TIG: LXV - Our fate lies with...them? - The Barrow-Downs Discussion Forum

Thinlómien · 08-19-2009, 06:18 AM

I'm back (didn't swim, both the weather and the water were rather cold but I had fun) and I'm off to do the Alona-analysis. I have an hour to do it now so I doubt I will manage it before I go to work. I will finish it later then. I'm keeping an eye on thsi thread, so if anyone is around and feels like a chat, I'm here.

wilwarin538 · 08-19-2009, 06:43 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm sorry ...I am really mean to you aren't I? I've changed it for you. I heart you.

Extremely?!?!?!

Way to show me who's the boss.

Boromir88 · 08-19-2009, 10:35 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wilwarin538

Extremely?!?!?!

Way to show me who's the boss.

Don't forget it either. I see your mind, you use your right wing as means to charm me and get me off guard, but with your left you seek to supplant me. Supplanter!

Durelin · 08-19-2009, 10:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nerwen

The only one? Morm nearly got the chop yesterDay

I know, I know. I was talking about accusations based on his *plan*...I think.

Quote:

Originally Posted by morm

I can't remember when Mira voted I think it was before Nienna and Nerwen

Actually she voted you after both of them, tying you with Alona.

I copy morm...

Cobbler
Sally? Nerwen?

Wolf
Nienna, Mira, Lommy, Nessa, Sally, autum....

Bear
morm...Lommy...

What's interesting is once again Sally did a bizarre retraction, and is convinced she did something she didn't do. Ties are ties in this game, it is not the first to a certain number of votes, it is a coin flip. I'm thinking she's our cobbler cause of this, but maybe she is a wolf playing that...boldly.

I mean, I must admit I'm a little partial to keeping her around because she's fun.

edit: by "a certain number of votes" I mean the highest number of votes...duh.....

Mirandir · 08-19-2009, 11:22 AM

So Shasta. Why? I'm going to try to start an analysis before I have to leave for work, but it'll be done by deadline, even if I have to finish it when I get home. Hopefully I can find a connection between the three bear kills. To analyzing!

mormegil · 08-19-2009, 11:59 AM

It has become too quiet for my taste and I smell something foul in the air. I wish the group I think innocent would talk more. I fear that the wolves got scared because of yesterday and now they are laying low letting the tides go where they may hoping to avoid detection.

Durelin is the lone exception to the current trend, in fact she's said more today than all other days combined, or so it seems.

Thinlómien · 08-19-2009, 12:05 PM

Morm starts to seem slightly foul to me.

Could someone explain why half of the village suspects Nerwen of cobblering? It confuses me because I get no such vibes.

Now I'm off to first have dinner and then finish the Alonalysis.

Durelin · 08-19-2009, 12:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by morm

Durelin is the lone exception to the current trend, in fact she's said more today than all other days combined, or so it seems.

No, morm. You just started to notice me because I talked about you.

Quote:

Originally Posted by sally

Heh. You know I was mostly kidding about that, right?

Well no. I went back and looked, and I really can't see anything that tells me that.

And what does "mostly kidding" mean anyway?

Quote:

Originally Posted by Mira

So Shasta. Why? I'm going to try to start an analysis before I have to leave for work, but it'll be done by deadline, even if I have to finish it when I get home. Hopefully I can find a connection between the three bear kills. To analyzing!

What about the wolveses that are still out there?

satansaloser2005 · 08-19-2009, 12:01 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Durelin

What's interesting is once again Sally did a bizarre retraction, and is convinced she did something she didn't do. Ties are ties in this game, it is not the first to a certain number of votes, it is a coin flip. I'm thinking she's our cobbler cause of this, but maybe she is a wolf playing that...boldly.

Heh. You know I was mostly kidding about that, right?

Thinlómien · 08-19-2009, 07:03 AM

Okay, I started my analysis and managed to do Day1. I have to go to work now, but I'll be back to finish my analysis - you can expect to see it in 6-7 hours. (Free feel to make your own analyses if that's not soon enough.

