WWLVIII: Escape From Angband (or Behavioral Modification)

[Durelin]

So, Nilp...could one of you be a wolf?

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Originally Posted by Durelin

So, Nilp...could one of you be a wolf?

I don't know dear, I haven't asked them all. (I haven't even taken a full census since last year. )

So, anyw--mmph!

*stuffs Nilp in a chest*

Adam! You didn't have to do that!

[Nogrod]

Okey-dokey.

4 against 2 means that we have to get it right toDay, otherwise it's game-over and we lose.

Unless our assassin manages once more to take one duck down on the next Night (theoretically that would make 2/5 chance) leaving the situation toMorrow at 2 against 1.

If we get it right toDay, it will be 3 against 1 toMorrow - or we might even win it straight.

But the problem here is that if we have a cobbler around s/he could aid the ducks in the voting - which could have catastrophic results. So it's even more important now that we innocents stick together with our votes - and heaven forbid there being also something like "true neutrals" here who could vote with a whim... or lovers who protect each other no matter what.

So it will be not only a question of getting it right ToDay but also about voting power and the alignements and loyalties of those special-roles we don't know about.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

They tried to make me go to rehab, but I said "no, no, no."

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

We're just ordinary people,
We don't know which way to go.
Cos we're ordinary people.
Maybe we should take it slow.
Take it slow, slow, slooow . . .

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

But I wish you the best, I guess.
Cos everybody knows that nobody really knows
How to make it work, or how to ease the hurt.
We've heard it all before, that everybody knows
How to make it right, I wish we gave it one more try.

++EVERYONE

One more try . . .

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

I be going, fool's exam be tomorrow, so yeah.

G'night.

[Nogrod]

After a process of elimination of kinds - which I may be forced to explain a little later - I have come to two main candidates for being ducks.

I find Dury the most suspicious right now. Her self-proclaimed status as a duck-tracker sounds the most dubious at the moment. My other top suspect is Lari. Let me tell you why.

Dury announced yesterDay that:

Originally Posted by Dury

I am the "Wolf Tracker". Yes, sounds familiar, eh?

Making a bit too much noise about her having a role comparable to Izzy's "Seer Tracker"? So a nice "symmetrical" role or at least pointing out there being different "trackers" around lending credibility to her revealment? Interestingly enough Izzy was then told being the "Seer's Apprentice"... Which, as Dury rightly remarks, is quite a different thing.

I do not think this is making a mountain out of a molehill. For just why did she pick the term "tracker" to her role? It is possible Sally had given her that term but what a coincidence it then was that Izzy used the same term even if she was "an apprentice" in the first place... but understandable if Dury is faking.

But what initially made me suspect her role was the fact that a duck might pretty easily claim to be a "duck-tracker" as she would have the knowledge of how the numbers went being one of the bunch herself. And there would be some reasons to stick with the truth there as not to make any mistakes - but if she is indeed a duck then we should take those numbers with a pinch of salt.
(She isn't giving us less ducks than there are because there would be at least three of them then and they would have won already - so the question becomes: would she benefit of trying to make us believe there are more ducks there actually are?)

What about her very succesful voting record then? I think the ducks could afford that with their numbers steadily rising - and let's remember: on Day2 it was basically clear Lommy was going to get lynched so she had no good choices; and on Day3 Nienna and Kath were leading the votes together so she had only bad choices there and decided to defend the mother Goose... which would be an obvious choice.


Lari might be the hunter and might be not. The thing that talks on behalf of her being true is the fact that no one else has yet claimed to be a hunter and no hunter has been killed so far. But looking at Sally's list of the roles in this game there is only a "possible hunter" - as there is a "possible werebear", which we didn't have either.

Lari's problem with me sure is her voting record of going against our successful lynches quite consistently and avoiding discussion somewhat as to not show her cards (I need to check if my feeling of the last point about avoiding discussion indeed holds, when I have time).


Uh-oh. Just saw Nilp's vote... He is no duck as we know but let's hope now he is indeed the cobbler (if there is one left). *crosses fingers*

[Nogrod]

Possibly a minor detail to add... but something worth noticing.

Originally Posted by Dury in her revelation

All I can know is how many wolves there are at a given time. Why would that be useful? Because the numbers in the flock were indeed changing.

Now why would you need to defend the possibility or believability of your role? Why did you feel the need to make us think your role is useful - or give us reasons why Sally would have come up with such a role?

If one is a duck-tracker then one is a duck-tracker and the raison d'être for that role is that Sally had made it such. But if one is coming up with a role oneself one might feel the need to explain why that kind of role is possible or believable.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Nog

Making a bit too much noise about her having a role comparable to Izzy's "Seer Tracker"?

Oh yes, a comment because Izzy had just revealed earlier that Day and claimed a similar name is a lot of noise. I was wondering if she knew about my role or if the mods simply gave similar names...but apparently 'tis not the case.

Originally Posted by Nog

But what initially made me suspect her role was the fact that a duck might pretty easily claim to be a "duck-tracker" as she would have the knowledge of how the numbers went being one of the bunch herself.

Ah yes, of course. I guess I can't argue with that. But, I'm not a duck. And if I was a duck with knowledge of how my flock changed in size, I wouldn't share it when everyone else was ready to assume there were fewer wolves and they couldn't be among the seer dreams and such...especially since I think that there probably is now at least one wolf among those dreamed.

Originally Posted by Nog

Now why would you need to defend the possibility or believability of your role?

I was explaining my role, Noggie, dear. And yes, I was playing Captain Obvious - it was what went through my head when I first received the role. Why would just knowing how many wolves there are be useful? Well, if that number actually changes of course. Then I was like, uh oh. Okay, I'll stop now.

Also, in this game (and right now is proof), if you're nothing straightforward you do rather have to defend your role unfortunately.

Originally Posted by Nog

After a process of elimination of kinds - which I may be forced to explain a little later

Yes. Hows about you reveal what's special about you and we see if we believe you?

What I wonder is why you were so ready to believe me yesterDay and retaliate against Mac. I suppose it's about the vague "process of elimination" you suggest. This game isn't that straightforward and you know it.

I don't want to waste too much time defending myself toDay (hah, yes, I know...after that post?). And it is a waste.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Nilp

++EVERYONE

I do wonder if that counts. Not that it really does anything.