Tol-in-Gaurhoth LVII - Chess Game for Middle Earth: Game Thread

[Mirandir]

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

I am making no sense tonight, not even to myself!

Of course I don't know if that first statement in the post above is true or not. Statistically it's rather invalid, as it was only a sample of three--it was just a useful way of thinking about it.

And here I was about to jump down your throat as to how you could possibly be so sure of that.

[Mnemosyne]

Originally Posted by Mira

And here I was about to jump down your throat as to how you could possibly be so sure of that.

...Yeah, realized that 10 seconds after I'd made that first post.

[wilwarin538]

Alrighty, I'm back and I have re-read everything! Wow. K, so here's my list, with a rating from 1-10 (1 being snow white innocent, 10 being pitch black guilty, in my eyes), it has changed a lot from yesterDay, just cause I hadn't been as thorough yesterDay, so here it is:

Mirandir: Didn't say too much so she makes me uneasy, I find it interesting that she kept up so well with the vote tallys and yet wasn't able to vote. 8

Durelin: Not much to go on I find, so she too makes me a bit uneasy, I'm willing to hold off a bit though on her. 6

Fea: Is Fea, so I will wait til later to try and sort out exactly how I feel, so I can see more from her. 5

Izzy: Not really getting any negative vibes from her, so I'm gonna go with thinking innocent for now. 3

the phantom: He seems normal tp to me, so yet another neutral for me. 5

Brinn: I didn't like her yesterDay, but I'll admit I hadn't read her posts thoroughly, after re-reading them a bit I've come to be more comfortable with her, even though her vote did bring Gwath into the tie, but still don't see anything too baddie from her for now. 3

Sally: not much substance from her I find, but according to what people have said about her that's normal for her, so I don't really know, though my gut doesn't like her. 7

Lariren: I find she goes in circles a bit, seems to be tip-toeing and agreeing. So she makes me a bit unsure, but not necessarily all out suspicious. 6

Rikae: I'm fairly comfortable with her so far, I haven't seen anything suspicious. 3

Eonwe: Still don't like him very much, but he said he wouldn't be aroud toDay so I don't think I'll be voting for him again. 7

Nogrod: Talks alot, that makes me just as uneasy as the ones who never post. So I really don't know yet, I'll need to read all his many posts one more time to really get a feel, but so far not liking it. 6

Originally Posted by Mnemosyne

And I'm really quite miffed that it was Gwath who got the tie, even though he looked vaguely suspicious for jumping on Nog's reasoning like that. I considered retracting to put him in the lead after that flurry of crosspost votes, but couldn't do it in good conscience since he was giving information and appeared to be nothing more to me than a misguided innocent.

Mnemo: Because of the above post I really am not feeling good about her. Just something about that little part feels wrong to me, like she's saying "haha I knew he was innocent", just not liking it at all. 8

Kath: Really badly want her to post. 5

Hansy: Seems to be pretty savvy considering this is his first game, uneasy but will let him be toDay unless he says something later on toDay that I don't like. 6

Therefore my possible vote will be for Mira or Mnemo, though Sally is a possibility aswell.

Be back in a couple hours to re-evaluate. Study time.

[satansaloser2005]

Originally Posted by Mirandir

And here I was about to jump down your throat as to how you could possibly be so sure of that.

Well, there's certainly one obvious explanation....


Some ducks do have claws, after all.

[Mnemosyne]

Speaking of explanations, Sally...

*prods*

[Brinniel]

Seeing our numbers already dwindling quickly reminds me of how much I hate when games have two kills per Night. And the fact that three of the baddies are gifted doesn't help. Gah, I'm such a pessimist, but I can't help but think we're at a major disadvantage. If my calculations are correct, we have three Days to catch a werewolf in order to have a chance to win (or maybe four Days if there isn't two kills one Night). So while we will eventually want the cobbler and werebear dead, it's the werewolves we specifically should be concerned about at the moment.

Originally Posted by Fea

Q for Queen, B for Bishop.

Heh, I didn't know that. Up until now, all those letters and numbers were complete gibberish to me. I just don't understand chess. But that's useful to know.

Nerwen looks like she was probably a safe kill, as she didn't say all that much. She only shared her thoughts on three players, then missed the voting. It's a shame she went so soon; a hunter would've been quite dangerous for the baddies later on as she would've had better chances of being accurate and from her posts I'm not sure we can get a good idea of who she could've targeted. It's frustrating to lose a gifted on the second Night, but then again it could've been much worse.

As for Eomer, he could've been a safe kill too since he did not say all that much. His death makes me think that Sally's probably not the werebear. I don't think she would take the risk of killing a player who only discussed and suspected her.

