Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXIII: The Cottage of Lost Play

[Nogrod]

Well at the moment I'd say we should not lynch Nerwen (that would have been a suicidal act from a fellow wolf) or Lalaith (as I have argued already yesterDay based on her voting when Fea was in trouble).

These I think valid deductions / points right now.

Of the others I'm not so sure... there seem to be points for and against. So this requires some thinking - and I'm on it.

Btw. Lalaith, did you see I got some of that Sauvignon Blanc there in the cold you were so much looking after yesterDay? But they produce pretty nice Pinot Noirs at Sancerre region as well, you should try once...

[Lalaith]

*giggle, sip*
Ah well. It's good to be able to laugh at a time like this....

[Rikae]

I would say "if only I would have had the presence of mind to vote, all this unnecessary bloodshed could have been averted" but since I would have probably voted for Pitchwife, it's a good thing I didn't. Still, I'm tempted to vote right now just to avoid missing another deadline, but that would be completely unhelpful. I'll try to recall how everyone here interacted with the dead wolves as soon as I possibly can, and perhaps I can redeem myself.

[Nogrod]

Voting Day2


Lalaith for Pitchwife
Going with her Eönwë – Pitchwife –theory (them questioning McCaber’s believability and defending mutually as she says), choosing Pitchwife; after giving a reasonable sounding benefit of doubt to Nessa and Shasta.

Shasta for Nogrod
Annoyed to say the least, retaliating for my questioning of him? Who knows… no actual reason given though. (He said later I had jumped on him, really trying to lynch him on Day1 - which a) is not true and b) looks more like guilty defence seeing attacks all around; sorry Shasta)

.52 Pitchwife for Inziladun
Because of his denying of twisting Shasta’s words, following Eönwë on Shasta, Boro’s sudden death, Eönwë & Inzil buddying up.

.54 Nessa for Pitchwife (2 votes and the lead)
His vote for Shasta on Day1 was not sitting right with her and he seemed to phrase things strangely like trying to drop hints.

.59 Inzil for Shasta
Disliking Shasta’s way of popping in and out and not helping “our cause”…

.00 Nogrod for Shasta (2 votes and a shared lead)
Not willing to see Pitchwife lynched – and thinking McCaber at least to be around as he promised – so choosing Shasta for Inzil because the latter would be playing.

.00 Nerwen for Inzil (2 votes and a shared lead)
Well there actually wasn’t any clearly stated reason (but choosing between him and Pitchwife). She pointed to Inzil’s suspicious vote on Day1 earlier though.

(.01 Eönwë for Inzil – a tie-breaker, deleted
I think he just said something like “I’ll vote then too” or something in that.)

[Nessa Telrunya]

Well, so far, here is what I gather on everyone.

Nogrod voted for Fea on Day 1. Of course, that wasn't really much because that was just about the only thing he could do, since McCaber had revealed himself as the seer and exposed Fea. On Day 2 he voted for Shasta. I don't recall him giving a reason at that exact time, but earlier, he expressed disapproval with Shasta's lack of producing information. I don't find him particularly suspicious, but he's not without moments.

autume98 has been very quiet. She gives her opinions, yes, but somehow manages to do so without really being conspicuous. Day 1, she voted for Eonwe, and if I recall she did not vote yesterDay. She had voiced a suspicion of Eonwe once again, though.

Lalaith did not vote on Day 1, if I'm correct. Unless there was no way for her to be able to voice her thoughts, that's rather going against her, especially after McCaber had claimed Fea to be a wolf. Day 2, she voted for Pitchwife, but didn't seem particularly unreasonable when she justified it.

Nerwen seems to pop up when she feels like it. She didn't vote on Day 1, whih sort of put her on the line. But yesterDay she effectively helped to get rid of a wolf, so I find it hard to speak against her.

Rikae has a wolfish feel to her. She was a non-voter on Day 1, and I've already stated how that looks to me. She didn't vote on Day 2 either, so I'm a little dubious about that. All she's really done so far is give opinions.

Eonwe doesn't look too good right now. On day one, he tied up the vote for Fea by voting McCaber. If he were a wolf, that would be a reasonable move, saving one of his fellows. YesterDay his vote came after the deadline, but he was going to vote for Inzil. If he were innocent, easy enough to interpret, but if he weren't, could voting right at the deadline be a ruse? I can't remember if his post were particularly long or not.

[Lalaith]

Lalaith did not vote on Day 1, if I'm correct.

I did, I voted quite early (before McCaber's reveal) and I voted for poor Shasta.

[Eönwë]

A few comments...

