Tol-in-Gaurhoth Threefold and Six: The Night Guard

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate

Anyway, as for other things. I only have to note that I am actually scared how exactly Lommy's thoughts reflect mine.

Great minds think alike.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I mean, on the other hand she says it's not a faultless plan (which it isn't) and thence it would be safer not to execute it. On the other hand she says it is unfair, even cheating, and it would be fairer not to do it.

Now whatever way you look at it you can come up with one message behind the conflicting scenarios: don't do it! And I tend to think the wolves would be the ones to face tougher choices if we did it. So...?

You can call me a conservative, but the idea doesn't generally seem like something I'd like to try and for both of the reasons, even though they are a bit contradictory. However, it makes sense if you think it the way that you wouldn't like to try a plan that feels a bit like cheating AND may not work at all. That's how I feel.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So let's not even discuss it? Why? For not realising it might be a good way to proceed for the village? Should we rather just rant and then vote randomly? It hardly fits your person Lommy... So why all this?

I said I DO NOT want random votes. I hate them. But there could be discussion about something else. And I just simply don't like the idea, it's not carefully enough thought through and it feels unfair, like I already said. I would feel the same way with any role, but I don't get why it makes me wolvish that I criticise it: I think it's rather the contrary, I think those who are the most eager to develop the ideas may be some people desperate to hide their fur.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So compare that to what Lommy and Legate say about us cheating a victory or having an inbalanced game...

have you been drinking or are you a wolf? You're just being way too aggressive to be a thoughtful innocent and it's kind of annoying me - because I quite clearly did say that I think the plan is too risky and it's a part of the reason why I don't like it. You even talked about me saying that. And now you're claiming I didn't say that. It doesn't make any sense.

I'm getting bad vibes from Kitanna, but I get that every single time I play with her. That's why I'm not enthusiastic about the bandwagon against her.

Originally Posted by Nogrod

If we protect Legate and there are two kills we know he's an innocent! Interesting... I hadn't thought of that earlier...

Not necessarily - unless Eönwë says something definite in the narrations, our ranger may just have made a save. But that's a very good point and it makes guard-voting possible wolves [(even) more] sensible.


xed with everybody

[satansaloser2005]

Nog: If it helps, last game I was an ordo and had top post count. I fluctuate, that's all. And I'm not a wolf so it hardly matters, does it?

[satansaloser2005]

Oh, and Lommie? Steve said he would indicate a save in the narration, so we would in fact know the difference.

[Nienna]

Zil worries me the most right now. He may get my lynch vote. His vote for Kit seems like a jump on a bandwagon.

and

++Guard Mnemo

reasons stated in a previous post.

[Thinlómien]

*tries very hard not to start suspecting Nogrod*

But I can just so perfectly see where Greenie is coming from. (And a double-patricide would be a lot of fun anyway. )

The problem is just that I think Nogrod probably is an innocent, even though he provokes my automatic wolf alarm reactions because he is disagreeing with me (not seeing completely valid points! and suspecting people like Greenie whom I don't suspect and feeling rather knee-jerk in that) and accusing me baselessly.

And now reading what I just wrote makes me suspicious of him. Blast.

*hurries off to make a quick list to clear her head before the DL*


edit: xed with all - thanks for clarifying Sally

[Thinlómien]

Feel goodish
Mnemo
Greenie
Cabbie
Legate
Sally

No idea
Nilp
Nerwen
Brinn
Boro
Inziladun
Wilwa
Pitch
Alona
Hakon
Nessa

Feel badish
Nogrod
Shasta
Kit

Won't have time to elaborate, and besides given that I have had almost zero time for ww toDay it wouldn't even be much, so that's it. I can elaborate on one though - I have a bad feeling about Shasta, he's too eager. But most of my bad feeling may be due to him disagreeing with me rather completely (not the least about my innocence ).

