T-I-G LVI: Panic at the Prancing Pony

[Lariren Shadow]

He was angry about the bantering and thought that both should be punished. If the wolves/wraiths were thinking really really intricatly then killing Rikae to get him would be a possibility.

He is also yellow on Rikae's chart of colors and it is commented that his fight with Brinn could have been wolf-on-wolf.

Plus Sally did the song "Hey Rune".

[Aganzir]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

If the wolves/wraiths were thinking really really intricatly then killing Rikae to get him would be a possibility.

I can't see how they could think that way. It sounds rather far-fetched.
This comment reminds me pretty much of Brinn's "maybe they killed Nog because they thought he was Frodo" - a slip from the nightly chat.

[Lariren Shadow]

Or I could just be trying to think why Rikae died. And who it might implicate. Which was me trying to fine someone who could be at all connected to her death.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

He was angry about the bantering and thought that both should be punished. If the wolves/wraiths were thinking really really intricatly then killing Rikae to get him would be a possibility.

He is also yellow on Rikae's chart of colors and it is commented that his fight with Brinn could have been wolf-on-wolf.

Plus Sally did the song "Hey Rune".

But that would be a very weird reasoning. And people don't even think about it like that - unless you were the Wolf and thought that, which I now think unlikely, and also, the other Wolf would have to be either Mira or good old Mohandas Karamchand*, which is... well, not completely unlikely, but pretty much on the edge.

I would hope to read something from those folks toDay - and also Menel seems to be away, that's another one I would like to hear, but alas, that has to wait until toMorrow, if I understood correctly to what he said on the admin thread.

* (For those who could be confused, I mean: Beregond. I didn't knew there were Hindus in Minas Tirith anyway - I always thought Ghan-Buri-Ghan was one, if there ever was any such in LotR at all.)

EDIT: x-ed with Agan&Lari

[Lariren Shadow]

Yes I know my logic is horrible and really, at times, only works in my own mind. I come up with more far-fetched things than most do. Simply a theory that I came up with.

And that is good to know about Beregond's nickname. I would also like to put in a new nickname for Miri: Stick.

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Lari

Which either means the wolves/wraiths wanted to implicate him or, like what Greenie said, they thought Mac was protected and went for Rikae.

But that was not what I said - what I said was that according to my logic Mac wasn't protected last Night.

I'll be back to post and vote in a couple of hours, I dearly hope I get some clue as to what to do in the meanwhile...

[Lariren Shadow]

Yes, I think I messed up on the wording. I got through the sentence where you said Mac was protected instead of Lommy and then I think I got confused on the toNight stuff.

This is all also assuming that the Ranger isn't one of the absent few.

[A Little Green]

One more thing - I only just now noticed what Menel posted on the admin thread. That means I won't vote him toDay since it's not fair to vote him before he gets a chance to defend himself against what I accused him of.

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

Plus Sally did the song "Hey Rune".

Many women have sung about me, I am special that way.

Originally Posted by A Little Green

One more thing - I only just now noticed what Menel posted on the admin thread. That means I won't vote him toDay since it's not fair to vote him before he gets a chance to defend himself against what I accused him of.

At this stage in the game I think you should vote for you prime suspect, unless of course there is not chance at all to get them lynched.

So I hope you find another top suspect during this day. . .

---------------

I never really saw my self as being incrimidated by Rikae's death, she never voiced more than a moderate suspicion of me and that is to be expected. Personaly I viewed it as another relatively safe kill.
Why Rikae and not Mac?
Well, there are plenty about who suspects Mac of being Ferny, maybe the wraiths are simply waiting for us to kill him. . .if he is Ferny, then why would they want him dead?
I won't write of the posibility that they might just make sure that they did not vaste a vote, it seems plausible enough. Even if they did not wait with going after Thinlo, but she was the seer and it was worth risking to loose a kill, when the alternative was to let her get an extra dream.

EDIT: Cross posted with Legate

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Rune

At this stage in the game I think you should vote for you prime suspect, unless of course there is not chance at all to get them lynched.

True - but on the other hand I don't want to vote him before he has had a chance to respond because it is possible he has reasonable explanations for what I found wraith-ish about him.

