WWLXII: Dead Men Do Tell Tales

[Nerwen]

post deleted because I accidentally quoted my last post instead of editing it.

[Isabellkya]

If I'm lynched, game over and innocents lose.

Of course I'm hoping that there isn't a Mutineer, a Cobbler, and an Ordo - here. Because that would just be.... a bit evil.

If that is the case, trying to figure out who the real Mutie is, Cobbler?

I think it could be Gwath just a smidge more over Nerwen.



If Nerwen were the Mutineer, then why choose Shasta over Gwath?


hmm.
I'll probably make my vote in the next twenty minutes. Since I'll be blowing stuff up all day, since this is our last Day... and Miss Mod said to make the most of it.


X'd with Nerwen.

[Isabellkya]

Day One:

Day two:
Nerwen -> Zil
Mith -> Nog
annu -> Shasta
Rikae -> Shasta (2)
Kath -> Annu
Eomer -> Mira
Shasta -> Rikae
Wilwa -> Eonwe
Rikae -- Shasta
-> Mira (2)
Nog -> Eomer
Mac -> Eomer (2)
Boro -> Mira (3)
Zil -> Annu (2)
Gwath -> Mira (4)
Izzy -> Mac



Day Three:

Sally -> Shasta
Nog -> Annu
Boro -> Nog
Rikae -> Sally
Mith -> Nog (2)
Shasta -> Annu (2)
Wilwa -> Gwath
Eonwe -> Gwath (2)
Nerwen -> RIkae
Kath -> Annu (3)
Lommy -> Gwath (3)
Zil -> Rikae (2)
Mac -> Gwath (4)
Nerwen -- RIkae
Izzy -> Nog (3)
Nerwen -> Annu (4)
Gwath -> Annu (5)


Day Four:

Rikae -> Gwath
Nerwen -> Gwath (2)
Mith -> Sally
Lommy -> Sally (2)
Izzy -> Izzy
Eonwe -> Sally (3)
Zil -> Sally (4)
Boro -> Gwath (3)
Mac -> Gwath (4)
Shasta -> Sally (5)
Sally -> Gwath (5)


Day Five:

Nerwen -> Gwath
Mith -> Izzy
Lommy -> Mac
Kath -> Gwath (2)
Boro -> Nog
Eonwe -> Zil (not bolded)
Boro --Nog
Izzy -> Nerwen
Boro -> Kath
Zil -> Kath (2)
Shasta -> Kath (3)
Mac -> Kath (4)
Nerwen --Gwath
-> Izzy (2)
Mac -- Kath
-> Izzy (3)



Day Six:

Izzy -> Mac
Nerwen -> Mac (2)
Lommy -> Mac (3)
Mith -> Gwath
Eonwe -> Mac (4)
Boro -> Mac (5)
Shasta -> Lommy
Izzy --Mac
-> Lommy (2)
Mac -> Lommy (3)
Nerwen --Mac
-> Lommy (4)


Day Seven:

Mith -> Mac
Eonwe -> Mac (2)
Nerwen -> Mac (3)
Gwath -> Mac (4)
Izzy -> Nerwen


Day Eight:

Eonwe -> Shasta
Nerwen -> Eonwe
Shasta -> Eonwe (2)
Izzy -> Shasta (2)
Gwath -> Eonwe (3)





Actually, I'll hold off on my vote.
I'm posting this now, will add analysis a bit later.

[Isabellkya]

Day Four voting speaks in Gwath's favor... if one of Mac/Sally is a wolf.

Day Three a bit as well... again if one of Mac/Lommy is a wolf.

Day Five, does Nerwen come out of the gating, wanting to vote for GWath in hopes that he would be lynched, since the Day before he almost was?

Some of Nerwen's voting is a bit in her favor. She has frequently voted at the beginning of the line. So that speaks a bit in her favor, because what wolf would vote first.. yet it could be due to time constraints. However, her voting choices are suspect. Wolf having to vote that early.. can probably be a bit more daring in their vote... try to get the votes going in that direction?

[Mithalwen]

Oh Issy why do you have to confuse things by becoming a sane useful member of society now?

Has Gwath explained his absence anywhere? If so Imissed it... I was a bit suspicious of his days grace but of course none listened to me and then I was lilled...coincidence? Or the reason I was killed? Hmm

[Boromir88]

I'm usually not into off the wall conspiracy theories, but Nerwen still being alive at this is scary. I will actually agree with Nogrod on his point that the dynamics of the game are interesting, but whoever the last wolf is (assuming it's not Nerwen), would have to be pretty confident to take away one of his/her choices to lynch...probably knowing that Nerwen will not be lynched...that is again assuming Greenie is not a co-conspirator who luckily picked a wolf to lead us all into thinking we can have a trusted innocent.

Now what I will say that these dynamics are different, I think I was killed a couple nights ago so there could be one less person who would unquestionably vote for Mac.

So, Nerwen, like I said...I don't believe in crazy conspiracy theories, if you are the last wolf you and Greenie without question will deserve the win for your super play. If you are innocent, consider why you are still alive. Whoever the last wolf may feel you were more likely to vote with him/her than Shasta would have...hence why Shasta was killed and not you.

Another hint, it might be good to do what I like to on Day 1 if it's possible.

