TIG: LXV - Our fate lies with...them?

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Nothing like gooey smores roasted over an open-Hakon.

That made me LOL.

Anyway, I can't say I'm too thrilled about Lari being killed so early, especially since she was just an ordo...And with Hakon gone too we're down two ordos... I shall be back shortly with a list/analysis of Lari's posts from yesterDay.

Oh, and before you feel the need to analyze that first sentence of mine about Lari, it's only because we modded the last game and I knew she was looking forward to playing again. Nothing more sinister than that.

[Nienna]

Eek. Day two and we are down 3 ordos and a seer.


I promised Fea I would make a word cloud for her awesomeness so here it is:

[mormegil]

*claps*

Bravo village, you managed to lynch the seer. I found him slightly suspicious but not even to vote for him even if I could. I wouldn't have voted for him because he did look slightly suspicious, if you follow me. Often times the gifteds seem suspicious because liked the wolves they are acting different or more guarded in what they say. Bah, I'm glad to know that the bear thought Hakon was a wolf. We can assume the bear found him suspicious too and therefore killed him. However, it doesn't fully help us but it could. Obviously it could be somebody that stated their suspicion of Hakon and might have voted for him. It could be that they said nothing all together. Not very helpful, I know.

I know it will be brought up sooner or later but Autume's retract and vote looks somewhat odd. Now it would be evven worse for her (assuming Autume is female) had the wolves killed Hakon but they did not. Autume could be the bear but based not likely a wolf. I haven't elucidated what I mean very well. Let me break it down a bit.

A wolf Autume could have changed her vote from Hakon to Pitchwife and then the cover-up would be to kill Hakon at night, it is what I would do, or might do in such a situation, it would have been damage control from my point of view. Anyway, since the bear killed Hakon it's obvious he/she thought him to be a wolf. Now Autume may have taken this bold strategy but I'm not familiar with her and most people don't have the fortitude to try such a risky strategy. I am willing to assume that Autume is an ordo that was influenced by group think in the lynching of Hakon.

[mormegil]

After reading what Rikae said about tummy, I am more convinced that we should simply lynch them both and be done with the confusion they will inevitably cause. Didn't I tell you to lynch phantom on day1 and be done with the endless debate the inevitably surrounds him. Rikae tends to be suspected too all the time.

[Nienna]

I'm just wondering, Morm, why you think that the bear would only try and kill wolves?

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Disappointed she wasn't gifted, are you?

Oh yes, because if I were evil I would make a slip that obvious. Give me some credit here, Rikae.

I meant because she wasn't a wolf or the bear.

Originally Posted by Nienna

I'm just wondering, Morm, why you think that the bear would only try and kill wolves?

I think (please correct me if I'm wrong) it's because the wolves have a better chance of killing the Bear at Night than the village does of lynching it during the Day. Thus, it's in the Bear's best interests to pick off the wolves first. I think that's what someone said yesterDay, at least.

Okay, back to analyzing.

[Nienna]

Originally Posted by Stick

it's because the wolves have a better chance of killing the Bear at Night than the village does of lynching it during the Day. Thus, it's in the Bear's best interests to pick off the wolves first

Mmmk. That definitely makes more sense now. Thanks.

[Rikae]

Bear would not necessarily go after wolves. Silly to treat it as certainty that bear suspected Hakon as wolf. Artificially cuts down suspect list.

Mira, I was joking.

Agree with morm on lynching phantom. No seer to figure out his role. Lynching me would be a waste - you'll want me around later.

[mormegil]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Bear would not necessarily go after wolves. Silly to treat it as certainty that bear suspected Hakon as wolf. Artificially cuts down suspect list.

Right, make no assumptions and don't narrow lists down artificially. Sorry the only other way to narrow down the list is to look at who is alive from one day to the next. Take my thoughts or not I don't really care but I will state what I am thinking, it may be useful to some. I, unlike you it would seem, need to narrow the list down to a mangegable size and think of most likely scenarios given teh evidence we have up to this point. Did not Aragorn and the hunters do the same with the puzzle of Merry and Pippin, they were fairly close but not 100%.

Of course the bear might not go for wolves but it would make the most sense for him to do so, don't you think? Who poses the greatest threat to him? Wouldn't he love it to have killed all but 1 wolf so they still get 2 kills and then as the list narrows kill the final off? It would make the most sense to me to eliminate most rivals now while the list is still big.

At this point my main suspect is Rikae actually. Something isn't sitting right with me on her.

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Mira, I was joking.

So I totally missed that post the first time around when you made the original statement and though the you added later was for another post and...yeah. I need to read more carefully.

[autume98]

Originally Posted by mormegil

(assuming Autume is female)

You have assumed correctly.

[Macalaure]

We are so doomed now.

While I stayed away from Pitchwife yesterDay, too, it was phantom who was defending him, and in a way that looks like he guessed that Pitch was gifted. At the same time, as Rikae mentioned, he didn't do the obvious, which would be to urge Hakon's lynching to save Pitch. I'd really like to learn more about tp's thoughts yesterDay.

Lari killed by wolves: classic kill - she looked innocent to most and probably wasn't after any wolf in any serious way (note to self: check who might look better because of this).

Hakon killed by shapeshifter: interesting. Even though near the deadline most people seemed to think he was innocent, and this notion would probably be the common understanding toDay, Hakon caused plenty of confusion and smoke, and promised to continue to do so. Usually, a baddie wouldn't kill such a villager, unless Hakon was after something (if he was, then we have a really nervous and unexperienced bear - nobody was listening to Hakon anyway, just let him live and eventually change his mind), or, as morm said, the bear thought he was a wolf (note to self: who, judging from the posts, could actually have gotten that idea, because I doubt this scenario) or we have a bear who simply enjoys being unpredictable (note to self: check who could be candidates for that).

(another note to self: don't forget to analyse voting)

Originally Posted by Mira

I think (please correct me if I'm wrong) it's because the wolves have a better chance of killing the Bear at Night than the village does of lynching it during the Day.

The chances are almost exactly equal. I don't think this direction gets us anywhere.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Mirandir

Anyway, I can't say I'm too thrilled about Lari being killed so early, especially since she was just an ordo..

Disappointed she wasn't gifted, are you?

[Rikae]

The above should include a:

EDIT: x'd with autume... my post above, of course