Originally Posted by Nessa Telrunya

Eonwe doesn't look too good right now. On day one, he tied up the vote for Fea by voting McCaber.

You put that crazily out of context and I don't like it. First of all, he hadn't yet revealed. Secondly, at that time, as well as Fea, Nessa and Inziladun also had one vote, so I don't really get how I'd be helping Fea there. I don't like your twisting of the facts at all.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Such utter silliness on both their parts I was tempted to ignore it, but they both seem to take it quite seriously. Not that Inzil's taking Eonwe's silly accusation seriously makes them co-conspirators automatically, but the easier (and more reasonable looking) thing for wolf-Inzil to do with an innocent Eonwe's weird comment would be to turn it against Eonwe, not agree with it.

What? First we're both taking it seriously, then Inzil's taking it seriously? That's a little bit of a contradiction. And yes, in that instance, Inziladun was taking my joking suspicion and turned it into a real suspicion. I think he probably used me as a starting point here because he knew that when Shasta turned out to be innocent, it could be traced back to me rather than him (Inzil).

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Eonwe

What? First we're both taking it seriously, then Inzil's taking it seriously? That's a little bit of a contradiction.

No, it isn't, and your grasping at straws to paint me as suspicious doesn't make you look any better.

So, it was a joke now? You certainly waited long enough to say so. And yes, you both appeared to take it seriously, and Inzil is one of the "both" - he could have gone after you for casting weakly reasoned suspicions around, but instead he chose to act as though they were strong arguments.

[Nerwen]

Nerwen, who had gone back to her eerily familiar room to complete the transcription of the Inziladun Files, returned looking even more pleased with herself.

"Ready for the next installment?" she asked.

"Inziladun began Day Two by feigning dismay at Boro's death.

Replying to Nessa's naive (or perhaps pseudo-naive) statement that the people who voted for Fea couldn't be wolves, he said:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Well, I can conceive of scenarios when they might vote for a fellow who is caught with no hope of escape, just to deflect some suspicion from themselves. But I don't think that's a concern in this case.

Then he tried to butter up McCaber.

Then Pitchwife asked him why he thought the innocent Boro had voted him, and he said:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I can't say what his thoughts were, of course. But he asked things of me which I complied with, then he immediately voted and left the room before hearing my response. Why? I don't know.

Which of course, sounds like an explanation, but isn't when you look at it closely. A lot of what he said was like that. I'll tell you what," Nerwen added, with real admiration, "he may have been evil, but he was good at it!

Well then, after that he's clever enough to defend McCaber against Eönwë's semi-suspicion.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I can see no logical reason a Wolfcaber would have given up his fellow on the first Day. If this is a ruse devised by the wolves, it's insanely risky for them.

He explains (at Nogrod's request) why he voted McCaber after suspecting Fea, and denies that he has shown the "trust" in Nogrod that the latter says makes him uneasy.

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I did say I found her a bit unnerving, but I didn't think it enough to induce me to vote for her. I certainly never said she was innocent.

'Overwhelming trust for you'? I'm afraid not, good sir. You've been making sense, and I don't see in you anything in particular at the moment that gives me chills, but you are certainly not beyond suspicion.

Now Nogrod flip-flopped on Inzi, saying that he was "considerate and reasonable" and "made good points", but also that his vote the day before looked bad, and that he made him uneasy.

This could be a wolf deliberately throwing out a weak suspicion of a comrade.. or an innocent disarmed by Zil's move in defending McCaber.

Inzi also denied Pitchwife's accusation that he was twisting Shasta's words. Then he went to bed, saying he "eagerly awaited" Shasta's case against him.

That's all he'd said about Shasta by that point– by this time Nogrod was after Shasta pretty strongly; I suppose Inzi thought he could sit back and relax.

On his return he finally made a definite accusation, against Nessa:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

I don't know Nessa well, as she hasn't been a part of our Downs community terribly long. However, such an adamant statement, that the Fea voters could not be wolves, and Fea saying no one should vote for Nessa makes me uneasy. Again, my suspicion of her (and McCaber in turn) the previous Day was based upon the fact that she voted for Fea immediately after Fea voted for her, and, after it was posited that Nessa's was a revenge vote, she denied it. Her 'explanation' of the vote never rang true to me. Couple that with her urging McCaber to reveal his dream after he's already said he wished to keep it to himself for the moment, and Nessa is highly suspect to me.

I think this looks like a genuine attack, which makes Nessa look more innocent.

He then casts suspicion on Pitchwife,

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Another one wanting McCaber to divulge information about his dream. And for credibility? He gave us the name of a wolf on the First Day! What more do you need?

