Game Thread: Werewolf- this time it's real!

[Formendacil]

So... at the start of the Day, when I was getting quite sleepy, thanks quite possibly to alcohol and smoke and a week of too little sleep--well, at that point I was all post-happy and could feel the ideas for analysis sitting just out of conscious thought.

Now it's midday, and I can't think of a single constructive thing to say... so I'm just popping to note that I'm here, and I'm planning on being back toward the last hour or two of toDay, but I'll be gone until then (Final exams and 3 hour drive...).

Don't do anything stupid. Please?

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Kent2010

P.S. one more thing...

I'd like to know Gwath why you decided to chime in at the end between Kuru and myself? I appreciated it at the time, but now with not voting it looks like a move to egg the situation forward and looks like an oppurtunistic wolf defending an innocent.

At the end? Probably because I didn't read the exchange until it was nearly over. Kuru said you had been making a big fuss over your newbie status and I disagreed with him, so I said so. It seemed possible to me that Kuru genuinely believed you had been overly defensive and that he wasn't simply misrepresenting the situation, as a wolf would do. This possibility contributed to my indecision when it came time to vote, as I do not like to vote against people simply based on a difference of opinion. If I did that, I'd never vote anyone but Nogrod and Rikae.

[Gwathagor]

Regarding the bonus votes issue: the more innocents who save their bonus votes, the better - whoever has the most bonus votes towards the end of the game will win. Do NOT waste them now.

Now that I'm thinking along these lines, I wonder if Grima might be likely to try to force innocents to use their bonus votes early on by using some of his/her own.

[Kent2010]

That's what having people getting overly defensive about speculation gets us...voting on emotions rather than evidence.
-Kuru

And I'm going to let you know how I play. There were plenty of apt reasons to honestly believe your were at least the cobbler, my reasons were not skewed by the emotion at the end.

One of the games I scanned before this, a person who played the cobbler said he was the cobbler in one of his very first posts and that went ignored until it was too late. Some may think an ordos job is to vote, let the specials fight it out, and die, but I don't. I will jump right into something, if smiley and punctutation placement can be scrutinized I will call out coded messages and titles. Think twice before anyone tries nifty mind tricks and manuevers. I believe if you bring that type of attention to yourself you get what you ask - for either good or ill.

My mistake was the emotions at the end led me to dump 5 bonus votes on you, and even if you turned out to be the cobbler, that was probably far too much to waste on the cobbler.

But now you all know how I call it, if you don't like it and think my job is to shut up and die, tough...deal with it.

Now, with that out of the way, I will do as you ask Kuru and get to analyzing. I can't be here until the deadline today, but I have lots of hours open today.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

So... at the start of the Day, when I was getting quite sleepy, thanks quite possibly to alcohol and smoke and a week of too little sleep--well, at that point I was all post-happy and could feel the ideas for analysis sitting just out of conscious thought.

Now it's midday, and I can't think of a single constructive thing to say... so I'm just popping to note that I'm here, and I'm planning on being back toward the last hour or two of toDay, but I'll be gone until then (Final exams and 3 hour drive...).

Don't do anything stupid. Please?

Define stupid.


Incidentally, unless I misunderstood (which is highly possible) Kent thought of Kuru as a cobbler, yet he was determined to see Kuru go. Not that I'm advocating leaving the cobbler around to create further problems, but why waste so much effort on a Kuru-cobbler when there's wolves to be caught? Seems either a bit counterintuitive or a lot evil. Take your pick.

[Gwathagor]

Well, if you CAN'T find a wolf, but you CAN find a cobbler, then it makes sense to vote the cobbler - something is better than nothing. I do agree, of course, that wolves take priority.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Well, if you CAN'T find a wolf, but you CAN find a cobbler, then it makes sense to vote the cobbler - something is better than nothing. I do agree, of course, that wolves take priority.

Very good point. I'm just concerned by the fact that Kent was after Kuru for perhaps being the cobbler and didn't seem to be bothered much by everyone else. Maybe I'm just paranoid or something.

*shrugs*

Also, good point a few posts above about Grima wanting people to use their bonus votes. I wouldn't want everyone to use them, but I think if at some point in the game there's only a couple ordos with all their bonus votes Vamp Girl might kill 'em and suck 'em dry. That was my only real concern. Although I'm still worried both about people who use them frivolously (aka use 6 or so in a Day, not that it's a problem so much a possible indication that they've got more than we think they do) or people who intentionally are holding them not for just the right time, but specifically for the end of the game.

