Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXIII: The Cottage of Lost Play

[Rikae]

I think I often have a tendency to... overestimate people, somehow? I don't mean that in an insulting way, but if someone impresses me as being intelligent and then does something I consider foolish, I suspect them of evil intentions rather than considering the likelihood they simply made a mistake.
Perhaps that tendency is leading me astray where Nogrod is concerned, here... plus, it's generally a good rule of thumb that pleasant-seeming, uncontroversial types are the most dangerous.

Also...

well, it seems to me our hostess might want a certain balance to her wolf team. Lalaith, Inzil and Fea create just that - their styles are different enough, whereas Nog and Fea are perhaps too similar, in the sense of being more talkative and dominant. I don't know...

On the other hand...

Nogrod, I pointed out that your little scheme yesterday left us no chance to gather more evidence, and asked if you hadn't thought of that. (Another thing I just remembered - you asked me, earlier, what I would have done. What do you mean? In what situation?) Also, you'd like to see the wolf lynched... either of us? Eeeeh... if you were innocent, may I remind you, a specific one of us would be the wolf... and your choice would be of the utmost importance.

At any rate, rest assured - if I was really certain about you, I'd vote. Only a wolf has much reason to wait for others to vote first.

EDIT: X'd with Lalaith

[Rikae]

Also, why exactly can't an innocent? I started the day (actually, ended the day yesterDay) strongly suspicious of you, and that because of your actions.
A wolf in this situation would be wise to fan the flames of suspicion between the two innocents - burning bridges to one by attacking them right off the bat would be a riskier strategy than feigning confusion. Of course, all this "what would a wolf do" is a bit nonsensical - any one of us is capable of using either strategy. You're thinking too simply (deliberately or no) if you're comparing my actions to what a generic wolf would do in a situation like this... the question is, what would you, Lalaith or I do as wolves on this particular situation?

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

A wolf in this situation would be wise to fan the flames of suspicion between the two innocents - burning bridges to one by attacking them right off the bat would be a riskier strategy than feigning confusion. Of course, all this "what would a wolf do" is a bit nonsensical - any one of us is capable of using either strategy.

I'm not sure you're right in here. It all depends... But the goal of the wolf in this kind of "threesome" is quite clear. Assure one to vote the third. Not that more complicated.

And I can see you both doing that in the early hours of the Day. Now I just need to decide which one of you did it purposefully and who I'd need to make reconsider. That is simple as that. The wolf needs one vote in her favour and that's it. So she needs to be nice and uncontroversial looking at others run to each other's throaths and pick the results from outside or then be firm and agressive to gain a vote for her favour from the third party (Lalaith has fitted the first description and you Rikae the second). So how do I differentiate between you two?

You're thinking too simply (deliberately or no) if you're comparing my actions to what a generic wolf would do in a situation like this... the question is, what would you, Lalaith or I do as wolves on this particular situation?

Well looking at it from this angle Lalaith indeed looks suspicious: so calm and gathered - and how nicely she behaved towards me earlier in this ordeal we've all gotten through. And now she looks like ready to vote either one of us whoever either of us votes first... like she has the choice now - presuming we vote for each other as she looks to think.

I don't like that composed presence she has here right now. I'd really like to hear more from her.

But neither am I trusting you at the moment Rikae. Sorry, but I just can't.

Happily there are something like 20 hours to decide. Maybe some sleep - or some discussions - will help me / us to make right decisions.

[Rikae]

What would I have done? Certainly voted for the one I found the most suspicious, which would have gained us one more day to discuss and gather evidence before it was the last day. With hindsight being 20/20, that may not have been better, since it could have (if I calculate right) ended up with the three of us plus one of those "most suspicious" ones on the last day, but we would have another day's discussion and voting behind us now.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

With hindsight being 20/20, that may not have been better, since it could have (if I calculate right) ended up with the three of us plus one of those "most suspicious" ones on the last day, but we would have another day's discussion and voting behind us now.

Right you are, but think about the situation...

So let's say I had voted for Eönwë. Nerwen would have been killed last Night anyway (obviously as she was that innocent-looking; killing Inzil). So it would be you, me, Lalaith, Autume and Nessa. We would probably have lynched one of the two last ones with no better clue the next Day - and then the last wolf would have killed me, or one of you two - which one is not the wolf.

So on the next Day we'd have one of Autume/Nessa and two of us remaining now. So what's the next move? We/you choose Autume/Nessa - and that is a miss as we know now. So it ends up with us losing the game in favour of either of you two...

Not a great scenario.

[Rikae]

That was what I was thinking, but we can't be sure we would have voted that way - especially since the Eonwe/Autume/Nessa trio was suspicious more by default than anything else, and Nessa and Autume seemed to be just getting more involved at the time, too. I lacked stronger suspects at the time, but that may have changed at a later date.