) Until then!

mormegil · 08-19-2009, 09:06 AM

Nienna:

Post 280 she is in favor of lynching Fea. Her reasoning is—“This way we can make sure we aren't lynching a gifted or even an ordo. It will give us another day to work out who the baddies are.”

Post 405 defends previous post and Hakon doesn’t look guilty those who locked in vote for him look suspicious. She doesn’t come out and say my name here but implies it.

Post 421 mildly defends Alona saying that Mac’s vote for her seems fine but Pitchwife’s doesn’t. She wonders how Pitch narrowed it down to Alona and Autume.

Post 449 votes Pitchwife our seer with this reasoning—“Pitchwife is being the most suspicious to me after his weird voting thing. Of everyone he seems the most baddie-like”

End of Day 1. She votes our seer on tenuous reasoning at best, however this cannot be held too strongly against her as ordos obviously did the same. There were a fair amount of posts I did not include because they were fluff, such as vote counts and a word cloud or something like that.

Post 498 asks me why I think the bear would only try and kill wolves…she twisted my words here as I never said that I did say that it would make a lot of sense for the bear to go for the wolves.

Post 590 does a vote summary from the previous day. My Hakon lock in feels unsettling to her.

Post 606 does a fair analysis of Hakon voters from previous day. It is important to note that Alona was among that lot…I will quote the whole post here.
“Hakon Voters:

-Morm – weird vote and retract and vote again just because Hakon commented on something Morm said pre-game

-Alona – voted early because she said she might not be around… always the possibility to retract later… thought that Hakon bringing up surveys just felt weird and agreed with what Morm says about Hakon earlier

-Sally – gave no reasoning for her vote in her vote post but in a previous post she said that she didn’t like Hakon trying to stir things up and being laid back at the same time. She said it looked squirmy (218).

-Autume (later retracted) – Didn’t give any reason for voting Hakon… not even a little. Then switched to Pitchwife (one minute before deadline to push Pitchwife over the edge) also without reason. She says she can expand on it toDay. I think it is time for that explanation.”

Post 608 does an analysis of Pitchwife voters. Wants to hear more from Shasta and Autume who retracted from Hakon and voted for Pitchwife.

Post 610 apologizes to Autume for not seeing her explanation of vote for Pitchwife, it can be found in post 494 and doesn’t help turn my suspicions of Autume one bit.

Post 658 non Hakon/Pitchwife voters…not a lot of substance here.

Post 722 votes for Shasta as he has been the most suspicious today but she recognizes that he hasn’t been around. Nienna, you seem to have a knack for voting to lynch gifted. Her substance is very weak for her vote here.

Day 2 ends. Again a lot of posts but little substance. She does more vote counts and word clouds than useful posts.

Post 858 does a post by post analysis of Sally with the conclusion that she’s not overly suspicious but does end up ¾ the way on her list

Post 921 Sally no longer looks suspicious but Shasta still does primarily because of his voting record…Hey Nienna, your voting record isn’t squeaky clean either :P

Post 937 wants clarification from Rikae as to what creepy means so she can respond to it. Defends Sally here. This has been a sudden shift from suspecting to defending her.

Post 973 defends her previous votes

Post 981 replies to Rikae with this—“I apologize for being quiet and concise. I'm sorry that it makes me seem 'creepy' but I don't think that posting more often or at greater length is a strength of mine. I am just trying to figure out who the baddies are and lynch them so that we can have a village victory.”

Post 996 Answers Rikae again with this—“I'm merely trying to figure out how to defend myself to you.”

Post 1018 says this about me—”I'm getting bear vibes off of Morm. He has discussed the bear at great length and he has done some weird voting things... mostly voting early and then the locking in of Hakon on Day One. He is just exuding bear to me at the moment.” It was later pointed out that I did not speak of the bear much. This was odd to me and seemed forced.