I'm starting to see the point in random votes... (Not really though, I just said that to make it clear I have no idea who to vote for. And the sooner I go to sleep, the better. Arg. Maybe I'll have a look at the votes that have been cast this far because to be honest I haven't paid any attention to the general situation...)


edit: mass-xed again

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Legate

That's very, very good point - makes me think good of McC - but of course (and I see that's been mentioned also), there is this fact that if there ARE two kills, we get a known innocent. (Who, though, btw, cannot be Night Guarded the Night after, so he's as good as dead soon - or maybe not? Because the Ranger can protect him, which of course is likely, unless he has some better person to protect.)

Hey, good point. So we should actually night guard someone we want to have as a known innocent? Although - risking the wrath of Pater Nogger - that seems a bit unfair to me too, but somehow not as bad as the seer tactic and given that the wolves profit from it too by getting a ready made kill list, it's maybe just fair. And there probably is some hole in this tactic, or possibly, but no time to think of it now! That's for toMorrow.

edit: xed again

[Thinlómien]

Oh sorry Nienna that just proves you're in my no idea category I guess...

edit: xed and would like to argue but not now

[Thinlómien]

Of the ones who have got votes this far it's be Kit or Nog for me... but the problem is that I can see myself being tricked to suspect either of them as innocent very easily...

++guard Legate

for simply wanting to know his role and because everybody seems to agree anyway so why not do it.

Nog, the explanation for the "not necessarily" is in the same sentence - not sure how did you miss that.

edit: xed with people

[wilwarin538]

Alright, have to say I didn't read to indepth, cause I was scared of missing the DL, which is in 5 minutes, right? I hope I'm not rushing for nothing.

So I'm tempted to vote for Mnemo just cause A: she didn't give to much of a reason, and B: basically everything I said so far was about the idea she came up with. But I probably won't, cause I don't like adding other people into the mix.

So I really really hate doing this, cause I didn't have the chance to read her posts as much as I would have liked, but I have to vote to try to save myself:

++Kitanna

And since Legate is so awesome:

++ Guard Legate

[Nienna]

Dear Village,

Slight fail on the lynching of our Seer. You are, however, redeemed in that we quite possibly have found us a wolf.

Love,
Me

Ok so I think it is worth lynching Legate on the very possible chance that he is a wolf. Many people voted to guard him yesterday because he was being somewhat suspicious. We also need to keep the kills down to one now that we have lost our seer so lynching a wolf will be in our best interest.

Twice the voting to be analyzed now.

[Boromir88]

Unbelievable, the seer gone again in Day 1? This is a joke, isn't it? Hopefully one of the hidden roles was a seer.

Ok so I think it is worth lynching Legate on the very possible chance that he is a wolf.~Nienna

I'd say it would be pretty stupid not to do it, but we shouldn't just vote and attend our other business. We have to make every day a productive day now.

I'm watching McCaber who pointed out the wolves may want to fake us out and only chose one kill, so we lynch the person we guarded the day before. Interesting theory, but most peculiar that McCaber points this out yesterday, Legate is guarded, and we awake with only one death.

For now too I feel good about Pitch who pointed out something in the rules that I overlooked. Usually that's a pretty good judge of someone's innocence, even though if wolves will read rules too, I doubt they would point out something like that which would only hurt them.

[wilwarin538]

So didn't actually have to go anywhere quite yet (had my times wrong by a bit), so here are all of our Seer's posts, and my personal commentary, aswell as some boldings I've made in the quotes:

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I suppose I need to abandon my hermit lifestyle for a while. *sigh*

(Mnemo quote was here, about her plan)

This seems like an ok idea, but eventually, probably sooner than later, the wolves can manipulate this. How do you plan to organize such an undertaking?

Edit: Eonwe clarified the rules...

Didn't seem too comfortable with the idea, but seemed willing to discuss it.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

This may seem like a good idea, but think about the innocents who will undoubtedly be put on the line. If the seer reveals him/herself and then reveals his/her dreams every day innocents will be revealed to the village, making them easy targets for wolves at Night.

And what if something happens to the ranger early on? Then we have the seer for two days and then it's curtains. If that happens early on, the village will have to go on without the aid of the seer's dreams. Plus by that point a few innocents will be vulnerable.