Like I believe I said earlier toDay my guess the two wolves (or at least one) hide among the following four: Lari, Miri, Nerwen and Menel. Since I don't have enough (be it for their innocence or against it) on Miri and Nerwen I wouldn't want to vote either of them. I already said why I won't vote Menel. That would leave Lari, but I don't think I'm comortable with voting her either...


EDIT: x-ed with the Silli of Amon Lanc

[A Little Green]

++ Lari

See reasoning in my earlier posts.

[Aganzir]

I don't have enough energy for a massive analysis so this will do.

I must repost this because I find it amusing.

Originally Posted by Legate

Well, there is still enough of us for the time being.

It would be rather lousy from a Legwolf to make a slip like that so I assume he meant "enough of us innocents."

**
Here's Legate's cobbler talk on day 1.

Originally Posted by Legate

Although it makes little sense, if there are let's say one Wolf and one ordo and the Informer remaining, and they are to vote, the Informer would of course vote for the ordo.

Well figured.

Originally Posted by Legate

No, no, no. If you notice any Ferny, you should just ignore him, because his purpose is to make mess. We should go after the Wraiths, not Ferny.

What Legate is suggesting here is that Ferny should be ignored long, so long his vote actually matters. He should not be paid any attention to, we should just ignore him.

Originally Posted by Legate

Great. So what shall we do with you now, Mac? Especially if the RW's get your name tonight. Which of course, the normal villagers won't know, but if the RW's see "Mac" tonight, they know who their informer is. A great way to do that. Fantastic, as the villagers won't be there to see it, thus have no evidence against you.

This couldn't possibly be any more blatant. First Mac suggested the cobbler could send his own name to the wraiths. Legate was kind of a bit suspicious of him because of it, but said this. It looks like he thought Mac was the cobbler and wanted to ensure he'd do what he had promised to do. It's written in a sarcastic tone, but words like great and fantastic can be interpreted also in another way.

Originally Posted by Legate

Well, but thinking of it, if the Wraiths don't get Mac's name today, then they are clear he is not the Informer. Or from another point of view, if he is not, then the real informer would be silly - after what's been said now - to send Mac's name to the Wraiths. Whereas, great. He could send them his name and they'll be clear.

Here he wants to make sure that if Mac is not the cobbler, the real cobbler doesn't send in his name just for fun.

I didn't even pay attention to these comments when I read them on day 1 but now that I went through Legate's posts, they look really fishy.

**

I wonder what to make of Legate writing twice Barney instead of Barliman. Both times, he was talking about Frodo and "Barney's" ability to tell about xem to the ranger.

Legate suggested that Frodo should not reveal unless xe is under direct threat of dying. That would be a very convenient way for a wolf to react to talks about Frodo's possible reveal.

On day 1 Legate didn't have any idea about sally nor Brinn. He was still wondering about Mac, although he was worried it might become a bandwagon. He voted Mac, only for the Ferny thing.

**

After missing day 2, on day 3, Legate didn't find Brinn suspicious and said sally looked a bit weird at times but he couldn't define her better. He thought Mac could be a wraith, and said that a wolf would like to keep Ferny around as long as possible without overtly defending xem. This of course means Legate can't be a wolf as he's accusing Mac, the likely cobbler.

Originally Posted by Legate, day 3

Anybody cares to tell me what is so suspicious about Brinn, except the fact that she's been a succesful wolf in some of the past games?

Hehe this reminds me of Greenwolf's first game: "Could someone tell me what's so suspicious about morm!?!?!?"

He was a major contributor in Fea's lynching. Also, he's been seemingly convinced Mac was a wraith. He voted for Fea, saying

please, do not attempt to vote somebody else again just for the sake of preventing a bandwaggon against her. We know how it ended yesterDay.

Let's see how the voting looked like then. Legate gave Fea her fourth vote, sally had one. So, in other words: "Don't vote sally, bandwagons are bad and will make me suspect you!"

I'm not even halfway through his posts and I'm getting tired. *goes to make some tea*

I don't like Legate's way of reacting to Lommy's reveal.

Originally Posted by Legate, day 4

And now Lommy says Mac is innocent. Okay.

