TIG: LXV - Our fate lies with...them?

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

edit: crossed with Autume, which reminds me: Where is Form?

Originally Posted by Sally

Oh, and what Mac said. Where's Formie? I miss him, bear, wolf, or none of the above.

Originally Posted by Lommy

Aganzir blows kisses to everybody and especially to the Celibateman. And she says Legate sends French kisses but he disagrees and says he's just sending greetings (or hugs, because sending greetings again would be boring)...

Awww!

The love and concern is greatly appreciated, especially at the end of a week that's been a bit of a catastrophe as it's wound down.

Anyway, I'm around now--at least until my brother kicks me off the computer (I'm home with the family for the weekend before I go back to school next week, and subject to such dictatorial whims--it's also why I've not been on yet).

[Formendacil]

Okay, so I've read up on the thread, but I've not taken it in, in detail. After Morm's most unfortunate turning out to be an Ordo--and extra-Downsian concerns that have my brain elsewhere--I'm kind of at a loss. I meant it when I said my fortunes rode on the outcome of his death. So as soon as the results came up that he was an Ordo, well, I kind of just assumed I was going to die toDay--which I assure you is an undermotivating reason to get back and keep up with the game.

But I'm here now, and I should be around for another hour or two, at least (the odds increase the later it gets that my brother will want the computer). So I'll try to engage myself and be useful...

[Formendacil]

Okay, so one thing that did register with me in my read-through is that Mac wants to know why Morm looked suspicious. As someone who thought so, I'll do my best to explain, granting, however, that I'm not looking back over the thread, so this is completely what I remember, from the lazy perspective of someone who's not planning to back himself up with arguments posted somewhere.

Anyway...

You'll remember that Morm started this whole nonsense that I'm the Bear. I think that was Day 3, though the Days kind of blend together. If it was, then it was also Day 3 that saw Lommy agree with him, and the two of them cast the lone votes for me. My suspicion of Morm is rooted then, in Day 3, in his suspicion of me, for the simple reason that the one person I know to be Innocent--me--has been set on by him.

Unlike Lommy, however, Morm's suspicion of me was not laid out in a clear, easy to follow manner. Lommy's suspicion--though obviously wrong--was at least laid out with evidence from the thread... but with Morm, he had merely mentioned a couple of times earlier in the Day that he thought I was suspicious, but he definitely seemed to think that other people were more suspicious than me. Then--out of the blue, before I'd been online yet for the day--he posts a one-paragraph post changing tacks completely, and votes for me. Someone--I think it was Autume posted an analysis of Morm right after that, and had the same perception of this that I did.

After that, I guess, it was mostly a case of Morm doggedly suspecting me--with about as much reason for suspecting me ever given as has been alleged I gave for suspecting him. Lommy's suspicion of me, indeed Mac's suspicion of me yesterDay, were at least grounded in arguments I could follow, even if I disputed them. Morm? He basically kept reiterating that I had to be the Bear, and that was that. So, knowing myself innocent, and finding Morm implacably belligerent, I concluded that he was a Bear--or at least a wolf.

EDIT: Crossposted with Sally fake-voting me (you have to highlight your vote, dear) and Mac, telling me to be useful.

[Nessa Telrunya]

Sally, how many times have you talked about looking at me and still not done it.

But, toDay, I think I have to side with Tum.

++Form

[Formendacil]

*deliberately pokes Mac*

Which is to say..>

*Formendacil whines about everyone voting for him*

What's that make, Nessa--five votes for me? Six? Two-thirds of the village? About as many votes for me as you've posted all game?

It's highly amusing, in a deathly sarcastic sense, that I've been back online for all of an hour, I've contributed one semi-studied post containing some serious business, and I already feel like one of the loudmouths today.

That means I'll be lynched and probably be innocent, of course, but it's still darkly humorous, especially if Mac and Sally were to get eaten tonight... toMorrow would have to be pantomimed!

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Lommy

And? By mathematical odds there are three innocents among the morm-voters too.