Eönwë (sort of– at least he castigates him for apparently continuing to doubt McCaber), and throws some more fuel on Shasta's pyre:

Originally Posted by Inziladun

Shasta I still don't trust. He seems to have pretty well continued his previous pattern of popping in and out without saying anything to help our cause.
I have yet to see his case against four of us, of which one was me.

Then he voted Shasta.

Conclusion? Well, I'm inclined to leave Nessa out. Nogrod's attitude is... odd: he made some telling points against Zil, and yet was full of praise for him. Finally, there continues to be a sort of link between Zil and Eönwë. Whether this because Zil is using him, or because they're in it together, I couldn't say at this point."

EDIT:X'd with three Rikaes.
EDIT2: fixed quotes,

[Lalaith]

*passes over bottle of Captain Morgan* Look, the rum hasn't gone!

As for yourself, Ms Rikae, to say your lack of voting is unhelpful is understating things.
But counter-intuitively, it may speak for your innocence. From what I know of you on the Downs, I believe a wolfish Rikae would surely be more hands-on. But *shrugs* maybe I'm wrong. I've been wrong about a lot of things since I got here.

[Nogrod]

Okay, we're seven left and one of us is a cursed one.

Nessa Telrunya
Nogrod
autume98
Lalaith
Nerwen
Rikae
Eönwë

Of these I'd suggest - as I've done - we pull out for the time being both Nerwen and Lalaith because of their voting at crucial moments (if this continues for a few Days and they're alive I might change my mind with them but for now sure it woud be stupid to lynch either of them). Also knowing myself to be an innocent I'll drop myself from the list as well. That leaves me with the following list:

Nessa Telrunya
autume98
Rikae
Eönwë

I would bet quite a lot that our last wolf is to be found from that list. But who could it be?

I really would like to hear more from Rikae - and as a person I know well from the 'Downs I know she can make a difference in a tight spot. So I'd discourage lynching her as well - at least toDay - wishing to see what she could bring to our discussion if she finally got into it toDay.

Which would leave me Nessa (points for and against), Autume (basically nothing) and Eönwë (points for and against).

So that's what I'm going to look for toDay - unless the Day presents some other developements that look like more promising...

*Glances at Lalaith: Maybe some Mojitos' now, just to refresh our minds, any Havana Club there in the fridge?*

[Lalaith]

Hmmm...well the mint is quite dry and the limes not quite fresh, but hey, even if it wouldn't pass muster at Asia de Cuba, I'm sure we can rustle something up that's reasonably respectable...

I too am concerned about both Nessa and Autume...I can't find enough to exonerate them. But Eonwe, after his performance yesterday...could a wolf really behave like this?

I also am somewhat worried that I have been too complacent about you, friend Nogrod. But I am unlikely to vote for you today - it's when you stay alive too long that I will start to really worry, because an innocent Nogrod would soon be wolf-food, I fear.

And, as I have stated elsewhere, I must make up my mind soon.

[Nogrod]

Sitting down in the familiar armchair Nogrod felt the impact of the extreme events and a few too many early drinks making him feel stunned... Maybe I just need a little nap...

But before falling into sleep he was awaken by a noise he wasn't aware where it came from. But anyway he was awake.

"Eönwë's "almost vote" for Inzil yesterDay is an enigma to me I admit. Now if he were his packmate - the last of them - would he have put himself into the spotlight like that? And why all this show toDay? I mean I'm tending to believe him more innocent than guilty right now, but for the show of it. My reason tells me that he should have not voted his mate in the last instance and then back off from it. He could have tens of nicer ways to go about that situation. Okay, something bothers me with it but I'd tend to think him right now more innocent than guilty.

Nessa's row with Fea on Day1 was an interesting one and a possible wolf-on-wolf - but also something an innocent might have done. Looking back it was the wolf-Inzil who pointed out Nessa's insistence that it was not a retaliation vote - which none of us had noticed. Maybe we should check that whether it was one of Inzil's schemings or whether it was for real (and he knew how they had fumbled with it). But anyway, yesterDay Nessa nicely "helped" Inzil giving Pitchwife a second vote after Inzil had gotten one putting him to a lead - and eventually to his death.

Autume I can't say anything about right now. I have thought she should be given the benefit of doubt here but we need to lok at her closer now...

EDIT: X'd again... how come we post in bursts like this all the time...

[Lalaith]

I've just gone and checked and it seems I misremembered, it wasn't quite early, it was only six minutes before deadline that I voted. Sorry about that.