I understand her concerns here, but don't really agree with them, but from a Seer's perspective I can see that this would make sense. No hints to a dream here though.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I see the topic of discussion remains on Mnemo and Wilwa's conversation regarding the seer revealing. That's not surprising. Though I had hoped for a little more discussion, maybe a big red flag pointing to one of the villagers, declaring him/her "WOLF" in big letters.

However, that hasn't happened and I need to vote in the next twenty minutes. I get off work right at the deadline and there is no guarantee I can make it home at lunch to contribute.

I'm going back to ponder, but I'm thinking the chances of a random vote today are likely.

Her "big red flag" comment here now really stands out to me. I think this pretty much tells us she had not dreamt of a wolf, since she was hoping someone would be "declared" a wolf, and then said it has not happened. This would also make sense since she was against "the plan", if she had found out a wolf she probably would have agreed to it a bit more.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I went back and read Mnemo and Wilwa's conversation (and all posts that responded early on to it). Since this is the highlight right now it seems like a logical place to look for baddies. However, time is short for me so I'll make a few points quick and come home on my lunch break to finish any thoughts.


Mnemo is quick to declare this route this easiest, life in WW is never easy though. It doesn't feel wolfish, not so early, but that doesn't absolve Mnemo.
In answering my query on the idea Mnemo states that the seer has the choice to reveal. Another innocent move, but makes me wonder about Mnemo. However, nothing Mnemo has said screams wolf to me. I want to watch Mnemo over the next few days, but I have a feeling a wolf wolf wouldn't make a suggestion for a reveal so early, but would rather encourage the idea and thrive on any and all confusion.

I will return in a few hours to make a quick statement about Wilwa's role with Mnemo's suggestion and then a vote.

See here how she kinda goes back and forth between finding her suspicious and then not? Could be that she didn't want to blatanly say she was innocent, but then also didn't want her to look too suspicious. I think she may have wanted to bring forward all reasons why someone may find Mnemo suspicious, and then state a defense for it, perhaps to sway people away from voting her. If Mnemo wasn't dead and Kit still was I would have read this and probably thought Mnemo innocent. That is all of course just my own speculation.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I don't have the time toDay to read everything I've missed. But my guard vote won't be totally random. I was going to vote to guard Mnemo, but since she stirred up a lot of discussion she doesn't seem a likely Night 2 kill. Rather I'd like to guard one of those who haven't spoken yet. These sorts are usually kills early on because they leave no trail for the villagers. So that leaves Hakon and alonariel as the only two who have yet to say anything.

++Guard Hakon

alonariel gave a reason for being absent, but Hakon has said nothing.

This is where people started finding her suspicious. It was a very odd move. The fact that she was thinking of guarding Mnemo sort of, at least to me, strengthens what I said about the previous quote.

Originally Posted by Kitanna

I have about seven minutes to get back to work.

I've been mulling over the thread, trying to find something/someone who jumps out.

Mnemo and Wilwa both jumped out initially, but neither one feels particularly wicked. Of other, more vocal players, no one has said anything of note that I find over whelming suspicious. The only things I've seen that worried me are Mnemo's vote for Wilwa, but I think that's probably a time constraint thing, and then there's Brinn's vote for McCaber. She stated her vote would be somewhat random, but it surprises me she would pick someone who hadn't yet posted.

But I'm down to the wire and have to vote now. I will be more active on Day 2 because work doesn't fall on the deadline that day.

++Brinn

Kinda random, I don't care that she voted randomly for McCaber. That's something I would do, but she gave a reason that "he wasn't contributing" and that doesn't seem right to me. Granted my own reasons for voting Brinn aren't much better. However, I am at a loss for a real suspect.

Despite the suspiciousness of Mnemo's vote, she doesn't want to vote for her, and instead votes for someone with a not-quite-as-suspicious vote.


So there they are, with my thoughts. I feel that Mnemo was the most likely dream choice, but of course I could be wrong. She seems to be the only one she really mentions a lot.

Have to head out for real now, will be back in about 45 minutes or less with all of the duck's posts.

