T-I-G LVI: Panic at the Prancing Pony

[Lariren Shadow]

I'd be up for a chat about the game.

As for who the Ranger could have protected, maybe xe thought about protecting Mac instead, knowing that he's a known innocent. Also would be an easy kill, especially if the wolves/wraiths were inexperienced.

Well, that's not to say that Rikae wouldn't have been an easy kill either, considering her banter with Sally yesterDay.

To be honest I completely forgot that Menel was still here and alive

[Lariren Shadow]

On the random issues of Menel, he supported Brinn as Seer as opposed to Lommy. At least according to Rikae's chart. And I found the post too, where he was thinking that Brinn was a better revel than Lommy. Here

I don't really know what that means, maybe that he's more innocent than not because he thinks that Brinn is on "our side".

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Well, I am here. On one hand, I am quite happy that I don't have to catch up with too many posts, as I feared ("instant posts - five minutes and done!"), however, I must also say that the level of participation does not quite comfort me. But hopefully now something will start to happen, as it usually does in the late afternoon (my time) hours.

First, as for Rikae's death - I am actually quite "happy" for that (well, of course not but relatively speaking), in the sense that I do not have to worry whether she is guilty after all or not. All right, but now our numbers are thinning. What were the possible motives to kill her?

First: why her and not Mac: simple. I find it likely that the Wolves took Mac as being protected toNight, and instead of risking the loss of a kill, they decided to keep him for later and attack somebody else. Also, there's been some controversy (coming mainly from the dead one herself) around Mac being a Cobbler or whatnot, which may have played its role as well.

Which brings me to the second: why Rikae in particular. She looked mostly innocentish to people (although for example, like I said above, I was about to start to doubt about her a bit).

(Another thing I thought of, but it's a bit of a "wild guess", I think, is that it may have been aimed to further incriminate Mac, as to put him as if he were Ferny, being sort of "protected" by the Wolves from Rikae by killing her. But that sounds pretty weird.)

Third thing... I will take a look at her list of suspects from yesterDay, if the Wolves' motives could not have been influenced by that as well (personally I think they might have, quite likely. Let's see).

Back in a while.

[Lariren Shadow]

A list! I'm bored! And don't want to do my homework! I think I can figure out the Marxist view on history by the title.

Known Innocent:
Mac: Which, actually, is not all together true. He could be Ferny because the Seer would have dreamed innocent for him then.

The Newbies:
Miri: I really have no idea on her. She seems honest enough in her posts and her reasons are about as good as mine sometimes. Not saying that means anything but she does seem to be more innocent than guilty.

Beregond(because I honestly forget which nickname we decided on): Has been very active, but then sort of stayed out of things recently. I should check the admin thread incase it was just some sort of RL business but it seems odd. Also voted Mac twice.

People I played with before:
Agan: I really have no idea on her. She seems to do a lot of analysis on other players and seems to be finding things, but I really don’t know about her intentions. She doesn’t strike me as wholly innocent, but I really don’t have that much else on her. She could be completely innocent or could not be.

Menel: Has disappeared. It could be a good way for a wolf/wraith to win. Stay away. And, well, he’s been doing IC posts pretty much the whole time. With the *hics* and such. Not sure what to make of that. And he was for believing Brinn as the Seer.


The other four:
Legate: I really have no idea about him at all. I can’t really read him. I want to say that I found something that points to either his guilt or that he's innocent, but I only get a feeling in his posts. Nothing more than that. He didn’t vote Day 2 and supported Lommy fully for being Seer. This is either very intelligent wolf/wraith behavior or just a really self assured innocent.

Nerwen: Also didn’t vote Day 2. Has been also sort of absent from play. Interestingly enough, at least by using Rikae’s amazing chart, she has the almost the same(difference on how much each supported Lommy) statistics as Legate. Not sure if that means anything more than she just happened to not be able to vote one Day and she thought the first revel was better.

Rune: I know he’s not dead. It was a slip. As for his role, I have no idea. He seemed a little off with his opposition to lynching Fea Day 2 and voted the same way she did. He also picked a fight with Brinn and one with Miri. Either it’s his wolfish/wraithish way of trying to disassociate with the others(though not sure about Miri) or he just likes to do that. Either way I don’t like it.

Greenie/Lily(?): Seems more innocent to me. Apparently Brinn was nonwolfish towards her. I really have nothing much else to say but that I’m sorry if this is a longer post than you would like.

I also don’t think I’ve mentioned how much I want to thank Rikae for the awesome chart. Even though when I saw it I was like “CHART?!” It really helped.

[Mirandir]

All right, I'm here. Shocked (and none too thrilled) to be awake this early on a Sunday, but here. However, I have to go play with clay (oh the difficult life I lead ) and it is Super Bowl Sunday so I probably won't be around much until work later. I'll try to check in periodically though.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

I also don’t think I’ve mentioned how much I want to thank Rikae for the awesome chart. Even though when I saw it I was like “CHART?!” It really helped.

And the sad thing is, I can hear your voice in my head saying it.

