TIG: LXV - Our fate lies with...them?

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mac, what's your case against Form, in a nutshell? I'm not sure what you're basing those "baddie points" on.

One, Alona defends Form and attacks Lommy when Lommy gave her case against Form yesterDay. She didn't do something like it that openly all game and I see no other reason why she might have.

More importantly, it's the way Form handles his suspicion of Alona yesterDay, which is "Wolf A lets almost-dead Wolf B jump the gun to make himself look good" right from the playbook.
- He suspects Alona, but barely gives any original points against her, and the few things he adds are very careful, so that they don't actually convince anyone.
- He has back-up plans aplenty and tries to sell them (quite strongly, even).
- When he is sure that Alona is going to accumulate enough votes, he gives in and casts a decisive vote (decisive only by placement, it was to be expected that others would follow), but he's still quite happy to look for a reasonable opportunity to retract.
He couldn't have known that there was actually support to lynch morm, because the later votes against him came out of the blue, and a sudden retraction right at the deadline would have looked severely evil.

Originally Posted by Form

You have my complete and utter attention, Mac. But, I admit, I was not aware you addressed anything to me. Would you like desperate protestations of my innocence? Wild accusations of Morm and sundry? Cackling? Confessions of guilt?

All of the above.


crossed with morm

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

All of the above.

So, really, you don't want my attention at all. Looks to me like the case against me is picked, and at this stage I'm unlikely to dissuade it.

However, since I can't refuse a chance to argue, let's have a go at it anyway:

1. Alona defended me.

Heh. Well, I haven't really got a defence for that, though it definitely depends on the assumption that she was enough of a newbie-wolf that she would be as obvious as to assist another wolf on the Day when she should have known full well (assuming the other wolves had the sense to tell her, even if she didn't already have it figured out) that she might die. It could be--less likely, I'll grant--that she's trying to cast a shadow on me.

More likely, knowing I was innocent (that is, knowing I wasn't a wolf), she assisted me out of the goodness of her heart without thinking that this might have any consequences. Surely I'm not the only one who picked up that Alona liked people liking her?

2. My apparent lack of attack on Alona yesterday.

First of all, you're right, I guess, putting things that way that it's a textbook case of "Wolf A votes for dying Wolf B to look good"--but doesn't it occur to you that it's too much of a textbook case? If you didn't suspect me, would it look that obvious? Or would it look too obvious?

Granted, that may not sound like much of an argument on my part, but I've definitely been around long enough to know how a wolf tries to look good voting for another wolf, and I'd also like to think I'd be better than that--that I'd have just enough of a trace of obtrusiveness that I'd be moderately suspicious, though never quite suspicious enough to lynch. It seems here that it's the other way around! I'm just a touch too smooth, so I'm definitely suspicious enough to lynch.

In terms of your specific charges that I a.) offer no substantive criticisms of Alona, b.) offer lots of alternatives, and c.) couldn't have seen the Morm-waggon coming...

a.) This would be pretty much in keeping with my general philosophical sense of "nothing is certain." It's also fair to note that, as with toDay, I was mostly active towards the end of the Day, by which time the arguments had been offered (my pre-bedtime posts were admittedly insubstantial due to the late hour), and, anyway, it's not like Alona left enough behind on Days 1 and 2 (having a tendency towards fluff posts) that there was likely a lot more I could have gleaned than what was already being said.

b.) Alternative offering is what you do when you're not certain of someone's guilt--and when you're an angsty philosopher player of this game. It comes from trying to look at things from every angle.

Granted, I'm not doing that today. Rise or fall, I'm tying myself to the Morm-waggon. He has that effect of me (Nog can too--glad he's not here!). I'm well aware that if he dies and is innocent, I'm going to look more lupine or ursine than the Big Bad Wolf. So I'm really, really, hoping he's guilty!

c.) I couldn't have known, yes, that a Morm-waggon was coming, but when I voted, Alona was merely in the lead, not certainly doomed. Indeed, the Sally-waggon seemed to have a lot of potential (and if she was a Cobbler, you'll agree I'd have looked as good as with a wolf), and Rikae and Morm were getting mentions, as my memory goes. If I were a wolf, it would make more sense to have waited longer on my vote.

Naturally, of course, anything I've said will only confirm you more in your suspicion...

[Formendacil]

Well, there's nothing for it--I'm apparently accumulating votes, and I don't really want to die. And Morm's almost certainly evil.

++ Mormegil

[Rikae]

On second thought -
Form's defense looks exactly like what a wolf would say, and his certainty of Morm's guilt seems pretty groundless.

--Nienna

That vote's for Form, unless somebody convinces me otherwise.

[wilwarin538]

doing my duties

Nessa ---> Morm
Nerwen ---> Morm
Lommy ---> Form
Mac ---> Form
Mira ---> Autume
Rikae --> Nienna
Form --> Morm
-- Rikae --> Nienna

Morm 3, Form 2, Autume 1

48 minutes left...just so you know...

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Form

If you didn't suspect me, would it look that obvious? Or would it look too obvious?

Form, this is what made me suspect you. I wasn't suspicious before, and I was rather surprised of the outcome of my analysis.

You're forgetting charge b.) (ii): You were not only offering alternatives, you really tried to convince people to start another bandwaggon so that you wouldn't have to vote Alona.

Originally Posted by Form

If I were a wolf, it would make more sense to have waited longer on my vote.

Not if you were looking for an impact vote.

Why does your defense read so pessimistic? I feel bad now...

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Why does your defense read so pessimistic? I feel bad now...

Not at all because I might actually be innocent... that would clearly run counter to all the data given.

Village - Another Ordo = Less Village.

[mormegil]

++Formendabear

[mormegil]

Nessa ---> Morm
Nerwen ---> Morm
Lommy ---> Form
Mac ---> Form
Mira ---> Autume
Rikae --> Nienna
Form --> Morm
-- Rikae --> Nienna
Morm-->Form

Morm 3, Form 3, Autume 1

[Formendacil]

Originally Posted by mormegil

++Formendabear

You still think I'm the Bear, Morm? Even with the Mac-analysis that has convinced Rikae and seems doomed to send the whole village plunging in after? Is it because you're the bear, maybe, that you are so happy to make certain everyone else looks elsewhere? Or are you the one, solitary, subscriber--ironic as that would be--to my suggestions that there's no difference in gut instinct between a Wolf and a Bear?