Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXIX: Were-Librarians

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Form

Now... I've sat out a lot of these games since I was a carefree pre-university student, and I've not read most of the ones I've missed, so there's a lot of WW-culture current that I'm not up with--but one thing I have picked up on is that Nienna has something of an unreasonable penchant for being unreasonably lynched on Days 1.

Is she? I wasn't aware of that. She was the only suspicicous person to me at the time, though, so I don't think I would have voted differently even then.

Originally Posted by Form

Which means that, coupled with Mac's almost immediate reply to Nienna's post--a Day-ending post, suggesting she won't be back before the end of the Day to defend herself--I am really not liking Mac's quoted post.

I was around, I saw something very suspicious, and at the same time I saw two bandwaggons, liked neither, and wanted to try to put the village on a better rail (from my perspective). It's not like my suspicion against her was new at that time...

Originally Posted by Form

It's a little too easy. He sees a couple bandwaggons, says he doesn't like them, and then expresses this by starting--potentially--one of the easiest Day 1 bandwaggons there is?

I would disagree that my bandwaggon was particularly easy compared to others.


I do have to say that, reading Sally's later posts, I would probably have retracted to her. She criticised votes against her instead of suspicion against her and the way she tried to encourage people to vote Nienna doesn't look good either. Needless to say, this implies that Nienna is very probably innocent.


Alright, I'll be back with closer looks at the dead people and at the voting.

Wait, I see Nerwen put all of wilwa's posts into one. Nice. It's interesting: the libarians have every reason to be very afraid of the gifteds in this game, yet they chose someone apparently for the single reason to not leave a trail. Are they that afraid to kill the snitch? Why not simply get rid of any of the Sally-voters, for example? Are we dealing with inexperienced librarians, or with librarians who are already now under much pressure? In the latter case, since I doubt Nienna is a librarian, Nerwen would probably be - but then, why is Fea not dead? For now the librarians might be able to confuse us this way, but I think this strategy will come to bite them.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

since I doubt Nienna is a librarian, Nerwen would probably be - but then, why is Fea not dead?

Wolves are great about knowing when somebody genuinely doesn't know what they're talking about. It would have cast a lot of suspicion against Nerwen if I'd died in the Night, so I doubt they'd have gone for me. I mean... unless Nerwen isn't a wolf.

But whether or not she is, killing me in the Night does the following things:

1) the wolves lose a distracting force; wolves tend not to want to kill me early because I draw attention away from them (this works in reverse when I am actually a wolf, of course...). While I'm alive, the Seer dreams of me (my last three wolf games I was dreamed of first or second and I've been Fenrised several times), so the actual wolves are safe from that for a bit. And the village tends to wonder what I'm up to, leaving quiet wolves to hide out and watch, and contribute their 'suspicions.'

I'm really too valuable of a scapegoat for wolves to want to kill off so soon, whether or not my I-don't-know-what-I'm-talking-about vote for Nerwen was spot on.

2) This one applies more if Nerwen is a wolf: if I died in the Night, it would definitely cause people to take a very close look at my posts and my voting record. Since Nerwen's the only one I really mentioned suspicion of (even though it was less suspicion than "Well, I've gotta vote for someone..."), it would have really looked bad on her. If she's a Librarian, her co-workers would want, I suspect, to avoid that.

But mostly?

I suspect I just didn't die because wolves like to have me around to worry the village for them.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Boro: Whoa, look at this, B: for once I'm not trying really hard to kill you right away. I reserve the right to change my mind, of course, but for now you seem pretty okay.

Funny you should say that Fea, because I was just making a post about how the person who most needs to explain himself at the moment is Boro.

And now you jump on Mac's tentative scenario:

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Are we dealing with inexperienced librarians, or with librarians who are already now under much pressure? In the latter case, since I doubt Nienna is a librarian, Nerwen would probably be - but then, why is Fea not dead? For now the librarians might be able to confuse us this way, but I think this strategy will come to bite them.

–and start talking about me as if I'm suddenly the top suspect in the village. Why?

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Wolves are great about knowing when somebody genuinely doesn't know what they're talking about. It would have cast a lot of suspicion against Nerwen if I'd died in the Night, so I doubt they'd have gone for me. I mean... unless Nerwen isn't a wolf.

etc., etc., etc.

And then, why in Middle-earth do you feel the need to construct elaborate theories of why you're still alive, anyway? Why shouldn't you be? (Oh yes, because if I were a wolf I might have thought you were the Seer– ya-de-ya-de-ya– but that's an explanation with nothing to explain.)

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

And then, why in Middle-earth do you feel the need to construct elaborate theories of why you're still alive, anyway?