EDIT: Xposted with Boro, and removed highlight from Kit's vote

[wilwarin538]

Here they are. I left out a few of the random banter ones from the beginning. But I'm pretty sure I got all the others, don't think I missed any. No commentary here from me, just wanted to make those available. I might come back to her though, if I have the time.

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Right.

The easiest way I can see this going forward is if the Seer comes out so that we can vote to guard him/her each night. That way we'll get a virtually limitless supply of dreams so that we can track these foul beasts down and snuff them out.

Thank you for posting before me, Boro; people who post first with cunning plans are startling Day 1 lynch targets and I'd hate to put myself on the chopping block so early.

Not that anyone would want to lynch a face like this...

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Darn.

Take away all my fun from me, will you?

Unless we wanted to coordinate saves with the Ranger, which really is not a half bad idea when you think about it...

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

It's all up to the Seer and whether s/he wants to come out at this point.

Of course, likely a wolf has already thought of this and would reveal first and/or counterreveal. I don't know how we'd proceed then, unless we wanted to protect both (Ranger one and the village the other, then alternate).

But IF there were a way of knowing the Seer is real, then all we need is a simple majority of ++Guard votes. The wolves would probably be too willing to go along at this point. Next night everyone would vote according to his/her conscience and the Ranger would make the save.

My point is that normally when new and/or weird rules are introduced into the mix the wolves profit from the confusion that results.

But I think in this situation we've been handed a genuine boon, if we can learn how to use it properly.

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

I did not say that the Seer should reveal his/her dreams each Day. That would be the equivalent of sending the Wolves a kill list. So, not unless we nab a wolf. In the meantime, though, if we have a protected Seer we do know that we will be getting dreams to our advantage, and if the Ranger dies then the Seer can reveal all of his/her dreams to the village. Hopefully at that point (depending on dream picks vs. kill picks) we would have enough Known Innocents to keep the wolves busy killing them off while we can focus on the unknowns.

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Okay, so...

First of all, what about the revealish plan is cheap? It follows the rules! The village should be more than glad to take all rules that give it an advantage and use them!

Second: Lommy, my dear, you are commenting on said plan. So don't complain about the fact that people are still talking about it. Fact is, people are filtering into this village one by one today and they may have thoughts about the matter that haven't been brought up yet.

I'm going to stir the pot a little bit more and suggest to you, Boro, that it is actually more important to start protecting Gifteds now rather than after the Wolves are down to only one kill, because the chances of someone whose special powers may mean the difference between survival and annihilation getting killed is especially high when there are two kills in place.

It looks as if (as I rather expected) no one wants to do this toDay, which is rather understandable. Since I will be busy for the last five hours of the Day I shall have to look over the thread thus far and cast my votes soonish.

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Nog, I like your style (i.e., keep 'em both alive).

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Silly, the seer would not be handing us the game. Unless s/he caught a wolf we would still be left to our own consciences when voting, and the Ranger would not last forever under this plan. All it does is give the village a tactical advantage.

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Currently debating whether to guard Boro, Legate, or Nog. They're all reasonable people, though they're heckawolves, plus they make the day more interesting. I'd hate to lose any of them Night One, until I have more information (since information they will leave) to go off of.

I'm already 90% sure of my lynch pick.

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Nice catch!

Wish I had time to discuss it more. Since I don't,

++Guard Boro

and

++wilwarin538

Nothing personal, m'dear; just a crack theory I have right now...

Hmm, curious what her "crack theory" was. Really don't like it when people are so cryptic. I almost prefer no reasoning over crypticness.

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

Depends on how much information the mod gives us. If we aren't told whether fewer kills than we expected are due to a Ranger save or due to a lack of wolvish power, then it wouldn't be that helpful to us.

[Inziladun]

Well, interesting turns of events, to say the least. They failed to guard you, Boro, so I trust you didn't have a hand in poor Mnemo's death!

I regret being part of Kitanna's, but her vote and guard struck me as wrong, and no one else was screaming for my vote.
I haven't seen anything much of note in Kit's words, beyond what Wilwa noted about the 'red flag' comment.
Nor Mnemo's. The choice of her as a target seems rather random. I would be curious as to the details of her 'crack theory' about Wilwa though.
Nerwen, if you would be so kind, a song might cheer our hearts.
What to do with the Legate?