[Lariren Shadow]

I'm going to echo what has been said about the bonus votes. Saying that a wolf/vamp is holding on to their votes, while plausible, might not be true. If they were to see a villager that is on to them using their bonus votes to kill that villager wouldn't be a bad idea. That way they could, conceivably, get two kills in one Day. Maybe looking at those who used their bonus votes already might not be a bad idea.

I for one am saving mine till I feel really sure of someone's guilt.

Originally Posted by Kuruharan

Aside from giving us some theories to work from, this level of theorycrafting will put pressure on the wolves because they will be forced to talk too and they will have to do one of two things. They will either have to band more closely together in the things they say, thus making themselves ripe for being wiped out all at once, or they will fragment in some way and one way or another help us kill their fellows to save their own skins. Wolf kills are what we need right now and I am not in the least averse to wolf on wolf violence.

This is just one instance but why are we assuming that the baddies are the quiet ones? I know why I've been quiet, and I'm going to respect the rules about not talking about RL stuff. This whole "let's look at the quiet ones" thing, excluding when Kuru says it, seems like a good way for the wolves/vamp to get more innocents killed. While there is a probability that, in the quiet ones, there is a baddie, there is the same probability that there is a baddie among the vocal ones. Limiting the suspicions to just the quiet ones is a good way for a vocal baddie to hide.

At some point toDay I will be doing the whole long theories post like Kuru said we should.

[Kent2010]

While I agree that some of the baddies are surely saving up their votes, I really don't like the way you're implying that everyone who hasn't used a bonus vote is automatically suspicious.
-Brinn

Now, about this bonus vote stuff. I agree with Brinn - meanwhile it does seem like a sensible thing for the baddies to do to spare their bonus votes, that doesn't mean that it wouldn't be sensible for an innocent too.
-Greenie

I'm going to echo what has been said about the bonus votes. Saying that a wolf/vamp is holding on to their votes, while plausible, might not be true.
-Lariren

This is interesting...three defenses for keeping onto the bonus votes. So, how to seperate the unsure innocent holding on to the boni until necessary from the wolves harvesting them?

Because I think Nogrod's essential point is that currently over half the village (7 of 13) has all of their bonus votes and 9 of 13 has over 7. That is quite a disparity. And he's not saying if you have 10 bonus votes you are a wolf, but he's saying there are wolves clutching onto their bonus as Smaug does with treasure.

If you take out the universal innocent Kuru, and I count myself out because I'm an ordo, that is 9/11 with over 7 bonus, and 7/11 with all 10. There are two ways we can solve this disparity.

One, lynch the people with 6 and under, that would get rid of the gap in bonus, but I doubt that will work, because I'm innocent and I still see no reason to think Nogrod is a baddie.

Or two we start applying pressure to those who have lots of bonus, that will even the levels back down, and based on the huge proportion of people with all their bonus still left, there is one if not multiple baddies.

I also think some of you are being a bit too defensive about what Nogrod is saying regarding bonus votes. It does not sound like he's saying if you have 10 bonus you are a wolf and we will lynch you, he's focusing the field. The fact is over half the people still have all there bonus, and its faulty to disregard that fact by saying "well yes there could be a wolf here, but there could not be as well!"

x'ed with Nogrod and Greenie

[Kuruharan]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

This is just one instance but why are we assuming that the baddies are the quiet ones?

I'm not. While I admit that at the moment I very much suspect that the debates thus far have largely missed the actual wolves entirely that doesn't mean that I am assuming they have been quiet.

I don't really want anybody to be assuming anything about anybody. We need analysis and facts. Everyone should be giving *everybody* else a hard look, and when I say everyone I mean everyone...loud, quiet, tall, short, thin, fat...whatever.

*jabs a sharp object at Form*

What do you mean you don't have any idea about what to say? You're smart and you've talked almost more than anybody else in this thread.

*removes the booze and smokes far from where Form is*

I was a bit reluctant to do this because I *don't* want everyone following me around like lemmings because I don't really know more than anybody else but since people seem more interested in doing more self-justification I guess I'll go ahead and do a quick overview to get us started.

Brinniel - Deeply Suspicious. Her help throughout has been less than helpful when it comes down to it. She is exhibiting a lot of those troubling "be visible but nowhere near the forefront" signs. If I was voting right now I'd vote for her.