Post 1026 I have responded to her specifically on my vote for Hakon, which I had done previously too but she said she understands but is still suspicious of me.

Post 1052 People in certain roles will talk about their roles quite often to test the waters.

Post 1081 votes for me as I’m the most suspicious to her, what happened to Shasta here? She hasn’t at this point really considered anybody seriously and hasn’t stuck out her neck and been risky in other words she is playing it very safe.

End of Day 3 a lot more vote counts and some other fluff

Post 1124 these posts always raise red flags to me “It is sad that Shasta, our valiant Ranger is now dead, but I'm happy we have finally nabbed a wolf and the wolves lost out on a kill. This is good news.” Our valiant ranger, she is trying so hard to show us how sad she is and then has to express how good it is we bagged a wolf. This feels forced and contrived.

That is all I have on her. I feel no better about her. To highlight:

• Terrible voting record
• Lots of fluff and meaningless posts though vote counts are helpful in a sense they don’t commit to anything
• Is playing it safe and not sticking her neck out on anything
• Defends Alona at one point rather mildly yes but would a pack mate be overt in their defense.
• Has really been trying to fly under the radar but do so with a lot of the fluff posts I pointed to earlier.
• Jumped from suspecting Sally to not suspecting rather quickly and went from Shasta to me rather quickly for reasons that aren’t really valid such as me talking about the bear a lot, now I have a bit more today but prior to this I had not and my Day 1 vote for Hakon.

Overall, I don’t trust her. I think her a very likely candidate for a wolf.

Nienna · 08-19-2009, 09:32 AM

I'm covering for Fea at work today so I'm not going to be around until like 8pm EST just so you know.

Morm I think you are grasping with the analysis of me. I think you are worried because I've been calling you out as the Bear. I've made a few mistakes with voting but I voted based on my assumptions at the time and won't apologize for any of it. Feel free to keep analyzing me and such while I'm gone. And if you think I'm the most guilty vote for me. I'd hate to die when we could be lynching a wolf/bear but do whatever you feel necessary.

mormegil · 08-19-2009, 09:41 AM

By way of information here is my current read on everybody

autume-Looking fairly guilty to me
Durelin-Innocent
Formendacil-Likely Bear
Lommy-Something is not right cobbler or bear feel
Macalaure-Innocent
Mira-uncertain but could be guilty
Nerwen-possible cobbler
Nessa-Leaning guilty
Nienna-Feels guilty
Rikae-Innocent
sally-Leaning guilty

There are three I trust right now--Rikae, Mac and Durelin.
Cobbler--Nerwen is most likely followed by Lommy and Sally
Wolf- Autume, Nienna are the leading followed by Nessa, Mira and Sally
Bear--Formendacil followed by Lommy

08-19-2009, 06:18 AM	#1
Thinlómien Shady She-Penguin Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: In a far land beyond the Sea Posts: 8,093	I'm back (didn't swim, both the weather and the water were rather cold but I had fun) and I'm off to do the Alona-analysis. I have an hour to do it now so I doubt I will manage it before I go to work. I will finish it later then. I'm keeping an eye on thsi thread, so if anyone is around and feels like a chat, I'm here. __________________ Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris

08-19-2009, 11:22 AM	#5
Mirandir Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Jan 2009 Location: CT/NY Posts: 681	I've got a little time before work so... So Shasta. Why? I'm going to try to start an analysis before I have to leave for work, but it'll be done by deadline, even if I have to finish it when I get home. Hopefully I can find a connection between the three bear kills. To analyzing! __________________ Rise and rise again until lambs become lions.

