Game Thread: Werewolf- this time it's real!

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Firefoot analysis (editor's comment are underlined and emphasised):

DAY 1
198

Says bonus votes should be saved as a trump card. Proposes that Agan, Shasta, and Nilp are the three wolves.

223

Responds to Agan's 216 (re the post title thing of Kuru). Adds a comment about Kuru using in his posts. But both 'seems rather innocuous' to her.

Agrees with Kent about wolves having 'a canned response to the bonus votes question', but issues a caveat about how to determine such a canned response.

255

Says that she's afraid the ones being suspected are the most talkative ones. Wonders about Agan using a bonus vote on Kuru, and further wonders if he's[sic] the seer. Votes for Kuru to test it out.

One of the posts that put her on the suspicion list of some people, myself included.

257

She thanks me for being kindhearted.

DAY 2

290

Defends her pointing out Agan as a seer (albeit in strangely-worded fashion). Wonders if Kuru is a wolf, or if Agan was being a liability to the evil side, lack of gift notwithstanding. In another paragraph, she thinks Agan's use of a bonus vote made her look like a seer.

Her other suspicious post.

325

Doesn't find anyone suspicious. However, if Kuru turns out to be a wolf, Izzy and Brinn would look suspicious.

'If' was emphasised, and she added the phrase 'but that's a big if' at the end, indicating, perhaps, that she did not suspect Kuru much at this point.

329

Wonders about Nog's DAY 1 vote (something that Izzy questioned about, too, but Nog brushed it off.) Thought that Kuru was just a safe vote for Nog and that the real target was Nienna. Calls his voting sloppy.

Comments on Nog's 313 (a comment on Kuru's 311, where he thought Kuru's explanation of the NIGHT kill seemed to be 'a post trying to convince us he's no baddie'.) She said that Nog wasn't suspicious of Kuru yesterday, and that Nog's analysis of the possibility of Kuru's wolvishness wasn't forthcoming.

Indicates her suspicion of Nogrod, but holds it back by saying that her suspicion comes from his being talkative. Comments on Kent's obsession with his newbie status.

Perhaps the post that killed her, if we go with the assumption that the Evil Three are hunting Lúthien . . .

395

Defends her seer comment. Says that it would be sloppy to point out a seer and kill her the next NIGHT. Votes for Nog.

Later Nogrod comments on this post (399), where she deemed Firefoot 'innocentish' . . .

Conclusions:

• She suspected Shasta and Nilp on early DAY 1, and Nog (mildly) on DAY 2.
• Everyone she interacted with on DAY 1 was proven innocent--save Kent (and Nilp, if you could call 257 'interaction.')
• She was suspicious on DAY 2 due to her seer comment.
• She withdrew her suspicion of Kuru DAY 2.
• Her comments on Kent's newbie status revived a supposedly dead issue and caused a flare-up between Kuru and Kent.

[Brinniel]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

But the real point is: you were not interested in the outcome of the voting. During the last twenty minutes you didn't post even once to take part in the discussion. Why? Because it was such a momentous task to decide whether to give one vote to Firefoot or Sally - not to talk about all that retyping-effort...

So you're saying I should've been one to make a decisive vote for a second time and it was wrong of me not to? I was given a lot of crap yesterDay for giving the decisive vote to someone I didn't suspect much...I still hold to that Day One vote because I wanted to give Kuru a second Day. But as I stated in an earlier post, I did not care for any of the choices on the lynching block nor did I particularly care to save anyone on it, so why should I vote for one of them if I didn't have a reason to? My main suspects were Sally and Firefoot and I stuck by those suspicions. And no I didn't give Sally any of my bonus votes because while I suspect her, I wasn't convinced she was guilty and since we do only have ten bonus votes, my opinion is that you should only used them when you're convinced you've found a wolf. Sorry, but it just really irritates me to hear that I'm "disinterested" because I didn't make a decisive vote. My vote may have not been a critical one but neither was it a complete throwaway. I x-posted with several votes in those last two minutes, so I really had no idea what the outcome would be. My vote may have only counted as one but it still made a difference since Sally did almost get lynched. Maybe I should call you the safe voter for giving Sally five votes at the very end which was just one shy of sealing her fate. Since you're all about decisive voting, why not add on one more bonus vote and get her lynched?

