controlled by the Wolves.

EDIT: x-ed since my last post. Yes, Ni, that's exactly it, correct.

[Inziladun]

I'll say one thing for Legate: he puts quite a bit of effort into defending himself, and seems adept at thinking like a wolf. Oddly enough, he finds comfort in that manic Village Fool, whose ire I've apparently drawn. Wisdom, or lamentable folly? Time will tell.
Though Legate does bring some vaild points, is there any way to be sure of him while leaving him alive?

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

I don't understand what he's trying to say in the bolded part. I'd appreciate some clarification from him about that reasoning. And then the Kit vote does look overly bandwagonnish to me, but Inzil, like Pitch, is someone I'm more uneasy about, and not necessarilly suspicious of.

My guard vote for Boro was a bit tongue-in-cheek, a reference to the past. Also, at the time I coudn't really see the push for guarding Legate, so I picked someone who seemed innocentish, and who I wanted to see make it to Day 2. The remark about keeping him out of mischief was more of a throwaway, but also an admission that I could have been wrong in trusting him.
And like I said, Kitanna's vote had a bad feel to it, and that with her Hakon guard vote made her the only one I really could see voting for lynching.
Speaking of Hakon, has he been here at all toDay?

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Nienna

It would be like us taking this person and locking them in a room. The room is guarded and protected so the wolves can't get them but they also can't leave to go protect, hunt, kill someone.

Precisely. That is a perfect explanation.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nienna

So I'm thinking that since the wolves only get 2 kills if there are four of them then if one is locked up they only get 1 kill. If however there are three wolves and they only get one kill anyway then one locked up would only be like there were two wolves and they would still get a kill.

Would wolves know their own capabilities best?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Legate of Amon Lanc

No, only if there's one wolf the wolves don't get a kill at all if village guards him.

Where in the rules does it say that, Legate?

I can find only this:

Originally Posted by Mayor Steve

The Werewolves: The "bad guys" of the game. There will be four of them. When all four are alive, they will be able to vote two players to kill each Night. Once one of the has been eliminated, they will only get one kill per Night.

And this:

Originally Posted by His Worship the Mayor

When a person is guarded, then cannot be killed by the wolves that Night. If the person is a wolf, they may not make any contact at Night with the other Werewolves (therefore they may not PM, and they will not be counted as a living werewolf for that Night

EDIT:Sorry, I get it now.

[Nienna]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Though Legate does bring some vaild points, is there any way to be sure of him while leaving him alive?

Nope. Sorry. You are next on my list too Zil. Just so you know.

Originally Posted by Eönwë

Precisely. That is a perfect explanation.

Thanks! I was thinking we could give the room a cool name. Sally could probably come up with something cool.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

Where in the rules does it say that, Legate?

I was thinking about this part:

and they will not be counted as a living werewolf for that Night

Though once again, I don't know. I thought I saw that somewhere there written, but maybe once again either I just concluded it myself from what I have read there, or then our noble Mayor has rewritten the rules in some way from then, but I don't know. Well I would assume so, also from what Mayor said just a few posts ago: locked in a room, one WW can't do anything, right?

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Nienna

Nope. Sorry. You are next on my list too Zil. Just so you know.

Ahh. So you intend to get me lynched instead of killing me at night.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I'll say one thing for Legate: he puts quite a bit of effort into defending himself, and seems adept at thinking like a wolf.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Would wolves know their own capabilities best?

Are you saying this to everybody?