Game Thread: Werewolf- this time it's real!

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Sally analysis (editor's comment are underlined and emphasised):

DAY 1
233

Calls us slackers and whips us all into shape. Says she will listen to what has been said before deciding who to vote against.

250

Responds to various posts, mostly banter, but comments on the various issues. Says that she'll keep an eye on those hoarding their bonus votes for the endgame. Also, comments on the Gríma discussion, saying that looking for him is about as effective as looking for Pippin. Makes the following comment comment on wolf activity:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

True that wolves make an effort to be more consistent, but they don't necessarily succeed, as you point out, and some wolves (like me, when I am a wolf) act even more off the wall than they do when they're ordos, because they know that if they try to control everything they say it is more likely to slip than if they just go with the flow and try to subtly direct the village.

More on her slips later.

258

Has no idea who to kill yet.

Izzy (387) comments on her use of the word 'kill' here, instead of, say, lynch or vote.

262

Say's she'll 'look over Nienna's posts real quick and see what the fuss is about.' Eight minutes later . . .

266

Votes for Nienna, indicating her 'furry potential', her being 'blinking brilliant as a wolf', and generally wariness to leave her alive for long.

DAY 2

401

Says that she has no suspicions, and that she'll abstain from voting for fear of killing an innocent or worse, a gifted. But she'll step in if she 'dislikes the way the vote is going.' Slipetty-slip number three?

412

Banter. Comments on Izzy's vote for her.

415

Post was made after the deadline. More banter.

DAY 3

426

Alonariel = Nienna2? Affirms Kuru is Beren. Says she'll look into why Firefoot was killed, but would like the opinion of others, too.

430

Was interrogated by Kuru re yesterDAY's voting. Affirms that she didn't suspect anyone, but though Kuru wasn't innocent (!?). Didn't find Nog suspicious then.

The fourth sentence of her response to Kuru is quite confusing. If I'm reading it aright . . . slip number four?!

433

Quotes Gwath's answer to Kuru's interrogation, and says she feels the same way. Adds that she didn't like the way the vote was going, and that she was about to vote. But don't worry, the deadline saved you.

439

Comments on Nilp's vote list, thinks that Nilp's purpose with it is to mess with her head. Then she says she's going to bed, with intriguing comments such as fearing being killed at NIGHT and interesting stories to share after the game.

Conclusions:

• Her voting has been rather suspect.
• She has made quite a lot of slips, and some rather curious statements, which probably goes with her being off-the-wall style as a wolf (as she has already indicated).
• But, I am generally suspicious of her anyway.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Bleah. I'm eating supper.

I'll probably be back before the deadline.

[Kuruharan]

I have a proposal to make for our conduct today. I believe that thus far there has not been nearly enough analysis taking place on the part of those of us here. This needs to change if the Villagers are going to avoid suffering a humiliating rout in this game.

So, my proposal is that everyone here needs to offer up a post with their ideas and analysis of every other player here so we can construct some workable theories so we can look at events and be able to say “If X happens then Y must be true or if X doesn’t happen then Z must be true.” We cannot have any more of people being too afraid to vote or voting out of reaction because some other player dared to speculate about them (or being able to say these things and use it as cover). Everyone is going to be speculating about everyone else. The more ideas we get out there on the table now the better. You are all intelligent people and you all have ideas, even if you don’t think you do…go review the thread and develop some. Look at the behavior of other players and share your thoughts about all of them with us. We are flirting with the nether-regions of disaster now, its time for everybody to open up.

Aside from giving us some theories to work from, this level of theorycrafting will put pressure on the wolves because they will be forced to talk too and they will have to do one of two things. They will either have to band more closely together in the things they say, thus making themselves ripe for being wiped out all at once, or they will fragment in some way and one way or another help us kill their fellows to save their own skins. Wolf kills are what we need right now and I am not in the least averse to wolf on wolf violence.

The critical aspect of this plan is that everyone is speculating about everyone else and ideas are discussed as freely as possible. Being dead, I am not going to have many qualms about making people uncomfortable who I don’t believe are contributing. As I said, you are all intelligent people and well capable of developing good ideas that are worth considering and listening to (except, of course, for the wolves who all need to be brutally killed ). Villagers I am only doing it for your own good if I seem to pick on you, we are well on our way to being stomped here if things don’t change. Wolves I am not doing it for your own good because I want you to lose…so please make many mistakes and fall all over each other and generally run around like headless chickens.

Essentially I want a situation where everyone has laid their cards on the table and exposed themselves (get your junior high giggles out of your system now…all done? Good. Moving on.) In this way the village will have clearer ideas of what has happened previously and be better able to act according to what happens in the future thanks to having done some thorough analysis and planning.

As I said, this village is skirting the ragged edge of disaster and is going to have to make some effort to save itself.