Did you miss the part where Mac asked why I'm still alive? Look, I'll quote it for your convenience, so there's no need to read what he wrote for yourself:

Originally Posted by Mac (again)

In the latter case, since I doubt Nienna is a librarian, Nerwen would probably be - but then, why is Fea not dead?

His question was, if you're a wolf, why didn't I die? I was merely trying to point out that regardless of your role, it would be silly of wolves to kill me, but if you were a wolf, it would be really, really stupid.

You're not really, really stupid, are you?

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

His question was, if you're a wolf, why didn't I die? I was merely trying to point out that regardless of your role, it would be silly of wolves to kill me, but if you were a wolf, it would be really, really stupid.

You're not really, really stupid, are you?

No I'm not– or a wolf. Where, in all your explanations for your continued existence, is the simple, obvious one? I mean, yesterDay you say you voted me at random, but now you seem rather attached to the idea of my guilt, don't you?

EDIT:X'd with Mac.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Nerwen

yesterDay you say you voted me at random, but now you seem rather attached to the idea of my guilt, don't you?

You're behaving defensively, overreacting.

I am convinced of nobody's guilt, though now I'm leaning toward suspecting you heavily of harboring a guilty conscience.

And I would say, "Oh, or I might be alive because I'm a wolf," except that's so obvious it wasn't worth mentioning. Of course I might be a wolf. We all might be wolves.

I daresay if I'm a were-librarian, the seer will already have dreamed of me and the village is well shot of me as soon as xe comes forth with the declaration, "Mon Dieu! Fea is, yet again, a wolf! We must kill her now!"

However, it would be highly unlikely that would happen this game, what with me not being a wolf and all.

Are you done overreacting to my responses to people now?

I'm going to pick up our lovely moddesses from their respective bus stop and airport terminal. No telling when I'll return, but it will obviously be before deadline.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

And I would say, "Oh, or I might be alive because I'm a wolf," except that's so obvious it wasn't worth mentioning. Of course I might be a wolf. We all might be wolves.

No, no, the explanation to which I referred was that I hadn't killed you because I wasn't a wolf. That is indeed stating the obvious– but by leaving it out you made it look as if there were actually a case for me to answer.

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

I daresay if I'm a were-librarian, the seer will already have dreamed of me and the village is well shot of me as soon as xe comes forth with the declaration, "Mon Dieu! Fea is, yet again, a wolf! We must kill her now!"

However, it would be highly unlikely that would happen this game, what with me not being a wolf and all.

Are you done overreacting to my responses to people now?

One of us is overreacting, but you know what? I'm not entirely sure it's me.

Look, I'm probing you for a reason, Fea. I'm currently starting to wonder if you might have been party to a Night conversation alone these lines:

"Let's not try for the Sally-voters– any of them could be protected, and we need to kill someone toNight. It'll be hard to get any of them lynched now, but we could try a wolf-on-wolf theory..."

Mind you, it would have been awfully brazen of you and Sally to go after me in unison yesterDay the way you did if you were her fellow... but I could see you doing it.

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

It's interesting: the libarians have every reason to be very afraid of the gifteds in this game, yet they chose someone apparently for the single reason to not leave a trail. Are they that afraid to kill the snitch? Why not simply get rid of any of the Sally-voters, for example?

Well, they got their numbers reduced by a third on Day One, so maybe they wanted a certain kill last Night to even things up, rather than one that might well get blocked.

EDIT:X'd since my last post.

[Boromir88]

Boro: Whoa, look at this, B: for once I'm not trying really hard to kill you right away. I reserve the right to change my mind, of course, but for now you seem pretty okay.~Fea

::chokes and dies on his chocolate chip pop-tart::

Ok...I lied maybe I didn't die, but still I choked.

Funny you should say that Fea, because I was just making a post about how the person who most needs to explain himself at the moment is Boro.~Nerwen

I'm assuming you mean my wierd behavior towards sally...to which I will explain now, because it failed.

Usually I try to look like the seer, hoping the wolves bite for it. Last game Lalaith bit and had me killed. However, I started to think, anytime I do this seer thing, I always make it look like I've caught a wolf on Day 1. So, I wondered if the wolves would think it would be more believable if I 'dreamt' of an innocent on Day 1.

I had it narrowed down to a few, and was trying to think of some sort of good seerish hints to drop. So decided to use Princess Bride quotes. So, I picked sally as the fake dream, because of our history in the lover role, and I knew she'd get any PB reference.

My plan was of course assume sally was innocent, trust my innocence, but at the same time get the wolves to think I was the seer. Wierd I know, and well now they know I'm not the seer, so I kind of botched that. But I have more tricks and the 2-left will probably regret not killing me early.

