WWLXII: Dead Men Do Tell Tales

[Thinlómien]

I must say I like that latest post of Mith's a lot, she makes a few good points - especially the one about Greenie and Nerwen. I'm pretty confident of her innocence now. But I'm still a bit hesitant to say Nogrod would kill Greenie on Night2 without a specific reason - I'm sure he would not extend such courtesy on Night3 but it was Night2... maybe if his mates pressured him and he had no better option to offer or he went to sleep early for once and left it up to them... or if they saw some gifted-ish in Greenie. (Or then I'm misjudging Nogrod and all this speculation is in vain. )


edit: xed with Shasta

[Shastanis Althreduin]

I would call it metagaming, Lommy, and metagaming is bad.

[Boromir88]

Yes - my second thoughts of him are partly due to you and Rikae's suspicion against him, and that's no small part. I think I'm still on my way to learning not to trust anyone except myself in ww, but I'm progressing slowly because it's so tempting to trust nice and smart people and sometimes it's also very beneficial. But I have the feeling that too often I'm sitting here and accusing people or agreeing with them and waiting for someone to tell me "you're right here, you're wrong there" and solve it for me (maybe one of the reasons why I want Nogrod back so badly ).~Lommy

It's not about trusting people, you can't really 'trust' people in WW. It's being able to trust yourself, trust not only the 'evidence' but your instincts, feelings...etc. Your answer was 'yes but...," ok I guess I will have to accept that, but trust that instinct until you have reasons not to.

Nah, I assumed you were a clever, entertaining trickster (I actually learned a few tricks from watching you). But if you insist, I'll consider you boring.~Rikae

Thanks! (I mean about the entertaining and learning tricks), I don't want to be considered boring. But the truth is I need people to have fun with, which is why I may have been in an intense, cautious mode earlier, but hopefully I'm not switching over to boring.

I'm not sure what I think about Shasta's arrival...I mean I like it, because it looks really good, but it's a bit of a surprise, it's caught me off guard...hmm

Edit: crossing and I'm not sure what I want to think of this spur of posts!

[Thinlómien]

I don't think there's any point in lynching Greenie. If she is a bluffing cobbler - which I doubt - we won't gain anything (except uncertainity about a certain person) but we will risk our seer by showing to the wolves that s/he's still alive! And if she's the real seer, we will have a known innocent which we already kind of have and we lose the only ghost who's made an effort to be helpful this far.

As for lynching Annu, well, I have the feeling it would reveal nothing but I should maybe reread yesterDay to judge it better. I think the biggest problem is simply that her lynch was sort of a side issue especially towards the end of the Day and if I recall correctly, not nearly everybody was invlolved in the debate about her.


edit: xed with Shasta

[Thinlómien]

Shasta, Eönwë - ooh you are actually correct, now that I think of it. In this game, the seer does not have to be afraid of taking his/her dreams to the grave with him and take chances on when to reveal, since s/he can always do it as a ghost. But I still trust Greenie and live in the sad belief we've lost the seer already, it seems the most porbable to me.

Originally Posted by Shasta

I would call it metagaming, Lommy, and metagaming is bad.

Hey, what's meta-gaming? That I say Nogrod wouldn't be inclined to kill Greenie so early?


edit: xed with Zil, Mith, Eönwë and Boro

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

I'm pretty confident of her innocence now. But I'm still a bit hesitant to say Nogrod would kill Greenie on Night2 without a specific reason -

Maybe unless he guessed she were gifted, I don't know. I won't vote for him in absentia today. But I may well go for Sally. She sort of fits my offender profile ...

[Mithalwen]

Because if is fairly safe to assume night kills are ordos or conspirators, killing Nerwen would pretty well eliminate any doubts about Greenie's seerhood.

[Mithalwen]

Just that after a whole eveniong of displacement activity I realised I should get a grip before I turned in to a pumpkin....

[Boromir88]

I'm not so much suspicious of Mith's post as I am, the sudden spurt of posts after it...I mean after a pretty slow day, between mostly Lommy, Rikae, Mac, and myself, everyone starts popping out of the woodworks.