While I agree that some of the baddies are surely saving up their votes, I really don't like the way you're implying that everyone who hasn't used a bonus vote is automatically suspicious. More than half the players haven't used their bonus votes and I don't think we're wrong in choosing so. Now if all of the innocents used their votes early and all of the baddies saved their's, that would be a very stupid move for both sides. It's only the beginning of the third Day and I'm not gonna just throw out half my bonus votes this early just to prove to you that I'm innocent...and I do find it weird that you suggest that all the innocents use their bonus votes early. Now if we did that, of course the baddies will have the upper hand. It seems like a clever bluff for a baddie to use their bonus votes and then go after everyone who didn't to make yourself look good, because indeed the most obvious strategy for the wolves is for all of them to save their votes. But do you really think that the wolves will choose the most obvious strategy? I think not.

I may use some bonus votes toDay or I may not. It depends on my suspicions. If I don't have anyone I feel strongly enough against (and sometimes I don't have any strong suspects), I won't dump my bonus votes on them. Honestly I'm not the most accurate voter, so I do want to be careful who I use them on because I'd feel quite regretful if I ended up getting an innocent lynched with my bonus votes. Seeing how messy yesterDay got, perhaps more players should do the same.

[Isabellkya]

There are also the cases of the one-third chances. As well as the two/three nights in a row, someone can be turned. The three could all be males, looking to get rid of the females. Or could all be females, looking to get rid of fellow females to be left with a village of males. Or any reason for that matter.

Do those posts counts include the meet-and greet portion, Nilp?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Yes, unfortunately, they do. I'll do a proper count of game-related posts then.

[Isabellkya]

I think this is what it should look like without the negative day posts:

32 - Nog
31 - Form
30 - Kent
22 - Kuru
22 - Gwath
21 - Nilp
21 - Izzy
17 - Brin
16 - Fea
12 - Sally
08 - Greenie
06 - Shasta
05 - Lari

X'd with Nilp. Ahh, I see.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

You posted just as I finished counting. Looks just about right.

So, adding a personal slant to things (like actual things said in posts, lingering impressions on my mind or lack thereof, etc.), my list of people to watch out for has:

Lari
Shasta
Green
Sally
Fea
Izzy
Gwath

Plus my outstanding suspicion of Kent and Brinn . . . wow, that's more than two-thirds of the village!

At least I'm convinced of Nogrod's innocence (let's see if some will take a hint ) and we have a known innocent in Kuruharan.

Anyone wants to do a post analysis of Lari, Shasta, or Green? Shouldn't be do hard. I'll do Sally.

[Kent2010]

I'm not going to apologize to you Kuru, I think you brought it upon yourself, glad you are innocent, but your suspicions against me are wrong and I thought you were blatantly exaggerating it. That's all, I'll be back after work.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Sally analysis (editor's comment are underlined and emphasised):

DAY 1
233

Calls us slackers and whips us all into shape. Says she will listen to what has been said before deciding who to vote against.

250

Responds to various posts, mostly banter, but comments on the various issues. Says that she'll keep an eye on those hoarding their bonus votes for the endgame. Also, comments on the Gríma discussion, saying that looking for him is about as effective as looking for Pippin. Makes the following comment comment on wolf activity:

Originally Posted by satansaloser2005

True that wolves make an effort to be more consistent, but they don't necessarily succeed, as you point out, and some wolves (like me, when I am a wolf) act even more off the wall than they do when they're ordos, because they know that if they try to control everything they say it is more likely to slip than if they just go with the flow and try to subtly direct the village.

More on her slips later.

258

Has no idea who to kill yet.