Fea - Where is she toDay? Some of her actions, like her vote for Nogrod are really beginning to strike me as more than a little bit creepy. Course she always strikes me as creepy...

Form - I'm beginning to grow troubled about Form. For the most part I have thought that he is innocent, but at the same time I'm disturbed by just how much he has managed to blend into the background. This is almost never good. Right at the moment I'm having some very disturbing visions of a possible Form/Nilp axis that I am not liking the implications of at all. Not that I really have anything concrete to back it up, its just a thought that has flashed through my mind.

Green - I have to admit that I don't totally follow Nogrod's suspicions about her...but the fact that Nog is so suspicious of her is enough to make me wary. I personally think we have bigger fish to fry than her though.

Gwath - Deeply Suspicious. He, like Brinn, is one who's help has proved to be less than actually helpful. His behavior yesterDay at the end was very troubling what with him appearing to egg on the Kent vs. Kuru situation and then his not voting by reason of fright. Another theory is that he was hoping not to leave any fingerprints. He's been talky today but not really offered anything useful at the time I'm typing this.

Izzy - Kind of below my mental radar right now...which is causing all sorts of warning klaxons to go off in my head. I'm hoping some others will have some more substantial things to say about her.

Kent - Mostly now I think he's innocent given the hyperactivity of his defense yesterday. That did bear signs of an innocent falsely accused and thinking he's on to something...alas...he wasn't. :\ Still don't trust him, though.

Lari - Another one who is kind of beneath my mental radar. *cue warning klaxons* For some reason they aren't going off as loudly about her as about Izzy...but there is no rational reason for that. Don't have any fix on her.

Nilp - The other half of my feared Form/Nilp axis that I'm kinda worried about. If it is them or one of them we may be done for because we are running out of time to test theories. He's appeared helpful...and yet weird at the same time, but that is kinda normal. Definitely kind of has that blending into the background feel for me at least.

Nogrod - I think he is innocent. He's the one I feel most confident about being innocent. If he's a wolf then, quite frankly, its getting to the point where he deserves the win and my hat will be unreservedly off to him for it.

Sally - Deeply suspicious. Her help has also not been particularly helpful and she didn't vote yesterDay. I will say that in my mind it is a mitigating circumstance that Brinn voted for her. If Brinn turns out to be innocent I'd definitely want to lynch Sally.

Shasta - I don't trust him at all, but he's been around so little that it feels like we have bigger fish to fry than him.

Right now my mind is focused on a Brinn - Gwath combination with the third wolf not really clear to me, or secondarily a Form - Nilp combination also with the third wolf unclear.

I'm struggling with that third wolf.

It could also be some other combination of the above.

Anyway, its time for me to head back to work and that's where things are for me right now.

Get posting!

xed with everyone since 470

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Nog

It's about time some people opened their mouths and stopped hiding in the shadows trying deliberately not to displease anyone but the one they vote *coughGreeniecough*

What's this about? "Hiding in the shadows" should be translated as "being busy with school stuff" and "Trying not to displease anyone but the one they vote" as "having no time to concentrate on many people and thus using the time you have to look at someone more properly - and not feeling good about what you find there". I think we've had this discussion before but everyone doesn't have the time to be as vocal as you and that shouldn't be anything to get upset about. Unless you'd like to establish some hardcore-ww game where everyone has to post at least 30 posts and suspect the minimum of seven people a day, you should accept that everyone just isn't able to post as actively as you'd like. Sorry to sound heated, but I don't particularly like that accusatory tone you always have when talking about someone who, for one reason or another, plays with a different style than you do.

Back soon with a list...


EDIT: x-ed with Lari

[Nogrod]

It's good I had a cigarette first before sending this one. I wrote quite a rant and a disclaimer of some eloquence but have now deleted it and will only say this.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

Sorry to sound heated, but I don't particularly like that accusatory tone you always have when talking about someone who, for one reason or another, plays with a different style than you do.

I have nothing against different tactics. No. Everyone may play as they will.

But everyone should be ready to face the consequences of not giving themselves into the game and thus being looked on as suspicious by those others who actually play or see it that way.

One may play as she wishes but she can't protest if someone thinks her guilty because of that. One should be able to play as she wishes, but also able to suspect others just the way she wishes.

Or do you want to say that playing-styles are free but ways to suspect are not?