I have nothing else to say for now. It's late, I'm tired, and still need to shower before going to bed. I will probably be off and on most of the Day, though more consistently online towards the end. Which means toDay I shouldn't have to read four pages in one sitting, and hopefully this time my brain will actually be turned on as I think it was turned off up until now. For one thing, I realised in the final moments of yesterDay that I no longer could see any of my main suspects as baddies...a moment of realisation that came much too late. Not that Fea and Eonwe are off the hook, but I think toDay I need to wipe the slate clean and re-examine everyone.

[the phantom]

I promised Gandalf and Sauron that I'd get up early and sweep, wax, and polish the game board. It'll take me quite a while- this place is filthy, blood and guts everywhere! But upon completion I should be able to take a good look at the moves of yesterday and last night and offer up an opinion or two. See you in about nine hours.

*sighs and grabs broom*

[Rikae]

Man - fewer ordos in this game than special roles, now - a strange feeling.

That whole Fea/Nog situation after I went to bed yesterDay was... interesting. So much like last game, I can't help but think there's something planned in it. Nog's case against Fea was maybe slightly better than his anti-Durelin crusade then, but it still seems to me that Fea could very well be innocent, and the way so many jumped to vote for her (or defend her) is just odd. I'm going to take a close look at yesterDay's voting as soon as I have a free moment.

Also, there was something Izzy said yesterDay that gave me the heebie-jeebies (stay tuned for next week's episode...)

I'm surprised no one's mentioned the possibility of Nerwen being killed as a potential gifted yet. When I saw her role, I immediately thought "so that's why she was so jumpy!"

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

but useless until after breakfast.

Then I shall take a look at my notes and try to find anything of value to post.

It's neat, having so many gifteds: instead of ordos who act without information, you can sit and look for people who fit specific role constraints. You might not find anything, but the potential is there.

It's not very useful early in the game, but I'm having fun looking for patterns. Though if my example with Nog is an indicator, maybe I should sit back and wait to be told what to think.

[Lariren Shadow]

So I had a a few things that I was going to look at from yesterDay but then saw that they were explained/in the light of more sleep not as important. I really was going to ask about the Nog and Fea seer thing, but then thought better of it because it was explained already.

As for other things: would Nerwen have been a safe wolf kill because she didn't vote yesterDay?

As for thoughts on why Eomer was chosen: he was making a lot of sense, and sort of sounded like he was playing it safe as a gifted, but then again, I don't know his persona from before, therefore not sure what he would have been like as an ordo/gifted/baddie.

I really have nothing else interesting to say. Later I probably will, mostly because then more people would have posted/I will procrastinate doing work to go through again and see if anything catches my eye.

Edit: X-posted with pre-breakfast Fea.

[Feanor of the Peredhil]

Sorry; got distracted by writing an essay about how video game mentality could solve the world's economic problems. Still haven't eaten...

I'll be around for real later.

[Rikae]

The voting:

#33 Kath for Nerwen:

Originally Posted by Kath

Hey all I'm sorry to do this but my weekend got very busy and the deadline was much earlier than I'd thought! This means that right now is the only chance I have to post toDay.

Therefore I'm going to randomly vote right now because I've read through what there is on the thread and, well, it's hardly helpful in making a decision!

++NERWEN

Because she was the last person to post before

Unlike some, I don't think this looks particularly bad. She's clearly not trying to get Nerwen lynched (later she calls her “thoughtful”) and at this point no one had voiced suspicion toward Nerwen. Casting a random vote for an unhelpful person might look less dangerous, but, in the end, is more likely to start a bandwagon. Now, if she continued playing this way, it would be totally irresponsible, but I expect she won't.

#101:

Fea's vote and infamous comment:

Originally Posted by Fea

eenie meenie miny

++Hansy

Because I'm not in nearly a good enough mood to be nice to newbies for the sheer sake of it, and Nog has a way of saying interesting things on Day One.

Now, when I read this, my first thought was that she was referring to Nog's comment about Hansy being the “greatest cobbler ever”... but supposedly, it's because she thought Nog was seerish. Now, it doesn't really make sense for either an evilie or a goodie to make hints about the seer... but this doesn't really look like that. It looks more like a hint to the supposed seer, as I would expect most people looking at it would think what I did – that she was just agreeing with Nog's reasoning. I don't find it particularly evil.

#102
Durie votes for Sally:

Originally Posted by Durelin

I'm going to go for as random as possible here.

++Sally

Just looking at who has posted, anyway, I picked out her on some sort of gut-reaction thing. The typical excuse. It's like pleading the 5th...my stomach told me to do it!

Yeah, not the best reason, especially where Sally is concerned, but what can you say....

#103

Steve for Gwath

Originally Posted by Steve

I'll just go for a semi-random vote:

++Gwath

Because his 2 posts said nothing at all relevant.

This is pretty weak, and easy – but what's worse, I just realized, is the way Izzy then latches on to it.