Are you actually trying to question the merit of analysing the votes and reasoning that led to the lynching of an innocent? Your fur is showing.

Sally, what is the reasoning on which you put people into those two groups?

Nessa, are you actually trying?

The sheer number of Form-votes right now suggests that we're wrong with it (remember 4/9 evil). I strongly suggest especially Lommy and Sally. Plus, I buy his explanation and think his general behaviour is innocent, although it could be more helpful, i.e., who do you think is guilty, Form?

Originally Posted by Nienna

The evil leading the blind is how the evil win.

Amen.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Are you actually trying to question the merit of analysing the votes and reasoning that led to the lynching of an innocent? Your fur is showing.

Mac dear, you were saying before that I was mistaken for asking why your better half (at least most days) was attacked and for trying to decide who the missed kill was. Don't we also catch baddies by analyzing Night activity?

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

i.e., who do you think is guilty, Form?

I barely know who's left alive in this village... how should I know who's guilty?

Okay... here's the list:

autume--first impression? She's ridden along on the coattails of others all game--Sally especially, but that may just be off-game camaraderie influencing what is either an extra-lost Ordo or a radar-avoiding Wolf. Or a really hidden Bear, but I doubt it.
Formendacil: Well, innocent, obviously.
Lommy: my first impression is to say that I haven't found her suspicious all game--despite her continual suspicions of me, which is rather odd given that I strongly suspected Morm for the same reason. It's a gut-feeling, difference, though, and while my gut still likes Lommy, my brain could be easily convinced otherwise... and if we get another Form-waggon, she's an acceptable alternative.
Macalaure--well, the fact that Mac thinks I'm probably innocent endears him greatly, and he DOES seem to have managed to remain mostly innocent in everyone's eyes--which is good, except that's how Bears and lone Wolves win... but the wolf isn't alone, and I can't get a Bear-feel from Mac--admitting, of course, I've said all along that a Bear wouldn't necessarily be discernible from an Ordo if they were clever--and Mac's played this game enough to know.
Mira really has said very little, and I'd be tempted to cast my vote in her direction. Granted, it's a bit late in the game to be voting off the quiet players, but there's always a chance that she's deliberately playing quiet so that she doesn't give herself away.
Nerwen--I'm not convinced she's the Cobbler, but I'm not unconvinced, either, if that makes any sense. She's definitely not as involved this game as she can be, but if she's the Cobbler, it makes more sense to ignore her right now.
Nessa, like Mira has said very little--less, even, in terms of my impressions, and I'd say she's made less of an effort to be useful. That'd be lynchworthy on an earlier Day, and I could definitely be convinced to go that way now... but it's not really enough on its own.
Nienna has been less than useful, and has not really responded to attempts to be prodded into something more... but, admittedly, I know she's been swamped somewhat with Real Life right now, so anti-usefulness doesn't need to equal evil. She has a couple of bad votes to her name, though...
sally looks clawed, fanged, and furry all over with her last minute votes and changes and the fact that she might be the Cobbler--and that possible argument that Durelin might have dreamed of her--inclines me to think she's probably just Sally.

So... in verdict?

I really don't know who's guilty. I'm not inclined to rule anyone out, but as for voting today, I'm inclined most to Mira or Nessa for being too quiet, or Lommy, in spite of my gut.

EDIT: X-posted since Mac's second last--the one I quoted.

[satansaloser2005]

The count currently stands at -3. Let us proceed.

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Well, I come back after last night's vote to a fine mess, don't I? Lynched the Seer, lost an ordo!Fea, and two other ordos in the Night.

Honestly, those who would look most dubious are Pitchwife voters, but here's something else: Wouldn't a wolf be more likely to inconspicuously slide into a bandwagon, rather than start or finish one so out in the open?

I know Tum seems suspicious because she was the deciding vote, but I don't think a wolf would do something that brings so much attention to them.