[A Little Green]

Brinniel (10) -Seems innocentish and I agree with her a lot. (Not that that means anything - I've been saying that about her in every game we've played together, regardless of her role...)

Fea (6) - Quite frankly I have no idea about her. I'd love to have a look at her if I have the time. Her vote yesterDay was weird because it wasn't explained in any way whatsoever. She did mention earlier that her attention was on Nog because of his Day 1 vote, but unless I missed something she didn't voice suspicion on him anywhere else.

Formendacil (10) - He still seems innocent and speaks good sense.

Gwath (10) - His Day 1 vote made me raise eyebrows, as did his lack of vote on Day 2. His posting has looked okay otherwise.

Izzy (8) - I have no idea whatsoever. She's so securely under my radar that I begin to get worried. She's another I'd love to look at.

Kent (5) - Seems innocent. Can't put it better than that.

Kuruharan (6) - I don't know why I included him in the list in the first place since we know what he is. Nice guy.

Lari (10) - As securely under my radar as Izzy. She has pretty much escaped my attention this far. I'll look at her if I have the time.

Nilp (7) - Sometimes I just don't get where he's coming from, with all that stuff about Sally's "slips" (none of which looked like wolf slips to me) and post counts. I don't know about him, but he's at least someone I will keep an eye on.

Nogrod (5) - I'm trying to get past my irritation with him () and analyse him objectively. I'm still behind everything I said about him yesterDay. His Day 1 vote still seems very fishy to me. Also, I don't see the logic behind his theory on how everyone should consume their votes as soon as possible. Or rather, I can see it serving a purpose if he's evil, but not otherwise.

Sally (10) - I don't have much of a read on her either, but there's nothing about her that makes me wary.

Shasta (10) - I understand he's been busy, but that doesn't make his Day 2 vote any less strange. Actually, Shasta - you said your vote was random between the three people you suspected. Who were the three and on what grounds did you suspect them? Form was one, obviously, I guess I was another, but who was the third? Yeah, but I don't know about Shasta. He speaks sense at times, and at times he behaves weirdly.

Any conclusions? Most of the people are apparently either "no idea" or "either innocent or wolf". In other words, looks much like my lists always do. I'll probably vote in an hour or so and go to sleep. As yet I don't know who to vote for, though.


EDIT: x-ed since my last - oh my, what novels these guys are writing!

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Formendacil

So... at the start of the Day, when I was getting quite sleepy, thanks quite possibly to alcohol and smoke and a week of too little sleep--well, at that point I was all post-happy and could feel the ideas for analysis sitting just out of conscious thought.

Well now, reverend Form! Bless you!
(btw. at the moment you stand third in my list of suspicions but that is sure subject to change as I will go back to look at everyone...)



Okay, to Brinn's last post then to begin with as I think it's important.

Originally Posted by Brinn

So you're saying I should've been one to make a decisive vote for a second time and it was wrong of me not to? I was given a lot of crap yesterDay for giving the decisive vote to someone I didn't suspect much...

You could say that very same thing as a wolf and as an innocent, so it's not exactly an argument on your behalf. Though I must agree that the only decent reason I have for still doubting my case on you a bit is your vote on Day1. Maybe you were indecisive then - as you claimed toDay you were yesterDay?

Originally Posted by Brinn

But as I stated in an earlier post, I did not care for any of the choices on the lynching block nor did I particularly care to save anyone on it, so why should I vote for one of them if I didn't have a reason to? My main suspects were Sally and Firefoot and I stuck by those suspicions.

Well, if you really suspected Sally and Firefoot - and you were an ordo seeing nothing particularly good/bad in me and Kuru - wouldn't you have wished to persuade some others to see your point? It's more than obvious that both I and Kuru would have been more than ready to discuss an alternative solution - and whatever your thoughts were, shouldn't you have shared them with us others online at that time to try and make it good for the Pub (the village, that is)? But no, you were not interested about the outcome of the vote but of whom do you give a vote that will not be eyed too closely as it's not a decisive vote?

A goodie cares about the outcome of the vote as lynches are basically the only ways of getting the baddies down. To baddies it's not such a big thing unless one of them is in trouble in a critical moment.

Your action yesterDay didn't give the impression of you being bothered as who would be killed, but it gave the impression of you being very interested in not voting for anyone who would get killed and thus would lead into someone scrutinizing you on behalf of that innocent's death.