Maybe I'm not taking into consideration timezones and people being out for various reasons, it's just interesting how multiple people popped out.

[Eönwë]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm not so much suspicious of Mith's post as I am, the sudden spurt of posts after it...I mean after a pretty slow day, between mostly Lommy, Rikae, Mac, and myself, everyone starts popping out of the woodworks.

Maybe I'm not taking into consideration timezones and people being out for various reasons, it's just interesting how multiple people popped out.

Well, I'm in the same timezone as Mith is (and I usually am here around this time anyway), but I don't know why Shasta suddenly chose to appear...

edit: also, by the way he started his post, it seems like Shasta had just been following the thread, and decided to comment at that point.

[Eönwë]

Anyway, I have to go in the next half-hour, so it's nice that there are more people around.

But everyone suddenly seems quite innocent to me toDay...

[Mithalwen]

++Sally

BTW If someone has time a vote summary might be an idea incase there is the risk of more modfire,...

Goodnight.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

I'm not so much suspicious of Mith's post as I am, the sudden spurt of posts after it...I mean after a pretty slow day, between mostly Lommy, Rikae, Mac, and myself, everyone starts popping out of the woodworks.
Maybe I'm not taking into consideration timezones and people being out for various reasons, it's just interesting how multiple people popped out.

Well it does seem scarily like "ok now somebody else posted I may have to jump in too and stop hiding in my corner" but I won't start pointing fingers at people because of that - maybe our loudmouth debate scared off some people who were encouraged by less aggressive and loud others appearing? Not that we were actually being aggressive...

Originally Posted by Boro

It's not about trusting people, you can't really 'trust' people in WW. It's being able to trust yourself, trust not only the 'evidence' but your instincts, feelings...etc. Your answer was 'yes but...," ok I guess I will have to accept that, but trust that instinct until you have reasons not to.

Yes but () Dr Boro, my problem is that I'm going in cycles - game by game I learn to be more and more self-confident and once I finally start trsuting myself I get everything totally wrong and then I have to start building the trust all over again. *sigh* But don't you worry about that and I never said I'm not trusting my gut-feeling of you for now - I am - but I keeping it open for revision (which is just sensible).


edit: xed with Eönwë and Mith

[Thinlómien]

I should vote and go to sleep soon. It's not like I'm tired, but it's soon 2am here and I'd better be sensible. I'm tempted to vote Sally but I don't like toDay feels to be turning into a huge Sallywagon - either her mates are abandoning her for good or we're mistaken and she's innocent, and in both cases there'll be too little to analyse toMorrow. I was leaning towards voting her but now I might vote Mac just to give an option.

[Thinlómien]

Rikae -> Gwath
Nerwen -> Gwath
Mith -> Sally

Gwath 2, Sally 1

[Eönwë]

Day 1:

Rikae ++Inzil
Eomer ++Mira
Boro ++Noggie
Kath ++Eonwe
Shasta ++Boro
Eonwe ++Rikae
Greenie ++Shasta
Lommy ++Cabby
Wilwa ++Greenie
Mac ++Noggie (2)
Inzil ++Cabbie (2)
Boro --Noggie(1)
Annu ++Noggie (2)
Boro ++Shasta (2)
Rikae --Inzil (0)
Rikae ++Cabby (3)
Mac --Noggie(0)
Noggie ++Cabbie (4)
Sally ++Shasta (3)
Mac ++Noggie (1) <2>
Gwath ++Wilwa
Didn't vote: Nerwen, Izzy, Mith, Cabbie, Mira

Lynch: Cabbie


Night 2
Kill: Greenie


Day 2:
Nerwen ++Inzil
Mith ++Noggie
Annu ++Shasta
Rikae ++Shasta (2)
Kath ++Annu
Eomer ++Mira <2>
Shasta ++Rikae
Wilwa ++Eonwe
Rikae --Shasta (1)
Rikae ++Mira (2)
Noggie ++Eomer
Mac ++Eomer (2)
Boro ++Mira (3)
Inzil ++Annu (2)
Gwath ++Mira (4)
Izzy ++Mac
Didn't vote: Sally, Lommy, Eonwe

