Tol-in-Gaurhoth LXIII: The Cottage of Lost Play

[Lalaith]

So, here's my impression of my fellow houseguests.

Nessa Well, I have already discussed her as part of my Fea analysis. Her comments today are disingenuous – particularly that people voting for wolves can’t be wolves, and this of course includes her.
Pitchwife/Eonwe
I will analyse these two together as today they seem to be twins.. First, the two of them have (to me at least) fairly protracted and pointless conversation about McCaber possibly not being the seer – particularly as Eonwe eventually answers his own question (that a false seer claim actually gives us two wolves).
Then there is their mutual defence system. I make a sympathetic comment to Pitchwife about his error over McCaber, and Eonwe answers with a defence of his own actions, even though no-one (as far as I can make out) has questioned them. Then Pitchwife steps in to question my comments about Eonwe. I answer them, and he defends Eonwe once again. This is all really suspicious, to my mind.
Rikae – participating more, and her analysis just now was good. She has also picked up on the Pitchwife/Eonwe bond. I am inclined to trust her for now.
Inziladun – active, raising good points – dismissing the ‘McCaber is a fake’ argument briskly - so again, inclined to trust for now.
Shastanis Athreduin – spent yesterday being very ‘busy’, but not, to my mind, helpful, which is why I voted for him. This busy unhelpfulness is further underlined by his failure to vote. Has been arguing with Nogrod today – although this is at least more ‘substantial’ behaviour it is also overly defensive so I am still feeling anxious about him.
McCaber- Known innocent so has no agenda – we need to remember this.
Nogrod – I trust him for now as he appears to be working hard using evidence and analysis to get solutions; only flaw is that he does not always take the differing personalities of others into account. Actually, my chief worry about you, my friend, is that this strange house has played such tricks on your mind that you are claiming Sancerre as a pinot noir.
autume98 – we’ve had very little but uncertainty from her. Understandable, perhaps, but still, clouds of confusion are useful things to hide in.
Nerwen – I agree with what little she’s said so far, but I am getting impatient with her lack of participation.

[McCaber]

All right, I'm back functioning again. Probably around until the end of the day.

So far I think what has been said so far toDay is helpful. Now we need people to talk about each other's analyses and what they think about them. (Taking a cue from Nogrod's book here, because that's at the core of finding suspects.)

[Nessa Telrunya]

So what is everyone else thinking around now? We need to be ready to discuss before we vote, and the deadline isn't that far off. I'm interested in the thoughts of those of us who haven't spoken much.

[McCaber]

Well, I know one person I can trust for sure. There are a few who still frighten me a bit, and a few who have gotten more onto my good side. And then come those who have not said enough to show me much of them at all. Nerwen, guess which one you're in right now.

What? Can't a seer make fun of people too? This is a high-stress job we're talking about.

[Lalaith]

I need to vote now (as stated elsewhere). I appear to have four main suspects and clearly they can't all be wolves. So my process of elimination involves asking myself - could there be an innocent explanation?

First off, Nessa. I have speculated on wolf-on-wolf voting, but the alternative is that Nessa simply found Fea guilty-like. And after all, she was right - Fea was guilty. Then her comment today about wolves not voting for each other may also have been based on a genuine belief. So, benefit of the doubt for her.

Shasta - his explanation for yesterday is that he was trying to fulfill the hostess' edict - and he did, I have now noted, explain his failure to vote elsewhere. I am never impressed by defensiveness but some perfectly innocent people do get prickly when prodded. So, benefit of the doubt for him too.

Then, Eonwe and Pitchwife. I may be being dense, but I can't really think of a likely innocent explanation for their double-act. It is however possible that one of them is an unwitting stooge. Which? Actually I think it is more likely to be Eonwe - he is being defensive, and Pitchwife might be taking advantage of this and fostering him as an ally. So, my conclusion is...
++Pitchwife

[Nerwen]

Originally Posted by Lalaith

Nerwen – I agree with what little she’s said so far, but I am getting impatient with her lack of participation.

"All right, all right, I'm participating!" said Nerwen hurriedly.

"One thing I had forgotten was that everyone in a tie gets double-lynched (for now). That makes it a good deal less likely that Nogrod is a wolf, unless Shasta is too– for would a wolf be able to resist letting the Seer and an innocent die, just by "forgetting" to vote?

'Now Shasta I think is indeed rather suspicious– he persists treating our horrifying predicament as though it's just... oh... I don't know," she frowned, "some kind of game.

'But then Nogrod has been going after him for this, which looks pretty innocent." Nerwen shrugged. "I don't know... I suppose it could be a wolf trying to drop a hint to his packmate.

'The more actually suspicious votes were from Inzi– tying McCaber with Fea– and Pitchwife– creating the three-way tie. However, I believe Pitchwife says he missed Lal's vote.

'I think we should remember, also, that the total number of votes cast was small, so ties were almost bound to happen at some point."

EDIT: X'd since Lalaith at #176. (I was called away, came back and posted without refreshing. Silly of me.)