WWLVIII: Escape From Angband (or Behavioral Modification)

[Macalaure]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Watching/wondering.

Problem is, if duck flock expands, anything village used to know doesn't matter.

Not anything, and that's what we should focus on now.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Macalaure

Not anything, and that's what we should focus on now.

Problem is, losing Ranger means loss of safety net. Gifteds with knowledge reveal, gifteds die and innocents die. Not all at once, but one by one. No hope. Gifteds a little more hesitant to divulge information, when a little silence gives opportunity to find out more before certain death. You see?

Ranger dying weighs prudence of open talk. Concept of chatter found wanting.

Obviously ducks don't see seer, or seer dies. Good news. Take advantage. Leave hints. Don't talk. No Brinniel to help your cause.

Hard to focus when, ideally, the Day is spent looking away from.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Also, with potential expanding flock, knowledge gleaned by non-ducks might prove outdated. Say dream happens Night One, change happens Night Two. Knowledge gone. No certainty. Sally rules with rubber fist.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Still concerned about Nilp.

No longer concerned about Rikae. Never really was. Willing to watch her work. Could be cobbler, of course. Always an option. One never knows for sure.

Wondering much about Mith. Still alive? Thought of her last night. Stopped thinking, assuming death. Save effort by nothing worrying about lost cause. Except: still alive. Worrisome.

Nog still skin-toned to me. Not right, necessarily, but reasonable.

No longer sure of Lari. Never was sure, just guessed. Not sure at all. Concerned. Always concerned.

Durelin. Getting to point of narrowing down options. Right only because other is wrong. Effective, but unsatisfying. Durelin eludes me. Always does.

Would vote Nerwen. Days pass, more concerned. But perhaps just attributable to lols. I do not lol.

Would vote Izzy. Less certainty even than Nerwen.

Gwath still ochre. Very, very ochre. Would vote Gwath. If all were ducks, game would end. Not all ducks. But enough? Wish I knew how many ducks. Or non-duck evils.

Kath and Mac. No lols, only headdesks. Wish I had a lol.

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by Gwathagor

Good, we're on the same page then. I was reckoning about five myself.

I was thinking five for a flying V.

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Hard to focus when, ideally, the Day is spent looking away from.

There's something there but I don't know what it is right now.

The Ranger being dead is not good. If anything it will make what other gifteds we have more likely to not revel now. Such as if the Seer knew how many other wolves/ducks there are and knew who they were. And that senario works if there is more than two more ducks/wolves.

I'm tending to be leaning towards the confused end of things. I know I don't like what Nilp is doing but I can't think of why he would...no I can actually. I just realized why Nilp would want to die, but he would have to be sure of something.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

I can actually. I just realized why Nilp would want to die, but he would have to be sure of something.

Except.

No certainty, but definitely, "Except-"

[Nogrod]

I do agree that we have been stupendously succesful of late. That success could be explained more easily if we had a host of ducks around - so our great killing-rate might be telling us more of our doom... and thinking about it now, would Sally make a game where the ducks wouldn't win?

But I find it really hard to believe in the Fibonacci Sequence stuff. That would be totally inbalanced for if the ducks ever reached five the game would be practically over and depending on the initial number of ducks that could be really soon.

How to get rid of five "Fibonacci-ducks" in a village of twelve?

Lynch one toDay; ducks down to four (no increase the next Night) - theoretically may require six correctly placed innocent votes out of seven existing (and the role of the cobblers here?) - anyway: even if the ducks don't make a mass vote you can see the chances we have here as all the inocents should really come together in the voting.

(It's indeed intersting - looking it from this angle - that the ducks actually voted as a team on Day2! So they knew they could afford it?)

Back to the scenario. One innocent dies the next Night so toMorrow we have four ducks and six non-ducks. Could take five innocent votes out of six possible. The problem: a successful lynch brings the number of ducks down to three which means there would be five the next Day - against three innocents. Game over. Failing tomorrow would make the same result with four against four the next Morning.

Moreover, a double-kill toDay would make them five toMorrow - against five. Game over.

So let's hope they are not five...

If they are three now, they will be five toMorrow - game over as well.

So we're at these dire straits even if we have performed extremely well - three Days & three ducks killed.

If the Fibonacci Sequence is the way the ducks go we'll just have to cross our fingers and hope for our specials to rescue us.

Let's not lose hope. And really it was Nilp who made the Fibonacci-hint...

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

++NILP

My mind is willing to be changed.

[Nogrod]

I hope you change your mind Fea as I'm willing to declare Nilp a cobbler. See how he is distracting our heads and successfully barring any real discussion - myself the foremost - as I seem to not be able to think of anything else now but different Fibonacci-scenarios...

And anyway the way he begs to be lynched doesn't feel right. If he's the phantom's aprrentice's "dark side" we probably really should avoid lynching him. The good-killer role was triggered by a Night-killing attempt so the bad-killer role should be triggered by a lynch.