More thoughts, maybe a list, to come.

edit: crossed since Nerwen

Something in me wants to suggest that this could be a Nessa bear gloating under the cover of sarcasm. Anyway, trying to back away from that, she's just stating the obvious again and then saying Tum doesn't seem as suspicious as some of the other voters that killed Pitchie. -1

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Personal reasons? I do not recall saying "Rikae, I'm voting you for personal reasons."

It's nothing against you, just that the way you jumped out at Hakon, when he was only trying to help. You effectively stated that you did not like talking about useless subjects, like how bad Day one is, or the Bear, or surveys, and that worked to take the eyes off you, yet you persisted in actively participating in those same conversations, and steering the talk away from the most important subject-catching a baddie.

But no, I don't think you are a baddie, you've suceeded in catching the spotlight and no wolf would do anything to get so much scrutiny.

Defends her vote for Rikae and then says she doesn't think Rikae's a baddie. So....she voted her, but didn't think she was guilt. Am I missing something? -1

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Okay, I'll drop the matter, but I can't promise someone else won't pick it up. Now I find myself thinking you an ordo who likes to voice her opinion, rather than a baddie.

Now, The Phantom has somehow managed to stick himself both to the top and bottom of my suspicions. His part in finding Pitch innocent can be interpreted in multiple ways, but that is his own fault for not supporting words with actions. I can see him as maybe being a gifted, but that would be a stretch, and gifteds and baddies are often meshed together.

So....she thinks that Phantom was either a goodie or a baddie. Erm, not terribly helpful. Seems like circular logic, which I know I sometimes do by mistake or sleep deprivation, but with everything else it looks bad to me. -1

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

I'm not sure if I should be glad or scared that you remembered me, Rikae. >_>

Nada. +0

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

I think the baddies, rather than being those deciding votes at the end of the bandwagons, were most likely the ones who hopped on in the very middle. Just a thought.

Isn't this what she said before? *checks* Yup. So why repeat it? +0

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Thank you for the vote count, Nienna. What do you think of the voting yesterDay?

edit:crossed with Rikae

Nothing. (Tie to Nienna.) Can't see the point of this. +0

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Okay, wow, finally back to be able to read posts, and yay! Stuff with substance! That cures the aches from bad Elvis impersonators!

Soooo, there seem to be a lot of bandwagons to go with now, but they all sound sound. (Haha, get it?) But who really stands out?

Well, I would like to agree that alona and Tum are awfully cool with each other. But I still don't find Tum guilty, for earlier stated reasons. Alona seems a lil... Double sided this time around, I suppose. Her answers ring perfect when first read, but when pondered... could be wolf on innocent.

++alonariel

And I'm sorry that being voted for makes you feel so bad. Just know that this is coming from me only in-game. Nothing against you personally.

Fluff, says all the bandwaggons look good to her, agrees that Alona and Tum are being friendly with each other. (Ties to Alona and Tum.) Says Alona looks good but not on second glance. Seems to me like a copout, suspecting Alona but able to leave room for a retraction. Or rather, doesn't want to tie herself. (Here again I think she's a better bear than wolf candidate because I think she'd have used her 'indecision' to save Alona rather than try to kill her.) -1

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Ah, what a mess. I really hope we manage to net a baddie today. Seems like there are quite a few scapegoats coming under suspicion at the moment, not good. We are getting so divided, I won't be surprised if we finish the wolves' job for them.

And the nickname conversation was...unexpected, to say the least. But then again, my nick is one of the easiest.

Again, seems like a subtle gloating. I could be wrong, but it's like she's trying to appear innocent and yet....blah. +0, because I feel generous lol

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Mmmm, neither alona or Form are looking very good right now. I just can't figure out who looks more suspicious...

Who to vote for?

It looks like she's asking advice on how to vote and look the least suspicious. And then....well, you'll see. This in itself isn't horribly bad, I suppose. +0

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

So, I just realized that I've still not followed up on my promises of a list. How typical of me.

Alona-I just get this... Feeling from her. Like sort of a wolfish feel.

Tum-Has played in an honest sort of manner, not giving any reason to suspect her, unless you count her tie-breaker on Day 1.