[Lalaith]

This is very difficult. But I turn for inspiration to a very great detective, who declared that “when you have eliminated the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth". I said I would analyse the evidence, and here it is.
Day one –
Nogrod – is busy – there’s a lot of posts to go through. Wants to kill the careful and quiet ones. But then is worried about Shasta for being too busy. Note - this is odd. “likes” Inzil but nonetheless has a bit of a to and fro with him. Later complains about the talk being unproductive and there not being any suspicions, but doesn’t give up any suspects himself at this stage. Then he says he has been suspecting Rikae and Fea, but Boro challenges him on this and asks where. I can’t see it either. Gives a summary where he calls Fea ‘creepy’ but still feels positive about Inzil. Looks at this point like his biggest suspect is Nessa but then he likes her response so seems to backtrack. Does not vote until after McCaber’s reveal when he naturally goes for Fea.
Rikae – comes in and does her drunken rum thing. Mentions Shasta, Steve (who he?) and Pitchwife. Inzil picks up on something she says about chainsaws, but it’s all a bit random. That is the one thing we hear from her on Day One – she does not vote. Nogrod later calls this an underwhelming performance and I agree.

Day 2
Nogrod is busy again! He says he was ‘right’ about Fea. Hmm....I’m not sure that the suspicions he voiced on day one amounted to a categorical accusation. Isn’t quite as confident about McCaber as I would have liked, but he does say that McCaber should at some point give up his innocent dream...his reason however is that we might otherwise lynch them by accident. (He doesn’t mention the fact that it is useful to have a trusted innocent to listen to). Speculates about Boro’s vote for Inzil. This is an interesting point and could be taken either way. Also there is his analysis of Inzil’s vote, which (in retrospect) seems risky speculation if Inzil is a fellow wolf. But...he analyses all of us pretty closely and it would look odd if he didn’t do the same for Inzil. Interestingly, at this point he is much less happy about my Day One vote than he later seems to be. He then goes for Shasta, and tells everyone to talk...
He comes back to decide that McCaber, Inzil, myself are least suspicious and that he will also wait for Rikae and Nerwen to participate more. Then talks about the remaining four suspects and appears to be hovering towards Nessa again, or maybe Shasta. He defends Pitchwife, four minutes before deadline, but also Inzil. Then seems to get upset by the way voting is going (not sure why?) and goes for Shasta. It’s hard to read all this because so many posts are bunched together, but I suppose one interpretation is that a wolf-Nog could not suddenly vote for Pitchwife without having voiced suspicions. His vote for Shasta could be an acceptable ‘third way’ to save Inzil. Or there is the innocent interpretation, that he simply suspected Shasta.
Rikae – she comes in to say that she mistrusts Pitchwife, Eonwe and Nogrod. Her appearance is welcomed by Inzil. She then says she’s surprised that no-one has gone over yesterday’s votes (although in fact Nogrod has already done so). She concludes that Nessa, Eonwe, Pitchwife and myself are suspicious. She doesn’t find the non-voters suspicious but this may be a joke. She is herself a non-voter again.

Day 3
At this point there are no known wolves to analyse interaction with.
Nogs spends a long time looking through McCaber’s posts, trying to find an innocent. He fails to do so. He then goes over the votes, in less detail than the previous day, and includes his own. “choosing Shasta for Inzil because the latter would be playing” – that doesn’t make much sense actually. Narrows his list down to Nessa, Eonwe and autume, exonerating Rikae because he wants her to participate more. He seems to be drawing the same conclusions I did about Eonwe, but less firmly. He worries about a mix-up of mine about voting times. Later, he defends himself for defending Inzil, and has the same suspect list as Rikae – Autume and Eonwe. Then he gets worried about Nessa, having earlier said that she should be left alone. Then two people vote for her (Nessa) making it a draw. Nogs decides to leave it as a three-way lynch.
Rikae – insists that she would be ‘ashamed’ to win as the kind of wolf she would have been in this game. Is now participating more, analyses everyone, (although she never produces her promised Day 2 analysis) messes around a bit and comes down to the same suspect list as Nogrod. What happened to her earlier suspicions of Nogrod himself? Narrows things down to Autume and Eonwe, tosses a coin and votes for Eonwe.