08-19-2009, 11:59 AM	#6
mormegil Maundering Mage Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 4,651	It has become too quiet for my taste and I smell something foul in the air. I wish the group I think innocent would talk more. I fear that the wolves got scared because of yesterday and now they are laying low letting the tides go where they may hoping to avoid detection. Durelin is the lone exception to the current trend, in fact she's said more today than all other days combined, or so it seems. __________________ “I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

08-19-2009, 12:05 PM	#7
Thinlómien Shady She-Penguin Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: In a far land beyond the Sea Posts: 8,093	Back here Morm starts to seem slightly foul to me. Could someone explain why half of the village suspects Nerwen of cobblering? It confuses me because I get no such vibes. Now I'm off to first have dinner and then finish the Alonalysis. __________________ Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris

08-19-2009, 07:03 AM	#10
Thinlómien Shady She-Penguin Join Date: Dec 2004 Location: In a far land beyond the Sea Posts: 8,093	Okay, I started my analysis and managed to do Day1. I have to go to work now, but I'll be back to finish my analysis - you can expect to see it in 6-7 hours. (Free feel to make your own analyses if that's not soon enough. ) Until then! __________________ Like the stars chase the sun, over the glowing hill I will conquer Blood is running deep, some things never sleep Double Fenris

08-19-2009, 09:06 AM	#11
mormegil Maundering Mage Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 4,651	Nienna Analysis Nienna: Post 280 she is in favor of lynching Fea. Her reasoning is—“This way we can make sure we aren't lynching a gifted or even an ordo. It will give us another day to work out who the baddies are.” Post 405 defends previous post and Hakon doesn’t look guilty those who locked in vote for him look suspicious. She doesn’t come out and say my name here but implies it. Post 421 mildly defends Alona saying that Mac’s vote for her seems fine but Pitchwife’s doesn’t. She wonders how Pitch narrowed it down to Alona and Autume. Post 449 votes Pitchwife our seer with this reasoning—“Pitchwife is being the most suspicious to me after his weird voting thing. Of everyone he seems the most baddie-like” End of Day 1. She votes our seer on tenuous reasoning at best, however this cannot be held too strongly against her as ordos obviously did the same. There were a fair amount of posts I did not include because they were fluff, such as vote counts and a word cloud or something like that. Post 498 asks me why I think the bear would only try and kill wolves…she twisted my words here as I never said that I did say that it would make a lot of sense for the bear to go for the wolves. Post 590 does a vote summary from the previous day. My Hakon lock in feels unsettling to her. Post 606 does a fair analysis of Hakon voters from previous day. It is important to note that Alona was among that lot…I will quote the whole post here. “Hakon Voters: -Morm – weird vote and retract and vote again just because Hakon commented on something Morm said pre-game -Alona – voted early because she said she might not be around… always the possibility to retract later… thought that Hakon bringing up surveys just felt weird and agreed with what Morm says about Hakon earlier -Sally – gave no reasoning for her vote in her vote post but in a previous post she said that she didn’t like Hakon trying to stir things up and being laid back at the same time. She said it looked squirmy (218). -Autume (later retracted) – Didn’t give any reason for voting Hakon… not even a little. Then switched to Pitchwife (one minute before deadline to push Pitchwife over the edge) also without reason. She says she can expand on it toDay. I think it is time for that explanation.” Post 608 does an analysis of Pitchwife voters. Wants to hear more from Shasta and Autume who retracted from Hakon and voted for Pitchwife. Post 610 apologizes to Autume for not seeing her explanation of vote for Pitchwife, it can be found in post 494 and doesn’t help turn my suspicions of Autume one bit. Post 658 non Hakon/Pitchwife voters…not a lot of substance here. Post 722 votes for Shasta as he has been the most suspicious today but she recognizes that he hasn’t been around. Nienna, you seem to have a knack for voting to lynch gifted. Her substance is very weak for her vote here. Day 2 ends. Again a lot of posts but little substance. She does more vote counts and word clouds than useful posts. Post 858 does a post by post analysis of Sally with the conclusion that she’s not overly suspicious but does end up ¾ the way on her list Post 921 Sally no longer looks suspicious but Shasta still does primarily because of his voting record…Hey Nienna, your voting record isn’t squeaky clean either :P Post 937 wants clarification from Rikae as to what creepy means so she can respond to it. Defends Sally here. This has been a sudden shift from suspecting to defending her. Post 973 defends her previous votes Post 981 replies to Rikae with this—“I apologize for being quiet and concise. I'm sorry that it makes me seem 'creepy' but I don't think that posting more often or at greater length is a strength of mine. I am just trying to figure out who the baddies are and lynch them so that we can have a village victory.” Post 996 Answers Rikae again with this—“I'm merely trying to figure out how to defend myself to you.” Post 1018 says this about me—”I'm getting bear vibes off of Morm. He has discussed the bear at great length and he has done some weird voting things... mostly voting early and then the locking in of Hakon on Day One. He is just exuding bear to me at the moment.” It was later pointed out that I did not speak of the bear much. This was odd to me and seemed forced. Post 1026 I have responded to her specifically on my vote for Hakon, which I had done previously too but she said she understands but is still suspicious of me. Post 1052 People in certain roles will talk about their roles quite often to test the waters. Post 1081 votes for me as I’m the most suspicious to her, what happened to Shasta here? She hasn’t at this point really considered anybody seriously and hasn’t stuck out her neck and been risky in other words she is playing it very safe. End of Day 3 a lot more vote counts and some other fluff Post 1124 these posts always raise red flags to me “It is sad that Shasta, our valiant Ranger is now dead, but I'm happy we have finally nabbed a wolf and the wolves lost out on a kill. This is good news.” Our valiant ranger, she is trying so hard to show us how sad she is and then has to express how good it is we bagged a wolf. This feels forced and contrived. That is all I have on her. I feel no better about her. To highlight: • Terrible voting record • Lots of fluff and meaningless posts though vote counts are helpful in a sense they don’t commit to anything • Is playing it safe and not sticking her neck out on anything • Defends Alona at one point rather mildly yes but would a pack mate be overt in their defense. • Has really been trying to fly under the radar but do so with a lot of the fluff posts I pointed to earlier. • Jumped from suspecting Sally to not suspecting rather quickly and went from Shasta to me rather quickly for reasons that aren’t really valid such as me talking about the bear a lot, now I have a bit more today but prior to this I had not and my Day 1 vote for Hakon. Overall, I don’t trust her. I think her a very likely candidate for a wolf. __________________ “I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