Also, if you were a goodie you would have wanted to negotiate the lynch with the others. Why do you try to imply to us (in your earlier post toDay) you were having really a tough time deciding between Firefoot and Sally like it was something important (which it wasn't because you left your vote to the last possible instant so that no one could react to your vote) as meanwhile you don't give a damn to who gets lynched by not trying to influence the vote / negotiate it with others still to vote?


--- interlude ---

My vote may have only counted as one but it still made a difference since Sally did almost get lynched. Maybe I should call you the safe voter for giving Sally five votes at the very end which was just one shy of sealing her fate. Since you're all about decisive voting, why not add on one more bonus vote and get her lynched?

That's a story indeed. Just think how mad I was when I realised I had lost four perfectly usable bonus-votes for nothing!

After seeing at .58 that Izzy had given Sally 4 votes, I sighed from relief and had just written Sally's name to my vote post and was counting for like third time how many votes I should spend to make her even with me when I refreshed the screen and saw your vote to Sally - and Nilp's +3 to Kuru.

But Nilp's vote was not highlighted!

It was already .00 and I refreshed the page a few times to see whether Nilp had edited his post to highlight his vote, but it never turned red. I had no idea how many seconds I had left and finally blinked making the post - adding one more bonus vote just in case someone - like Sally - would have given me one more vote in between my last 'refresh the page' and 'submit message' -clicks.

I just couldn't trust Nilp's vote would be accepted as it was not highlighted on .00.


--- end interlude ---


Your idea of calling me the safe-voter or someone shying away from decisive voting is ridiculous even if you didn't notice that error of Nilp not highlighting his vote. Why would I waste four bonus votes for nothing when I'm about to be lynched? Really. At .59 I was still leading the tally. You think someone would love to be indecisive at that kind of minute?

Are you that low on things to throw at me when I got you?

While I agree that some of the baddies are surely saving up their votes, I really don't like the way you're implying that everyone who hasn't used a bonus vote is automatically suspicious. More than half the players haven't used their bonus votes and I don't think we're wrong in choosing so.

I just tried to awaken people to the problem we have in our hands. If you think my theory is bad you should argue for a better one and not blame me for trying. The moment you come up with a better working plan I will abandon mine and change to yours.

Also I disagree with you in principle here (which has nothing to do with whatever suspicions I have about you). In principle the bonus votes are a great asset to the baddies as they know each other and can co-ordinate their votes in real-time via PM's. That's a huge weapon they have - and a terrible disadvantage to us.

So what's the cure? We will never be able to gather all the innocents who are in doubt under one banner to collectively vote together from our solitary confinements, but the "all-knowing" and "all the time PM'ing" baddies can do it. So let's get rid of that power only the baddies can use as soon as we can.

So we need to create an athmosphere where anyone having ten bonus-votes left feels s/he is going to be lynched because of it - or which would be better: we should force the baddies to defend their mate(s) with their bonus-votes, if we just got a good enough threat to them.

For they will fight toDay. If they get through this Day with no extra-votes used and lynching an innocent they will win unless a miracle happens. So we need to force them to fight toDay if we get it right - or at least need to pressurise them to disarm with the threat of lynching.

Suspecting you heavily I think is a good start.

As I said yesterDay: an ordo may think a lot of voting power is her/his ultimate defence but that's not true. We can not organise our votes as the baddies can and a single disagreement may be the end of it.

I didn't post those counts of the worst-scenario numbers in vain. That is a true possibility and we may be practically lost toMorrow morning.

I do find it weird that you suggest that all the innocents use their bonus votes early.

Who has suggested that kind of "tactics"? Not me. I said we should all disarm - as a show of confidence that is - and then lynch those who do not wish to join. And I expressed many reservations to that. And I already kind of deserted the plan in my posts as an impossible one to execute - before I realised it could be accomplished if we could pressure the wolves toDay.

Oh my, enough of this... I'll come back to your other points if you insist but this is getting too long and I should pay attention to other affairs as well.


EDIT: X'd with a host of posts I see...

[Gwathagor]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I said we should all disarm - as a show of confidence that is - and then lynch those who do not wish to join. And I expressed many reservations to that. And I already kind of deserted the plan in my posts as an impossible one to execute - before I realised it could be accomplished if we could pressure the wolves toDay.

Yeah...ain't no way I'm disarming.