*takes a drink of stock ale*

[wilwarin538]

Another list, just cause they are crazy fun:

Suspicious
Legate: he made sense for the most part yesterDay, though there were inconsistencies here and there. The fact that there was only one kill last Night does point towards him, I doubt the wolves would have given up a second kill purely to set him up, doesn't seem at all worth it for them to do that. Pretty sure I'm gonna vote him.
McCaber: not too too much from him yesterDay, but his vote just bugs me, doubt I'll vote him though, but I'm watching him
Lommy: she seemed very flip-floppy (as Nog put it), the fact that she was quick to disregard both Mnemo's plan and Pitch's suggestion as being "unfair" really bugs me, since they both follow the rules perfectly, and therefore are completely fair

Innocentish, for now
Boro: seems honest and logical, haven't seen anything that I don't like, might vote to guard him
Nerwen: nothing bad standing out for me here, she seems very logical, I understand why she got some guard votes yesterDay
Nienna: not seeing anything badish here
Nogrod: really trusting him, I like his logic and agree with him for the most part, I appreciate that he didn't totally throw out Mnemo's idea yesterDay, pretty sure I'm gonna vote to guard him
Pitchwife: seems fine
Sally: seems good
Shasta: seems good

Unsure, for now anyway
Greenie: didn't really stand out for me when I was reading back through, so don't have an opinion either way
Alona: no posts yet
Brinn: see Greenie
Hakon: nothing but "gut feelings" from him, so really there's not much to say
Inziladun: see Greenie and Brinn
Nessa: nothing from her yet
Nilp: is Nilp, "Confussion" is his middle name I'm sure

So there we are. Gonna go sleep now. Hope to see lots when I get up!

Xposted with Nilp, Inzil and Nienna

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Too easy?

[wilwarin538]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Too easy?

What's too easy dearie???

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Nilpaurion Felagund

Too easy?

You say it looks easy, I think it looks too clean. Pitch brings up the niche in the rules, Legate and McCaber yesterday say the Night Guard could be used to frame an innocent. Now Legate is spiritly arguing he is being framed.

I will agree with Inzil that it's been an admirable defense, but that doesn't take away from the fact that the "framing defense" is one of the weakest. Think you're that important to the wolves, eh?

I remember Mac in Brinn's last game after claiming (successfully) to be the Ranger, but still not dying that night passionately, and in some ways convincingly, argued that he was being set up as an easy lynch. Still didn't take away from the fact that it was a bogus defense because if he wasn't a wolf and declared he was the Ranger, the wolves would have killed him, but they didn't, ergo Mac had to be one of the wolves.

Now Legate is arguing he is being framed as an easy lynch, after setting up for the apparently "solid" defense the previous day. I say apparently solid, because shouting a "wolf set up conspiracy against me" is in fact...weak and the only reason Legate would use such a weak defense is because it's the only one he's got left after one wolf kill last night.

And now to other things

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

have you been drinking or are you a wolf? You're just being way too aggressive to be a thoughtful innocent and it's kind of annoying me - because I quite clearly did say that I think the plan is too risky and it's a part of the reason why I don't like it. You even talked about me saying that. And now you're claiming I didn't say that. It doesn't make any sense.

Me, aggressive? Like you hadn't seen me being aggressive like years ago?

Sorry Lommy, a bad point. I said I suspected you because you made your best to discredit the 0plan and took both views to hammer your point in. You said it was risky, yes, but you also said it was unfair to the wolves...

Originally Posted by Lommy

Not necessarily - unless Eönwë says something definite in the narrations, our ranger may just have made a save. But that's a very good point and it makes guard-voting possible wolves [(even) more] sensible.

What are you thinking about in here? Not necessarily? Why not? If we protect as a village someone and there are two kills then that one must be innocent. What are you thinking?

Okay tell that t6oMorrow, now we need to make decisions for toDay...