Game Thread: Werewolf- this time it's real!

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

A light perusal of the thread yields:

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Oh, and a little addition: I still don't think the post count a relevant source of information concerning the amount of participation. There are people who like to post the thing they want to say in shorter sections and those who put it all in one post. Also, I don't think the amount of posts (unless outrageously small) necessarily correlates with the amount of actual substance the player provides.

Which is why Gwath and Izzy are in my list. Gwath's playstyle is primarily replying to posts (which provides me with nothing to analyse about him), and Izzy, who, well, I just can't read.

Must mean she is an Oracle of something.

Shush. You're not playing.

(In any case, I, above all else, understand how RL interferes with WWing--just look at my bloody developing-country location, for instance--I can tell you a story of how morm worried about Lhuna and I somehow being caught in the middle of a freaking coup d'etat! But, as I've pointed out, even though one didn't start playing with that strategy in mind, it is quite easy to use to one's advantage. Do you see my point?)

Originally Posted by Kent2010

I have a problem with this, if the wolves believed Firefoot was the seer, and that's why she was killed, I would not just look at who she attacked (mostly Nogrod yesterday) but who she defended might be just as important. If she defended someone pretty strongly, that could also be a tip off to the wolves, making them believe Firefoot was the seer.

Excellent point, although the probability of an ordo defending an innocent is higher than the probability of an ordo suspecting/accusing a baddie.

And as I'm inclined to think Nogrod innocent, I don't really subscribe to that comment of mine--however, considering that I'm analysing Firefoot's post from a seer-hunter's Anschauung, I had to point it out.

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

[Nilp] is playing a semi-private game. In that he seems to be conduction reactionary(?) experiments on some.

I love you, Isabellkya.

Yes, I'm playing that sort--still enjoying newfound ability to post more and all; but only a few seems to be reacting.

Fea's 541 reads Cobbler to me, at the very least.

[Kuruharan]

I'm very reluctant to vote for Fea even though she now positively reeks with suspicion...because I'm afraid that her death won't tell us much of anything unless she's a wolf. She has, in the main, had so little interaction with the other players that if she is innocent, killing her would probably be a dead end leading nowhere.

At least with lynching Brinn, or Gwath, or Izzy (to name a few) there is a trail to follow regardless of the result of the lynching.

[Kuruharan]

The problem I'm having is that there really is no way to know without trying the ideas out. The problem is that we are so backed up against the wall right now that we have really run out of time to test anything. I think if we could find a wolf a lot of pieces would fall together very quickly. But right now it is just a crap shoot about whether you guess right on which theory to act on.

I feel pretty confident at this point that some wolves have been examined...its just picking out which ones I must admit myself to be at a bit of a loss to decide.

Overabundance of targets.

[Isabellkya]

Shasta - So then what is your take on Gwath's later post about Fea being a Cobbler, or an innocent who thinks she found a wolf? in regards to her voting of Nog yesterDay.

Would that not suggest that if Gwath is a wolf/Vampire, then Fea is the Cobbler?


Yes well, it became semi when you revealed about the Kent experiment.


X'd with Kuru x2.

[Gwathagor]

Fea - intrigues me. She looked like a cobbler to me yesterDay and earlier toDay, but her recent explanation for her behavior/style seems like it could be legitimate. Unfortunately, I don't like her style; or, at least, I don't like playing against it because it seems intended to bewilder everyone equally and so I never know what to make of her. She could be anything. However, I am leaning towards cobbler. I think her 4 or 5 votes for Nogrod yesterDay could very plausibly have been an attempt (and if so, a successful attempt) to draw other players into expending their bonus votes, which helps nobody but the wolves, especially if the wolves are saving their votes, as some have argued.

Nogrod - I don't like his big long case against Brinn at all. I felt like he was too convinced, too attached to the idea that Brinn is a wolf to view the situation with clarity and detachment. I don't mean to denigrate certainty, but one person's extreme certainty will only occasionally convince me when it is supported primarily by speculation. All that to say: I am wary of his certainty, but uncertain about his role.
Also, if Fea was the cobbler, as I have suggested, then it doesn't seem likely that Nogrod could be a wolf. One or the other.

Sally - 'Shifty' is the word I would use to describe Sally as she has appeared in this game. She has said very little, and when she does talk, it's almost always evasive, vacillating, and non-comittal. Sally looks pretty bad to me.

EDIT: Crossed with Kuru, Kuru, and Izzy.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Sally - 'Shifty' is the word I would use to describe Sally as she has appeared in this game. She has said very little, and when she does talk, it's almost always evasive, vacillating, and non-comittal. Sally looks pretty bad to me.

One point I'd like to reiterate from yesterDay's voting (if for no other reason than it may be important later...I don't think it likely that both Sally and Brinn are wolves since Brinn just sort of up and voted for Sally.

[Isabellkya]

As Brin stated before , she had seen a few others voice their concerns over Sally (as well as Firefoot). So if they were mates, and she was worried Sally would be lynched. Would she not add in a vote there, to try and make herself look good?

X'd with Gwath.

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Isabellkya

As Brin stated before , she had seen a few others voice their concerns over Sally (as well as Firefoot). So if they were mates, and she was worried Sally would be lynched. Would she not add in a vote there, to try and make herself look good?

X'd with Gwath.

Possibly...although I'm not sure at that moment it would have been prudent to potentially put Sally out on a limb again.

Unless of course Brinn didn't think at the time she would have been.

D'oh...just when I was about to vote Gwath I'm back to wanting to test the Brinn theory more.

Going to have to make up my mind soon, though.

[Gwathagor]

Seems plausible.

EDIT: Ah, crossed with Kuru. Meant this in response to Izzy.

[Formendacil]

Oh dear...

Did you all HAVE to post that much? First time I say I'm going away is when all the posting starts. I guess I should go away more often, then.

Fea, Nogrod, and Kent are all not wolves. Might be a passel of cobblers, for all I know, but they are not wolves.

Personally, I inclined to think the Brinn and Gwath dyad mentioned earlier has merit to it. Brinn is always a hard read...

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Nogrod [...] All that to say: I am wary of his certainty, but uncertain about his role.

Unless....

It occurs to me that there ARE circumstances in which an innocent player could be thoroughly certain of another player's role...dang, now I'm having to rethink this.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Blast. Less than an hour to go. Must do this in segments of four or so:

Feanor of the Peredhil (6)
All senses scream 'Wormtongue!', what with voting and certain posts and all. Will not vote for her, however, unless no better opportunity is presented.

Formendacil (10)
Should be added to my quiet list. Posts a lot, but it's some banter, some more banter, a little analysis, and not much else. Does present certain useful ideas, however--like that NIGHT kill theory. I remain wary of the motivations of said ideas, though.

Kuruharan (6)
Beren. Suspect at your own risk.

Nilpaurion Felagund (7)
Playing a private game. Loves this game. Will not declare himself a proven innocent even in his own list. Analyse me, indulge my narcissistic fancy!

Nogrod (5)
His earnestness to save this village shows. Hence, inclined to think him innocent. (I've been scrutinising his plan, and the only possibility of evil comes from him being the Cobbler and enticing the village to waste bonus votes for the next DAY's slaughter. But other indicators of innocence or guilt, like voting and other posts, say otherwise.)

[Isabellkya]

++Sally

For previous reasons stated.