Durelin-I don't know very well, so I can't give a clear impression. He seems to have a talent of saying a lot of in-depth stuff, yet being completely anonymous almost.

Form-Could be a wolf, I suppose. But then again, can't everyone else?

Lommy-Is giving out clear opinions, not ringing the bells. Don't think she's a baddie.

Mac-Is there yet not. Kind of hard to analyze.

Mira-Is completely floating over my head. I have no idea what to think of her.

Morm-I am very impressed with. Puts himself out there, but kind of gray, rather than black or white, in terms of role.

Nerwen-Is giving me no idea as to what she is. Not fair, really.

Nessa-You tell me.

Nienna-Is ringing those tinkly little bells, but there's no reason for me to go after her.

Rikae-Is maybe a bit suspicious, but I don't think she's a wolf.

Sally-I am pretty sure of her innocence at this point. I saw sally!wolf in action last game, and she's completely different this time around.

Shasta-Well, if anything, I know he's not the cobbler, or he'd be catching wolves off the hook.

Well, I kind of suppose I don't know anything about anyone. I think I'm one of the only ones to fail at list making.

Doesn't really give a true suspicion/opinion on anyone. Some people do fail at that (heck, I'm one of them) but this seems wrong. -1

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Gah! I'm so sorry!

Nada. +0

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Well, I have no idea where my vote should go. It would be Alona, but I'll be sleeping at deadline, and I am loathe to vote someone who has no chance to defend themselves. Sooo.....

++no vote

She has suspects from before and yet now she can't figure out who to vote for? Really?! -1, because each post is only +/-1 so I can only take one point.

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

I really don't see why people find my giving a valid reason for votes(or no-votes) suspicious. Voting while someone is unable to defend themselves has already lost us more innocents than baddies.

Yes, but we can't hide behind no votes, especially when we have good suspects. Fair point, but no. -1

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Hmm, Morm, you seem to bangwagon quite a bit, I've noticed after reading some. Quite suspicious if I may say so.

I suspected Morm myself so I can't fairly take off a point for this. So meh. +0

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

I'm sorry about my early-vote again. I always have trouble with deadlines being in the middle of the night.

++Morm

She didn't mention him all that much. Hmmmm....random....+0, to be nice

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Sally, how many times have you talked about looking at me and still not done it.

But, toDay, I think I have to side with Tum.

++Form

At least she's said things about him before, so meh. And I finally did you, so there! +0


Total: -10. Ouch, that's harsh.

EDIT in advance: I'm going to edit in my total, so I hope that's okay. I need to make sure I'm right.

[Nienna]

L ,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,kkkkkkkkkkkkk

Fiona says "hi" as she wanders precariously onto the keyboard.

Thoughts:

I really really really wish Mira would post something of substance. My dear I'm concerned that you are the Bear who is just skating by. Your votes seem to be rather random and they look like you are trying to avoid a bandwagon and suspicion. This concerns me and actually makes you look more suspicious.

I'm still trying to figure out exactly where the Form-wagon came from. It seemed like blind following the evil (no offense!) If someone can give me evidence against Form then I'm more than willing to reconsider him but so far he has seemed rather Form-like.

The evil leading the blind is how the evil win.

Unless something drastic changes I'll probably be voting for Lommy.

[satansaloser2005]

*hugs Form*


Really though, dear, we just wanted you around when we did this.

++Form




I just realized that 1/3 of the village is evil. (Not including the cobbler.) They're not all on the same team but still. Here's my thoughts on how the village is split, or at least how I think it works out trying to get it into correct numbers.


Baddies
Nessa
Nienna
Formie (?)
Tum (?)

Goodies
Sally (of course!)
Mac
Lommie
Mira
Nerwen (?)


I've actually forgotten several times that Mira's in this game. She's up for a look see after I (finally) get done with Nessa.

EDIT: x'd with Formie's last
EDIT #2: my list was parceled out to include the cobbler in the baddie category, in case you didn't realize

[Macalaure]

Form, if you're innocent, please stop whining about how you're going to die and get to work figuring out the wolves and bear. Savvy?