Narya and the Shire

[Pitchwife]

Indeed, our beloved enigma in yellow boots was the first thing that came to my mind in my first reading of the passage quoted. Cf Glorfindel in LotR Book II, The Council of Elrond:

'I think that in the end, if all else is conquered, Bombadil will fall, Last as he was First; and then Night will come.'

He also constantly lived close to the Shire, which can't be said of Gandalf.

Anyway, I take Gandalf's words power of another kind to mean a power different from that of the Great Rings, whether Elrond's or his own.

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Pitchwife

Anyway, I take Gandalf's words power of another kind to mean a power different from that of the Great Rings, whether Elrond's or his own.

That is the key, I think, regarding that quote, and Tom seems to fill the bill admirably. I see nothing else that would be a plausible possibility.

That said, I don't think Tom was the main reason the Shire was so little known to many non-Hobbits. I still think their 'smallness', not merely speaking of physical size, but also their overall lack of involvement in the affairs of Middle-earth prior to the War of the Ring, was the primary reason they 'flew under the radar' for so long.

[Fordim Hedgethistle]

I don't think we really need anything other than distance and the presence of an ongoing war to explain why it took Sauron a while to find the Shire. Mordor and Hobbiton are about as far apart as Oxford and Zagreb, and with the information he had Sauron only knew that the Shire was somewhere west of the Misty Mountains, which meant he had to scour a chunk of landmass the equivalent of western Europe with extremely limited resources... Sure he had armies at home but he can't rely on them (orcs marching around the West asking for the Shire is going to tip the other guys off...and not be terribly effective).

So he has some spies and the Nazgul and with them alone he has to find a place that even his closest neighbours (who are his enemies and unlikely to tell him) barely believe in!

Imagine being told the name of a single county (or canton, or province, or whatever) somewhere between the Atlantic Ocean, the Arctic Circle, the Mediterranean and Poland and now you have to find it with a handful of spies on horseback (if you're lucky) who have to ride all the way back to you at the Black Sea to report on their progress. I'm surprised he found it at all!

[Morthoron]

Hmmm...it has always seemed to me a stunning inconsistency (one of hundreds) that the WitchKing was unaware of the Shire prior to Gollum's interrogation. War between the Dunedain and Angmar lasted centuries, and a contingent of Hobbitish archers even went to battle. The armies of the Angmarrim swept across Eriador on several occasions while the Shire was in existance (the Hobbits migrated from Bree under a grant of land beyond the Baranduin by King Argeleb II in TA 1601, whereas the WitchKing wasn't fully defeated until the Battle of Fornost in TA 1975 -- almost 400 years). So much for geographical knowledge in a general of the WitchKing's caliber. *Shrugs*

There seems to be a general obliviousness to the Shire among all powers concerned: Gandalf is witless of the Ring's true character for decades, Saruman only spies on the Shire because he is jealous of Gandalf, and Sauron and the WitchKing haven't the slightest clue of hobbits and the Shire. Perhaps the true power of the Shire lies in its mundanity and worthlessness (after all, Bilbo's mithril shirt is worth many times the value of the Shire). The War of the Ring was lost due to misunderstanding, underestimation and shortsightedness -- the hallmarks of poor leadership -- which is why I always counter arguments that Sauron was more powerful than Morgoth by simply pointing out Sauron's sloppy management style. Morgoth actually won his war against the Eldar and Edain, and was only countered after the fact by the lazy Valar; whereas Sauron, although he won many battles, effectively lost both major wars he took part in.

[Gordis]

Originally Posted by Morthoron

Hmmm...it has always seemed to me a stunning inconsistency (one of hundreds) that the WitchKing was unaware of the Shire prior to Gollum's interrogation. War between the Dunedain and Angmar lasted centuries, and a contingent of Hobbitish archers even went to battle. The armies of the Angmarrim swept across Eriador on several occasions while the Shire was in existance (the Hobbits migrated from Bree under a grant of land beyond the Baranduin by King Argeleb II in TA 1601, whereas the WitchKing wasn't fully defeated until the Battle of Fornost in TA 1975 -- almost 400 years). So much for geographical knowledge in a general of the WitchKing's caliber. *Shrugs*

The Witch King still knew far more about Arnor geography than say Boromir:

The Hunt for the Ring, Marquette MSS 4/2/33, notes that 'the Witch-King ... had known something of the country long ago, in his wars with the Dúnedain, and especially of the Tyrn Gorthad of Cardolan, now the Barrow-downs, whose evil wights had been sent there by himself. Seeing that his Master suspected some move between the Shire and Rivendell, he saw also that Bree (the position of which he knew) would be an important point, at least for information. - Unfinished Tales, p. 348, RC p. 145
[The Witch-king] is uncertain what to do. The Bearer seems to be making eastwards, he is therefore surely bound for Rivendell (not the Havens). He would have naturally used the East Road; but will he do so, now that he knows he is pursued? Probably he will attempt to escape from the Shire at some unexpected point, through the Old Forest and the Downs, and there make cross-country to strike the Road beyond Weathertop, maybe. In that direction [he] now sends out [three Riders] separately, with orders to reassemble just east of Weathertop, and then return towards Bree along or near the Road. -RC, p164

You see, the WK knew the course of the East Road and the Greenway, the approximate position of Rivendell, the sites of Weathertop and Bree, the Barrow-Downs, the Old Forest.

What he didn't know was that there were a lot of halflings in Bree, that beyond the Baranduin there was a land populated by halflings and that the name of that land was "the Shire."

Now, it seems that the WK might have personally visited Barrow-Downs region and Bree only once - in 1409, when Cardolan had been ravaged and there was fighting around the Barrows and the Old Forest. But at this time there were yet no halflings in the region, likely none even in Bree. The Shire would be founded only 200 years later.

After the war of 1409, Angmar was subdued for a long time, so the WK remained in Carn-Dum (a long way from the Shire) until the war of 1974. At this time the Angmarians seemed to advance very swiftly from Carn-Dum directly on Fornost. The Shire was left completely out of the way.

Then we know that the WK had captured Fornost and "he was now dwelling, it is said, in Fornost, which he had filled with evil folk, usurping the house and rule of the kings." His rule of Arnor lasted most likely only a few months, so it seems he had no time to take a good tally of the conquered lands. Likely the Witch-Kng found all the records of Fornost destroyed, as the city had been ruined (it was known afterwards as "Deadmen's Dyke"). Probably the Shire was even not in the records. as the hobbits neither paid tribute/ taxes to Kings at Fornost, nor were they obliged to serve in the army. And indeed we can read in the Prologue:

At once the western Hobbits fell in love with their new land, and they remained there, and soon passed once more out of the history of Men and of Elves.

If some Angmarian troops ventured in the Shire, the hobbits most likely hid themselves.

As for the name of "the Shire", it was a local name, given by the hobbits themselves:

The Hobbits named it the Shire, as the region of the authority of their Thain, and a district of well-ordered business; and there in that pleasant comer of the world they plied their well-ordered business of living, and they heeded less and less the world outside where dark things moved, until they came to think that peace and plenty were the rule in Middle-earth and the right of all sensible folk.

So, maybe even in the records of the late Arnor the Shire was mentioned under another name, thus the WK had no way to learn about "the Shire" back in 1974-75.

As for the hobbit archers... Hmm... look at the quote:

To the last battle at Fornost with the Witch-lord of Angmar they sent some bowmen to the aid of the king, or so they maintained, though no tales of Men record it.

Nobody noticed them...neither Men, nor Elves and least of all the King of Angmar

[Inziladun]

Originally Posted by Gordis

Now, it seems that the WK might have personally visited Barrow-Downs region and Bree only once - in 1409, when Cardolan had been ravaged and there was fighting around the Barrows and the Old Forest.

Was there actual fighting around the Barrowdowns and Old Forest? After the taking of Amon Sûl by the forces of Angmar, it is said that a 'remnant' of the Dúnedain of Cardolan took refuge on the Downs and in the Old Forest, but there is no mention of actual battle there. Indeed, those Dúnedain did not come to an end until the coming of the plague to Eriador, so it seems likely to me the WK and his troops did not even get that close to the Shire.

[Pitchwife]

LotR Appendix B, The Tale of Years:

1409 The Witch-King of Angmar invades Arnor. King Arveleg I slain. Fornost and Tyrn Gorthad are defended.

If the Downs were defended, wouldn't that imply they were under attack?