#110 -
Eomer for Sally. Known innocent voting for decent reasons... and now I'm starting to wonder whether Sally could be a bluffing werebear, or the werebear attempted to frame her.

#139
Rikae for Steve.

Originally Posted by Rikae

Seems to be talking just to talk. Lots of responses, lots of jokes, very safe... sometimes seems to be talking from the evil perspective (first post). Insubstantial but involved. Looks creepy.

#144

Hansy for Fea

Originally Posted by Hansy

"Revenge vote", I don't think you'll execute a veteran today anyway;

Easy. First vote for Fea. Not horribly evil, but Hansy had better do better than that from now on.

#154

Lari for Nog:

Originally Posted by Lari

I do still have the suspicion that giving a lot of analysis means guilt. And that is stronger in my mind right now than the whole Rikae/Fea thing.

Ok, what? Eh? Lari is new, but she's been around long enough to know how Nog plays Analysis means guilt? *facepalm* That's just what this game needs, more encouragement for under-the-reindeer playing.

#159

Nog for Fea:

Originally Posted by Nog

If you were an innocent and thought I was the seer you would have stayed silent about it.

I can see where Nog is coming from, but I think I have to conclude he's going overboard. That's kind of like him, though, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

#162
Wilwa for Steve.

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Eonwe: (Steve is it?) Voted for Gwath, not sure about him either, posts alot but not necessarily anything concrete, on my list

Originally Posted by Wilwa

Don't want to bring another person into the mix, so between Gwath and Eonwe I will vote for:

++Eonwe

Now, if this had come later, I might have thought it was a baddie trying to avoid the Gwath-wagon, but as it is, it looks innocent enough.

#168

Gwath for Fea. Known innocent following Nog. Indeed, it didn't look too good at the time. Mnemi then proceeds to defend Fea to Gwath. I might have done the same at that point, so I don't think it's suspicious.
Nog, however, starts suspecting Fea's defenders. He seems edgy and jumpy. I would suspect him strongly, if I hadn't seen him get all single-minded like this in other games, too, and turn out innocent.

#196
Izzy for Gwath. It looks rather bad at this point, especially since she admits “it may be your style”. She ties him with Sally and Steve.

#211
Sally for Fea.

Originally Posted by Sally

Her comments earlier were fairly normal for her, but at the same time....bad vibes and all.

Not sure what to make of this. Voting for the leading lynchee because of “bad vibes” looks a little fishy – I can see a “bad vibes” vote early in the day, when there is little to go on, but here?

#215

Mnemi for Steve:

Originally Posted by Mnemi

All right, I don't feel terribly great about this, but

++Eonwe

Although I'm not terribly pleased to have Rikae in the ranks of people who voted for him...

Voting for him because he hasn't said much that's contributed to the game. A bit of Queen-spec (which I rather disagree with), banter, and then a random vote.

Nobody looks terribly suspicious. But while some people make me feel hot and cold, this one makes me feel decidedly lukewarm. I'd much rather lynch an unknown than someone I have some sort of a handle on. And I don't have a handle on anyone regarding Blackishness.

What, am I bringing down the “voted for Steve” property values or something? It's a typical ordo-with-little-to-go-on-Day1 sort of vote, though. (If Fea is evil, Mnemi will deserve a closer look).

#216

tp for Gwath

Originally Posted by tp

Ah, crap. I hate this part. I have nothing against Gwath, Steve, or Sally, but I feel like I need to vote for one of them to save Fea.

Yep, nothing much to say there (except: why Gwath, and not Sally or Steve?)

#217
Brinn for Gwath without comment.

Conclusions:
Sally, Izzy, Steve, Lari, and to some extent, Nog, come out of the voting looking rather nasty. No one (as far as I can see) comes out looking especially nice, and Kath, Durie, and Hansy need to shape up and give decent reasons for their votes in the future *looks stern*.

[Lariren Shadow]

Originally Posted by Rikae

Ok, what? Eh? Lari is new, but she's been around long enough to know how Nog plays Analysis means guilt? *facepalm* That's just what this game needs, more encouragement for under-the-reindeer playing.

I should know better than to defend my vote but...it was the trend in the past few games that those who were evil gave the best analysis. I know I should not base votes on previous games but it seemed the best vote for me at the time.

And done. No more defending.

[wilwarin538]

Well this is iterrible, it's too bad Eomer is gone so soon, he makes the game so interesting, and then Nerwen being the Rook is aweful, don't like the idea that we lost a gifted plus there are all these gifted baddies. Makes me very uneasy.

Don't have a lot to say right now, I've caught up on everything but I'm in a bit of a rush at the moment, I should be back in a few hours to give a new list on my opinions of everyone and such. I've already seen a few things here and there that I don't like, I'll clarify on all that when I get back. Just wanted to let you all know I was around.