It's like "Oops, I can't suspect him anymore." However the most interesting thing is that he had been consistently suspicious of Mac being a wraith, but now he didn't even seem to pay a thought to the possibility of him being Ferny. He said Mac looked still horribly sinister, but he was a known innocent now etc.
Okay, he mentioned the idea of Mac being Ferny, but that was probably more due to the general pressure as Rikae and me were quite inclined to think so. He never pursued the idea any further, though.

Legate was also quick to encourage the idea of sally being Frodo. I'm rather sure sally pretended to be the RB just so the real RB wouldn't be looked for, and it was certainly in the wraiths' interests to make us believe she was Frodo. Legate came up with elaborate explanations as to why we should believe sally. Is it too obvious to be wolfish? I don't think so, as back then there was no guarantee her exact role would be revealed to the seer / even in lynching.

Legate has been wrong pretty much and pretty loud, and he's cursed his bad luck in this game several times. Someone said admitting his mistakes made Mac looked more innocent. Legate seems to be trying to do the same.

**

Okay day 5. Legate is calling Mac a known innocent. He's flip-flopping on him quite a lot. A while later he makes wishy-washy statements like sometimes it looks like Mac is Ferny, sometimes not, it's possible he isn't, lynching him should be done very late if at all because the cobbler counts as an ordo &c. So what? It's not going to help us when he can use his vote against us if left alive. According to Legate, the cobbler is not a very big threat unless he knows more than us. What makes you so sure he doesn't? I'm quite convinced the wraiths & Ferny know of each other - they are plain dumb if they haven't found a way to communicate the information that is so important to them.

Legate suggests leaving Mac alive also because he believes he'll be night-killed. I'm not so sure. If Mac is the cobbler, the wolves certainly know about it. It doesn't matter that he's a known so-called innocent. He works as a distraction - see, here we are, talking about him and arguing if he should be lynched, when we should be looking for wolves.

In #757 Legate makes a list. He seems to trust Greeny the most, which I find odd, given that she's probably my best bet for the RB.
It's enough for him that Mac is not a wraith - he's in Legate's I tend to trust category. No it isn't enough! If you trust the cobbler, you trust a person who's deliberately giving false information and twisting things, and therefore contribute to our loss.
Also, the people he's more or less suspicious are Berry (seems like an innocent newbie. Sometimes looks like could be a wolf newbie), Rune (sometimes okay, sometimes a question mark of wolfishness - erm, what do you mean with the question mark of wolfishness?) and Menel (thought he was innocent up until reading Greeny's analysis, now should reevaluate). I find Berry pretty innocentish and I don't really understand where Legate is coming from. Don't understand his reasons for suspecting Rune, either. On the contrary, I think Rune's interaction with Brinn & sally should make him look more innocent. His Menel suspicion is the weirdest of them all, though. It's so convenient. Like "Yeah he looked innocent but now that you say it, Greenie, he could actually be suspicious! I should probably start suspecting him and get him lynched so we'll win!" It's... scary. Okay, I admit Menel looks suspicious, but I'm more worried about Greeny.
One of the reasons I find his list suspicious, though, is that I disagree with it so much. His opinions are almost the opposite to mine so I find it difficult to believe he's innocent.

**

Today Legate suggests that Mac wasn't killed because the wolves thought he was protected. He barely even mentions that he might be alive because he's the cobbler. He also says that Rikae might have been killed to incriminate an innocent Mac, but admits it looks weird. I don't think it matters much that he admitted it himself - he brought it up in the first place, and even if people don't automatically assume it's so, they might subconsciously remember it and feel better about Mac because of it. You know, in the end we are a mindless herd. If someone says something, we're prone to agree with it, and if someone with as much authority as Legate says Mac is innocent, it is not surprising if people start thinking the same.

In his opinion, we don't need to busy ourselves with Ferny yet. Not true. There's so little time left that unless we have very good reasons to assume someone's a wolf tomorrow, we should lynch Mac. Really. Remember this even if I'm not alive tomorrow. Otherwise they are going to win.
There's a long time till tomorrow, says Legate. Nope. It's too close.

Hmm today he was ready to label two of the people he had wondered about yesterday (Berry & Rune) innocent. Also Greenie still seems innocentish to her. Well not to me. Mac "may be a cobbler, but now that aside." I really don't like how he downplays Mac! So, he's left with Mira, me, or Menel being wolves. What do you mean I'm a wolf very often? I haven't been since Dueling Wizards where I did really really lousily.