So Nilp is a cobbler or a demonical killler waiting to be triggered by our attempt to kill him. In both cases lynching him would be a bad idea. I may be wrong though but I'm not sure I'm ready to suggest taking the risk of finding it out.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Okay.

--NILP

Fair argument.

So my not-votes are, Me, Nog, Rikae, Nilp.

Nog... Mith?

Worrisome. No idea what to think.

[Nogrod]

Originally Posted by Feanor of the Peredhil

Nog... Mith?
Worrisome. No idea what to think.

That's a good question. Maybe the ducks know things we don't - like Mith can't be killed by Night any more as she is Gandalf the White, the flashing light; or if they learned about Brinn being the ranger and made killing her their priority as they would have basically free kills after that (unless there are more very-very-special roles on the good side); or something?

I do think the evidence points heavily towards Mith being the phantom's apprentice and it's hard for me to see her role being other than benevolent (add there also all those Gandalf-hints in the narration).

I'll need to go now but I will come back after a few hours for another sit with this game.

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Seriously.

Fine.

My burning house/pitcher of water analogy still stands, now I know why you won't do the obvious thing--you're thinking of buying a fire extinguisher.

I can't believe this village . . .

[Rikae]

Clever boy, Bubbles. Teeheehee....

But you know, what'ever Mith is, we have to get rid of her. That's becoming increasingly obvious. Do we have enough votes to do it?

How openly can we speak?

As an alternative, we could always lynch Nogrod.

[Durelin]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

I do think the evidence points heavily towards Mith being the phantom's apprentice

But what evidence is there other than her suggesting she is? The duck (ducks only if you count her suggestions that Nienna was a duck and if wilwa was killed by the phantom's apprentice and if she is the pa...) she claims to have 'delivered' to us were suspected and lynched based on suspicion unless there is more going on behind the scenes than I know of...well I know there is but I don't think everyone who voted for Lommy and Nienna knew they were wolves or voted for them on Mith's orders.

Originally Posted by Gwath

Mith - Phantom's apprentice, I think. Why else would she still be alive?

Do you know something we (or at least I) don't? If she's what she claims to be, a wolf delivery system, then wouldn't the wolves want her dead?

Maybe they did think/know that they couldn't kill her. I don't know. And I wonder why some people seem to.

Originally Posted by Mith

Everyone has their own agenda.... I think mine shall now be to be amuse the Modesses but it will have to be later now....

Are you done 'delivering' ducks then?

Originally Posted by Nog

So Nilp is a cobbler or a demonical killler waiting to be triggered by our attempt to kill him.

I'm a bit more open-minded than that. It's Nilp. He's good at getting you to 'ignore' him until he's the last one standing.

A possibility is that he is actually a day hunter (will be able to hunt the person of his choice when he is lynched). The question is if he is on our side or not.

He does still seem to be claiming here and there that he is the phantom's apprentice, though.

Really I would not mind getting rid of Nilp or Rikae because I'm not sure if we can remain sane with both of them around.

Lari seems the most straight-forwardly wolfish to me in her cautious behavior and her voting record. This is hardly a straight-forward game but I'm not sure what else to go on.

Nogrod is just naturally starting to bother me, I'm afraid. Really I am all for lynching him and Mac for taking the fibonacci sequence thing and running with it...especially since you then declare in your next post, Nog, that Nilp is probably just a cobbler.

I'm not sure why Fea chose to use her retraction so quickly. Boredom, I guess?

Really need to go do some work...argh.

Edit: crossed with Nilp, Rikae, Fea

[Gwathagor]

Suspicious
Rikae - Cobblerish for sure
Nilp - Duck impersonating a cobbler? That's my guess, anyway
Kath - Duckish

Less Suspicious
Nerwen - A duck would have been more careful with her votes on Days 1 and 2
Lariren - Not as sure about Lariren, could be a wereduck who's been lying low
Durelin - Her vote was instrumental in lynching Nienna; may have been a duck-on-duck, but I think not
Izzy - I'm not sure, but she feels innocent to me

Least Suspicious
Mith - Phantom's apprentice, I think. Why else would she still be alive?
Nogrod
Fea
Mac

[Mithalwen]

Originally Posted by Nogrod

So Nilp is a cobbler or a demonical killler waiting to be triggered by our attempt to kill him. In both cases lynching him would be a bad idea. I may be wrong though but I'm not sure I'm ready to suggest taking the risk of finding it out.

Or Nilp could simply be protecting his mother. But I need to look up this fibonnacci thing..I didn't get beyong fib...

[Nilpaurion Felagund]

Don't worry, dear, I haven't hurt you.

Oh, and mother, the Fibonacci thing was nothing, I just wanted one more vote.

[Nogrod]

Sally, could we make a triple-lynch? Just toDay? Please!

These specials are making me crazy with their multi-layered scheming!

[Rikae]

Yay! Triple lynch!