Lynch: Mira

Night 3:
Kill: Eomer

Day 3:
Sally ++Shasta <2>
Noggie ++Annu
Boro ++Noggie <2>
Rikae ++Sally
Mith ++Noggie (2)
Shasta ++Annu (2)
Wilwa ++Gwath
Eonwe ++Gwath (2)
Nerwen ++Rikae
Kath ++Annu (3) <2>
Lommy ++Gwath (3)
Inzil ++Rikae (2)
Mac ++Gwath (4)
Nerwen --Rikae (1)
Izzy +Noggie (2)
Nerwen ++Annu (4)
Gwath ++Annu (5)
Didn't vote: Annu

Night 4
Modfired: Wilwa

(x)=number of votes each person recieved
<x>=number of votes given by one person to another (repeat voting)
Italic=retraction
Bold=alive now

All votes in order

edit: x-ed since Mith's post

[Eönwë]

I have no idea who to vote and I should have gone to sleep around half an hour ago.

[Rikae]

Originally Posted by Lommy

another is that they know that she's not gifted and are thus not wasting a kill on her

How would they know that? If Greenie is a cobbler, she's just guessing - and they don't, I assume, know that she isn't. Unless that was a slip of some sort...

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Rikae

How would they know that? If Greenie is a cobbler, she's just guessing - and they don't, I assume, know that she isn't. Unless that was a slip of some sort...

Okay, you're right, they don't, I was hasty when phrasing it. There's a smaller chance of her being gifted than others being gifted because if Greenie is the seer - which is probable from our point of view and from theirs as well if Nerwen's not one of them like this scenario assumes - she is not gifted and if Greenie is a cobbler it's still unlikely she had named a gifted (but of course not any more unlikely than anyone else being gifted in this village and some people are even though they have the just as small percentual probability to be as others). Am I making any sense?

edit: xed with Boro

[Thinlómien]

Boro, what's the point in lynching Izzy if she's a mere co-conspirator? It's one vote away from the baddies, but it may be a misguided vote and it won't affect the numbers. I think it doesn't make sense to vote possible cobblers anytime else than in the direst need (ie when having absolutely no idea about the wolves' identity).

[Boromir88]

Yes but () Dr Boro, my problem is that I'm going in cycles - game by game I learn to be more and more self-confident and once I finally start trsuting myself I get everything totally wrong and then I have to start building the trust all over again. *sigh* But don't you worry about that and I never said I'm not trusting my gut-feeling of you for now - I am - but I keeping it open for revision (which is just sensible).~Lommy

If you're evil you should be ashamed to manipulating me (and the crew) like this, playing the "I'm not confident defense." But if you're innocent than this should prove you have plenty of self-confidence, just don't let the inevitable "hiccups" mess you up.

[Boromir88]

I don't know...maybe because a cobbler is better than an innocent? Although, you make a good point and lynching a cobbler would be even really less pointless in this set up, considering he/she would still be a ghost and could post.

[Thinlómien]

Originally Posted by Boromir88

If you're evil you should be ashamed to manipulating me (and the crew) like this, playing the "I'm not confident defense." But if you're innocent than this should prove you have plenty of self-confidence, just don't let the inevitable "hiccups" mess you up.

If you're evil you should be ashamed of manipulating me by playing my personal psychologist, but if you're innocent this game should prove you'd make a great tutor. We're even, right?

edit: xed with Boro again

[Thinlómien]

I'm going to go to sleep now.

++Sally

It's the best suspicion I have and it seems it would be easier for me to concentrate if I didn't have to keep reminding myself of her existence and suspiciousness and wondering about her in future.

I hope I can go after Mac or Nogrod or Kath toMorrow, if needs be.

[Boromir88]

Originally Posted by Thinlómien

If you're evil you should be ashamed of manipulating me by playing my personal psychologist, but if you're innocent this game should prove you'd make a great tutor. We're even, right?

We're even now

I am going out to enjoy a late dinner, and will be no where near Salmon, so there is no worry in me falling asleep before the DL...I guess I should avoid turkey though, shouldn't I, that always puts me to sleep?