**

Rikae was the first to suspect Legate even a little. Somehow I wouldn't be very surprised if she had been killed because of it - better to remove a threat as long as it's still small. It would just fit a Legatewolf who wants to survive.

**

As for Legate's connections with the two known wolves... Brinn said she wouldn't vote him on day 1 as he got lynched early last game, sally didn't mention him on her list of players (which was very rough, though, and excluded several other players as well). She didn't plan to vote him, either, though.

On day 2 Brinn said he seemed sensible but careful, sensible could mean evil, nothing particularly suspicious yet would like to keep an eye on him. Watching. Her comment looked like it could be wolf-on-wolf. The same continues on day 3 when Brinn says the tone of his posts is innocentish, but she doesn't really like how quickly he concludes both Fea & Mac are baddies. Still watching.

And that's all until Lommy's reveal. They're keeping a good enough distance and their opinions on each other don't reveal much.

**

Based on this Legate is probably the most suspicious person I can see. He also manages to look quite innocentish at times, what with accusing Mac so strongly, but he's certainly bold enough to sacrifice his fellows and/or the cobbler to ensure his own survival.

The worst things have to do with Mac, though. Legate's cobbler talk on day 1 is outrageously suspicious because it looks so much like he's giving advice to the cobber. Also, the way he treats Mac now is really strange. He's downplaying him all along although he knows Ferny's survival will result in our loss.

**

Okay I'm obsessing about Mac again... Really badly. There's still a chance, however slim, that he is not the cobbler.

I know I've xed a lot, I'll comment on those things soon.

So much for a non-massive analysis...

[Rune Son of Bjarne]

The people that worries me the most right now is Beregond, Nerwen and Menel, all people whom I do not notice in the debates. Not only because they are bereft of internet acces, but also because there is noting that makes my eyes widen in their posts. I would feel best with lynching one of them, but it seems like such an easy and fruitless way out. So from the look of things I will have to make a hard decition and vote for Lari or Mira, which I have at times found wraith-like. Of course I could also vote for Legate, Aganzir or Greenie, but I really need another day to analyse their doings. I think the three of them look good, but I fear it might be like in FotR and that they should look fouler.

[Aganzir]

I try to divide people into just two categories now because I don't think I can afford any more Neithers.

Guilty
Lari. I still think she looks suspicious, and there were also some comments from today I was supposed to say something about. Oh yes her suggestions about why Mac is still alive & that Rikae's death implicates Rune are weird. However I don't know what to make of Legate's attack against her. I could vote for her today, but I'd rather vote Legate or Mac.
Legate. See my above post.
Mac. If you're innocent, let it be known that I'll eat my pretty hat. I'd rather lynch him before he manages to cause any serious harm.

In between
Greenie. She looks suspicious, although only after Frodo was turned. Just doesn't seem honest. Also, Legate finding her innocent doesn't make it any better.
Menel. I think Greenie's points against him were good, but since I'm more suspicious of her, I don't think I can judge him objectively. One of them could well be a wolf, though.

And Mira... Heck I've forgotten about her as I was not supposed to do! I really really don't know. Rikae suspected her quite a lot. I will probably have to do a bit more reading.

Innocent
Berry. Nothing alarming. He's been somewhat quiet lately, though.
Nerwen. I haven't paid much attention to her but she looks quite innocent.
Rune. I don't think he would have attacked a fellow / been attacked by a fellow like that. I won't exclude the possibility of him being Frodo, but actually out of people alive today, he looks the most innocent.

Anyway right now a Legate/Greenie couple seems quite possible to me. I could also vote for Lari... But the fact that both Greenie and Legate suspect her doesn't make me feel too good about it.

**

Originally Posted by Lari

Rune: I know he’s not dead. It was a slip.

Ha! You know he's not dead but you know he's innocent?

Originally Posted by Rune

At this stage in the game I think you should vote for you prime suspect, unless of course there is not chance at all to get them lynched.

Totally agreed. I don't think we can afford to be nice and wait - if you believe someone is a wolf, you should go with xem rather than your second-best suspect.
Unless it's all the same for you who dies.