It's interesting, I'm pretty confident in Fea's innocence, because whenever she's a wolf it always seems like I die early...much like Mith. But now that she is not after, I'm more worried. My one weakness in these things seems to be getting charmed too easily. Agan buttered me up then viciously killed me, and sally well I feel totally used.

Edit: crossed with everyone since Nerwen's 109

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

Usually I try to look like the seer, hoping the wolves bite for it. Last game Lalaith bit and had me killed. However, I started to think, anytime I do this seer thing, I always make it look like I've caught a wolf on Day 1. So, I wondered if the wolves would think it would be more believable if I 'dreamt' of an innocent on Day 1.

I had it narrowed down to a few, and was trying to think of some sort of good seerish hints to drop. So decided to use Princess Bride quotes. So, I picked sally as the fake dream, because of our history in the lover role, and I knew she'd get any PB reference.

My plan was of course assume sally was innocent, trust my innocence, but at the same time get the wolves to think I was the seer.

Well, I'll accept your explanation for the moment. I noticed your Seer-hints, by the way, but as Sally didn't look any too innocent to me, I guessed you were faking it... but I didn't know why.

[Macalaure]

I can't help but wonder about the kill choice. I agree that going after Sally-voters might have been risky because of the ranger. If another librarian received a vote, they might have shyed away from that person, too, because the argument "they thought s/he was the seer, let's lynch who s/he voted for" is so foreseeable. However, for that very reason, assuming they were clueless about the seer, why not take advantage of that and frame somebody? Instead they went for the second-most traditional kill strategy (kill the trailless, the first being: kill everyone who's after us). How did they think they would really benefit from this choice? I mean, we managed to be fairly successful yesterday without any trail on Day1! I keep on thinking they made a poor choice, which makes me believe in inexperienced librarians. Then again, wouldn't that make a relatively weak librarian team? Hmm.....

[Macalaure]

Boro -> Mac - an unsuccessful test
Fea -> Nerwen - without reason
Sally -> Nerwen - crossed with Fea, so possible librarian-on-librarian
Boro -> autume - Boro, why is "A lot of commentary mixed in with a couple jokes" suspicious?
Nienna -> Sally - no real reason behind this, but Sally was talked about at this point, so no lib-on-lib, I think
Hakon -> same as Nienna, just more so
Mac -> Nienna
Form -> Hakon - looks genuine to me, though a concealed attempt to save Sally is not impossible
autume -> Nienna - says she goes with her suspicion, which looks good at first glance, but on closer inspection: she only starts being suspicious of Nienna five minutes before her vote. She had been neutral in her book all the time before.
Brinn -> Nienna - this vote puts Nienna in the lead before Sally and is obviously suspicious. I might be paranoid, but her reasons look a bit fabricated.
Nerwen -> Sally - obviously makes her look good
alona -> Mac - throwaway vote without any reason. I think a librarian would have tried to make her vote look more polished.
Shasta -> Sally - innocent

which makes:

guilty:
autume

shady:
Brinn

unknown:
Fea
Boro
Nessa (missing)

nice:
Hakon
Form
alona

innocent:
Nienna (also because of Sally's attempt to have her lynched)
Nerwen
Shasta

[Nessa Telrunya]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Brinn -> Nienna - this vote puts Nienna in the lead before Sally and is obviously suspicious. I might be paranoid, but her reasons look a bit fabricated.

While reading through what's been said, this caught my attention, and I thought it might be helpful if I went back to put up what Brinn said before.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

I'm here, I'm here. And a bit behind, I must say. I've hardly had time to catch up. I have no idea who to lynch so it's best I make a list...

Who I like:


Who I hate:
Sally
Fea
Hakon
Boro
Autume
Nerwen
Nessa Telrunya
Wilwa
Nienna
Mac
Shasta
Formendacil
Alonariel

In summary, I hate everyone. But unfortunately that won't help me come to a decision.

Give me a few more minutes to decide who I hate more. Be afraid...be very afraid.

Originally Posted by Brinniel

Alright, I've come to the best decision that I can in less than a half hour.

++Nienna

It's actually not random; I do have a reason (surprise!). Taking a look at her posts, particularly her vote post, she makes me uneasy. It's something about her word choices; they seem carefully placed and her behaviour just reminds me of wolves from the past.

Oh sure, I'll probably get Night-killed for being so quiet toDay. And if not, you all will suspect me for saying so. Meh. I don't care what you all do. I'm going back to my corner to brood in my own thoughts. So keep away.

EDIT: X-ed from the top of this page

So I went back to see Nienna's vote post as well.

Originally Posted by Nienna

The pull of sleep is calling me.