Well, I found that very time-consuming and annoyingly not all that helpful for me to make up my mind. I can see why I trusted you both. On the surface, it would seem that Nogs has slightly more points in his favour than Rikae. But I am still inclined to think about Rikae’s failure to participate in the early days as a very strong point in her favour. And I just don’t like that triple-lynch.
So, back to today...
Day four – we are three. Both Nogs and Rikae are very vocal – arguing with each other - both are scaring me.
Rikae declares right away that she is almost certainly going to vote for Nogrod. However she is clearly contemplating the option of me being the guilty one too. This is a point in her favour because I had already indicated I was more likely to vote for Nogrod than Rikae...so if she was the wolf then she could probably risk just going for Nogs right away and I would follow suit. It looks like she is genuinely looking for the truth.
Nogrod is going from one to the other. If he is the wolf he is of course in the tricksy position of trying to persuade Rikae to vote for me, while also trying to keep me on side, so that I will vote for Rikae rather than him. Of course, if he is innocent then this could also work, he is genuinely searching for the guilty one.
This is not a situation I have ever been in before. I feel like I am tying myself up in knots, trying so hard to be fair. There is evidence, and there is instinct. From what I know of you both, the Nogrod of this Cottage could be a wolf, but the Rikae of this Cottage is a much more unlikely wolf.

I have spent much too long on this and have made myself late for Other Things. I will return later.

[Rikae]

Steve = Eonwe.

As for Day Two analysis, I went through it all in my memory but didn't find anything in particular worth saying - it seemed as if others were saying the same things I would have.

[Nogrod]

Nogrod was busy making an onion soup but had listened what the two others had said so far while occupied with the soup.

"You both have one thing that makes you look innocentish but another one of them has to be wrong. So which one?

Now Lalaith you surely let Fea down on Day1 if you were her mate. You'd have many options to help her discreetly there without anyone paying attention to it too much... well, possibly. After that you have voted early and safely - and for innocents (which surely innocents can do as well as wolves).

What Lalaith already pointed out, Rikae did herself state that she would be "‘ashamed’ to win as the kind of wolf she would have been in this game ". And I tend to agree with that. But then again what else could she have said in that situation? I mean I think she can make quite unforeseen turns and use quite unconventional tactics in tough situations...

So which one?

Meanwhile let me address a few things from your analysis Lalaith as I think you weren't actually too fair there. Just a moment."

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Only a wolf has much reason to wait for others to vote first.

Agreed...

And I do appreciate your ponderings there looking at what you have said earlier...

Nogrod, I pointed out that your little scheme yesterday left us no chance to gather more evidence, and asked if you hadn't thought of that. (Another thing I just remembered - you asked me, earlier, what I would have done. What do you mean? In what situation?) Also, you'd like to see the wolf lynched... either

of us? Eeeeh... if you were innocent, may I remind you, a specific one of us would be the wolf... and your choice would be of the utmost importance.

Okay, I'll explain it one more time. Let it be the last time.

YesterDay we were seven people. Of those Nerwen looked very good (giving the last vote to Inzil and lynching him on Day2) and Lalaith as well (leaving Fea into trouble on Day1 by introducing a new candidate for lynching when Fea already had two votes - and a bunch had one + McCaber was tied with her in two votes). I know I'm innocent myself so it left you Rikae. And as I know you had problems I thought you should be given a chance to show your qualities to whatever lord you serve.

That left me (us indeed as you agreed with the list as well) with three suspects: Nessa, Eönwë and Autume. Now they al had two votes at the DL and I had to make a decision. The probability that one of them was the last wolf looked to me about 95% (with the only exception of you possibly being the last one just sadly not being able to take part in the game) so I decided to let it be and get us four out of this mess alive.

I mean I couldn't guess which one of them three it was but being presented with a possibility to do away with all of them was just too good a deal to refuse. We would be going home after that.

But it was not to be. Either you or Lalaith is the last wolf and I was wrong - and another one of you about so. Only the wolf amongst us was happily smiling there when the results were given.

So I was thinking of survival over the evidence - well what evidence are you able to gather from Autume (or Nessa or Eönwë)? If they are the three probable wolves let's get it with them and live...

So asking "what you'd have done"? Well quite exactly "what you'd have done had you been there at the last minute"? Would you have chosen one and let the wolves do a kill by Night - and then leaving us into a situation of yet another choice between many of whom we can only throw a dice - and let the wolves kill once again with precision? And again?

There is a difference between the lynches and Night kills. The lynches are made by us all (and we can kill wolves that way), the Night-kills are made by the wolves (and never kill a wolf). So let's hail lynches and try to avoid chances for the wolves to decide who gets killed...


And yes, of course my decision will be of utmost importance, it will be the most important vote there is - alongside the other innocent's vote. That's why I feel frightened by your one-sided attack on me thus far. It looks like a wolf wishing to press her point on the other innocent more than a real innocent wishing to see the situation and ponder it for real, seeing the possibility of disaster if she got it wrong. The wolf could go for it trying to lynch one but an innocent needs to consider both options...

EDIT: X'd with Rikae