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Hmm... Rikae suspected Mira as being an "under-radar-flying" Wolf, saying that she and the known Wolves more or less ignored each other. Fair enough behavior for a newbie Wolf, although - now I don't know what are the specifics of Mira's behavior - but at least from my personal experience, even newbie Wolves tend to know that it is not that good idea not to say anything about other Wolves. Although it's true that Mira is very hardly around at all - or being significant in any more important way.

Then she mentioned Mac, as we know, suspecting him as a Cobbler... but okay, now I am looking for a Wraith, so let's leave that (and otherwise about possible connection of Mac and the kill, see my previous post. To add something to that, or make clear what I also thought of back there: it is possible that the Wolves thought they could get rid of Rikae so that she does not continue her campaign against Mac, if they also thought Mac is a Cobbler. On the other hand, like I said above, it could be a thing the Wolves thought of to incriminate Mac further by making us think exactly what I just said. Though, that would depend on the nature of the Wolves, and actually thinking of it now, the first possibility seems more likely to me. If it played any role at all).

Then she mentions me, but I won't of course comment on that.

Then she mentions some Aganzir... but quite neutral-ishly... anyway... this sort of "neutral" people would have been the best ones to get rid of her (except for Agan that would be Rune, Menel, Lari, let's say), as she does not overtly suspect them (so that they cannot be immediately suspected from targeting her because of wanting to get rid of her so that she does not suspect them anymore), but at the same time, they won't lose that strong vote of somebody who thinks them innocent (as she doesn't mark them as "green" rightaway). It might be very likely for at least one of the Wolves being here, among those - but that of course depends a lot on the mentality of the Wolves as a group (or rather, pair, in the current situation).

Also, one note to those who use Rikae's list - let us not forget that the earlier events listed there from early Days do not affect Frodo: his behavior from first Days might have been innocentish. Frodo is likely somebody who was lying low for the beginning, in hope the Wolves don't notice him, and now he is lying low again, hoping the Innocents don't lynch him (or at least avoiding suspicion, now).

So... interesting in any case. I need to sort my thoughts, but I'd be happy to see anybody around posting.

EDIT: x-ed with Mira

[A Little Green]

Originally Posted by Mr. Leggings

First: why her and not Mac: simple. I find it likely that the Wolves took Mac as being protected toNight, and instead of risking the loss of a kill, they decided to keep him for later and attack somebody else. Also, there's been some controversy (coming mainly from the dead one herself) around Mac being a Cobbler or whatnot, which may have played its role as well.

That sounds reasonable but for one thing - the ranger didn't protect Lommy the night after her reveal, which means basically that s/he assumed the wolves would assume that s/he'd protect Lommy and decide not to attack her. And if they assume they can't get the Seer then who would the wolves target if not Mac the known innocent (unless he's Ferny)? It's quite logical (at least in some sense) that Mac was already protected that Night which would leave him defenceless last Night. That, in turn, leads to the question of why he was not killed toNight since the wolves (if they reason the way I do) had reason to assume he was not being protected last Night.

According to this logic, it looks very possible that Mac is Ferny. I don't know - he hasn't seemed like that to me. Then, of course, it's possible that the wolves do not reason the way I do or else that my reasoning is faulty in some way.


EDIT: x-ed with Miri and Leggy

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by A Little Green

According to this logic, it looks very possible that Mac is Ferny. I don't know - he hasn't seemed like that to me. Then, of course, it's possible that the wolves do not reason the way I do or else that my reasoning is faulty in some way.

Or that they would expect you to think the way you do, and do that to incriminate Mac in your eyes, like I said. But yes, both of these are possible. For myself, I can't say for sure which of these alternatives is more likely.

All right. I have looked through the posts of Rune and Nerwen and overall, those two seem to me as innocent. Or at least on the earlier Days (some Frodo here is not impossible, although I won't see Rune as Frodo either. Nerwen, perhaps...)

I will probably try to continue with looking on people's older posts...

EDIT: x-ed with Agan

[Lariren Shadow]

There is also the possiblity that Rikae's death sort of implicates Rune(for those of us who also look at the admin thread). Which either means the wolves/wraiths wanted to implicate him or, like what Greenie said, they thought Mac was protected and went for Rikae. Also, they could have been thinking that Rikae was going to die today anyway(some people might have been miffed by the conversation last night and wanted to lynch her on purpose)...I honestly have no idea where this thought was going.

Anyway, there's no harm in looking at Rikae's chart for clues. But there is a higher probablity that a wolf/wraith is considered more innocent by her than not.

Edit: x-posted since 931

[Legate of Amon Lanc]

Originally Posted by Aganzir

But we don't have enough time to ignore the cobbler! If we don't lynch a wraith or Ferny today or tomorrow, they're probably going to win.

I know that. But I hope us to get a Wraith now. There's a long time yet till tomorrow.

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

There is also the possiblity that Rikae's death sort of implicates Rune(for those of us who also look at the admin thread).

Why?

[Beregond]

Originally Posted by Lariren Shadow

Beregond(because I honestly forget which nickname we decided on): Has been very active, but then sort of stayed out of things recently. I should check the admin thread incase it was just some sort of RL business but it seems odd. Also voted Mac twice.

Yeah, it's RL work and play, not wraith work.

Hope to catch up later this afternoon and tonight - I sincerely apologize. And I didn't think to write anything in the admin thread.