A few things before I go

1. Mac on Lists: I think he makes a really good point about the listers (if they are wolves) not wanting to leave out a fellow wolf. On the other hand it is something a really sneaky wolf might do. It gives a lot of deniability later when they can be like "I didn't even think to put them on my first list." Just a thought

2.

++Sally

She seems (out of everyone) the most wolf-like to me. She mentioned books a few times and even some better books to kill with.

3. Goodnight.

But Nienna's reasoning doesn't sound particularly wolfish to me, and she voted to kill Sally when it would've been easier to vote Nerwen, who already had two votes at the time.

But that's just what it looked like. I'd be glad to hear everyone's thoughts on this.

[alonariel]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Form -> Hakon - looks genuine to me, though a concealed attempt to save Sally is not impossible
alona -> Mac - throwaway vote without any reason. I think a librarian would have tried to make her vote look more polished.

which makes:

nice:
Hakon
Form
alona

My throwaway vote would definitely fuel your theory that the librarians are an inexperienced bunch during this game, and the fact that I had Newbie protection for the first Day certainly would be help. The roles for this game were chosen at random, after all...

Seeing Form on the nice list, I was a little surprised - I noticed his attempt to cast suspicion elsewhere for Sally as well. And though nice doesn't mean innocent, he was wary of voting for both Nerwen and Sally.

Originally Posted by Formendacil

Nerwen's protests have me chivalrously afraid to vote her. Sally's bandwaggon is admittedly weak--I agree full about her point re: Hakon, and I've already said I don't get Mac's Nienna vote.

How was the bandwaggon for Sally weak? She was practically on the hunt for Boro throughout the first half of Day 1, and then always reacting to the votes against her, rather than try and allay the suspicion that fueled those votes in the first place, as Mac said.

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

I'm going to pick up our lovely moddesses from their respective bus stop and airport terminal. No telling when I'll return, but it will obviously be before deadline.

Be sure to tackle glomp her for me! And make sure she gets some rest after that red eye flight! You know how Lari can be...

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

But Nienna's reasoning doesn't sound particularly wolfish to me, and she voted to kill Sally when it would've been easier to vote Nerwen, who already had two votes at the time.

But that's just what it looked like. I'd be glad to hear everyone's thoughts on this.

At this point, I'm leaning towards Nienna being innocent. Her phrasing didn't raise up any flags for me, and like you said, she could have used her vote to put Nerwen in the lead for being lynched, but she didn't. And in the end, she did vote to kill off a wolf, Sally. Unless the librarians are willing to kill one of their own to make themselves look innocent, but that's doubtful...

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by alonariel

Seeing Form on the nice list, I was a little surprised - I noticed his attempt to cast suspicion elsewhere for Sally as well. And though nice doesn't mean innocent, he was wary of voting for both Nerwen and Sally.

How was the bandwaggon for Sally weak? She was practically on the hunt for Boro throughout the first half of Day 1, and then always reacting to the votes against her, rather than try and allay the suspicion that fueled those votes in the first place, as Mac said.

I think Form meant the fact that Nienna and Hakon merely gave vague IC reasons for their votes. But as you say, Sally was acting pretty obviously guilty– or so I thought, anyway. (Experienced players do tend to have a sort of knee-jerk reaction to unreasoned voting, though.)

Originally Posted by alonariel

And in the end, she did vote to kill off a wolf, Sally. Unless the librarians are willing to kill one of their own to make themselves look innocent, but that's doubtful...

Believe it or not, that happens quite a lot, but I think it's pretty unlikely in this case. Sally's delay in voting Nienna to save herself is slightly eyebrow-raising, but she was probably waiting to see which out of Nienna and I would get the most votes.

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Nienna

So far I'm a little concerned about Mac. He has been doing the most analyzing so is not being analyzed.

Not my fault.

Originally Posted by Nienna

His suspicion of me had no real grounds except that he didn't like my phrasing?

There was more, but it's not important anymore now.

Originally Posted by Alonariel

My throwaway vote would definitely fuel your theory that the librarians are an inexperienced bunch during this game

Now slowly everybody: I was thinking aloud and ended up with it. I'm far away from saying that's how things are.

[Boromir88]

Well, I'll accept your explanation for the moment. I noticed your Seer-hints, by the way, but as Sally didn't look any too innocent to me, I guessed you were faking it... but I didn't know why.~Nerwen

I didn't suspect anything until her last post, before the DL, which looked frantic and desperate. Sally has always been a bit...unconventional, and probably why it's always hard to figure her out. I was wondering about her avatar of Hermione holding books, but took it as a crazy-sally trick, not librarian sally.

Getting the votes and stuff together from yesterday now