[Mithalwen]

Stir up trouble and get yourself lynched as an ordo? Not helpful Boromir!!!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm usually not into off the wall conspiracy theories, but Nerwen still being alive at this is scary.

As I agree with this, wondering still why the mutineer let her live and vote toDay (and especially not to be voted toDay eg. narrowing the choices to two: the mutineer and the other one), I still think we need to remind ourselves of the fact that has been voiced afew times but nit I think too lately.

If Greenie is a spy-impostor the real-seer would know that (Greenie was killed already on Night1!) and even if s/he got killed / lynched without being able to warn us beforehand, it would be totally outrageous, reckless and irresponsible for her/him not to come forwards afterwards claiming her/his role...

So Nerwen basically can't be a mutineer.

It leaves Gwath and Izzy.

I've thought Gwath quite a lot lately as you see and think it's more probable he's not a mutineer than that he is. Nothing's certain in WW of course, but...

That would leave Izzy. Basically because I have no good case against her being a mutineer - like I have with the two others.

EDIT: X'd with the fellow-gunner

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Mithalwen

Oh Issy why do you have to confuse things by becoming a sane useful member of society now?

Maybe because now there's a chance of her getting lynched, she tries to look as innocent/helpful as possible.

[Isabellkya]

I'm going to continue on, since I only had a minute or two to touch on it earlier.

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Day One:

Day two:
Nerwen -> Zil
Mith -> Nog
Annu -> Shasta
Rikae -> Shasta (2)
Kath -> Annu
Eomer -> Mira
Shasta -> Rikae
Wilwa -> Eonwe
Rikae -- Shasta
-> Mira (2)
Nog -> Eomer
Mac -> Eomer (2)
Boro -> Mira (3)
Zil -> Annu (2)
Gwath -> Mira (4)
Izzy -> Mac

Day Three:

Sally -> Shasta
Nog -> Annu
Boro -> Nog
Rikae -> Sally
Mith -> Nog (2)
Shasta -> Annu (2)
Wilwa -> Gwath
Eonwe -> Gwath (2)
Nerwen -> Rikae
Kath -> Annu (3)
Lommy -> Gwath (3)
Zil -> Rikae (2)
Mac -> Gwath (4)
Nerwen -- Rikae
Izzy -> Nog (3)
Nerwen -> Annu (4)
Gwath -> Annu (5)

If Gwath is a mutineer, and you think Eonwe, Lommy, and Mac as possible Mutineers - then why did all three of them vote for Gwath this day? Gwath was going to be lynched, until he voted for Annu. If Nerwen and him are mates (which I don't think is the case.) - then it could be argued that Nerwen was trying to save him. Of course, if she is a Cobbler, then she could've been trying to save a suspected MutieGwath.

Day Four:

Rikae -> Gwath
Nerwen -> Gwath (2)
Mith -> Sally
Lommy -> Sally (2)
Izzy -> Izzy
Eonwe -> Sally (3)
Zil -> Sally (4)
Boro -> Gwath (3)
Mac -> Gwath (4)
Shasta -> Sally (5)
Sally -> Gwath (5)

Between Sally and Gwath. If Gwath is a Mutie - and Mac is one - then why would Mac vote for him in this case? Or could it of been two Mutie's on the board... and Mac had to choose between two of his mates? Though Mac's vote for Gwath didn't put him in the lead, just possibility of lead. Trying to lynch an innocent, or jumping on the wagon to try and make himself look good?

Day Five:

Nerwen -> Gwath
Mith -> Izzy
Lommy -> Mac
Kath -> Gwath (2)
Boro -> Nog
Eonwe -> Zil (not bolded)
Boro --Nog
Izzy -> Nerwen
Boro -> Kath
Zil -> Kath (2)
Shasta -> Kath (3)
Mac -> Kath (4)
Nerwen --Gwath
-> Izzy (2)
Mac -- Kath
-> Izzy (3)

If Mac and I are mates, then why would he switch his vote at the last second to me? He could've left it on Kath.

Day Six:

Izzy -> Mac
Nerwen -> Mac (2)
Lommy -> Mac (3)
Mith -> Gwath
Eonwe -> Mac (4)
Boro -> Mac (5)
Shasta -> Lommy
Izzy --Mac
-> Lommy (2)
Mac -> Lommy (3)
Nerwen --Mac
-> Lommy (4)

If Mac was so certain that Lommy was a Mutie, then why did he wait to make his vote for her? Lommy didn't exactly wait to place her vote for him. Nor did Nerwen and myself. Though we both changed to Lommy.

Day Seven:

Mith -> Mac
Eonwe -> Mac (2)
Nerwen -> Mac (3)
Gwath -> Mac (4)
Izzy -> Nerwen

I'm the only voter who didn't vote for Mac. If I was his mate, why wouldn't I just jump on the wagon? I think once Nerwen placed her vote, his fat was pretty sealed in terms of voting.

Day Eight:

Eonwe -> Shasta
Nerwen -> Eonwe
Shasta -> Eonwe (2)
Izzy -> Shasta (2)
Gwath -> Eonwe (3)

Both candidates on the table were innocents?




Edit. Fixed a rogue tag.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

Of course I'm hoping that there isn't a Mutineer, a Cobbler, and an Ordo - here. Because that would just be.... a bit evil.

That seems very likely though...