Izzy (387) comments on her use of the word 'kill' here, instead of, say, lynch or vote.

262

Say's she'll 'look over Nienna's posts real quick and see what the fuss is about.' Eight minutes later . . .

266

Votes for Nienna, indicating her 'furry potential', her being 'blinking brilliant as a wolf', and generally wariness to leave her alive for long.

DAY 2

401

Says that she has no suspicions, and that she'll abstain from voting for fear of killing an innocent or worse, a gifted. But she'll step in if she 'dislikes the way the vote is going.' Slipetty-slip number three?

412

Banter. Comments on Izzy's vote for her.

415

Post was made after the deadline. More banter.

DAY 3

426

Alonariel = Nienna2? Affirms Kuru is Beren. Says she'll look into why Firefoot was killed, but would like the opinion of others, too.

430

Was interrogated by Kuru re yesterDAY's voting. Affirms that she didn't suspect anyone, but though Kuru wasn't innocent (!?). Didn't find Nog suspicious then.

The fourth sentence of her response to Kuru is quite confusing. If I'm reading it aright . . . slip number four?!

433

Quotes Gwath's answer to Kuru's interrogation, and says she feels the same way. Adds that she didn't like the way the vote was going, and that she was about to vote. But don't worry, the deadline saved you.

439

Comments on Nilp's vote list, thinks that Nilp's purpose with it is to mess with her head. Then she says she's going to bed, with intriguing comments such as fearing being killed at NIGHT and interesting stories to share after the game.

Conclusions:

• Her voting has been rather suspect.
• She has made quite a lot of slips, and some rather curious statements, which probably goes with her being off-the-wall style as a wolf (as she has already indicated).
• But, I am generally suspicious of her anyway.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Bleah. I'm eating supper.

I'll probably be back before the deadline.

[Kuruharan]

I have a proposal to make for our conduct today. I believe that thus far there has not been nearly enough analysis taking place on the part of those of us here. This needs to change if the Villagers are going to avoid suffering a humiliating rout in this game.

So, my proposal is that everyone here needs to offer up a post with their ideas and analysis of every other player here so we can construct some workable theories so we can look at events and be able to say “If X happens then Y must be true or if X doesn’t happen then Z must be true.” We cannot have any more of people being too afraid to vote or voting out of reaction because some other player dared to speculate about them (or being able to say these things and use it as cover). Everyone is going to be speculating about everyone else. The more ideas we get out there on the table now the better. You are all intelligent people and you all have ideas, even if you don’t think you do…go review the thread and develop some. Look at the behavior of other players and share your thoughts about all of them with us. We are flirting with the nether-regions of disaster now, its time for everybody to open up.

Aside from giving us some theories to work from, this level of theorycrafting will put pressure on the wolves because they will be forced to talk too and they will have to do one of two things. They will either have to band more closely together in the things they say, thus making themselves ripe for being wiped out all at once, or they will fragment in some way and one way or another help us kill their fellows to save their own skins. Wolf kills are what we need right now and I am not in the least averse to wolf on wolf violence.

The critical aspect of this plan is that everyone is speculating about everyone else and ideas are discussed as freely as possible. Being dead, I am not going to have many qualms about making people uncomfortable who I don’t believe are contributing. As I said, you are all intelligent people and well capable of developing good ideas that are worth considering and listening to (except, of course, for the wolves who all need to be brutally killed ). Villagers I am only doing it for your own good if I seem to pick on you, we are well on our way to being stomped here if things don’t change. Wolves I am not doing it for your own good because I want you to lose…so please make many mistakes and fall all over each other and generally run around like headless chickens.

Essentially I want a situation where everyone has laid their cards on the table and exposed themselves (get your junior high giggles out of your system now…all done? Good. Moving on.) In this way the village will have clearer ideas of what has happened previously and be better able to act according to what happens in the future thanks to having done some thorough analysis and planning.

As I said, this village is skirting the ragged edge of disaster and is going to have to make some effort to save itself.