08-19-2009, 09:32 AM	#12
Nienna Ghost Prince of Cardolan Join Date: Mar 2009 Location: School Posts: 642	I'm covering for Fea at work today so I'm not going to be around until like 8pm EST just so you know. Morm I think you are grasping with the analysis of me. I think you are worried because I've been calling you out as the Bear. I've made a few mistakes with voting but I voted based on my assumptions at the time and won't apologize for any of it. Feel free to keep analyzing me and such while I'm gone. And if you think I'm the most guilty vote for me. I'd hate to die when we could be lynching a wolf/bear but do whatever you feel necessary. __________________ Puddle! Puddle!

08-19-2009, 09:41 AM	#13
mormegil Maundering Mage Join Date: Apr 2005 Location: Texas Posts: 4,651	By way of information here is my current read on everybody autume-Looking fairly guilty to me Durelin-Innocent Formendacil-Likely Bear Lommy-Something is not right cobbler or bear feel Macalaure-Innocent Mira-uncertain but could be guilty Nerwen-possible cobbler Nessa-Leaning guilty Nienna-Feels guilty Rikae-Innocent sally-Leaning guilty There are three I trust right now--Rikae, Mac and Durelin. Cobbler--Nerwen is most likely followed by Lommy and Sally Wolf- Autume, Nienna are the leading followed by Nessa, Mira and Sally Bear--Formendacil followed by Lommy __________________ “I wish it need not have happened in my time," said Frodo. "So do I," said Gandalf, "and so do all who live to see such times. But that is not for them to decide. All we have to decide is what to do with the time that is given us.”

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